Comp picks announced

[Turk71]

Comp picks should be 5th round at the earliest imo, extra 3rd round picks are far too valuable.

[letsgoteam]

Banish the comp!

[ganesh]

6 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

this shiz is stoooooopid! so big damn mystery that nobody understands and can calculate? i trust the league as much as i trust the government

It is the way for this league to keep you interested in the off-season. 

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

even so far. Players we cut don’t count. So no Williams, Klein when they sign. So far we’re even gained 3 lost 3.

 

Gained

Jones 

Settle

McKissic

 

Lost:

Trubisky

Wallace

Phillips

 

Saffold doesn’t count as he was cut by the Titans

 

And that is for next year. Comp picks happen a year out. This free agency period equals next draft. 

[BobbyC81]

So, when you trade for stars like the Rams did to win a title, you also get rewarded with 5 comp picks?

[eball]

Geez, these picks really destroy value in the 4th and 5th rounds.

 

it is a system that’s hard to rationalize.

 

[Clemfield2622]

Comp picks in a league with a cap is a stupid concept.

 

That being said, it's not that hard to understand, yet it's one of the most misunderstood things in the NFL.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

11 hours ago, BuffaninSarasota said:

yes, along with the never-ending Ertz references

First Ertz reference of the thread!!!  That entitles New England to a double secret conditional draft pick.

[NoSaint]

37 minutes ago, BobbyC81 said:

So, when you trade for stars like the Rams did to win a title, you also get rewarded with 5 comp picks?

yes, because you acquire talent via non qualifying methods and often see those guys through the expiration of their contracts so they later do qualify for you on the way out. 
 

 

12 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

this shiz is stoooooopid! so big damn mystery that nobody understands and can calculate? i trust the league as much as i trust the government

minus the websites that can project them at they end of the qualifying window with over 95% accuracy

[BillsShredder83]

6 hours ago, NoSaint said:

yes, because you acquire talent via non qualifying methods and often see those guys through the expiration of their contracts so they later do qualify for you on the way out. 
 

 

minus the websites that can project them at they end of the qualifying window with over 95% accuracy

Can you link one? Surprised we're just finding this out then a year later.

[NoSaint]

42 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Can you link one? Surprised we're just finding this out then a year later.

I can’t vouch for this particular one, just the first of many to pop up:

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/2022-nfl-draft-compensatory-pick-projections-for-every-team
 

it’s relatively simple. You total up qualified signings vs losses and the net is the volume of picks… 

 

if you lost more you reduce the lost list by cancelling similar value players on the two lists

 

the remaining guys get slotted up by average salary against thresholds for each round. Not publicly shared but it’s basically in line annually with a couple percentage points increase to go with salary cap inflation

 

so most good projections nail the volume of picks and only really miss on round if the guy is right on the cusp of the projected value. Essentially just missing where the threshold will land in their projections (ie last year a 7.8m player was the lower round, 8m landed the higher round, so where will an 8.25m guy split to next year)

 

if you follow the process it’s easy and some teams value it enough to put it in high consideration. You have two guys valued the same, go with the one that helps the equation and not just a random gut tie breaker for signings or roster cuts

Edited March 16, 2022 by NoSaint

[ArtVandalay]

20 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

Hope we can take a rest from the Pats comp pick references  for a while..

The worst thing about those is it comes from a complete lack of understanding how things work. 

 

Patriots did an excellent job playing the comp pick game with their roster moves and valued players with that in mind.  It's smart calculated chess moves by their front office. 

[TBBills]

2 minutes ago, ArtVandalay said:

The worst thing about those is it comes from a complete lack of understanding how things work. 

 

Patriots did an excellent job playing the comp pick game with their roster moves and valued players with that in mind.  It's smart calculated chess moves by their front office. 

They had Brady which is the only reason they were able to get Comp picks. They also didn't do much with them.

[ArtVandalay]

3 minutes ago, TBBills said:

They had Brady which is the only reason they were able to get Comp picks. They also didn't do much with them.

They still have the whole defensive side of the ball and offensive players to... Brady, or any franchise QB helps in that manner, but there is way more to it than that. They made all their personnel moves with that calculation in mind and played the game better than anyone.  It was a concerted calculated effort to work the system. 

 

 

[gonzo1105]

With McKissic backing out the Bills are back on the comp board for next year

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

To the system 

 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Two questions WRT Comp Picks

 

Will Levi Wallace help in securing comp picks for next year since he was undrafted?  Thought I read at one time only applies to drafted players?

 

And anyone have any insight as to how's it looking overall right now for picks for next year based on who's gone and who's been signed?  Williams, Star, Mongo, and Beasley don't count at all as they were cut.

 

Phillips, 3rd rounder and Mitch T 1st round help, Breida was undrafted.  But offset by Von Miller and OJ Howard both 1st rounders, Johnson 3rd round, plus at least another 4th and 5th rounder in Crowder and Jones.  If Hughes signs with another team he was 1st rounder.

 

Based on above, thinking overall, not likely to get much in the way of picks if any??

[MrEpsYtown]

Zero chance of a comp pick. 

[Fan in Chicago]

On 3/16/2022 at 12:15 PM, NoSaint said:

I can’t vouch for this particular one, just the first of many to pop up:

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/2022-nfl-draft-compensatory-pick-projections-for-every-team
 

it’s relatively simple. You total up qualified signings vs losses and the net is the volume of picks… 

 

if you follow the process it’s easy and some teams value it enough to put it in high consideration. You have two guys valued the same, go with the one that helps the equation and not just a random gut tie breaker for signings or roster cuts

Not to me. NFL math makes my head hurt - the cap calculations, comp formulae are dense to say the least. 

If NFL math was a subject in engineering school, I would have accepted Transport Phenomena and partial differential equations more willingly. 

 

🙂

[gonzo1105]

12 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Two questions WRT Comp Picks

 

Will Levi Wallace help in securing comp picks for next year since he was undrafted?  Thought I read at one time only applies to drafted players?

 

And anyone have any insight as to how's it looking overall right now for picks for next year based on who's gone and who's been signed?  Williams, Star, Mongo, and Beasley don't count at all as they were cut.

 

Phillips, 3rd rounder and Mitch T 1st round help, Breida was undrafted.  But offset by Von Miller and OJ Howard both 1st rounders, Johnson 3rd round, plus at least another 4th and 5th rounder in Crowder and Jones.  If Hughes signs with another team he was 1st rounder.

 

Based on above, thinking overall, not likely to get much in the way of picks if any??

it has nothing to do with where a guy was drafted. The Bills have gained 5 qualifying Free Agents and lost 4. We get no comp picks

 

Gained

Miller

Howard

Crowder

Jones

Settle

 

Mancz, D. Johnson, Marquel Lee won’t end up counting because they received the minimum 

 

Lost:

Phillips

Wallace

Trubisky

 

Brieda may or may not qualify. Heard 1 year 3.1 million which would qualify but we’ll see on those numbers