Analysis of Bills FA so far (prior to new league year) - Put your links or thoughts here

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Didn't see a thread that seemed suitable.  As you find new assessments, put them here:

 

Good breakdown of the moves to date by our ESPN reporter, Alaina Getzenberg (@agetzenberg on twitter)

https://www.espn.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/37068/buffalo-bills-nfl-free-agent-signings-2022-isaiah-mckenzie-gives-josh-allen-another-weapon

 

Quote

J.D. McKissic, RB

 

McKissic agreed to terms on a two-year deal for $7 million that could be worth up to $8 million.

What it means: Bringing in McKissic gives the Bills a reliable pass-catching back with a skill set that was missing from the team’s running back room. The 28-year-old caught 123 passes in two seasons with Washington -- including 80 in 2020 -- and averaged 9.2 yards per reception last year. He’s a good blocker and can be used in a variety of ways in the Bills offense. Buffalo finished the 2021 season last in yards after catch per reception (4.28) and adding McKissic should help there, in addition to taking some of the pressure off quarterback Josh Allen. The veteran will pair well with Devin Singletary, who finished the 2021 season on a strong note, but it does put into question where Zack Moss fits going forward.

 

What's the risk? McKissic finished the 2021 season with a neck injury and did not play in the final six games. He initially entered concussion protocol after suffering the injury in Week 12 against the Seattle Seahawks, but did not play again, despite clearing protocol. The injury is something to keep an eye on, but the Bills likely did a full vetting before entering talks with McKissic. Other than that, the back is considered a high energy player that teammates gravitate toward. He should be a good locker room addition.

 

I had not realized he was coming off a neck injury.  I hope our medical staff is doing better "due diligence" now than they did a while back.

 

From Jay Skurski of TBN:

 

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/jay-skurski-resetting-the-bills-needs-list-before-the-official-start-of-free-agency/article_ea5d1acc-a4c0-11ec-80c1-43c8f902be2b.html

 

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The optimistic view of the Bills’ offseason to this point is that it has been sensible. Operating within the confines of being tight up against the league’s salary cap, Beane’s first few moves have been logical, and predictable. He’s cut veterans Jon Feliciano, Daryl Williams and A.J. Klein for cap space – all justifiable moves given their salary and role on the team. Of the three, only Williams ended the year as a starter, and while it would have been nice to have him back, he was priced as a tackle and not a guard, which is where he ended the year.

As for Beane’s moves from outside the organization, he definitely has tipped his toes in the free-agent pool so far, as opposed to diving in head first. (................)

The pessimistic view of the offseason to this point would be that Beane’s asleep at the wheel. While contenders in the AFC are loading up – the Broncos have agreed to a trade for star quarterback Russell Wilson and the Chargers are set to deal for Khalil Mack and sign Patriots cornerback J.C. Jackson – the Bills’ moves are far less splashy.

Beane has spoken often in the past of how he prefers to fill obvious holes on his roster in free agency, which then allows him to focus on taking the best player available in the draft. With that in mind, what’s left for him to tackle upon the “official” start of free agency?

 

Goes on to discuss options available at QB (  ) and CB:

Quote

Beane has favored one-year deals for veterans at the position in the past, bringing in Vontae Davis, Phillip Gaines, Kevin Johnson and Josh Norman that way.

He has options if he wants to take that approach again, as the Steelers’ Joe Haden, the Raiders’ Casey Hayward, the Vikings’ Patrick Peterson and the Colts’ Xavier Rhodes are all accomplished veterans who could be interested in a short-term deal with a Super Bowl contender.

 

Man, I hate that approach.  Uncle Vontae retired at halftime; Gaines played OK but was injured; Josh Norman was injured and pwn'd.

 

He points out that OT is a sneaky need because with Willams gone, we're one injury away from Tommy Doyle at T and is he ready?

 

The Elephant in the Room is the need for a pass rush, though:

 

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Edge rusher: Fans holding out hope for a big move are probably looking here. With Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison set to hit the open market Wednesday, a case can be made that this is a need position.
 

Arizona’s Chandler Jones is so far without a new team, and social media has been abuzz with pleas for him to sign in Buffalo.

Green Bay’s Za’Darius Smith, Cleveland’s Jadeveon Clowney and the Rams’ Von Miller are also headline-worthy names without agreements to join new teams at this point.
 

Acquiring any one of them would require Beane to conduct some more salary-cap surgery, because none of them figure to come cheap.

 

[MrEpsYtown]

I agree that the washed up veteran approach to finding a corner is dumb. That's why I like going after Jackson. Just 26 years old with just ridiculous speed. I think he fits in really well here. There are still a bunch of corners on the markets, so they may be waiting for wave 2. 

 

What is actually going to happen? They will talk up Dane Jackson as a starter and how they will use Siran Neal on the outside a bit and then they will draft a corner in the first round. 

[JaCrispy]

I think they will sign a vet corner AND draft one in the top 2 rounds...

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I agree that the washed up veteran approach to finding a corner is dumb. That's why I like going after Jackson. Just 26 years old with just ridiculous speed. I think he fits in really well here. There are still a bunch of corners on the markets, so they may be waiting for wave 2. 

 

What is actually going to happen? They will talk up Dane Jackson as a starter and how they will use Siran Neal on the outside a bit and then they will draft a corner in the first round. 

 

I'm afraid you're right. 

 

In preseason, I didn't see anything that persuaded me that the answer to "who can play outside CB?" is "Siran Neal".

 

What do you make of the Saffold signing?

[No_Matter_What]

2 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I agree that the washed up veteran approach to finding a corner is dumb. That's why I like going after Jackson. Just 26 years old with just ridiculous speed. I think he fits in really well here. There are still a bunch of corners on the markets, so they may be waiting for wave 2. 

 

What is actually going to happen? They will talk up Dane Jackson as a starter and how they will use Siran Neal on the outside a bit and then they will draft a corner in the first round. 

I think the plan is to sign good FA corner IF we don't land Jones or similar DE. We don't have money for both.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

I think they will sign a vet corner AND draft one in the top 2 rounds...

 

I think that's a good assessment but it pukes me up a bit.  When I think of the cap space spent on Uncle Vontae, Gaines, Norman etc sometimes it seems like the Bills are that gal who shops the sale racks endlessly and comes home with the trunk full of "bargains" which fill up the closet, but which never look or fit quite as well as she'd like them to. 

 

If she saved her money she could come home with that one "Killer Dress".

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

So the priorities that remain are backup QB, CB, TE and Edge. Can we get that done in FA with at least a stop gap before the draft? Fitz, Donte Jackson, lots of options still at TE and Jones/ Hunter or someone of that ilk. Probably in excess of 40 million there.

 

 

Edited March 16, 2022 by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower

[Coach Tuesday]

Beane likes to go to the Porche dealership on a Saturday morning, waste the sales’ staff time making a loud show of being interested in a brand-new sporty vehicle, then get back in his comfy 2003 Honda and drive off, patting himself on the back for not unnecessarily splurging on luxury.  We do this charade every year.  On the way home he’ll stop at Chipotle and overpay for guacamole just to allow himself a li’l treat and prove that he’s not cheap.

Edited March 16, 2022 by Coach Tuesday

[Gugny]

2 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Beane likes to go to the Porche dealership, make a loud show of being interested in a brand-new sporty vehicle, then get back in his comfy 2003 Honda and drive off, patting himself on the back for not unnecessarily splurging on luxury.  We do this charade every year.

 

Two years ago today, we traded for Stefon Diggs.

[Coach Tuesday]

1 minute ago, Gugny said:

 

Two years ago today, we traded for Stefon Diggs.

Yes.  And that one single move has been held up at the altar by Beane and the Buffalo media as proof that he’s willing to make a big splash - all that jabber about how the conditions were finally there for Beane to pull the trigger.  Hasn’t done anything like it since.  Meanwhile that kind of maneuver is SOP for many teams.

[Yobogoya!]

1 minute ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Yes.  And that one single move has been held up at the altar by Beane and the Buffalo media as proof that he’s willing to make a big splash - all that jabber about how the conditions were finally there for Beane to pull the trigger.  Hasn’t done anything like it since.  Meanwhile that kind of maneuver is SOP for many teams.

 

I think Beane is open to big moves, but I also think he's the kind of negotiator who sets a "hard cap" on what he's willing to invest in a move, and if the other party doesn't operate within his parameters he moves on. 

 

It seems like we're often connected to FA name players and potential trades without the trigger being pulled, and I think the answer is that Beane truly was looking at those players but only within the confines of what he wanted to spend. 

 

It's pragmatic, but not very exciting. 

[Coach Tuesday]

5 minutes ago, Yobogoya! said:

 

I think Beane is open to big moves, but I also think he's the kind of negotiator who sets a "hard cap" on what he's willing to invest in a move, and if the other party doesn't operate within his parameters he moves on. 

 

It seems like we're often connected to FA name players and potential trades without the trigger being pulled, and I think the answer is that Beane truly was looking at those players but only within the confines of what he wanted to spend. 

 

It's pragmatic, but not very exciting. 

As others have said, his “hard cap” seems based more on what his own internal limits are (which are largely dictated by bad deals he’s already given out to middling players) rather than what the market actually will pay.

 

I think the NFL player agents are onto him.  I picture Beane using one of those kidnapper voice disguisers to call agents and ask about the price of high-profile players, then quickly hanging up when they tell it to him.  They recognize the hard breathing as Beane and it leaks out that the Bills are “in on” a certain player - they leverage that “interest” to drum up the market.  But he’s not “in on” jack squat.  He’s Guntekest 2.0.

 

Beane is your midwestern father-in-law.  He loves to ask how much something costs, then give a low whistle and pride himself for not paying it.

Edited March 16, 2022 by Coach Tuesday

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Joe B article in The Athletic. 

https://theathletic.com/3185104/2022/03/15/how-rodger-saffold-tim-settle-and-daquan-jones-fit-the-bills-and-how-the-new-acquisitions-affect-the-nfl-draft/

 

Selected takes:

On OL:

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The Bills have completed their shift in what they want out of offensive linemen with this move. The team moved on from two heavier-footed power blockers in Jon Feliciano and Daryl Williams to invest in Saffold, an outstanding athlete even at his age. He still packs a punch as an overpowering run blocker, with the movement skills Williams didn’t possess for some of the team’s play calls. While we still have to learn what this means for their blocking principles as we get into the season, the Bills have opened themselves up to numerous possibilities.

He points out the much higher RAS on the line with this tid-bit I haven't seen elsewhere:

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Saffold is listed at 8.61 as a tackle, but as a guard, he’s a 9.49. These metrics were in the player’s draft year, so Saffold likely has dropped a bit of this agility and speed, though he still shows ample movement ability. The one-year deal makes it a temporary solution, which means drafting a guard in April should be firmly on the Bills’ radar.

Agree on the draft thing.

 

He points out that Daquan Jones fills the "run stuffing 1TDT" niche and that with the contract details unknown:

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With Jones and Lotulelei on the roster, it takes away the immediate need to draft a one-technique defensive tackle, but it shouldn’t rule out the Bills from selecting one at some point in April. The Bills can get out of Lotulelei’s deal with legitimate cap savings for the first time in 2023, and if the Jones deal is only for one year, there could be a complete turnover at the position in one season. By drafting a one-technique in 2022, the Bills would develop that player in the background to prepare him for a role in his second season.

 

On Isaiah McKenzie, something I haven't seen before is that he actually has an incentive-laden contract with $3.6M more earnings possible:

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The deal winds up being worth $4.4 million, with another $3.6 million possibly earned through incentives — though the cap charges only reflect the $4.4 million. According to a source, McKenzie will count around $1.86 million against the cap in 2022 and then carries a cap hit of $2.525 million in 2023. The Bills can easily leave the contract after only one season if they choose, potentially saving $2.225 million in cap space by cutting McKenzie next offseason.

 

One thing where "the eye of the  beholder" must be involved.  Buscaglia says:

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After his breakout game against the Patriots, McKenzie drifted back down to his usual 15- to 25-snaps role once Beasley returned from the reserve/COVID-19 list.

 

That's actually not what I see.   I see McKenzie's snap count as jumping to an average of 29% before and after but not counting the NE game (average of 29%), from an average of 20% in the preceding 5 games (not counting the inactive games and not going back 6 games to where he had an abherrently low 5%).  In the same stretch, Beasley's average snap count (again not including the game he missed) went from 57% to 45% of the snaps.  So while game to game variance makes it hard to be sure, it does look to me as though McKenzie's snaps were trending up, at the same time that Beasley's snaps were trending down overall.

[atomicpwrd]

All these other teams making splash moves...they don't have Josh Allen, Stephon Diggs, Dawson Knox...etc.  You get the point.  They are all trying to catch us.  We can still improve, but don't have as far to go.

 

Beane is addressing this team's needs which are not as pressing as the other teams.  I think he believes in value...sometimes you spend like crazy and don't get your money's worth...

 

One of our biggest issues is our defensive line - we addressed that, and I think our interior will be much better.  That should help our DEs and translate into more pressure and sacks.

 

McKissic adds a new dimension to the offense and will make it much more difficult to defend.

 

I am not sure about Saffold...we will see if he has anything in the tank.  He could be an upgrade and the left side of the line should be pretty good with him playing between Morse and Dawkins.  I still think we need some investment on the interior OL.

 

Corner and b/u QB are still an issue.  There are lots of options left there.  I think we will sign a corner and draft one...I expect a high round corner.

 

Getting better on the edge is also a necessity.  Chandler Jones would not surprise me, nor would resigning Hughes.  I think the others are priced out of our range.  We will see if Jones means what he said about it not being about the money...

 

There is still more fun to be had, hang in there!

[Stank_Nasty]

Bill Barnwells Winners/Losers of FA to this point. Same song and dance just a different year. Smart and reasonable signings. I feel like you could read a write up of any of Beanes FA periods in buffalo and not be able to guess the year that it happened.... other than the Diggs move, obviously.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/33512732/nfl-free-agency-2022-picking-early-winners-losers-negotiating-window-including-buccaneers-jaguars-cowboys

 

Winners: Buffalo Bills

As usual, the Bills seem to have a coherent, thoughtful plan for the free-agent period. They've done a few reasonable deals to retain players, including center Mitch Morse (two years, $19.5 million), cornerback Siran Neal (three years, $9 million) and Isaiah McKenzie (two years, $4.4 million), who should step into the slot receiver role about to be vacated by Cole Beasley.

 

The Bills don't have a ton of cap space, but I also like the two moves they've made outside the organization. Bringing in Rodger Saffold III from the Titans gives Buffalo a solid starting guard and a replacement for Daryl Williams, who was cut one year into his three-year extension. The Bills also added running back J.D. McKissic on a two-year deal for $7 million -- close to half of what the Dolphins paid for a similar player in Chase Edmonds. DaQuan Jones's two-year, $14 million deal nets Buffalo the third defensive tackle it needed after losing Harrison Phillips to the Vikings.

Brandon Beane & Co. have generally been content to shop in the middle class of free agency for the majority of the GM's tenure. It has usually worked. Sean McDermott and his coaching staff deserve plenty of credit for getting more out of players in Buffalo than their former organizations, but the Bills continue to make the sort of reasonable moves they employed to climb to the top of the AFC East.

Edited March 16, 2022 by Stank_Nasty

[BuffaloBill]

7 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Bill Barnwells Winners/Losers of FA to this point. Same song and dance just a different year. Smart and reasonable signings. I feel like you could read a write up of any of Beanes FA periods in buffalo and not be able to guess the year that it happened.... other than the Diggs move, obviously.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/33512732/nfl-free-agency-2022-picking-early-winners-losers-negotiating-window-including-buccaneers-jaguars-cowboys

 

Winners: Buffalo Bills

As usual, the Bills seem to have a coherent, thoughtful plan for the free-agent period. They've done a few reasonable deals to retain players, including center Mitch Morse (two years, $19.5 million), cornerback Siran Neal (three years, $9 million) and Isaiah McKenzie (two years, $4.4 million), who should step into the slot receiver role about to be vacated by Cole Beasley.

 

The Bills don't have a ton of cap space, but I also like the two moves they've made outside the organization. Bringing in Rodger Saffold III from the Titans gives Buffalo a solid starting guard and a replacement for Daryl Williams, who was cut one year into his three-year extension. The Bills also added running back J.D. McKissic on a two-year deal for $7 million -- close to half of what the Dolphins paid for a similar player in Chase Edmonds. DaQuan Jones's two-year, $14 million deal nets Buffalo the third defensive tackle it needed after losing Harrison Phillips to the Vikings.

Brandon Beane & Co. have generally been content to shop in the middle class of free agency for the majority of the GM's tenure. It has usually worked. Sean McDermott and his coaching staff deserve plenty of credit for getting more out of players in Buffalo than their former organizations, but the Bills continue to make the sort of reasonable moves they employed to climb to the top of the AFC East.

 

 

I very much agree with this analysis.  The Bills are looking smart so far in what they are doing. Scaffold appears to be a huge upgrade. 

[Simon Says]

48 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

So the priorities that remain are backup QB, CB, TE and Edge. Can we get that done in FA with at least a stop gap before the draft? Fitz, Donte Jackson, lots of options still at TE and Jones/ Hunter or someone of that ilk. Probably in excess of 40 million there.

 

 

No way Bills can or will spend 40 million to fill those 4 spots. Might have to settle for 2,definitely a veteran QB,which would cost,what,4 or 5 million? I would also look at free agent TEs . Then draft WR,DE,CB, T G.

[BillsVet]

38 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Yes.  And that one single move has been held up at the altar by Beane and the Buffalo media as proof that he’s willing to make a big splash - all that jabber about how the conditions were finally there for Beane to pull the trigger.  Hasn’t done anything like it since.  Meanwhile that kind of maneuver is SOP for many teams.

 

Exactly CT.

 

I had hopes Buffalo would be aggressive this off-season and find another elite player, but so far and through most of the 6 off-seasons they fall back on  safe decisions. The two exceptions (Allen and Diggs) when they went outside the box they found elite players.  Maybe they'll reel in a big fish this week, but seeing their foray in UFA so far I doubt it given their cap space and because...    

 

This team is built in the image of the HC re: both personnel and strategy.  It's his team and while Beane is the GM, it's not in the classic sense like most people might think.  I get the impression after all these off-seasons that Beane is just happy to go along with McCoach's theory of NFL rosters and scheme.   

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

I don't have any complains about any of the individual signings, but I will point out that Beane is running a master class in how NOT to navigate the comp pick process. 

 

Trubisky/Wallace signed for a lot less than I expected so it's not a huge deal, but handing out a bunch of small contracts like we have this offseason is the worst possible strategy for comp picks. 

[chris heff]

19 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

I don't have any complains about any of the individual signings, but I will point out that Beane is running a master class in how NOT to navigate the comp pick process. 

 

Trubisky/Wallace signed for a lot less than I expected so it's not a huge deal, but handing out a bunch of small contracts like we have this offseason is the worst possible strategy for comp picks. 

Comp picks? Anyone drafted after the third round will have a hard time making this team. I suppose comp picks could be used to trade up, but trades take two parties.