NewEra Posted April 28, 2022 Posted April 28, 2022 18 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said: There is no place to read it because it’s my own doing. As far as I know the three metrics being used together hasn’t been done anywhere online. It’s only happened a handful of times. It’s not a large sample size. It’s elite company. But you don't have ANY examples of players with Hall-like metrics that have succeeded for failed? its just a very shallow explanation that doesn't compel me to believe you. no offense considering that you have done some research, i'm sure you wouldve come up with at least 5 examples of players that excelled and 5 that did not. without any names at all, its tough to sell the data 2
Andrew Son Posted April 28, 2022 Posted April 28, 2022 1 minute ago, IronMaidenBills said: It’s a category where only the freakiest of athletes are found. Of course it’s going to be a small sample size. AP, JT, Edgerrin, and Sanders is great club to be in. Only Tevin Coleman is the outlier. So you're saying he has a 20% chance of busting?
Shaw66 Posted April 28, 2022 Posted April 28, 2022 1 hour ago, SCBills said: I'm trying to figure out why he doesn't look like the RB his testing/results seem he is.. Is it as simple as ISU's uniforms are trash and BIG XII tier 2 telecasts are awful quality? Because he's running away from people, but doesn't look like a 4.39 guy. The tape just doesn't look explosive, yet his track record has him doing explosive things. I never watched him live, but when I watched Najee or Etienne, I saw explosiveness. Najee hurdling people and Etienne's absurd acceleration. Also Bama/Clemson games are top tier quality broadcasts almost every time. Breece Hall does look incredibly fluid as a receiiving option, and if teams are going to give us RB checkdowns all game, Breece Hall looks like the type of guy to make them regret doing that. To me, he looks like a 3 down back, with top tier receiving skills and 4.39 speed. If we go that route at 25, i'll question the asset allocation of a RD1 RB, but would definitely be excited about what he brings to the offense. You describe very well what I see. I don't see an explosive guy, but an extremely dependable guy on all three downs. In fact, I see his as a better Singletary - all round back, but Hall is better in almost every category. Actually, that's the kind of profile that McDermott likes - give me a guy who's just good at everything. (I think of Hyde and Poyer and White like that. And Davis.) So, yeah, I'd be happy to add him. I think we all get hung up on this first round, second round thing. Fact is, where the Bills are picking, there's not a huge difference in the talent that we thing of as second round talent. So, taking him at 25, although technically first round, doesn't bother me. Top 15 is what would bother me for any running back. That is a misspent pick. Best news I ever heard was that the Giants were locked in on Saquon. Dumbest move, ever, with Eli on the verge or retirement.
Milanos Milano Posted April 28, 2022 Author Posted April 28, 2022 1 minute ago, SWATeam said: So you're saying he has a 20% chance of busting? Yeah, which is lower than most of the other spots where RB is taken. I’d rather take my chances given the elite club Hall belongs to.
LeGOATski Posted April 28, 2022 Posted April 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, SWATeam said: So you're saying he has a 20% chance of busting? Analytics?
Shaw66 Posted April 28, 2022 Posted April 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said: 15 more pages to go! Cmon only a few hours left, dont let me down! I've posted two or three times. Have I done my part? 1 1 1
Milanos Milano Posted April 28, 2022 Author Posted April 28, 2022 (edited) 10 minutes ago, LeGOATski said: Analytics? Yes. You are either getting Barry Sanders, AP, JT, Edgerrin James, Eteniene(hurt) or Tevin Coleman. I like my chances. Edited April 28, 2022 by IronMaidenBills 1 1
LeGOATski Posted April 28, 2022 Posted April 28, 2022 Just now, IronMaidenBills said: Yes. You are either getting Barry Sanders, AP, JT, Edgerrin James, Barkely(hurt), or Tevin Coleman. I like my chances. You're not getting any of those guys. You're 100% getting Breece Hall. 2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: I've posted two or three times. Have I done my part? Only if you've replied at least once to IronMaidenBills
Milanos Milano Posted April 28, 2022 Author Posted April 28, 2022 1 minute ago, LeGOATski said: You're not getting any of those guys. You're 100% getting Breece Hall. Only if you've replied at least once to IronMaidenBills Of course you are getting Breece Hall, but chances are high we get at least 3 seasons of great production and maybe even a HOF candidate. Sign me up. 1
SoMAn Posted April 28, 2022 Posted April 28, 2022 1 hour ago, inaugural balls said: I’m all for providing weapons to the offense - even at RB. Though using our 1st overall on one isn’t my cup of tea. Go Bills!! If the Bills had a lot of holes to fill I'd agree about using a 1st round pick on a RB. The consensus has been to pick WR or CB. We have 3 pretty good receivers and a couple in the wings (Hodgins and Stevenson) that may still pan out. You could make an argument for CB, but we expect to get White back sooner than later. As I stated in a previous thread, the Bills went 5-3 after White went down (not even counting the win in that Saints game). 1 of those losses being the wind bowl at home against Pats, and the other 2 OT losses against the previous 2 superbowl winners, TB and KC. I don't see CB being as dire a need as some believe. Although some great RBs have lasted past round 1 in recent years, you run the risk of settling for another Moss or Singletary. Decent enough backs, but no opposing team is working overtime to figure out how to stop them. I'd love to see a RB in the backfield that is a weapon to be feared. Whatever the Bills do, I have complete trust in Beane and the personnel dept. so I'll be happy with any path they choose. 1
Milanos Milano Posted April 28, 2022 Author Posted April 28, 2022 I take that back. Barkley didn’t meet the qualifications.
Ed_Formerly_of_Roch Posted April 28, 2022 Posted April 28, 2022 31 minutes ago, muppy said: thank you for this. My thinking was that since (at least to me) it appears like this past offseason was done to fill holes through free agency that the few pieces of the roster that need shoring up would be a top tier guy , best player available on their draft board, to help the team this year. As well as shore up with guys to develop. But the roster top to bottom seems pretty stacked with exception of the CB and OL..imo less WR and RB......what I DO know is about half or less of what the decision makers at 1bd do. I do trust their judgment and their process bottom line. Its clearly fun to conjecture. Agree with you on CB, but it's been pointed out the McD and Beane going all the way back to their Carolina days have never used, think it was higher than a 3rd round pick on a #2 CB. Only thing that changes it just a little this season is White being hurt. But if they never drafted a #2 CB above round 3 prior, gives me doubt they'll do it now.
Milanos Milano Posted April 28, 2022 Author Posted April 28, 2022 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said: Don’t stop Billieving! Hold on to that feeling. Edited April 28, 2022 by IronMaidenBills
LabattBlue Posted April 28, 2022 Posted April 28, 2022 (edited) 43 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said: 15 more pages to go! Cmon only a few hours left, dont let me down! I miss the feature of previous versions of software, where you could click on post total for a thread and see how many posts each member has “contributed” to the thread. Would love to see the breakdown for this trainwreck. 😂 Edited April 28, 2022 by BTB 2
muppy Posted April 28, 2022 Posted April 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said: Agree with you on CB, but it's been pointed out the McD and Beane going all the way back to their Carolina days have never used, think it was higher than a 3rd round pick on a #2 CB. Only thing that changes it just a little this season is White being hurt. But if they never drafted a #2 CB above round 3 prior, gives me doubt they'll do it now. the recovery of Tre White is indeed the rub. They will I think hope for the best, and prepare for a delay of his return. That's an unknown variable. Good insight on their past drafting history. appreciate that. .......we'll see what happens 🙂
Shaw66 Posted April 28, 2022 Posted April 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said: Of course you are getting Breece Hall, but chances are high we get at least 3 seasons of great production and maybe even a HOF candidate. Sign me up. Okay, I'll do my part. The chances are NOT high that the Bills will get three great years out of this guy. You simply cannot prove that, particularly when your proof is essentially one data point compared to one data point for a bunch of other guys. You may be right, but his probability of success is not nearly as high as you'd have us believe. I was in a discussion yesterday about Williamson. Someone told me to watch a discussion of talking heads about how could he is. They said top 4 in the draft, absolutely. I looked at video of Williamson playing. You know what I saw? Sammy Watkins. I don't care what measureables the guy has, nobody is going to convince me on stats that the guy is about to become an all-time great receiver. And you are not going to convince on a stat that Hall is Edgerrin James. I watch the Hall highlights and ask myself this question: Is this guy as good as Dalvin Cook? To my eyes, no, and the guy is playing against Big 12 (or whatever conference) talent. 1
mrags Posted April 28, 2022 Posted April 28, 2022 22 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said: 15 more pages to go! Cmon only a few hours left, dont let me down! Just here now to add to this thread. Let’s go 100. 2
NewEra Posted April 28, 2022 Posted April 28, 2022 15 minutes ago, IronMaidenBills said: Yes. You are either getting Barry Sanders, AP, JT, Edgerrin James, Eteniene(hurt) or Tevin Coleman. I like my chances. Ok, those those are the ONLY guys that qualify according to your metrics? Or are there others players? You’ve done compressive research or just did some skimming? again, not coming down on you, just trying to understand fully.
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