Bills’ situation, free agency and the desire to go “all in”

[OldTimer1960]

The Bills are in the enviable position of having a great young QB who is 25 y.o.  Unfortunately, they are not the only team in the AFC who has a great QB (Mahomes, Burrows, Herbert, Russell Wilson (Den), maybe Lamar Jackson) and there are some good QBs who might become great (Wilson (Jets), Trevor Lawrence).  Beyond them, we don’t know who might get Desean Watson…

 

Point is, Josh is great, but there are several teams who have great QBs, too.  Looking at it rationally, if you get to the playoffs you have to win a minimum of 3 games (4 if you don’t have first week bye) to win the SB.  All the teams in the AFC playoffs are likely to be very good and have outstanding QBs.  Let’s look at what the probability of winning a SB would be for a very good team who doesn’t have a first round bye.  This would mean that they would have to win 4 consecutive games against the best teams in the league.  Being charitable, assume your team has a 70% chance to win each game.  To win 4 straight, the probability is .7x.7x.7x.7= 24%

 

In my view, the Bills should be playing the long game and not mortgaging the future to go “all in”.  Allen should have minimum of 7 more very good years.  I don’t want them to play cap games and create a problem 2 or 3 years from now that would eliminate them from contention.  Be reasonable, don’t create big cap problems and let your young player grow some.  This team is good enough to be competitive with any team in the AFC, though I admit that Chargers have improved a ton on paper and Cincy will be a big problem while Burrows is on his rookie deal.

[Reed83HOF]

It's interesting, many of these teams aren't were honestly us and KC are and that gap is closing. The past 2 offseasons we really haven't moved the needle. I freely admit and agree the degree of needle movement is of a much smaller magnitude than any other team. Edge and a true lack of a pass rush is a big deal. 

 

I know we spent 2 picks on that last year, but how much can we expect this year from them?

[Lost]

3 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

 To win 4 straight, the probability is .7x.7x.7x.7= 24%

 

 

Reduce your percentages to a coin flip 50/50 against equally competitive teams and Bills have just a 6% chance of winning SB.   So yeah, banking everything on one year doesn't sound wise in that scenario.  

 

[Brennan Huff]

I don’t want to compete for the playoffs every year. I want to win a Super Bowl. Gotta do something here

[HappyDays]

Overpaying a single impact player in free agency is not the same as "going all in." We could have signed someone like Chandler Jones without disrupting our future at all. In two years the cap is going to skyrocket when the new TV deals get finalized.

[ngbills]

Since when is signing a guy to a 2-3 year deal "mortaging the future"? I see that as the opposite - win now without sacrifcing too much. If you notice a lot of the deals are short term and this is the NFL so its easy to get out of even long deals. 

Just now, HappyDays said:

Overpaying a single impact player in free agency is not the same as "going all in." We could have signed someone like Chandler Jones without disrupting our future at all. In two years the cap is going to skyrocket when the new TV deals get finalized.

Every time we dont sign 1 or 2 guys we hear the "all in" comment. Makes no sense. It is so easy to make deals work for a few guys. What actually hurts more is along the line of what are roster has - tons of depth guys making too much money. 

[Charles Romes]

They had a working formula last year but it just did not work. Not one of 7-8 guys was able to get to Mahomes the one time that was needed. Need to go all in for one big time pass rusher. 

[Lost]

Just now, Charles Romes said:

They had a working formula last year but it just did not work. Not one of 7-8 guys was able to get to Mahomes the one time that was needed. Need to go all in for one big time pass rusher. 

 

I just don't like the Bills philosophy of build for depth and rotation.  I would rather over pay a genuine playmaker and take the risk that he'll stay healthy all year than have a 4 player depth chart of mediocrity for the same value.  

[RunninRebel37]

I’m a little disappointed Bills haven’t been more active in FA or trades. Other teams are closing the gap and we’re in the same position we were at the end of the season…no upgrades in O-Line, D-Line, or DB. Hoping some news comes down soon. 

[SCBills]

2 minutes ago, Lost said:

 

I just don't like the Bills philosophy of build for depth and rotation.  I would rather over pay a genuine playmaker and take the risk that he'll stay healthy all year than have a 4 player depth chart of mediocrity for the same value.  

It doesn’t even need to be that…

 

Bills chose their playmaker.  Tremaine Edmunds at a 13M cap hit this year.  
 

Cut Beasley + that 13M and there’s your Chandler Jones.  

[NewEra]

18 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

The Bills are in the enviable position of having a great young QB who is 25 y.o.  Unfortunately, they are not the only team in the AFC who has a great QB (Mahomes, Burrows, Herbert, Russell Wilson (Den), maybe Lamar Jackson) and there are some good QBs who might become great (Wilson (Jets), Trevor Lawrence).  Beyond them, we don’t know who might get Desean Watson…

 

Point is, Josh is great, but there are several teams who have great QBs, too.  Looking at it rationally, if you get to the playoffs you have to win a minimum of 3 games (4 if you don’t have first week bye) to win the SB.  All the teams in the AFC playoffs are likely to be very good and have outstanding QBs.  Let’s look at what the probability of winning a SB would be for a very good team who doesn’t have a first round bye.  This would mean that they would have to win 4 consecutive games against the best teams in the league.  Being charitable, assume your team has a 70% chance to win each game.  To win 4 straight, the probability is .7x.7x.7x.7= 24%

 

In my view, the Bills should be playing the long game and not mortgaging the future to go “all in”.  Allen should have minimum of 7 more very good years.  I don’t want them to play cap games and create a problem 2 or 3 years from now that would eliminate them from contention.  Be reasonable, don’t create big cap problems and let your young player grow some.  This team is good enough to be competitive with any team in the AFC, though I admit that Chargers have improved a ton on paper and Cincy will be a big problem while Burrows is on his rookie deal.

It could be the best thing we could do…. It could also be the biggest blunder in franchise history if Josh never gets a SB because we failed to go all in.  

Edited March 16, 2022 by NewEra

[RalphWilson'sNewWar]

It’s year 6 for Coach McDermott

It’’a year 5 for Allen.

 

If Buffalo was any other big city with a national media target on their backs…you’d be hearing the talk of…’off-behind schedule/underachieving’

 

Bottom Line … It Is Time.

[Big Turk]

They aren't going all in. Never planned to. Beane doesn't believe in it.

[Solomon Grundy]

The thing that pisses me off is the money they wasted on players like Star, Addison, Butler, Jefferson overpaying for their services instead of making moves for impact players that would have put the Bills over the hump I.e. Khalil Mack

[The Wiz]

16 minutes ago, Brennan Huff said:

I don’t want to compete for the playoffs every year. I want to win a Super Bowl. Gotta do something here

The nice part is, we really aren't anymore. 

 

Most people have us a lock for the playoffs now so we just need to build on that. 

 

I know the team will always say one game at a time but they thought I'd the last two years exits will always be in their heads and thinking about their end goal. 

[OldTimer1960]

19 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Overpaying a single impact player in free agency is not the same as "going all in." We could have signed someone like Chandler Jones without disrupting our future at all. In two years the cap is going to skyrocket when the new TV deals get finalized.

Do you really think that Chandler Jones would have come close to guaranteeing a SB next year?  I don’t.

3 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

The thing that pisses me off is the money they wasted on players like Star, Addison, Butler, Jefferson overpaying for their services instead of making moves for impact players that would have put the Bills over the hump I.e. Khalil Mack

But you liked those acquisitions at the time.  It IS exciting when they sign name free agents.  It is not a guarantee f success and it is very likely that those signings compromise their future spending ability and competitiveness (of course, my opinion).

[Brennan Huff]

4 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

The nice part is, we really aren't anymore. 

 

Most people have us a lock for the playoffs now so we just need to build on that. 

 

I know the team will always say one game at a time but they thought I'd the last two years exits will always be in their heads and thinking about their end goal. 

It’s dangerous to think that way. At one point late in the season we were not guaranteed a playoff spot

[Reed83HOF]

28 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

It's interesting, many of these teams aren't were honestly us and KC are and that gap is closing. The past 2 offseasons we really haven't moved the needle. I freely admit and agree the degree of needle movement is of a much smaller magnitude than any other team. Edge and a true lack of a pass rush is a big deal. 

 

I know we spent 2 picks on that last year, but how much can we expect this year from them?

Ok...the needle moved...a lot

 

 

[OldTimer1960]

11 minutes ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

It’s year 6 for Coach McDermott

It’’a year 5 for Allen.

 

If Buffalo was any other big city with a national media target on their backs…you’d be hearing the talk of…’off-behind schedule/underachieving’

 

Bottom Line … It Is Time.

I’m sure you are right, but that doesn’t make those opinions rational.

[billybrew1]

28 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

The Bills are in the enviable position of having a great young QB who is 25 y.o.  Unfortunately, they are not the only team in the AFC who has a great QB (Mahomes, Burrows, Herbert, Russell Wilson (Den), maybe Lamar Jackson) and there are some good QBs who might become great (Wilson (Jets), Trevor Lawrence).  Beyond them, we don’t know who might get Desean Watson…

 

Point is, Josh is great, but there are several teams who have great QBs, too.  Looking at it rationally, if you get to the playoffs you have to win a minimum of 3 games (4 if you don’t have first week bye) to win the SB.  All the teams in the AFC playoffs are likely to be very good and have outstanding QBs.  Let’s look at what the probability of winning a SB would be for a very good team who doesn’t have a first round bye.  This would mean that they would have to win 4 consecutive games against the best teams in the league.  Being charitable, assume your team has a 70% chance to win each game.  To win 4 straight, the probability is .7x.7x.7x.7= 24%

 

In my view, the Bills should be playing the long game and not mortgaging the future to go “all in”.  Allen should have minimum of 7 more very good years.  I don’t want them to play cap games and create a problem 2 or 3 years from now that would eliminate them from contention.  Be reasonable, don’t create big cap problems and let your young player grow some.  This team is good enough to be competitive with any team in the AFC, though I admit that Chargers have improved a ton on paper and Cincy will be a big problem while Burrows is on his rookie deal.

I completely disagree. The object of the game is to win a Super Bowl. It is also important that Buffalo gets that losing mentality off our mind. If Beane is smart, he is looking for a major mistake from somebody to get that front seven defender we badly need. I was thinking if Beane missed and shots at it and I don’t know. Like, paying Chandler Jones is a big gamble in my eyes. But, I think, we had a shot at Buckner when he was traded away from the niners….or did we get Diggs that year? IDK, but the point is we have to be ready to act and get that special player. Now if C Jones was three years younger…. Maybe it’s him? Plus, draft an active, strong DT …we might have something….

But I’m for winning Super Bowls and pushing monies into the following year. We could actually do this every year we have Allen and when we lose him, we decide to have a down year….But Beane has to be ready and he has to have scenarios on how to better (mostly on defense) while keeping the O very dangerous.

 

Go Bills!