Breaking: Von Miller to bills, 6 year , 120 million

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

I like the swing for the fences. That said I'm very cautious in my expectations for a 33, 34 and 35 year old Von Miller. There have been a couple guys, literally a couple, that have produced 9+ sacks per year averages at those since 2000. Jon Abraham and Cameron Wake totaled 31 and 29 sacks respectively in their 33rd, 34th and 35th years. 

 

What is the general consensus on the sack total's people expect Miller to put up over the next three years? 

 

The bar is pretty low currently. We haven't had a player total a 10+ sack season since 33 year old Lorenzo Alexander had his career year in 2016. Overall McDermott's Bills defenses don't seem to get a lot of sacks. I guess if Miller could average just around 8 sacks a year for the next three years that would be fantastic production for both this defense and a player of Miller's age.  But are people expecting an average of 10+ sacks a year the next three years?

 

I also like the addition of Phillips and Lawson on the roster again. The Bills defense totaled the most team sacks of the McDermott era with those two on the roster back in 2019. 

 

Stathead: Sack leaders ages 33 through 35.

Miller is going to get double digit sacks this year

[Motor26]

24 minutes ago, mannc said:

Ok, si the “no sack” streak started the next week…whenever Bates was added.

Ok, so in those last 3 regular season games he was 18th in pocket time, most pressures, and 4th in knockdowns, and had the lowest QB rating of his career at 17.0 vs. the Falcons. As others have said in the Bates thread, if the Bills valued him so highly all they needed to do as slap a 2nd round tender on him for 1.5 million more and they would have kept him for sure, but they didn’t.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

Miller is going to get double digit sacks this year

Not only that. Miller is going to cause Ed Oliver to get double digit sacks this year. 

[Mat68]

1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

I like the swing for the fences. That said I'm very cautious in my expectations for a 33, 34 and 35 year old Von Miller. There have been a couple guys, literally a couple, that have produced 9+ sacks per year averages at those ages since 2000. Jon Abraham and Cameron Wake totaled 31 and 29 sacks respectively in their 33rd, 34th and 35th years. 

 

What is the general consensus on the sack total's people expect Miller to put up over the next three years? 

 

The bar is pretty low currently. We haven't had a player total a 10+ sack season since 33 year old Lorenzo Alexander had his career year in 2016. Overall McDermott's Bills defenses don't seem to get a lot of sacks. I guess if Miller could average just around 8 sacks a year for the next three years that would be fantastic production for both this defense and a player of Miller's age.  But are people expecting an average of 10+ sacks a year the next three years?

 

I also like the addition of Phillips and Lawson on the roster again. The Bills defense totaled the most team sacks of the McDermott era with those two on the roster back in 2019. 

 

Stathead: Sack leaders ages 33 through 35.

Fitzgerald, Rice and Bruce played very well at 33, 34, 35.  For the Bills Bruce Smith got 13.5, 14 and 10 at similar ages. He was still passable at Washington near the end. 
 

I included Jerry and Fitzgarald with Bruce because those are different guys. Miller is a different guy.  He is first ballot hall of famer.  Always kept his body right and is a freak athlete like Bruce.  He is not the same as others imo.   Its risky yes but a smart bet.  

[GolfandBills]

1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

Miller is going to get double digit sacks this year

Is that a hot take since he’s gotten 10+ almost every year of his career?

[jlgarsh]

1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

I like the swing for the fences. That said I'm very cautious in my expectations for a 33, 34 and 35 year old Von Miller. There have been a couple guys, literally a couple, that have produced 9+ sacks per year averages at those ages since 2000. Jon Abraham and Cameron Wake totaled 31 and 29 sacks respectively in their 33rd, 34th and 35th years. 

 

What is the general consensus on the sack total's people expect Miller to put up over the next three years? 

 

The bar is pretty low currently. We haven't had a player total a 10+ sack season since 33 year old Lorenzo Alexander had his career year in 2016. Overall McDermott's Bills defenses don't seem to get a lot of sacks. I guess if Miller could average just around 8 sacks a year for the next three years that would be fantastic production for both this defense and a player of Miller's age.  But are people expecting an average of 10+ sacks a year the next three years?

 

I also like the addition of Phillips and Lawson on the roster again. The Bills defense totaled the most team sacks of the McDermott era with those two on the roster back in 2019. 

 

Stathead: Sack leaders ages 33 through 35.

Can you change it to 1990 to present? Curious to see where some of the all time leaders landed, and pass rushing hasn't changed that much. I tried to change the years but it said I needed to be a subscriber for results lol

[Chandler#81]

6 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

Not only that. Miller is going to cause Ed Oliver to get double digit sacks this year. 

Given our propensity to rotate DL I don’t  know that anyone sans possibly Von gets double digit sacks. This said, ‘the Garbage Collector’ Jordan Phillips has returned. He’s the Phil Esposito of garbage sacks.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

3 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Given our propensity to rotate DL I don’t  know that anyone sans possibly Von gets double digit sacks. This said, ‘the Garbage Collector’ Jordan Phillips has returned. He’s the Phil Esposito of garbage sacks.

you know Phillips will magically end up with 8 sacks. Guarantee it. 

[The Dean]

On 3/17/2022 at 10:19 AM, harryS said:

I like the signing but I also wish we had just traded for him.  Maybe the Bills and Rams would swap roles right now, with the Rams trying to go all-in again and signing MIller to a massive contract while the Bills celebrate a Lombardi.

 

How would they trade for a free agent?

[GolfandBills]

1 minute ago, The Dean said:

 

How would they trade for a free agent?

Beans wizardry would of made it happen 

[Matt_In_NH]

Last year 30 million dollar salary with 0 dead cap.  Lol.  

[Not at the table Karlos]

20 minutes ago, The Dean said:

 

How would they trade for a free agent?

They're talking about when he was traded from Broncos to Rams. We did make an attempt.

[The Wiz]

2 hours ago, GolfandBills said:

Is that a hot take since he’s gotten 10+ almost every year of his career?

I'll take 6 sacks as long as they are all in the post season. 

[BuffaloBills1998]

https://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/2022/03/obj-said-von-miller-looks-tufffffff-in-bills-uniform-could-pass-rusher-recruit-wr-again.html?outputType=amp Von potentially trying to recruit OBJ here?

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, jlgarsh said:

Can you change it to 1990 to present? Curious to see where some of the all time leaders landed, and pass rushing hasn't changed that much. I tried to change the years but it said I needed to be a subscriber for results lol

 

Sure thing.

 

All time sack leaders ages 33 through 35. 1990 to present.

 

No surprise who #1 is on the list.

 

I'm not sure I agree that pass rushing hasn't changed much over the years. True, the skill set might be the same today as it was in the 80's or 90's. But looking through the list of 61 players with 10+ sacks at the ages of 33, 34, and 35 we see that 7 of the top 10 sack totals are held by players who played at those ages in the 90's. Only 1 player in the 2000's decade and just 2 players in the 2010+ decade despite that time span having two extra year (2020 and 2021). 

 

Furthermore, the two greatest sack artists of all time who are #1 and #2 in career sacks just so happened to come into the league the same year, 1985. And actually, 3 of the top 4 all time sack leaders came into the league in 1985. Kevin Greene is 4th all time in sacks and also came into the league in 1985 as well. And the curious thing, is that it's not like we have seen a dip in the seasonal sack leader totals. TJ Watt tied the record of 22.5 sacks (in only 15 games) this last season. A record that was set by Strahan in the 2001 season. 

 

Another way to show that their hasn't been a seasonal decline in the number of sacks is to look at the number of season with 20 + sack leaders in two different time frames. One being our modern era of 2000-2021 (22 seasons) and the other being 1978 to 2000 (also 22 seasons). And it just so happens 1978 was the year the league expanded to 16 games from 14. We find that from 2000-2021 we have 7 years where the seasonal sack leader had 20+ sacks. And from 1928 to 2000 we have 8 years where the seasonal sack leader had 20+ sacks. So pass rushers are still getting to the QB's with just about as much success as they used to.

 

For whatever reason, it does appear that older pass rushers in the last 22 years are not playing at the same level as those same older pass rushers of the 80's and 90's. That is if we use sacks as the measurement for success.

 

Here's another table that shows players at the ages of 33, 34 and 35 from 1980 to present who put up 20+ sacks over that three year period. If all was equal we would expect to see over 50% of the players to have played those seasons sometime between 2000 and 2021. Instead only 7 of the 23 played in the 2000 - 2021 era. 

 

1980 to present pass rusher ages 33 through 35 with 20+ sacks.

[jlgarsh]

3 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Sure thing.

 

All time sack leaders ages 33 through 35. 1990 to present.

 

No surprise who #1 is on the list.

 

I'm not sure I agree that pass rushing hasn't changed much over the years. True, the skill set might be the same today as it was in the 80's or 90's. But looking through the list of 61 players with 10+ sacks at the ages of 33, 34, and 35 we see that 7 of the top 10 sack totals are held by players who played at those ages in the 90's. Only 1 player in the 2000's decade and just 2 players in the 2010+ decade despite that time span having two extra year (2020 and 2021). 

 

Furthermore, the two greatest sack artists of all time who are #1 and #2 in career sacks just so happened to come into the league the same year, 1985. And actually, 3 of the top 4 all time sack leaders came into the league in 1985. Kevin Greene is 4th all time in sacks and also came into the league in 1985 as well. And the curious thing, is that it's not like we have seen a dip in the seasonal sack leader totals. TJ Watt tied the record of 22.5 sacks (in only 15 games) this last season. A record that was set by Strahan in the 2001 season. 

 

Another way to show that their hasn't been a seasonal decline in the number of sacks is to look at the number of season with 20 + sack leaders in two different time frames. One being our modern era of 2000-2021 (22 seasons) and the other being 1978 to 2000 (also 22 seasons). And it just so happens 1978 was the year the league expanded to 16 games from 14. We find that from 2000-2021 we have 7 years where the seasonal sack leader had 20+ sacks. And from 1928 to 2000 we have 8 years where the seasonal sack leader had 20+ sacks. So pass rushers are still getting to the QB's with just about as much success as they used to.

 

For whatever reason, it does appear that older pass rushers in the last 22 years are not playing at the same level as those same older pass rushers of the 80's and 90's. That is if we use sacks as the measurement for success.

 

Here's another table that shows players at the ages of 33, 34 and 35 from 1980 to present who put up 20+ sacks over that three year period. If all was equal we would expect to see over 50% of the players to have played those seasons sometime between 2000 and 2021. Instead only 7 of the 23 played in the 2000 - 2021 era. 

 

1980 to present pass rusher ages 33 through 35 with 20+ sacks.

Thank you! Appreciate it

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

5 minutes ago, jlgarsh said:

Thank you! Appreciate it

 

I love Stathead. It's fun to play around with. It's $8 a month. It used to be a free part of Pro Football Reference but they split the searching function of PFR off into Stathead a couple years ago. For now I am willing to support them.

 

Again, I'm cautiously optimistic Miller will have a very good 3 years here in Buffalo. But the track record of guys playing his position at his age isn't great. I also want to make sure fans are not setting unrealistic expectations for him. John Abraham and Cameron Wake were the two best to ever do it over the last 22 seasons at Miller's current age and they averaged 10 and 9.5 sacks a season respectively. So numbers close to that for Miller would be outstanding. But we might have folks here expecting him to average 11 or 12 sacks a year. 

 

That said, we could see a big year for Von next year. Tua, Mac and Wilson twice a year each. Those are still some young QB's figuring things out. And throw Justin Fields, Mitch Trubitzky with a bad o-line and Deshaun Watson who has always been a high sack percentage guy.

[NewEra]

5 hours ago, mannc said:

Who?

I doubt that.  He wasn’t sacked a single time in those games.  Not once.

He’s just getting THAT good at letting the OL off the hook 

4 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

I like the swing for the fences. That said I'm very cautious in my expectations for a 33, 34 and 35 year old Von Miller. There have been a couple guys, literally a couple, that have produced 9+ sacks per year averages at those ages since 2000. Jon Abraham and Cameron Wake totaled 31 and 29 sacks respectively in their 33rd, 34th and 35th years. 

 

What is the general consensus on the sack total's people expect Miller to put up over the next three years? 

 

The bar is pretty low currently. We haven't had a player total a 10+ sack season since 33 year old Lorenzo Alexander had his career year in 2016. Overall McDermott's Bills defenses don't seem to get a lot of sacks. I guess if Miller could average just around 8 sacks a year for the next three years that would be fantastic production for both this defense and a player of Miller's age.  But are people expecting an average of 10+ sacks a year the next three years?

 

I also like the addition of Phillips and Lawson on the roster again. The Bills defense totaled the most team sacks of the McDermott era with those two on the roster back in 2019. 

 

Stathead: Sack leaders ages 33 through 35.

Von was signed for regular season sacks.  Just worry about him making it to the playoffs healthy.  Don’t worry about regular season sacks

Edited March 20, 2022 by NewEra

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

26 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Von was signed for regular season sacks.  Just worry about him making it to the playoffs healthy.  Don’t worry about regular season sacks

 

That's a whole other concern for players that age. But Miller has been a very good playoff performer. He finished last season with 9 sacks in the final 8 games he played in.

 

One of Miller's old teammates DeMarucs Ware battled regular season injuries during their super bowl run but he was able to perform in the postseason chipping in 3.5 sacks in 3 games. From a height and weight standpoint Ware is a pretty good comparison for Miller. Ware did have a greater number of sacks then Miller through the same number of seasons played (10 seasons), 127  for Ware to 115.5 for Miller. One could say Ware was every bit the player Miller has been. Ware's final three seasons were lack luster only averaging 7.2 sacks a year with Broncos before retiring at the age of 34. But yeah, ultimately he did help deliver a title. We will all be happy if Miller does the same. But around 8 sacks a year should be what we expect Miller to average in his three years with Buffalo.

 

I do feel like the Bills need to get the 1 seed this year after two seasons of flirting with getting that seed. So they don't matter in a sense but if the Bills are unable to lock up the one seed we might look back and wish we had those regular season sacks.

[NewEra]

34 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

That's a whole other concern for players that age. But Miller has been a very good playoff performer. He finished last season with 9 sacks in the final 8 games he played in.

 

One of Miller's old teammates DeMarucs Ware battled regular season injuries during their super bowl run but he was able to perform in the postseason chipping in 3.5 sacks in 3 games. From a height and weight standpoint Ware is a pretty good comparison for Miller. Ware did have a greater number of sacks then Miller through the same number of seasons played (10 seasons), 127  for Ware to 115.5 for Miller. One could say Ware was every bit the player Miller has been. Ware's final three seasons were lack luster only averaging 7.2 sacks a year with Broncos before retiring at the age of 34. But yeah, ultimately he did help deliver a title. We will all be happy if Miller does the same. But around 8 sacks a year should be what we expect Miller to average in his three years with Buffalo.

 

I do feel like the Bills need to get the 1 seed this year after two seasons of flirting with getting that seed. So they don't matter in a sense but if the Bills are unable to lock up the one seed we might look back and wish we had those regular season sacks.

I think 8 might even be too high.  I’m thinking the rotation continues and I hope it does.  Come playoffs I expect to see him play 75% of the snaps or more.  I’m only worried about him getting inured. No other concerns about him. His is explosion/burst is on a bother level imo. Everyone was saying he was slowing down the last couple years.  Watching him in the playoffs this year…..dude was full tilt and maybe as good as ever.  Plus his dominance vs the run game.  
 

Ware should’ve been a 1st ballot imo.  He was a stud.  I think von is better.