It's easy now to see how good teams have an advantage in free agency

[Virgil]

I don't know that I can agree with this take.  We are hearing that players are reaching out to us and might take less money, but nothing has really happened yet.  As of now, we've plugged holes from departing players or re-signed out own.  You could argue that Saffold is an upgrade, but I wouldn't use that to qualify it as a successful day.

 

We honestly don't have the money to know if we would have drawn more attention from big name FA's.

 

I'm still surprised we haven't re-worked Digg's deal to free up some money.  Right now, even if we wanted to bring back Wallace, grab a WR, or Chandler, we couldn't.

[BillsPride12]

2 hours ago, Beast said:

I honestly think the Bills are all in this season to win a Championship. The Rams did it last season and I think Beane and other GM's took notice.....in-season trades is what could catapult the Bills to a Lombardi. Sit back, evaluate your weaknesses, and strike with a re-building team.

 

 

 

 

I really hope your right.  We can't afford to sit back with a conservative approach this offseason when we are this close to breaking through as a true Super Bowl team.

[Motor26]

14 minutes ago, Virgil said:

I don't know that I can agree with this take.  We are hearing that players are reaching out to us and might take less money, but nothing has really happened yet.  As of now, we've plugged holes from departing players or re-signed out own.  You could argue that Saffold is an upgrade, but I wouldn't use that to qualify it as a successful day.

 

We honestly don't have the money to know if we would have drawn more attention from big name FA's.

 

I'm still surprised we haven't re-worked Digg's deal to free up some money.  Right now, even if we wanted to bring back Wallace, grab a WR, or Chandler, we couldn't.

Think Beane is waiting to have a guy commit until he starts adjusting contracts. Guys can’t even officially sign until Wednesday so it’s possible a guy to commit and then the team gets burnt by him bailing.

[Patrick Duffy]

32 minutes ago, Virgil said:

I don't know that I can agree with this take.  We are hearing that players are reaching out to us and might take less money, but nothing has really happened yet.  As of now, we've plugged holes from departing players or re-signed out own.  You could argue that Saffold is an upgrade, but I wouldn't use that to qualify it as a successful day.

 

We honestly don't have the money to know if we would have drawn more attention from big name FA's.

 

I'm still surprised we haven't re-worked Digg's deal to free up some money.  Right now, even if we wanted to bring back Wallace, grab a WR, or Chandler, we couldn't.

I don't think anything was said about taking less money, at least I don't think. It was said a player reached out to Bills wanting to play for a contender and that was about it. Nothing about possibility of taking less money, at least I didn't see that.

 

But I agree with your post, just don't think the money aspect was ever mentioned. I think some maybe just assumed the player reaching out and wanting to sign with a contender possibly assumed they would take less money to play for a contender?

 

Which it's certainly possible a player would take less in this situation, I'm not saying they wouldn't by any means. Just saying to my knowledge it hasn't been anything mentioned about it 

Edited March 15, 2022 by Sheneneh Jenkins

[muppy]

47 minutes ago, Virgil said:

I don't know that I can agree with this take.  We are hearing that players are reaching out to us and might take less money, but nothing has really happened yet.  As of now, we've plugged holes from departing players or re-signed out own.  You could argue that Saffold is an upgrade, but I wouldn't use that to qualify it as a successful day.

 

We honestly don't have the money to know if we would have drawn more attention from big name FA's.

 

I'm still surprised we haven't re-worked Digg's deal to free up some money.  Right now, even if we wanted to bring back Wallace, grab a WR, or Chandler, we couldn't.

winners discount Virgil, is that reality? Im asking because in theory it sounds plausible but in my mind I thought players will go for the payday (all things being equal) any NFL player taking a discount has to be an anomaly imo

 

*shrugs* JJ Watt one example that screams out to me. 

 

I can see a player wanting to play for a contender Yes  but to take less money when your career is nowhere near guaranteed.......This contract stuff is numbers mumbo jumbo to me...I guess a player would at the minimum negotiate and his agent make His money by making the best deal for his client possible.........I dont begin to understand players rationales clearly

Edited March 15, 2022 by muppy

[djp14150]

18 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

All those years we sat here moaning about how the Bills never could sign anyone good in free agency.  Unless the Bills put on a full-court press and spent more money than any other team wanted to spend, the Bills got no one.   All those guys we talked about and hoped for, and Mario Williams was the only one who ever came.  And why did Williams come?   Because the money was the only thing that was important to him. 

 

But when you have an All-star QB and you're going to the playoffs every season, it's different.  A guy like Rodger Saffold, a guy who is facing probably his last opportunity to pick a team while he still has NFL-level ability, looks at Buffalo and says yes, easily.   Why?   Josh Allen.  Mitch Morse.  Aaron Kromer.   Sean McDermott.   It all adds up to a place where he can have success, both personally and possibly in the playoffs.  Could he have gotten more money elsewhere?   Without even seeing the numbers, almost certainly yes.  Some teams are looking to get over the hump and need offensive line help, and some of those have more cap room (probably because they aren't paying their QB over $40 million).  Those teams are like the Bills were ten years ago, and they lose the competition for a lot of guys like Saffold.  

 

Good players late in their careers look at the beating they take playing this game, look at their bank accounts (most of the guys like Saffold are sitting on $10 million or more), and decide that if they're going to continue to take the beating, they'll pass up an extra million dollars to play for a winner.  Landry may very well make a similar decision, wherever he goes.  

 In another thread I said

 

you have 3 FA types

 

1 vets who earned money. They want a ring.

2 players entering UFA wants a pay day

3.  The young players burned on a team or other issues and want a good situation to prove my worth fir a big payday.  
 

star power is drive by good teams you play for and more exposure you get.

[Shaw66]

11 hours ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

I don't think anything was said about taking less money, at least I don't think. It was said a player reached out to Bills wanting to play for a contender and that was about it. Nothing about possibility of taking less money, at least I didn't see that.

 

But I agree with your post, just don't think the money aspect was ever mentioned. I think some maybe just assumed the player reaching out and wanting to sign with a contender possibly assumed they would take less money to play for a contender?

 

Which it's certainly possible a player would take less in this situation, I'm not saying they wouldn't by any means. Just saying to my knowledge it hasn't been anything mentioned about it 

I was certainly talking about players taking less money.   This perception that the players are all about money is just not correct.  djp14150's post, which I don't completely agree with, is generally correct about this point.  

 

For a lot of players in the NFL, veterans, the money becomes less important.  From a simple economic point of view, if you have $10 million in the bank, you're set for life.   That will provide you with $300,000-$500,000 per year of income for the rest of your life and put you in maybe the top 3% of all the people in the US, in terms of income.  Many players recognize this - they have families, homes, and a comfortable lifestyle that they intend to keep for the rest of their lives.   For some of them, when they reach that point, the money they earn on the next contract becomes secondary to other goals.  Their wives aren't stupid - they can count, and they can see that there's a lot of money in the bank and that their family has everything it could want, so they're telling their husbands to do what makes them happy.   It's almost an absurd example, but look at Brady's wife - she's a wife and mother, and she's certainly telling him to do what makes him happy. 

 

As djp said, the players in free agency fall into different categories.   You have guys drafted in the first three rounds, coming off their rookie deals.   If they were drafted in the first round, they may have saved a lot of money, but even those guys don't feel like they're set for life.   So guys coming off their first deals are still looking for a payday.   A guy like Phillips was in that position, and he's going after as big a deal as he can find, provided the team making the offer isn't totally dysfunctional.  Now he has the deal and the guaranteed money and all that, and at the end of that contract, he and his family will be free from monetary concerns.  He might make a different decision if and when he gets to his third deal. 

 

The undrafted free agents, and the journeyman vets on one-year deals, they certainly are looking at the dollars as of critical importance.  If you've played on a bunch of one- and two-year deals, getting paid $1 million to $3 million, and you've been in the league for five years, you haven't collected many big checks, and you don't have many years left, so the dollars are important.

 

But my post was about guys like Saffold.   He's in a different position.  He was cut after receiving $33 million on his last contract, and his previous contracts before that totaled over $79 million.  That's $112,000,000 before he set foot in One Bills Drive.   After tax that's over $50 million, so even super conservatively, he's worth $40 million today, and probably $60 or $70 million.   He knows that he doesn't need another nickel.   

 

Now, some guys in Saffold's position still want every last dollar.  For them, it's like a report card - I want an A, and grades are measured in dollars.   Some guys are greedy.   Some actually have blown millions of dollars and actually need the money.  But for plenty of guys who love playing and love competing, they're looking for something else.   They're looking for a ring, or they're looking to play the best football in their lives, or something.   Like Gronk - he was sitting at home, done with his career, and opportunity to play with Brady brought him back.  Gronk didn't tell Tampa Bay that they had to match Denver's offer or he wasn't coming.

 

Those guys didn't sign with Buffalo ten years ago.  They didn't because all Buffalo could do was offer the most money, and that wasn't what they were looking for.  

 

Now, it's different.  Some of those guys, like Beasley and Sanders, WANT to be in Buffalo, because the Bills are offering what they want.  For receivers, what they want is #17.  But for guys playing other positions, #17 is part of it, and McDermott and the process and the facilities and the commitment of the owner and the clear success they're having is all part of it.  

 

Conversely, that's why the only guys you see the Bills sign coming off their rookie deals are guys who way underperformed their draft expectations.  A guy like Settle has no played like the stud people expected when he was drafted, so he can't command top dollar in market.   The Bills look at him and see a guy with a lot of talent who in the right circumstances could emerge as a big contributor.  They're willing to take that chance on him because, well, they can afford too.  They have a good team already, and if he doesn't work out, they'll still have a good team.   They don't have a lot of money to spend because, well, they spend it on players who make them a good team, like Allen and Diggs.   But Settle isn't commanding top dollar, so the Bills can be players in that auction.

 

But good players who have made a splash playing under their rookie deals but who for some reason aren't getting a big contract from their first team, those guys get premium dollars, and the Bills aren't in a position to sign them.  For example, I think the Bills had the dollars to compete for and sign Hyde and Poyer when they came out, but similar level talent coming off their first year deals now are too pricey for Buffalo.  Hyde and Poyer liked McDermott, but they needed serious dollars when they came, and they got it.  The Bills haven't signed similar talent in recent years.  

 

The Bills model is very clear - they expect to get their talent out of the draft, and they don't intend to pay big dollars for that one guy we might think they need to get over the top.   They won't overpay for short-term talent.   So, for example, they won't overpay for Kahlil Mack, or for Amari Cooper.  They're patient.  They'll trust their scouting and draft guys who they expect will be long-term contributors, they'll save their money to pay it to the guys they drafted (Allen, Milano, Dawkins, and we'll see about Edmunds and Oliver) when they really like a guy.   They'll use free agency to get guys who meet short-term needs, like Saffold, who has the ability to make a big difference on the line for a year, or two, or three, but who eventually will be replaced by someone the Bills draft.  

 

The Bills philosophy will leave us disappointed at this time of year, because we watch all the big-name talent go elsewhere.   We have to remind ourselves that the big-name talent is, by and large, going to teams who are trying to get over the hump, the hump the Bills are now over.  There are exceptions, of course, like when the Chiefs go out and sign a Frank Clark, or the Patriots acquire Randy Moss, the kind of one-off deals that, up until now, the Bills haven't chased.  But mostly, the Bills aren't going after the big names.

 

Instead, what the Bills are asking their fans to do is to recognize that they're building in a different way.  We need to stop and think about what's going on here.   I mean, Saffold is a huge addition (unless it turns out that he's really out of gas).   This is seriously good interior offensive lineman, and pairing him with Morse gives the Bills something they really haven't had in the middle - it's been a revolving door looking for guys who can deliver at guard.   Dawkins seemed to have regained his old form by late last season, and Brown certainly seemed to have earned his spot on the right side, so we're now looking at the possibility of having a seriously good offensive line.  The addition of one guy could very well give Allen more time in the pocket and give Singletary (and whoever is #2) some running room they saw only occasionally up until now.

 

And on defense, the Bills may have added two interior linemen who are better than anyone they had playing in that position, other than Oliver.  If Settle and Jones are both 1-tech guys, they're almost certainly an upgrade from Star and Harry.  They afford the Bills the luxury of continuing to experiment with Basham on the inside, if that's where he fits best. 

 

Those three guys look like serious upgrades at positions of importance.  Not exactly household names (although Saffold has been fairly high profile), but serious football players who should make the team better.  

 

Is building this way, instead of chasing high-priced free agents, the best strategy?   I don't know; I'm just a guy sitting in front of a keyboard.  But it certainly makes sense, and it's hard to argue with the results so far.   (And if you're one of those who DOES argue with the results so far, no Lombardi, no AFC championship, ask yourself this:   Which free agent a year ago would have changed the outcome in those 13 seconds?   Sure, you can argue that if the Bills had gotten Julio Jones, maybe they wouldn't have needed to do anything in the last 13 seconds, but Julio Jones just wasn't realistic.   You can't acquire so much talent that you're just better than everybody else.)

[Patrick Duffy]

28 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I was certainly talking about players taking less money.   This perception that the players are all about money is just not correct.  djp14150's post, which I don't completely agree with, is generally correct about this point.

I was speaking about the original  tweet that was posted reporting a big name reached out to Bills that said nothing about taking less money to sign with a contender, 

[Shaw66]

20 minutes ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

I was speaking about the original  tweet that was posted reporting a big name reached out to Bills that said nothing about taking less money to sign with a contender, 

Oh, sorry.   

 

As I said, some guys are still all about the money, for a variety of reasons.   My point only was that there are veterans out there to who it means very little to leave an extra million bucks on the table.   An extra million bucks doesn't change their lifestyle at all doesn't materially impact how much money his kids will inherit.  

[Einstein's Dog]

16 hours ago, Virgil said:

I don't know that I can agree with this take.  We are hearing that players are reaching out to us and might take less money, but nothing has really happened yet.  As of now, we've plugged holes from departing players or re-signed out own.  You could argue that Saffold is an upgrade, but I wouldn't use that to qualify it as a successful day.

 

We honestly don't have the money to know if we would have drawn more attention from big name FA's.

 

I'm still surprised we haven't re-worked Digg's deal to free up some money.  Right now, even if we wanted to bring back Wallace, grab a WR, or Chandler, we couldn't.

I agree with you, we haven't seen anyone taking less in FA yet.  And I don't think you get big differences.  The advantage would be in getting  someone to choose Buffalo from a set of similar market offers.  FA isn't over yet, and if, for instance, C Jones has a bunch of offers in the same range we might get chosen.

 

Where I do think we have seen the advantages of the winning ways and good culture is in signing our own.  When they like where they are, and are given an early extension at market rates, it's easy to get them to take it.  It's great not to have Josh drama.  Most think Diggs will restructure to market rates.  I'm hoping they quickly work out Knox's extension and contract - although that just jumped up.

 

As for the money, I believe they can rearrange some things for at least one good signing.  The name pass rushers aren't gone yet.

[Einstein's Dog]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

 

The Bills model is very clear - they expect to get their talent out of the draft, and they don't intend to pay big dollars for that one guy we might think they need to get over the top.   They won't overpay for short-term talent.   So, for example, they won't overpay for Kahlil Mack, or for Amari Cooper.  They're patient.  They'll trust their scouting and draft guys who they expect will be long-term contributors, they'll save their money to pay it to the guys they drafted (Allen, Milano, Dawkins, and we'll see about Edmunds and Oliver) when they really like a guy.   They'll use free agency to get guys who meet short-term needs, like Saffold, who has the ability to make a big difference on the line for a year, or two, or three, but who eventually will be replaced by someone the Bills draft.  

 

The Bills philosophy will leave us disappointed at this time of year, because we watch all the big-name talent go elsewhere.   We have to remind ourselves that the big-name talent is, by and large, going to teams who are trying to get over the hump, the hump the Bills are now over.  There are exceptions, of course, like when the Chiefs go out and sign a Frank Clark, or the Patriots acquire Randy Moss, the kind of one-off deals that, up until now, the Bills haven't chased.  But mostly, the Bills aren't going after the big names.

 

Instead, what the Bills are asking their fans to do is to recognize that they're building in a different way.  We need to stop and think about what's going on here.   

 

I don't think that model is clear.  I think you are extrapolating a small sample size.  And even there, I don't know if that is a solid conclusion.  They traded for Diggs, one of the teams top names wasn't from the draft.  Last year, if the reports are to be believed, they were in the running for JJ Watt.

 

The Bills philosophy won't leave us disappointed if they are able to hit a C Jones or Gronk.  The Bills FO has shown they have prices in mind, but that price may be a high one (see Diggs/Watt).  And if we're in the same ballpark as lesser teams then other factors aside from price matter less and the Bills have a good chance IMO (like you were suggesting with your OP).

 

I don't think the method is much different from other teams.  They've bought a WR each year, tried for a DE (Watt), and tried for a TE (Ertz).  I think they'll try for all of them again this year too (except this time the WR will be a high draft choice).  The FO does have price limits and doesn't hit very often on big stars (at least so far).  But the pass rushers haven't settled yet (possible C Jones/Von Miller/Clowney and a few others), and TE Gronk (doubtful)- maybe H Hurst.

[transplantbillsfan]

Didn't feel like starting a thread on its own... but we all heard people saying "Buffalo is a FA destination now," yet we just had an RB choose Washington over us and Chandler Jones choose the Raiders over us.

 

I know McKissic wasn't outbid for... he just chose Washington over Buffalo. No clue what we were offering Jones. Buffalo is clearly the better team, but was this Buffalo vs Las Vegas?

 

I'm not freaking out because we still have Josh Allen and outside of an edge rusher we now need to replace Hughes, a #2 CB and an RB, we don't have any glaring needs. Does anyone have an update on our CAP room with the latest Hyde restructure? I feel like Buffalo has some money to spend. Is Beane trying to pull off some kinda big trade? Is he waiting for the 1st wave of FA to see if guys like Hughes are coming back?

 

Not freaking out, but I really did think we'd be more active, and I am honestly pretty surprised at McKissic's latest choice of Washington over Buffalo. Anyone else?

[mjt328]

2 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Didn't feel like starting a thread on its own... but we all heard people saying "Buffalo is a FA destination now," yet we just had an RB choose Washington over us and Chandler Jones choose the Raiders over us.

 

I know McKissic wasn't outbid for... he just chose Washington over Buffalo. No clue what we were offering Jones. Buffalo is clearly the better team, but was this Buffalo vs Las Vegas?

 

I'm not freaking out because we still have Josh Allen and outside of an edge rusher we now need to replace Hughes, a #2 CB and an RB, we don't have any glaring needs. Does anyone have an update on our CAP room with the latest Hyde restructure? I feel like Buffalo has some money to spend. Is Beane trying to pull off some kinda big trade? Is he waiting for the 1st wave of FA to see if guys like Hughes are coming back?

 

Not freaking out, but I really did think we'd be more active, and I am honestly pretty surprised at McKissic's latest choice of Washington over Buffalo. Anyone else?

 

It was definitely too early to make this statement.  I thought so yesterday.

But don't forget there are usually "stages" to free agency.

 

The guys who sign in the first few days usually get the big contracts, since they are the highest in demand.

 

 

There will be a point when the Jags, Jets, etc. run out of money.  That's when the value deals will start popping up.  Many guys will re-sign with their former teams, realizing the market wasn't as great as they hoped for.  

 

[oldmanfan]

Still clearing the space he’d need to make a big signing, if he sees the right guy.