BillsShredder83 Posted April 26, 2022 Posted April 26, 2022 2 hours ago, JaCrispy said: Any option that has us trading back, I am all for! 👍 its a gamble. you better have several players you like in that range. personally im not a fan of trading back and getting stuck with taking a player thats a lower grade, at a more premier position. trading back puts you at risk of pick purgatory, if you're confident you can use a guy as a serious weapon id rather stand put and just take the guy you like the most.... but again, thats the cost of trading back
Richard Noggin Posted April 26, 2022 Posted April 26, 2022 I'd hope the following consideration has been addressed in the impressive 57-page span of this topic, but...scheme fit? I'm not an advocate for 1st round RBs, but...it seems to me that Hall is a nice prospect for the outside zone run scheme the Bills are looking to feature. His strengths line up with what the Bills org wants to do offensively (all the OL coach candidates this time around were outside zone guys, which is what McD wanted to implement early on with effing Rick Dennison...and all those unforgettable, DYNAMIC outside runs with Mike Tolbert), including pass catching acumen. This spider chart highlights Hall's strength as an outside runner (although it also identifies a lot of deficiencies elsewhere, which can be due to factors above his pay grade, of course). 1
BillsShredder83 Posted April 26, 2022 Posted April 26, 2022 10 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said: I'd hope the following consideration has been addressed in the impressive 57-page span of this topic, but...scheme fit? I'm not an advocate for 1st round RBs, but...it seems to me that Hall is a nice prospect for the outside zone run scheme the Bills are looking to feature. His strengths line up with what the Bills org wants to do offensively (all the OL coach candidates this time around were outside zone guys, which is what McD wanted to implement early on with effing Rick Dennison...and all those unforgettable, DYNAMIC outside runs with Mike Tolbert), including pass catching acumen. This spider chart highlights Hall's strength as an outside runner (although it also identifies a lot of deficiencies elsewhere, which can be due to factors above his pay grade, of course). "by yards % over expected" ??? does that mean on the outside run, if the avg back gets 5 yards, hes getting almost 10yds, or am i misinterpreting it?
HappyDays Posted April 26, 2022 Posted April 26, 2022 Even if the reported interest in Breece Hall is true it doesn't necessarily mean the 1st round. He's projected to go in the 2nd. Connecting dots on the various rumors here are the two scenarios it leads to: Scenario 1 - Beane makes an aggressive trade up for Jameson Williams. Scenario 2 - The trade up doesn't work out so Beane executes a pre-agreed upon trade back with a team picking between 33 and 40 and picks Breece Hall there. 2
BillsShredder83 Posted April 26, 2022 Posted April 26, 2022 11 minutes ago, HappyDays said: Even if the reported interest in Breece Hall is true it doesn't necessarily mean the 1st round. He's projected to go in the 2nd. Connecting dots on the various rumors here are the two scenarios it leads to: Scenario 1 - Beane makes an aggressive trade up for Jameson Williams. Scenario 2 - The trade up doesn't work out so Beane executes a pre-agreed upon trade back with a team picking between 33 and 40 and picks Breece Hall there. Hoping you're right but did i miss something? Havent seen anything indicating that
HappyDays Posted April 26, 2022 Posted April 26, 2022 Just now, BillsShredder83 said: Hoping you're right but did i miss something? Havent seen anything indicating that Kirby said in the draft rumors thread he has heard the Bills love Jameson Williams. Obviously he isn't making it all the way to pick 25. If we want him it will be a trade up, and I think it would have to be into the top 10. 2
Richard Noggin Posted April 26, 2022 Posted April 26, 2022 1 hour ago, BillsShredder83 said: "by yards % over expected" ??? does that mean on the outside run, if the avg back gets 5 yards, hes getting almost 10yds, or am i misinterpreting it? I'm not sure what you're looking at specifically to derive that kind of almost 200% YOE... Looks like the spider chart simply suggests an almost 20% above average YOE on outside runs in 2021. If you're diving in elsewhere, I'm happy to take a look. 1
John from Riverside Posted April 26, 2022 Posted April 26, 2022 1 hour ago, Richard Noggin said: I'd hope the following consideration has been addressed in the impressive 57-page span of this topic, but...scheme fit? I'm not an advocate for 1st round RBs, but...it seems to me that Hall is a nice prospect for the outside zone run scheme the Bills are looking to feature. His strengths line up with what the Bills org wants to do offensively (all the OL coach candidates this time around were outside zone guys, which is what McD wanted to implement early on with effing Rick Dennison...and all those unforgettable, DYNAMIC outside runs with Mike Tolbert), including pass catching acumen. This spider chart highlights Hall's strength as an outside runner (although it also identifies a lot of deficiencies elsewhere, which can be due to factors above his pay grade, of course). Thank you for this at least this is something to look at rather than just I want him crowd 6 minutes ago, HappyDays said: Kirby said in the draft rumors thread he has heard the Bills love Jameson Williams. Obviously he isn't making it all the way to pick 25. If we want him it will be a trade up, and I think it would have to be into the top 10. Jamison is literally the only player I want to move up for because I believe that he is the number one receiver when healthy 1
BillsShredder83 Posted April 26, 2022 Posted April 26, 2022 12 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said: I'm not sure what you're looking at specifically to derive that kind of almost 200% YOE... Looks like the spider chart simply suggests an almost 20% above average YOE on outside runs in 2021. If you're diving in elsewhere, I'm happy to take a look. i guess the chart lost me. i just see that outter ring is 100%, so i took it to mean 100% over expected?
HappyDays Posted April 26, 2022 Posted April 26, 2022 6 minutes ago, John from Riverside said: Jamison is literally the only player I want to move up for Yeah this is the opinion I've settled on since last week. I'm all in on trading up for Williams even at the cost of our 2023 1st. I mean he's a perfect fit in every way - gives our offense an elite speed and YAC element it's been missing; meshes well with Allen's skill set; has legitimate superstar traits that we will rarely if ever have the opportunity to draft as long as Allen is here winning games. What is the argument for holding on to a late 1st round pick in 2023 when we have the chance to get a superstar? 1 1
Richard Noggin Posted April 26, 2022 Posted April 26, 2022 7 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said: i guess the chart lost me. i just see that outter ring is 100%, so i took it to mean 100% over expected? I don't think the percentage strata (or rings) are indicative of YOE, exactly. Otherwise, a merely average RB would be gaining roughly 80% MORE yards than expected on given types of plays, which sounds to me like a VERY above average player. So I think, like RAS, this spider chart is simply offering comparative percentile rankings for RB performance on various categories of situational plays, with 100% being the highest score. 1
JaCrispy Posted April 26, 2022 Posted April 26, 2022 5 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said: its a gamble. you better have several players you like in that range. personally im not a fan of trading back and getting stuck with taking a player thats a lower grade, at a more premier position. trading back puts you at risk of pick purgatory, if you're confident you can use a guy as a serious weapon id rather stand put and just take the guy you like the most.... but again, thats the cost of trading back Every time I do the draft simulation, I trade back to the 30s or 40s, and there are easily a ton of great players to choose from in the 2nd and 3rd rounds...it has shown me that that is probably the best way to go to build solid depth for this year and into the future... Whenever I stay at 25, I always wish I had that extra day 2 pick to get a safety, WR, TE, RB, or OL... There really isn’t that big of a difference in talent between picks 20-60...I Hope Beane realizes this with all the simulations he claims to be doing...Because it’s really opened my eyes to the possibilities....👍 1
Billzgobowlin Posted April 26, 2022 Posted April 26, 2022 I was absolutely love Hall here but realistically they can't settle on one guy until the 24 picks before them are selected. Just too many variables... 2 hours ago, JaCrispy said: Every time I do the draft simulation, I trade back to the 30s or 40s, and there are easily a ton of great players to choose from in the 2nd and 3rd rounds...it has shown me that that is probably the best way to go to build solid depth for this year and into the future... Whenever I stay at 25, I always wish I had that extra day 2 pick to get a safety, WR, TE, RB, or OL... There really isn’t that big of a difference in talent between picks 20-60...I Hope Beane realizes this with all the simulations he claims to be doing...Because it’s really opened my eyes to the possibilities....👍 They have to have a trade partner and others probably see the talent too 1
ArdmoreRyno Posted April 26, 2022 Posted April 26, 2022 16 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said: They went head to head in 2020 with Breece out rushing him. Breece had 20 carries for 185 and a TD. Chuba had 25 carries for 139 and a TD 😬🤐 Yea... because Chuba and Hall were playing defense against each other 🙄 For one thing, Hubbard wasn't the same in 2020. He went from rushing for 2,000+ yards in2019 to under 700 (had injuries all season). I never said Hall wasn't good, I just said I thought Hubbard was better and wouldn't take a chance on drafting him.
NewEra Posted April 26, 2022 Posted April 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: Are you sure that’s Breece Hall? I could’ve sworn that was Jonathan Taylor!! 1
2003Contenders Posted April 26, 2022 Posted April 26, 2022 Given that we have no way of knowing what will happen with those 1st 24 picks, it is impossible to predict what the Bills will do at 25 -- and whether or not they will trade up/down. Beane loves draft day flexibility, and we can be rest assured that he has been on the phone with other teams talking about trade-up as well as trade-down options. We have heard the rumors for weeks now that he is serious about moving up in the draft -- and I do not doubt that is true. But it is equally likely that he could be patient and wait for the draft to come to him at 25. Given that the trade-down market appears to be weak, I am not sure that the Bills will be able to go that route -- unless there is a team picking at the top of the 2nd, who wants a shot at the 5th year option that trading back into the 1st would provide. Of course, we hear predictions of this happening every year -- and there is rarely as much movement in the back end of the 1st round as we expect. I don't think the Bills would make a huge move to get inside, say, the top 10 because of how much that would cost -- but I could see them trading up a bit (inside the top 20) if a guy they love starts to slide. I think they also have a list of guys that they would be comfortable taking at 25 if the draft does not go how they hope (and no one slips to them). Breece Hall could very well be one of those guys.
Warriorspikes51 Posted April 26, 2022 Posted April 26, 2022 (edited) Breece Hall responded to Cover 1 Bills film breakdown account on Twitter...twice. Must believe the Bills are likely to take him Edited April 26, 2022 by Warriorspikes51 1 1
YoloinOhio Posted April 26, 2022 Posted April 26, 2022 12 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said: Breece Hall responded to Cover 1 Bills film breakdown account on Twitter...twice. Must believe the Bills are likely to take him He probably hopes that they do - but every player who interviews with a team comes away thinking that team wants them, especially the early rounders - only thing is they only get to pick one guy at each spot 1
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