McDermott’s plan for a pass rush IMO

[MrEpsYtown]

1 hour ago, JohnNord said:

The problem is that all 3 are question marks.   

 

Rosseau has the best chance.  He is already good at setting the edge and you could imagine his pass rush skills getting better.

 

I think at this point AJ Epinesa is a JAG.   Maybe the last DE you keep on a 53 man roster because he players special teams.  
 

We don’t know enough about Boogie yet.
 

I do think the long term was plan was to be set at DE in the future with these picks.  But I’m not sure that will be the case

I think Epenesa is a 3-4 5 tech end. He just doesn’t have any burst or bend. I wonder if there is a trade to be had with a team that is switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4 like the Vikings. 

[97bills]

7 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, I think the plan for the pass rush is about what you say, and it's pretty obvious. 

 

McDermott wants pressure, pressure, and more pressure.   He wants it off the edge and up the middle.  And he wants it with four guys.   

 

He like mobile guys on the end, guys who have some strength, some quickness, some speed.  He wants them to be relentless, and he wants them to hold the edge against the run.  He wants the tackles to be strong enough to hold the point of attack, but skilled enough to get upfield so that the QB feels the pressure up the middle and kept step up to avoid the rush from the edge.  

 

Not that that's all that original; it's basic football.  But it's what McDermott strives for.  

 

He has Oliver in the middle, but he really hasn't had a second guy to get pressure inside.  Harry gave him some of that late in the season, and Star on occasion, but he wanted and needed someone more consistent.  

 

I think in his heart of hearts, he doesn't want a star edge rusher or an Aaron Donald.  He doesn't think the model is to have a guy who must be double-teamed constantly.   He wants four guys, each of whom is going to win his one-on-ones sometimes, so that the defense really doesn't know who to double.   With guys who pretty strong and pretty quick (look at all the Bills edge rushers, and even the tackles), he can play games with them, move them around, find ways to create advantages.  

 

I think he has the DEs he wants to work with (for this season; he'll need help there soon), and I think he has guys now who can give him what he wants in the middle.  

 

I think it's amazing how they've been on five-year of continuous upgrades to the roster.  

You lost me when you said he doesn’t want a guy like Aaron Donald 🤔

[Shaw66]

11 hours ago, Tanoros said:

Just to add, he wants pressures because it forces the ball out early, and allows the defense to play back a bit and come forward and make tackles on underneath/intermediate level throws. 
 

The point being, anyone would love more sacks, but our D is geared around pressures minimum and we do that. 

Thanks.

[Shaw66]

9 hours ago, 97bills said:

You lost me when you said he doesn’t want a guy like Aaron Donald 🤔

You know, I've come around to be skeptical about the value of stars at any position other than QB.  Paying top dollar for the best this or that just doesn't seem to work.  A few years ago, however, I would have made an exception for JJ Watt, and now, I'll grant you, I'd make an exception for Aaron Donald.   The guy is a consistent game wrecker.   He's amazing.  

 

But I haven't been talking about what I would do; I've been talking about how McDermott and Beane view it.  If I can see how special Arnold is, McDermott can, too.  When you think about it, however, Donald doesn't fit McDermott's scheme very well.  First, he forces you to abandon the d-line rotation that McDermott thinks is valuable to the team.  If you have Donald, you simply cannot have him sitting on 40-45% of the defensive snaps.   

 

There's more, though.  What happens when you've rebuilt your defensive line approach around Donald and he gets injured?  You've lost the ability to do all the things you on defense, because this guy isn't there demanding double-teams.   With the rotation they play, they can always play it, and an injury to a particular guy doesn't change everything.  

 

Plus, there's this:  I don't know if GMs think about it this way, but I think it's valid to consider how much a player brings you and how much he costs per year.  When you begin measuring average cost per year over the career of a player, it's much much cheaper to get good players in the draft than in free agency.  Look at Allen's cost per year over the first ten years of his career.  He cost $21 million for his first four years and $258 million for his next six.  That's $279 million over ten years, or $28 million a year.  That's much better than the $45 million a year you'd have to pay him if you acquired him in free agency.   So, if you play that out over all your key positions on the team, you can see how much cheaper it is to get your best talent in the draft, rather than free agency.   If you're buying you talent in free agency, you're always paying top dollar, and then the cap destroys your ability to sign all your role players. 

 

So, the Bills look at Aaron Donald (or Kahlil Mack or someone else who was actually available) and they have the discipline to say no, for two reasons:  (1) They don't want to build their defense around one person, because when he goes down you're in trouble, and (2) Long-term cap management dictates that the smart thing to do is find your Aaron Donalds in the draft.  

 

In other words, McDermott's plan is to load his team with Hydes and Hugheses and Milanos, because a team full of those guys can be really good, year in and year out, and then to find his Allens and Donalds in the draft. 

 

And there's another thing in play here.  When the guys you've signed are really good but not the total studs that Donald and some others are, they're less likely to leave in free agency.  The Bills get very good play, but not superstar play, from Hyde and Poyer and Hughes and Milano, and they're all inclined to stay.   Why?   Well, they're not superstars, so other teams are not salivating to sign them at any price when they get to free agency.   That means the Bills don't have write outrageous checks to keep them.  Plus, they like being on the team, they like winning, they like the environment, so they're inclined to stay, because no one else is offering them Fort Knox.  

 

The whole approach is designed to collect the best talent possible over the long-term, and that's done by getting your talent in the draft.  Constantly looking for it in free agency means you're chasing tail, always replacing players and occasionally finding yourself mired in cap hell because one or another of your big-ticket free agents didn't work out.  A disappointing draft pick doesn't cost you nearly as much as a disappointing big-name free agent.   

 

I'm curious to see what McBeane do over the next few years.  Will they maintain their discipline  Or will they begin buying an occasional big-name talent?  I have to say that I agree with many of you who think that when you're as close as the Bills are, there's a lot of reason to look for that guy or two who can push you over the top for a year or two.  Belichick bought shut-down corners that way, and it worked pretty well for him.  

[Einstein's Dog]

17 hours ago, streetkings01 said:

Is to get big physical DT’s that can push the pocket and let the 3 DE’s we drafted get up field and get sacks once the QB’s are forced out the pocket. We’ve been linked to way more DT’s then DE’s. I don’t think DE is that high on McDermott’s wish list. 

No, you've misinterpreted what you've seen and are mistakenly labeling it McDermotts plan.  Yes, he wanted to retool his DTs, try to upgrade in a financially responsible way.  That we see.

 

But, DE is high on the must get list.  Our drafted DEs are not enough.  They will supplement it with the best they think they can do with the financial considerations as part of the equation.  I think they are strongly trying to get a star in here - a C Jones or D Hunter, then maybe a Clowney. 

 

I think a lot of people on here, myself included, are worried the FO/McDermott may get priced out of the names/stars (like what happened last year w JJ Watt).  Then they'll probably go back to a Hughes/Addison type.  It may happen but it doesn't mean it was the plan.

[97bills]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

You know, I've come around to be skeptical about the value of stars at any position other than QB.  Paying top dollar for the best this or that just doesn't seem to work.  A few years ago, however, I would have made an exception for JJ Watt, and now, I'll grant you, I'd make an exception for Aaron Donald.   The guy is a consistent game wrecker.   He's amazing.  

 

But I haven't been talking about what I would do; I've been talking about how McDermott and Beane view it.  If I can see how special Arnold is, McDermott can, too.  When you think about it, however, Donald doesn't fit McDermott's scheme very well.  First, he forces you to abandon the d-line rotation that McDermott thinks is valuable to the team.  If you have Donald, you simply cannot have him sitting on 40-45% of the defensive snaps.   

 

There's more, though.  What happens when you've rebuilt your defensive line approach around Donald and he gets injured?  You've lost the ability to do all the things you on defense, because this guy isn't there demanding double-teams.   With the rotation they play, they can always play it, and an injury to a particular guy doesn't change everything.  

 

Plus, there's this:  I don't know if GMs think about it this way, but I think it's valid to consider how much a player brings you and how much he costs per year.  When you begin measuring average cost per year over the career of a player, it's much much cheaper to get good players in the draft than in free agency.  Look at Allen's cost per year over the first ten years of his career.  He cost $21 million for his first four years and $258 million for his next six.  That's $279 million over ten years, or $28 million a year.  That's much better than the $45 million a year you'd have to pay him if you acquired him in free agency.   So, if you play that out over all your key positions on the team, you can see how much cheaper it is to get your best talent in the draft, rather than free agency.   If you're buying you talent in free agency, you're always paying top dollar, and then the cap destroys your ability to sign all your role players. 

 

So, the Bills look at Aaron Donald (or Kahlil Mack or someone else who was actually available) and they have the discipline to say no, for two reasons:  (1) They don't want to build their defense around one person, because when he goes down you're in trouble, and (2) Long-term cap management dictates that the smart thing to do is find your Aaron Donalds in the draft.  

 

In other words, McDermott's plan is to load his team with Hydes and Hugheses and Milanos, because a team full of those guys can be really good, year in and year out, and then to find his Allens and Donalds in the draft. 

 

And there's another thing in play here.  When the guys you've signed are really good but not the total studs that Donald and some others are, they're less likely to leave in free agency.  The Bills get very good play, but not superstar play, from Hyde and Poyer and Hughes and Milano, and they're all inclined to stay.   Why?   Well, they're not superstars, so other teams are not salivating to sign them at any price when they get to free agency.   That means the Bills don't have write outrageous checks to keep them.  Plus, they like being on the team, they like winning, they like the environment, so they're inclined to stay, because no one else is offering them Fort Knox.  

 

The whole approach is designed to collect the best talent possible over the long-term, and that's done by getting your talent in the draft.  Constantly looking for it in free agency means you're chasing tail, always replacing players and occasionally finding yourself mired in cap hell because one or another of your big-ticket free agents didn't work out.  A disappointing draft pick doesn't cost you nearly as much as a disappointing big-name free agent.   

 

I'm curious to see what McBeane do over the next few years.  Will they maintain their discipline  Or will they begin buying an occasional big-name talent?  I have to say that I agree with many of you who think that when you're as close as the Bills are, there's a lot of reason to look for that guy or two who can push you over the top for a year or two.  Belichick bought shut-down corners that way, and it worked pretty well for him.  

I understand what your saying and I agree on getting overpriced players, but I’m 45 years old now lol and I no how hard it is to win one super bowl, so I just hope we make the right decisions on players and if there is a guy who can help push us over we will do it. There’s a lot of young great QB in the AFC now, I’m just scared we go into next season counting on the young DE with no backup plan. I guess we will see how it lays out. GO Bills 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

21 hours ago, streetkings01 said:

Is to get big physical DT’s that can push the pocket and let the 3 DE’s we drafted get up field and get sacks once the QB’s are forced out the pocket. We’ve been linked to way more DT’s then DE’s. I don’t think DE is that high on McDermott’s wish list. 

 

Offseason isnt over. Also DEs are pricey and we dont have a ton of cap room. If we can land a good End without breaking the bank we'll get him.

 

 

[Shaw66]

43 minutes ago, 97bills said:

I understand what your saying and I agree on getting overpriced players, but I’m 45 years old now lol and I no how hard it is to win one super bowl, so I just hope we make the right decisions on players and if there is a guy who can help push us over we will do it. There’s a lot of young great QB in the AFC now, I’m just scared we go into next season counting on the young DE with no backup plan. I guess we will see how it lays out. GO Bills 

I'm 75 years old.  

 

All I've been doing here is try to explain what McBeane are doing to help understand why you're not likely to see them chase that one "guy who can help push us over."  I don't think it's happening.   McDermott's system is not a "one guy" system, except when it comes to the quarterback. 

[TheBrownBear]

I think you're right, Shaw.  And re-watching the Chiefs game, getting pressure from our front four wasn't the issue.  We were getting tons of pressure on Mahomes, especially early on, we just couldn't close the deal and bring him to the turf.  I don't think our defensive line is the dire situation many on here make it out to be.  I'm much more worried about CB, WR and OL depth at this point.

[LABILLBACKER]

6 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

I think you're right, Shaw.  And re-watching the Chiefs game, getting pressure from our front four wasn't the issue.  We were getting tons of pressure on Mahomes, especially early on, we just couldn't close the deal and bring him to the turf.  I don't think our defensive line is the dire situation many on here make it out to be.  I'm much more worried about CB, WR and OL depth at this point.

That's the problem. We lead the planet in 1000 hurries, pressures and hits. We just get zero sacks. Last I checked Mahomes can still complete a pass when pressured. But I've never heard of a qb in the history of the NFL complete a pass when sacked.  Settling for a philosophy of being content with pressure is not working. 

Edited March 16, 2022 by LABILLBACKER

[billsfan1959]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

You know, I've come around to be skeptical about the value of stars at any position other than QB.  Paying top dollar for the best this or that just doesn't seem to work.  A few years ago, however, I would have made an exception for JJ Watt, and now, I'll grant you, I'd make an exception for Aaron Donald.   The guy is a consistent game wrecker.   He's amazing.  

 

But I haven't been talking about what I would do; I've been talking about how McDermott and Beane view it.  If I can see how special Arnold is, McDermott can, too.  When you think about it, however, Donald doesn't fit McDermott's scheme very well.  First, he forces you to abandon the d-line rotation that McDermott thinks is valuable to the team.  If you have Donald, you simply cannot have him sitting on 40-45% of the defensive snaps.   

 

There's more, though.  What happens when you've rebuilt your defensive line approach around Donald and he gets injured?  You've lost the ability to do all the things you on defense, because this guy isn't there demanding double-teams.   With the rotation they play, they can always play it, and an injury to a particular guy doesn't change everything.  

 

I'm kinda with you here. If you have a generational talent at QB, I think you spend your money wisely in free agency to target those 2nd tier guys to keep upgrading talent across all positions and hope you develop the stars through the draft (e.g., Allen, White) or occasional trade (Diggs). The truth is, game changing talent like Darnold isn't found in free agency, and for every "splash signing" free agent that actually lives up to his contract, I'll show you 50 that don't.

 

6 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

That's the problem. We lead the planet in 1000 hurries, pressures and hits. We just get zero sacks. Last I checked Mahomes can still complete a pass when pressured. But I've never heard of a qb in the history of the NFL complete a pass when sacked.  Settling for a philosophy of being content with pressure is not working. 

 

Buffalo was 10th in sacks last year - and there is a reason Mahomes was only sacked 28 times last season. I'll give you a hint, it was pretty much the reason Allen was only sacked 26 times...

 

Edited March 16, 2022 by billsfan1959

[streetkings01]

Yea we can close this thread lol 

[Big Turk]

Turn Von Miller loose?

[97bills]

5 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm 75 years old.  

 

All I've been doing here is try to explain what McBeane are doing to help understand why you're not likely to see them chase that one "guy who can help push us over."  I don't think it's happening.   McDermott's system is not a "one guy" system, except when it comes to the quarterback. 

You were saying, von miller 

[LeGOATski]

The plan is always to get the best players possible. They don't pigeon hole themselves in the draft or FA with some pre-determined, rigid design.

[hemma]

Oh