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Posted
7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I have answered the question multiple times about what I think the strategy should have been this year. A proven vet edge (maybe one will still arrive?) and a proper upgrade at guard. Some will say we have the latter, I said last week what I thought about Saffold I am not gonna change my view and get the pom poms out just because the Bills signed him. The names I had on the wish list this year were Andrew Norwell and Chandler Jones. 

 

But look I was attacked two years ago for saying Addison was over the hill and on a steep decline. I was proven right. 

 

I was attacked last year for saying Emmanuel Sanders had slowed down and would struggle to hold onto a starting job. I was proven right. 

 

I don't sit here trying to dislike their free agent moves I am just consistent and honest with what I think. In isolation I like the two pick ups at defensive tackle. But the FA modus operandi of hole fillers has given us arguably the deepest roster in football for 2 years running. And depth is great. But difference makers are greater. 

Like a said before I do agree with you on some general points but you can't judge Beane's overall strategy right now. We need to wait. I was banging the drum for top OL FA like no one on this board. If it was Norwell, I'd overpay Norwell. But that is one player. If from any reason he didn't want to come hore, there's nothing Beane could do about it. So maybe Saffold was really best OL FA they could get, in which case they did exactly what you and I wanted them to do.

 

Same with Jones. I still hope he comes. But maybe he signs something like 36/2 with a structure we couldn't afford. We'll see.

 

Or are you saying that you would prioritize Norwell/Jones to the point where you don't care about anything else and just sign total JAGs on vet min on all other positions? Because if not, I don't think there is much to criticize on Settle/DaQuan Jones signings. We needed bodies on DT positions and to me it seems that Beane found reasonably cheap value.

 

But like I said, lets wait until FA is over.

Posted
1 hour ago, RyanC883 said:

o

and both fell for a reason that Bean/some scout missed.  There were some who may have considered them BPA, but Dobbins and Dillion at RB were available when AJ picked, and Gay at LB, and of course Humphry at C with Basham. 

 

if they had those guys as BPA their board was messed up. It seemed clear that Bean wanted Edge and just attacked that.  

Shhh, Beane is never wrong.  Despite the fact he has swung and missed A LOT in his time here.   The DEs are a little young to judge, but based on history it’s hard to just trust they are going to work out.  I do think Groot has extremely high potential, I’m actually pretty thrilled with getting him last year.  Basham was a bad pick, Humphrey should have been the pick.  He would have eliminated the need for Morse or stayed at G and clogged that hole.  Basham is a rotational DE who barely got in the rotation.   In hindsight, AJ was a bad pick too.  I wanted Dobbins bad, so I never cared for the pick and his production isn’t changing that. 

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Posted
5 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

Jesus H! Both players fell below their anticipated Draft value. But you have to follow the team and have an adequate memory to know this.

Morons outnumber knowledgeable football fans here 5-1. I fought a long, losing battle here slappin’ these idiots around. Only a casual fan? Fine. Don’t opine or formulate your posts in question form. Avid fan who doesn’t understand a damn thing about the game or the team but is compelled to vent witless vitriol, stand by to gitcherazz kicked.

#ChandlerMotto

That damn constitution...

Hey, it's a fan board. And as unfortunate as it may be, any social platform gives equal weight to nonsense and scholarship. Is what it be. Some of us fall in the middle of football wonks and casual fans, which is how I would characterize myself. But after following the team since 1963, I think I've seen it all. I'm a big fan of McBeane, but I reserve the right to decry moves I just hated, like taking Bashem over Creed, a guy who sits a lot of games over a 10 year starter. I believe in my heart this was our year to go to the SB, but even after living though all the monumental fails of this franchise, 13 seconds is the deepest self-inflicted wounds we've suffered. This board is a gift for us to vent, learn and sometimes suffer fools. Just sayin'. 

Posted

as much as I luv Harry, he priced himself out of our range, esp year 1, he did have some injury issues and was light for 1 tech DT.

Jones is 30 pounds heftier and In 2021, Jones had 23 pressures and a career high 69.4 pass rush grade...run-plugger with better interior pass rush skills than what we had and should compliment Ed Oliver to play freerer-quicker...

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Posted
2 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

if they had those guys as BPA their board was messed up. It seemed clear that Bean wanted Edge and just attacked that.  

Ryan, can you explain to me your definition of BPA as well as your process for putting together a draft board?

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Posted
3 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

o

and both fell for a reason that Bean/some scout missed.  There were some who may have considered them BPA, but Dobbins and Dillion at RB were available when AJ picked, and Gay at LB, and of course Humphry at C with Basham. 

 

 


 

You’re referring to how the players have turned out in the NFL after the fact m, with benefit of hindsight, rather than how they were ranked by most outlets and analysts prior to the draft.

 

Epenesa was absolutely thought to be a first round pick, with most mock drafts having him gone by pick 32. He was the number one player left on the “best remaining players” list on both NFLN and ESPN. You can use hindsight now to say the Bills should’ve taken a running back, but that doesn’t mean the RBs were BPA. Dillon, in particular, had a round 3-4 grade and was DEFINITELY not BPA:

 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/a.j.-dillon/32004449-4c23-7740-624c-afbd67329c54

 

I’ll agree that Humphrey would’ve been a better pick than Basham, but again, value wise, they were neck and neck.

 

You don’t get to use hindsight to revise what players’ draft night value was thought to be or agreed upon by mostly every analyst and outlet.

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Posted
2 hours ago, Green Lightning said:

That damn constitution...

Hey, it's a fan board. And as unfortunate as it may be, any social platform gives equal weight to nonsense and scholarship. Is what it be. Some of us fall in the middle of football wonks and casual fans, which is how I would characterize myself. But after following the team since 1963, I think I've seen it all. I'm a big fan of McBeane, but I reserve the right to decry moves I just hated, like taking Bashem over Creed, a guy who sits a lot of games over a 10 year starter. I believe in my heart this was our year to go to the SB, but even after living though all the monumental fails of this franchise, 13 seconds is the deepest self-inflicted wounds we've suffered. This board is a gift for us to vent, learn and sometimes suffer fools. Just sayin'. 

 

I thought Creed was BPA over Basham myself.

 

But draft evaluation is an inexact art, and for all we know, input into that evaluation may be one reason Bobby Jones is coaching for the New Jersey Giants (where I wish Daniel Jones the very best of luck, staying clean and upright).

 

PS the Constitution (by which I assume you're alluding to the 1st amendment) "does not ban restraints on speech imposed by private entities".  Don't take this as a gateway to a political discussion, but I regularly exchange PMs with various "passionate individuals" who misunderstand this, so I try to head it off where I can.  I wish the Constitution were better taught in schools.

Posted
1 hour ago, Logic said:


 

You’re referring to how the players have turned out in the NFL after the fact m, with benefit of hindsight, rather than how they were ranked by most outlets and analysts prior to the draft.

 

Epenesa was absolutely thought to be a first round pick, with most mock drafts having him gone by pick 32. He was the number one player left on the “best remaining players” list on both NFLN and ESPN. You can use hindsight now to say the Bills should’ve taken a running back, but that doesn’t mean the RBs were BPA. Dillon, in particular, had a round 3-4 grade and was DEFINITELY not BPA:

 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/a.j.-dillon/32004449-4c23-7740-624c-afbd67329c54

 

I’ll agree that Humphrey would’ve been a better pick than Basham, but again, value wise, they were neck and neck.

 

You don’t get to use hindsight to revise what players’ draft night value was thought to be or agreed upon by mostly every analyst and outlet.

 

This is not revisionist history.   Also, it does not matter what some analyst on ESPN thinks.  These players DROPPED FOR A REASON, and Bean pounced on the falling players both times.  Dobbins would have been a better pick than non-factor AJ, and Humphrey a better pick than Basham.  

3 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

Ryan, can you explain to me your definition of BPA as well as your process for putting together a draft board?

 

Your snarky comment adds little.  Falling players are falling for a reason.  The proof is in the results.  Bean messed up these draft boards, plain and simple.  Perhaps we should give Bean a participation trophy for trying?  

Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

This is not revisionist history.   Also, it does not matter what some analyst on ESPN thinks.  These players DROPPED FOR A REASON, and Bean pounced on the falling players both times.  Dobbins would have been a better pick than non-factor AJ, and Humphrey a better pick than Basham.  

 

Your snarky comment adds little.  Falling players are falling for a reason.  The proof is in the results.  Bean messed up these draft boards, plain and simple.  Perhaps we should give Bean a participation trophy for trying?  



You're talking about a different thing than what you started out talking about.

The conversation we were originally having was about drafting the BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE. You are now simply making the argument that Beane should've drafted better players or could have done a better job. Those are different arguments. 

You yourself just admitted that Beane "pounced on falling players". That indicates that these players were, as a matter of consensus, ranked highly, and dropped further than expected. Beane "pouncing on them" was therefore a matter of taking the BEST (i.e. highest rated) PLAYER AVAILABLE. Again, remember that you don't get to look at how the players are doing in the NFL after the fact and retroactively decide who was the "best". We're talking about "best player available" as it pertains to pre-draft rankings, not as it pertains to using 20/20 hindsight.

If you want to argue that Beane could/should have chosen better players in the draft, that's fine. That's your opinion to have and I won't argue against it. If you're trying to say that he didn't take the consensus BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE, though, that's just not accurate. Both Epenesa and Basham -- but especially Epenesa -- were considered either the best or certainly within the top two or three players available when they were chosen, based on pre-draft rankings by a variety of sources.

Edited by Logic
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Posted
1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I thought Creed was BPA over Basham myself.

 

But draft evaluation is an inexact art, and for all we know, input into that evaluation may be one reason Bobby Jones is coaching for the New Jersey Giants (where I wish Daniel Jones the very best of luck, staying clean and upright).

 

PS the Constitution (by which I assume you're alluding to the 1st amendment) "does not ban restraints on speech imposed by private entities".  Don't take this as a gateway to a political discussion, but I regularly exchange PMs with various "passionate individuals" who misunderstand this, so I try to head it off where I can.  I wish the Constitution were better taught in schools.

We agree, i guess my point is all social platforms give equal weight to insight as they do drivel. Hazard of the medium I guess. Also, long time observers often keep their eye off the ball to see what the rest of the field is doing other than just watching the ball. Over the years you can learn by paying attention to strategy and formations. Hardly makes us experts, but we're not just shooting from the hip on our posts. That said, a lot sure like to talk crap. They react and not think -- hard to suffer at times. Appreciate your posts. Always patient and sane. 

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Logic said:



You're talking about a different thing than what you started out talking about.

The conversation we were originally having was about drafting the BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE. You are now simply making the argument that Beane should've drafted better players or could have done a better job. Those are different arguments. 

You yourself just admitted that Beane "pounced on falling players". That indicates that these players were, as a matter of consensus, ranked highly, and dropped further than expected. Beane "pouncing on them" was therefore a matter of taking the BEST (i.e. highest rated) PLAYER AVAILABLE. Again, remember that you don't get to look at how the players are doing in the NFL after the fact and retroactively decide who was the "best". We're talking about "best player available" as it pertains to pre-draft rankings, not as it pertains to using 20/20 hindsight.

If you want to argue that Beane could/should have chosen better players in the draft, that's fine. That's your opinion to have and I won't argue against it. If you're trying to say that he didn't take the consensus BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE, though, that's just not accurate. Both Epenesa and Basham -- but especially Epenesa -- were considered either the best or certainly within the top two or three players available when they were chosen, based on pre-draft rankings by a variety of sources.

 

Wrong.  I have not changed my argument.  My argument is that they fell for a reason (which we can see now, and other NFL teams saw), and they were not the BPA at the time they were taken.   

Posted
11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I have answered the question multiple times about what I think the strategy should have been this year. A proven vet edge (maybe one will still arrive?) and a proper upgrade at guard. Some will say we have the latter, I said last week what I thought about Saffold I am not gonna change my view and get the pom poms out just because the Bills signed him. The names I had on the wish list this year were Andrew Norwell and Chandler Jones. 

 

But look I was attacked two years ago for saying Addison was over the hill and on a steep decline. I was proven right. 

 

I was attacked last year for saying Emmanuel Sanders had slowed down and would struggle to hold onto a starting job. I was proven right. 

 

I don't sit here trying to dislike their free agent moves I am just consistent and honest with what I think. In isolation I like the two pick ups at defensive tackle. But the FA modus operandi of hole fillers has given us arguably the deepest roster in football for 2 years running. And depth is great. But difference makers are greater. 

Your right too often for me to doubt you

 

On Saffold.....what is your opinion on him compared to Williams?  I thought we improved in Run Blocking there.  I know Saffold is not what he once was but just in relation to what we had.   Assuming their plan is to play Bates

 

Dawkins

Saffold

Morse

Bates

2nd year RT

 

On our DT's....I thought D. Jones coming in and Harry going out is kind of a wash BUT I thought Jones is one of those block occupiers that actually could help Edmunds

Posted
4 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

Wrong.  I have not changed my argument.  My argument is that they fell for a reason (which we can see now, and other NFL teams saw), and they were not the BPA at the time they were taken.   


With this response, you have once again confirmed that you don't understand the meaning or nuance of the term "best player available". I therefore see no reason to continue this conversation. Good day.

Posted
1 minute ago, Logic said:


With this response, you have once again confirmed that you don't understand the meaning or nuance of the term "best player available". I therefore see no reason to continue this conversation. Good day.

 

good day to you.  You clearly do not understand BPA, unless you go off pre draft rankings, which, BTW, had better players listed above both AJ and Basham (CB Kristen Fulton in 2020 over AJ). 

Posted
1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

Your right too often for me to doubt you

 

On Saffold.....what is your opinion on him compared to Williams?  I thought we improved in Run Blocking there.  I know Saffold is not what he once was but just in relation to what we had.   Assuming their plan is to play Bates

 

Dawkins

Saffold

Morse

Bates

2nd year RT

 

On our DT's....I thought D. Jones coming in and Harry going out is kind of a wash BUT I thought Jones is one of those block occupiers that actually could help Edmunds

 

I do think Saffold is probably even now a better guard than what we fielded last year.... just for me that is a really low bar. Williams as a tackle moved inside for convenience, Bates who played okay down the stretch, Ike who was serviceable and Cody who sucked. I thought interior oline was the biggest weakness on the team and while there is a price at which I'd take Saffold as an upgrade jumping on him so soon makes me think the price will be too high for the level of upgrade he is. 

 

I like the two DTs. They are both good players who fit the scheme. 

Posted
1 hour ago, RyanC883 said:

 

Wrong.  I have not changed my argument.  My argument is that they fell for a reason (which we can see now, and other NFL teams saw), and they were not the BPA at the time they were taken.   

 

So you're arguing that a highly evaluated player immediately loses value if he actually falls in the draft? 

 

Like, if everyone is evaluating Aaron Rodgers as a high 1st round pick but he falls to #24, Green Bay shouldn't pick him because the very fact that he fell means the evaluations were incorrect?  Or Drew Brees falling to 32nd means he was a Bad Draft Pick also?

 

I don't think you can support that argument very well.  Draft evaluation is an art, and different scouts/teams/pundits weight different factors differently, but the mere fact that a highly evaluated player fell in the draft doesn't intrinsicly change their evaluation on a team's draft board. 

 

That's not how it works.

 

(which sometimes has nothing to do with the player, and everything to do with teams factoring need into the equation which they do)

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Posted
5 hours ago, DCofNC said:

Shhh, Beane is never wrong.  Despite the fact he has swung and missed A LOT in his time here.   The DEs are a little young to judge, but based on history it’s hard to just trust they are going to work out.  I do think Groot has extremely high potential, I’m actually pretty thrilled with getting him last year.  Basham was a bad pick, Humphrey should have been the pick.  He would have eliminated the need for Morse or stayed at G and clogged that hole.  Basham is a rotational DE who barely got in the rotation.   In hindsight, AJ was a bad pick too.  I wanted Dobbins bad, so I never cared for the pick and his production isn’t changing that. 

 

Every GM misses.  Just like every QB has incompletions, every lineman misses blocks, every receiver has drops, etc.

It's ridiculous to nitpick every single move that does not work out.  The only real question is whether Brandon Beane is better than other NFL executives.  If you cannot answer that question with an emphatic YES, then I will question your football IQ.

 

The results speak for themselves.  Before Beane/McDermott came along, the Bills were stuck in a 20 year cycle of mostly 6-7 win seasons.

Since they took over, the team has made the playoffs 4 of 5 seasons, with the only miss coming with a rookie QB at the helm.  They made the AFC Championship in 2020, were a coin flip away from going back in 2021 and are once again among the favorites for winning the Super Bowl in 2022.

 

From the start, Beane/McDermott said they wanted to build primarily through the draft.  Outside of rare occasions, they are not going to make a big splash in free agency.  They are going to fill holes with mostly bargain guys, then develop draft picks to become the new cores of the team.  And you really can't judge whether a pick is a bust or not, until at least Year 3.  That's how long it took to get returns on Ed Oliver and Dawson Knox, and now they are key players on the roster.

 

This regime has invested A LOT in the D-Line with draft picks.  The plan was for them to play behind Jerry Hughes/Mario Addison for the first year or two.  Let's see how this season plays out before we judge AJ Epenesa, Greg Rousseau and Boogie Basham.  

 

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Posted
12 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I have answered the question multiple times about what I think the strategy should have been this year. A proven vet edge (maybe one will still arrive?) and a proper upgrade at guard. Some will say we have the latter, I said last week what I thought about Saffold I am not gonna change my view and get the pom poms out just because the Bills signed him. The names I had on the wish list this year were Andrew Norwell and Chandler Jones

 

It's totally understandable not to want to re-type an entire evaluation, but could you link the post where you provided it?

 

I ask because I actually was curious (and respecting of your views) enough to search for it, and this is the only post by you mentioning Saffold that I could find:

"I want to stop bringing in older mid tier guys and try and get 1 or 2 guys who make an impact." isn't much of an evaluation. 

 

Saffold is 3 years older than Norwell, but Saffold did go to the probowl last year (for what that's worth) while Norwell took a paycut to stay on the Jaguar's roster in 2021, and it's not like the Jags OL did a great job with .... well, anything, last year.

 

Again, totally not a problem to refer to your previous evaluation of Saffold, but I did search and this is the only post after last fall, where you corrected a misapprehension about who started on OL for Tenn when we played them.

 

 

Posted
14 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Every GM misses.  Just like every QB has incompletions, every lineman misses blocks, every receiver has drops, etc.

It's ridiculous to nitpick every single move that does not work out.  The only real question is whether Brandon Beane is better than other NFL executives.  If you cannot answer that question with an emphatic YES, then I will question your football IQ.

 

The results speak for themselves.  Before Beane/McDermott came along, the Bills were stuck in a 20 year cycle of mostly 6-7 win seasons.

Since they took over, the team has made the playoffs 4 of 5 seasons, with the only miss coming with a rookie QB at the helm.  They made the AFC Championship in 2020, were a coin flip away from going back in 2021 and are once again among the favorites for winning the Super Bowl in 2022.

 

From the start, Beane/McDermott said they wanted to build primarily through the draft.  Outside of rare occasions, they are not going to make a big splash in free agency.  They are going to fill holes with mostly bargain guys, then develop draft picks to become the new cores of the team.  And you really can't judge whether a pick is a bust or not, until at least Year 3.  That's how long it took to get returns on Ed Oliver and Dawson Knox, and now they are key players on the roster.

 

This regime has invested A LOT in the D-Line with draft picks.  The plan was for them to play behind Jerry Hughes/Mario Addison for the first year or two.  Let's see how this season plays out before we judge AJ Epenesa, Greg Rousseau and Boogie Basham.  

 

I agree with you on everything.  People here want to act like Beane has never missed and every play, no matter how bad, is just somebody not recognizing their talent, because Beane picked them.  It’s insane.   I think he’s had some massive whiffs and they seemed pretty obvious even in the moment.  The big thing though, they identified Allen and made it happen.  That single move pretty much solidifies the team.  Can’t take that away, they really defied a lot of doubters and went for it.  
 

If it weren’t for Allen, we would be talking about a new regime right now.  I don’t think that’s a stretch at all.   No Allen and I don’t think they would have gone after Diggs (though it could easily be argued that Jefferson turned out to be the better value there), aside from that the track record is pretty sketchy at best.  I like Knox, but he is still a work in progress.  I think it’s pretty fair to say that every first and second round pick aside from Allen, has not played up to their draft position.  I know the Oliver fan boys will say that’s wrong, but there’s nothing about his play that says Top 10 pick.   So overall, I think Beane has to be given credit for Allen, Diggs, Knox, Wallace and Brown was a really nice pick.  Allen is the crown jewel, outside of that, his drafting has been pretty average or worse.  He’s really yet to hit on a FA win, I suppose one could argue Williams was a good one, but there’s been a lot more misses than hits there.   His first draft, because of Allen is a winner, the rest? Meh.   He’s put a team on the field that’s pretty starved of star level talent, but McD has gotten a lot out of it.  As a tandem, they have done well.  Would it be enough to beat the prime Patriots? I don’t think so.  Maybe last year, but that’s debatable.

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