Breece Hall Please!!

[mrags]

4 hours ago, Magox said:

Very interesting perspective from Albright, essentially making the case that choosing a first round RB is not as bad of a move as once thought of.  Saying that you can pick up the fifth year option, franchise him after and you can have 6 good years which is their typical shelf life with a relatively low cost.

 

It’s all part of the new analytics way of thinking about it.

 

 

Been saying this for weeks and somehow nobody wants to acknowledge it. 

[RocCityRoller]

58 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

I would prefer Zion Johnson myself at 25 but I'm not going to complain if they take Hall.   It may be a moot point anyway since most of the recent mock drafts have both Zion and the other outstanding center, Tyler Linderbaum, off the board before 25.

 

Count me in on the OL train too. I think it is way past time to put some long term fixes there. McBeane was talking about protecting their franchise and having him take less hits. OL and RB are investments that do that.

 

I was big on Linderbaum, but his smaller size concerns me. It is C or bust with him because of it, and he needs to be in the right scheme.

Zion Johnson would be cool.  Getting the #1 or #2 OG at 25 and plugging in a potential 10yr starter/ Pro Bowler at 25 seems like a good decision to me in a draft like this.

 

How do you feel about OG Kenyon Green, or OT Trevor Penning? I see them available a lot in Mocks and Sims.

 

RB in the first wouldn't surprise me though. Hall or Walker III should be productive RB #1 in the league for a while.

[Milanos Milano]

Usually if a RB has 2/3 of the attributes. RAS above 8. 2 years of great college production 1k+ , and a 4.45 40 time or better, they will have a decent NFL career. Usually RBs that don’t have it don’t work out very well. Alvin Kamara is my biggest outlier. 

[mrags]

4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

It's really not part of the new analytics. 

 

That's just bad math.

 

If the RB plays well enough in his first 3 seasons to be worth of the fully guaranteed, pricey 5th year option(for a RB).........or heaven forbid, the franchise tag..........then they will likely be withholding services after year 3 to FORCE a new contract.

 

See Zeke Elliott or Christian McCaffrey.........two tears of regret into the pillow of remorse. 

 

So ideally..........I guess you need that 1st round RB to play just well enough in his first 3 seasons to not have any leverage to hold out.

 

You know.........like Devin Singletary.

 

4.5-5 yards per carry but only about 800 or so yards rushing........just south of the 1,000 magic number.

 

 

However based on your argument, If literally any single player at any position in the entire NFL plays really well in the first 2 seasons, they will do the same exact thing that claim a RB would do. And the fact is still that RBs make significantly less than just about any position in the league that isn’t a kicker or punter. 
 

not to mention, if your RB is truly doing that well that he holds out for a bigger contract, then he’s probably on his way to and extremely great career. God forbid we sign a player that playing really great and making differences on the field. Or maybe when he becomes so well and a problem, you just trade him to another team and get draft picks for him. The possibilities are endless. 

[Aussie Joe]

Joe Marino is not a fan...

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

10 minutes ago, muppy said:

so I guess drafting Thurman Thomas in 1988 having fallen to the 2nd round was a regrettable move also...NOT. Remember that long embarrassing wait he endured because he by all accounts  was expected to have been drafted earlier in the draft  First round.......surprising drop out of the first due to knee concerns,,,,,,. It was one example that came to mind to refute your point.  #34 wasn't technically a first round choice but IMO his selection was proven Very valuable. As far as 30 years........... well my example is just outside of that he having been drafted in 1988. But my basic point remains the same

 

You say stuff like "obviously stupid" you are stating your opinion as a fact along with it calling everyone that doesnt agree with you stupid. Again, Disagree.

 

m

 

 

 

 

The 80's were more than 30 years ago and pre-free agency altogether..........which was a significant turning point for the running game because teams could no longer keep offensive lines and RB's together in perpetuity.

 

Your specific RB was much more important in the 1980's.........and still Thurman Thomas becoming the MVP as a second round pick was part of the gradual realization that you really didn't have to use first round picks on RB's even THEN.

 

That gradually evolved throughout the 90's..........culminating with the Broncos turning Terrell Davis into a 6th round HOF'er and subsequently marching out a parade of JAGs and having them rush for 1,000+ yards every year in the Shanahan outside zone system (that some people think is new).

 

Right around the turn of the century was the end of the association between great backs and great teams.

 

I think either Davis or Marshall Faulk are the last RB's to lead the league in rushing and play on the SB winner.    

 

That used to be pretty common.

 

So it became a two-fold issue.........you could find good enough ones anywhere in the draft...........and having the best ones really didn't help you  win championships any longer.

 

When Goodell really opened up the passing game with rules changes in 2010..........RB's became even less important.

 

[Milanos Milano]

1 minute ago, Aussie Joe said:

Joe Marino is not a fan...

 

 

He also wasn’t a fan of Josh Allen. I let the RAS, 2 years of production, and a 4.45 or lower 40 time do the talking. Statistically Breece Hall should have at least 3 season of 1,000 yards or more in the NFL if he remains healthy. It’s like a 80%+ guarantee. Not many other metrics out there have better success odds that predict good outcomes. 

[Logic]

Daniel Jeremiah has just released his final mock draft, which has the Bills taking...

 

Breece Hall

 

[Milanos Milano]

1 minute ago, Logic said:

Daniel Jeremiah has just released his final mock draft, which has the Bills taking...

 

Breece Hall

 

This coupled with the Vegas betting odds and someone must know something. Vegas rarely misses. 

[BADOLBILZ]

13 minutes ago, mrags said:

This reason alone makes me want to draft Hall in the first round. Maybe we can drive Schoop insane to the point that he jumps off a bridge. 

 

 

Schopp is saying he would love it because it makes their shows so easy to do and more popular to listen to when people are angry and disillusioned.

 

Controversy = ratings and the back and forth makes him "feel alive".

 

Drafting Breece Hall is job security for Schopp.  

 

It's true..........he and Boston sports fan Lap Dog will probably get extensions and raises.

 

Good drafting has been bad for business in drive time. 

[mrags]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

If the Bills draft Breece Hall, will his official draft pick thread end up shorter than this one?

It will be ongoing for the rest of his career. Might make a new record for longest ongoing thread. Every single play he’s ever been on the field for will be critiqued. 

[BADOLBILZ]

13 minutes ago, mrags said:

However based on your argument, If literally any single player at any position in the entire NFL plays really well in the first 2 seasons, they will do the same exact thing that claim a RB would do. And the fact is still that RBs make significantly less than just about any position in the league that isn’t a kicker or punter. 
 

not to mention, if your RB is truly doing that well that he holds out for a bigger contract, then he’s probably on his way to and extremely great career. God forbid we sign a player that playing really great and making differences on the field. Or maybe when he becomes so well and a problem, you just trade him to another team and get draft picks for him. The possibilities are endless. 

 

 

RB's make whatever their draft slot pays........#25 pays around $15M over 4 years........hardly chump change........and all players become eligible for extension after year 3.

 

The problem of course is that second contract.

 

RB's know the deal..........teams don't want to pay them if they don't have to because RB's have short shelf lives..........so they are never worth more than after a good 3rd year.......whether they are a first round pick or otherwise.

 

But ESPECIALLY if a first rounder........because NOW the team has to FULLY guarantee that 5th year option right after the 3rd year.   

 

Once they pull that trigger the team is on the hook for $10M+ more in guarantees in year 5..........so there isn't much for the RB to gain and potentially a lot to lose for the RB to play on that approx $4M-$5M 4th year.

 

That's why the Bills are actually in a great position with Devin Singletary now..........if they had given him 250 carries and he still ran for his stellar career average 4.7 ypc he would have put up nearly 1200 rush yards and might be threatening for a holdout now.

 

But he ain't got the money in the bank OR the bulk stats to pass on his modest $2M salary this year..........he needs to have his BEST season right now and hit free agency.

 

3 guys in a rotation rushing for league average 4.2 would be better than paying Najee Harris $4M per year to carry the ball 300 times for his woeful 3.9 yards per rush and catch 70 balls for a pathetic 6 yards per catch.  

 

Players at premium positions can hold out too but they have longer career outlooks and much greater chances of getting long term deals for many times the AAV of a top RB.   

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Meh........you are getting carried away with yourself just for the sake of it there.

 

Addressing the offense with a first round pick first assumes that it's a position you should use a first round pick on.

 

Technically a blocking TE, a fullback or a slot-receiver-only are also offensive players but throwing a first round pick at them doesn't really make sense.

 

There are about 4 premium positions on offense.......QB/WRX/WRY/LT.........and a lineman who starts at RT or guard but is expected to graduate to LT also qualifies as a 5th premium option and certain great TE's.....like Kyle Pitts last season........qualify as great receivers in the same way that certain great DT's count as pass rushers.

Obviously, I thought that went without saying

I’m talking about a playmaker or OL on offense.  I’ve stated it dozens of times over the last few months.  I figured people would realize I wasn’t talking about a blocking TE or a fullback…… but if you think that should be stated……. 🤷🏻‍♂️ 
 

You even said that something along the lines of:  we can win the SB without using the 25th pick.  We’re so stacked that we can afford to take a luxury.  If they think Breece Hall has a chance to be the best RB in the league, we’re in a situation where we can take that gamble.  It’s probably not the smartest long term choice, but it will be fun for the next 4-5 years.  The best team in the league can sometimes afford that luxury.  
 

i don’t really get what I got carried away with.  I’m just connecting the dots from from Scott has said all offseason.  

1 hour ago, mrags said:

IF… a big IF, Williams makes it to 13-15. Beane should be on the phone with every team that’s on the clock until we make the trade, or he gets drafted. 

i can’t see making it past Minnesota.  Imagine Williams and Jefferson?  Daaaam

[LeGOATski]

1 hour ago, IronMaidenBills said:

This coupled with the Vegas betting odds and someone must know something. Vegas rarely misses. 

Vegas rarely misses on what?

[Milanos Milano]

Just now, LeGOATski said:

Vegas rarely misses on what?

Big adjusted swings that favor betting odds. Going from +600 to +150 in just a day is a large swing. It tells me someone in the know knows. 

[LeGOATski]

1 minute ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Big adjusted swings that favor betting odds. Going from +600 to +150 in just a day is a large swing. It tells me someone in the know knows. 

So Vegas is rarely wrong on draft picks? How has this not been a huge topic of discussion every year? All we need to do is look at the Vegas odds.

[Milanos Milano]

7 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

So Vegas is rarely wrong on draft picks? How has this not been a huge topic of discussion every year? All we need to do is look at the Vegas odds.

Did I say this? I said Vegas rarely misses on huge adjusted odds in a short time frame. The odds of taking a RB went from +600 to +150 in a days time. Usually that means someone in the know or multiple people in the know has placed a good amount of money on it happening. That’s a large swing and it’s usually not wrong. So might as well prepare yourself for a RB. 

[LeGOATski]

2 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Did I say this? I said Vegas rarely misses on huge adjusted odds in a short time frame. The odds of taking a RB went from +600 to +150 in a days time. Usually that means someone in the know or multiple people in the know has placed a good amount of money on it happening. That’s a large swing and it’s usually not wrong. So might as well prepare yourself for a RB. 

You're saying there's a deep history of Vegas odds predicting the draft picks correctly. All we have to do is look at the swings in the odds right before the draft. It's so easy, I'm just surprised it hasn't been a yearly topic. From now on, let's do a Vegas odds thread the day before the draft. It's apparently the best indicator.

[No_Matter_What]

Ok I just checked final mocks on NFL.com.

 

Daniel Jeremiah, Bucky Brooks, Charles Davis, Maurice Jones-Drew and Peter Schrager are all mocking Breece Hall to the Bills.

 

That leads me to a conclusion that in no way, shape or form are Bills drafting Hall at 25. That is just not the way Beane operates. There is absolutely no chance that all these guys can guess correctly what he will do.

 

I love how good he is in creating smoke.

 

I am ready to eat crow I am wrong but I won't be.

Edited April 28, 2022 by No_Matter_What

[BruceVilanch]

3 hours ago, IronMaidenBills said:

Did I say this? I said Vegas rarely misses on huge adjusted odds in a short time frame. The odds of taking a RB went from +600 to +150 in a days time. Usually that means someone in the know or multiple people in the know has placed a good amount of money on it happening. That’s a large swing and it’s usually not wrong. So might as well prepare yourself for a RB. 

It also could be a lot of dumb public money being dumped the night before the draft. Large swings in odds happen all the time the night before an event. The fury V Wilder 2 fight changed big the day of the fight in the wrong direction and that was from dumb money on wilder.