Be Active Early or Wait Market Out- Just Don't Repeat Recent FA Periods

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, Midwest1981 said:

With our roster this close (arguably 13 seconds of inexplicable coaching from a SB)- and with other potential AFC contenders already making critical moves- clearly I hope Buffalo doesn't stand pat as FA opens tomorrow.  But if they do wait out the bigger names/contracts, waiting until the second/third wave(s) of FA when the egregious contracts have been weeded out and bargains become possible, isn't the worst idea.  Repeating recent activity & philosophy would be.

 

Since 2018 Buffalo has been aggressive early- but for exactly the wrong guys:  middling guys, at best, who nevertheless didn't sign contracts reflecting that status.  Since both McDermott and Beane have been here, here is a list of guys we've signed in the first 1-2 days FA to meaningful contracts (meaning multiple years at anywhere from $5-10 million per):

 

2018:

 

DE Trent Murphy (3/22.5; $10.375 mill guaranteed)

DT Star Lotulelei (5/50; $25 mill guaranteed)

 

2019:

 

OC Mitch Morse (4/44.5; $26.175 mill guaranteed)

WR Cole Beasley (4/29; $14.4 mill guaranteed)

WR John Brown (3/27; $10 mill guaranteed)

 

2020:

 

DE Mario Addison (3/30.45; $15.25 mill guaranteed)

DT Vernon Butler (2/15; $9.3 mill guaranteed)

DT Quinton Jefferson (2/13.5; $8.56 mill guaranteed)

OLB A.J. Klein (3/18; $9.7 mill guaranteed)

 

Note:  ILB/ST Tyler Matakevich (2/7.15; $3.45 mill guaranteed) falls just below parameters set.

 

2021:  None; Emmanuel Sanders & Mitch Trubisky signed to one-year contracts.

 

Morse hasn't been a bargain (was highest-paid center at time of signing) and neither Beasley nor Brown will likely complete their contracts.  But 2019 was clearly a class that yielded very good results relative to the $$$ doled out.  But 2018 & 2020 were FA periods badly squandered involving significant money on players who haven't simply earned it. 

 

I know we're differently positioned now than in 2018 (2018 was Allen's rookie year & we had $50 mill in dead cap in a throwaway season) and 2020 (we were just emerging).  But there is simply no excuse to dole out these sort of deals for this caliber of players.  All you do when you sign these sort of guys is start thinking when the earliest you can get out of their contracts is.  And which of these guys has this question not been frequently asked?

 

We're too close to defend sitting out this week as competitors get better.  But our FA approach under McBeane, which has been both aggressive AND poorly targeted, remaining in place would be a worse outcome.  Let's hope they've learned and are ready to build on the still remarkable roster they've assembled.

 

 

 

 

 

I don't care when we get guys. I care that they do what the FO wants done at a good to excellent level.

 

 

Morse, Beasley, Brown, Matakevich were solid contracts. Morse has been a good pass-blocker and helped keep Allen healthy.

 

Not completing a contract doesn't mean it was a bad contract. Some contracts that don't get completed are good. Some are bad. Beasley's first two years he was a crucial piece, helping Allen stay safe and learn the game. He's apparently lost some athleticism and at this point is overvalued, but he sure wasn't before.

 

Jefferson could easily have been a really good contract but injuries and Lotulelei's output meant they couldn't use him the way he should've been used, as a chess piece outside and at 3-tech.

 

Instead he was a consistent DT. That's not how he would have been best used. The Raiders used him this was in 2021 and he's been really good. It's too bad couldn't, but it wasn't so much the contract that hurt as it was how bad luck elsewhere forced us to use him. Addison may have been a bit overpaid but no so badly. His contract 

 

Murphy wasn't worth the money. Neither was Butler.

 

Klein has been a good player, perhaps a bit overpaid. Matakevich also.

 

Lotulelei has been better than most want to admit. He's been a very solid space-eater, a role that McDermott needs filled on this defense and it's visible that when out this team has allowed teams to run quite a bit more efficiently. Overpaid, though, particularly as he was unavailable so much last year.

 

Overall, probably overpaid. But that's what you have to do on the first day or two. It's how it works. Players work like dogs their whole careers to get to a point where teams feel they need to get them the first day or two or not at all. If signed there they'll get a really good second contract.

 

 

[TampaBillsJunkie]

Sign Gronk, Chandler Jones.  Kirk

If the price is right:  Marlon Mack, Norwell, DJ Reed. 

Trade or Cut: Beasley, Star

Retain: Bates, Zimmer, Boettger,  Wallace, McKenzie, Phillips

Don't retain:  Addison, Hughes, Butler, Sanders, Mongo and the remaining FA's

 

I think Trubisky will go somewhere to start, so I'd like to keep him but its probably not going to happen. 

Bring in: Tyrod, Geno or Mariota to be the backup.

 

 

 

[Coach Tuesday]

47 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I don't care when we get guys. I care that they do what the FO wants done at a good to excellent level.

 

 

Morse, Beasley, Brown, Matakevich were solid contracts. Morse has been a good pass-blocker and helped keep Allen healthy.

 

Not completing a contract doesn't mean it was a bad contract. Some contracts that don't get completed are good. Some are bad. Beasley's first two years he was a crucial piece, helping Allen stay safe and learn the game. He's apparently lost some athleticism and at this point is overvalued, but he sure wasn't before.

 

Jefferson could easily have been a really good contract but injuries and Lotulelei's output meant they couldn't use him the way he should've been used, as a chess piece outside and at 3-tech.

 

Instead he was a consistent DT. That's not how he would have been best used. The Raiders used him this was in 2021 and he's been really good. It's too bad couldn't, but it wasn't so much the contract that hurt as it was how bad luck elsewhere forced us to use him. Addison may have been a bit overpaid but no so badly. His contract 

 

Murphy wasn't worth the money. Neither was Butler.

 

Klein has been a good player, perhaps a bit overpaid. Matakevich also.

 

Lotulelei has been better than most want to admit. He's been a very solid space-eater, a role that McDermott needs filled on this defense and it's visible that when out this team has allowed teams to run quite a bit more efficiently. Overpaid, though, particularly as he was unavailable so much last year.

 

Overall, probably overpaid. But that's what you have to do on the first day or two. It's how it works. Players work like dogs their whole careers to get to a point where teams feel they need to get them the first day or two or not at all. If signed there they'll get a really good second contract.

 

 

But part of the OP’s point is that you don’t have to go big on Day 1 of FA - but if you do, and you’re probably going to have to overpay, sign the right guys.  There are opportunity costs involved in signing the wrong guys, even if you don’t vastly overpay.  I know you don’t hate that Star contract, whereas I think it’s the worst free agent contract in franchise history - mainly because of opportunity cost involved.  That stupid signing has come back to bite them each of the past now THREE offseasons.  When you consider the moves they couldn’t make because they felt the need to chase Star, that deal has been an abject disaster.  Slightly overpaying do-called ST mavens means they didn’t allocate the money to positions of greater value.  
 

And relatedly - can you think of a single recent Bills free agent signee who has actually out-performed his contract?  There have been none of them which is very odd.  The only recent FA to out-perform has been Poyer, who predated Beane - and as a result of all of that Poyer successfully leveraged for a raise last offseason.

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, Midwest1981 said:

With our roster this close (arguably 13 seconds of inexplicable coaching from a SB)- and with other potential AFC contenders already making critical moves- clearly I hope Buffalo doesn't stand pat as FA opens tomorrow.  But if they do wait out the bigger names/contracts, waiting until the second/third wave(s) of FA when the egregious contracts have been weeded out and bargains become possible, isn't the worst idea.  Repeating recent activity & philosophy would be.

 

Since 2018 Buffalo has been aggressive early- but for exactly the wrong guys:  middling guys, at best, who nevertheless didn't sign contracts reflecting that status.  Since both McDermott and Beane have been here, here is a list of guys we've signed in the first 1-2 days FA to meaningful contracts (meaning multiple years at anywhere from $5-10 million per):

 

2018:

 

DE Trent Murphy (3/22.5; $10.375 mill guaranteed)

DT Star Lotulelei (5/50; $25 mill guaranteed)

 

2019:

 

OC Mitch Morse (4/44.5; $26.175 mill guaranteed)

WR Cole Beasley (4/29; $14.4 mill guaranteed)

WR John Brown (3/27; $10 mill guaranteed)

 

2020:

 

DE Mario Addison (3/30.45; $15.25 mill guaranteed)

DT Vernon Butler (2/15; $9.3 mill guaranteed)

DT Quinton Jefferson (2/13.5; $8.56 mill guaranteed)

OLB A.J. Klein (3/18; $9.7 mill guaranteed)

 

Note:  ILB/ST Tyler Matakevich (2/7.15; $3.45 mill guaranteed) falls just below parameters set.

 

2021:  None; Emmanuel Sanders & Mitch Trubisky signed to one-year contracts.

 

Morse hasn't been a bargain (was highest-paid center at time of signing) and neither Beasley nor Brown will likely complete their contracts.  But 2019 was clearly a class that yielded very good results relative to the $$$ doled out.  But 2018 & 2020 were FA periods badly squandered involving significant money on players who haven't simply earned it. 

 

I know we're differently positioned now than in 2018 (2018 was Allen's rookie year & we had $50 mill in dead cap in a throwaway season) and 2020 (we were just emerging).  But there is simply no excuse to dole out these sort of deals for this caliber of players.  All you do when you sign these sort of guys is start thinking when the earliest you can get out of their contracts is.  And which of these guys has this question not been frequently asked?

 

We're too close to defend sitting out this week as competitors get better.  But our FA approach under McBeane, which has been both aggressive AND poorly targeted, remaining in place would be a worse outcome.  Let's hope they've learned and are ready to build on the still remarkable roster they've assembled.

 

 

 

 

 

That 2018 class was terrible and the lost cap space is still hurting them now............and it came after Beane had spent about 8 months telling us how badly the prior regime had handle contracts.    

 

 

1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Post more often.  Spot on.  Many of Beane’s free agent signings have been on par with those of his predecessors at OBD.  When you consider that Poyer and Hyde were pre-Beane acquisitions it really highlights the issue - this much-hyped pro personnel department has yet to earn its money or reputation to date.  This is really a critical offseason and they cannot afford to repeat past mistakes - it will end up all on the shoulders of JA17 yet again.

 

And where the prior regime had found gems like Lorenzo Alexander and Zach Brown for dirt cheap.........Lorax became DPOY candidate and Brown lead the NFL in tackles..........and then they signed Hyde and Poyer on reasonable contracts that they outplayed.

 

But the moment Beane came in they started paying $6M out to reserve LB AJ Klein and reserve CB Josh Norman........and $7.5M to swing tackle Ty Nesekhe.........clear and obvious over-payments.

 

The only great value Beane has found in UFA was Daryl Williams 1 year deal in 2020............everyone else he's paid top dollar for or outright overpaid.

 

They have been bad at finding value.

[Coach Tuesday]

55 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

That 2018 class was terrible and the lost cap space is still hurting them now............and it came after Beane had spent about 8 months telling us how badly the prior regime had handle contracts.    

 

 

 

And where the prior regime had found gems like Lorenzo Alexander and Zach Brown for dirt cheap.........Lorax became DPOY candidate and Brown lead the NFL in tackles..........and then they signed Hyde and Poyer on reasonable contracts that they outplayed.

 

But the moment Beane came in they started paying $6M out to reserve LB AJ Klein and reserve CB Josh Norman........and $7.5M to swing tackle Ty Nesekhe.........clear and obvious over-payments.

 

The only great value Beane has found in UFA was Daryl Williams 1 year deal in 2020............everyone else he's paid top dollar for or outright overpaid.

 

They have been bad at finding value.

And even Williams then ate himself from an underpaid tackle to an overpaid guard.

[Mr. WEO]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

2019 was a good group. The rest not so much.

 

I don't think they needed to make Morse the highest paid Center in the league.

 

They paid Brown 19 million for 1 above average season and 24 total games.

 

Beasley was m one well spent. 

[MrEpsYtown]

20 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

I don't think they needed to make Morse the highest paid Center in the league.

 

They paid Brown 19 million for 1 above average season and 24 total games.

 

Beasley was m one well spent. 

I think they did have to overpay for Morse. There were multiple teams in on centers that year, with Paradis being the other guy, and you had to convince him to leave KC. Morse also gave Allen a level of stability that I think really helped the QB develop. Pairing a young QB with a ***** center is one of those things that is overlooked, but can be pretty significant. 

[Mr. WEO]

5 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I think they did have to overpay for Morse. There were multiple teams in on centers that year, with Paradis being the other guy, and you had to convince him to leave KC. Morse also gave Allen a level of stability that I think really helped the QB develop. Pairing a young QB with a ***** center is one of those things that is overlooked, but can be pretty significant. 

 

No they didn't.  KC didn't want him and let him walk because he had missed 14 games in his last 2 seasons with the Chiefs.  They won the SB with his backup/replacement as soon as he was gone.  

 

They didn't have to pair him with a **** Center.  But as this is a thread looking back, they didn't get value making Morse the highest paid, I think.  Jenkins is a Pro Bowler in GB.

[GunnerBill]

41 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I think they did have to overpay for Morse. There were multiple teams in on centers that year, with Paradis being the other guy, and you had to convince him to leave KC. Morse also gave Allen a level of stability that I think really helped the QB develop. Pairing a young QB with a ***** center is one of those things that is overlooked, but can be pretty significant. 

 

Yea there were. It was a hotter than normal year for centers in FA. 

15 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

No they didn't.  KC didn't want him and let him walk because he had missed 14 games in his last 2 seasons with the Chiefs.  They won the SB with his backup/replacement as soon as he was gone.  

 

They didn't have to pair him with a **** Center.  But as this is a thread looking back, they didn't get value making Morse the highest paid, I think.  Jenkins is a Pro Bowler in GB.

 

Has he been totally worth the contract in pure play on the field? No. But one of Josh's biggest struggles as a rookie was protections. He didn't understand them. They had to go out and get a top vet FA center to do that to bring Josh along. They could not afford to just draft a Jenkins (who I agree is an excellent player). They overpaid for Morse but it is exactly the sort of overpayment that you should make when you have a QB on a rookie deal and in particular one who needed help with the protections. You don't fail to make that upgrade because you are worried about overpaying. 

Edited March 13, 2022 by GunnerBill

[Dopey]

2 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

But part of the OP’s point is that you don’t have to go big on Day 1 of FA - but if you do, and you’re probably going to have to overpay, sign the right guys.  There are opportunity costs involved in signing the wrong guys, even if you don’t vastly overpay.  I know you don’t hate that Star contract, whereas I think it’s the worst free agent contract in franchise history - mainly because of opportunity cost involved.  That stupid signing has come back to bite them each of the past now THREE offseasons.  When you consider the moves they couldn’t make because they felt the need to chase Star, that deal has been an abject disaster.  Slightly overpaying do-called ST mavens means they didn’t allocate the money to positions of greater value.  
 

And relatedly - can you think of a single recent Bills free agent signee who has actually out-performed his contract?  There have been none of them which is very odd.  The only recent FA to out-perform has been Poyer, who predated Beane - and as a result of all of that Poyer successfully leveraged for a raise last offseason.

It's amazing how people 💩 the star contract. He was the rock of our dline until covid. Quite a few naysayers admitted this when he missed the season. You could see the difference on the field vs complaining about the numbers he "didn't put up". He gave us exactly what the staff wanted. The fact that a lot of people just looked at #s means they miss the boat. Now, if he was brought in as a sack artist, that would be a reason to complain. That was not the case.

[Mark Vader]

I don't concern myself too much with the 2018 group because the Bills only had so much money to spend and they were not going to make any splash signings.

 

2019 is when we had plenty of money to spend.

[Coach Tuesday]

50 minutes ago, Dopey said:

He was the rock of our dline until covid. 

Lol wut?

 

He was the Rock of Nothing.

Edited March 13, 2022 by Coach Tuesday

[Mr. WEO]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea there were. It was a hotter than normal year for centers in FA. 

 

Has he been totally worth the contract in pure play on the field? No. But one of Josh's biggest struggles as a rookie was protections. He didn't understand them. They had to go out and get a top vet FA center to do that to bring Josh along. They could not afford to just draft a Jenkins (who I agree is an excellent player). They overpaid for Morse but it is exactly the sort of overpayment that you should make when you have a QB on a rookie deal and in particular one who needed help with the protections. You don't fail to make that upgrade because you are worried about overpaying. 

 

 

I'm sayin g they jumped the gun on giving him that much.  He was injured and SB ready teams don't typically let high quality O-linemen walk out the door.   Mahomes was a young QB as well, but the Chiefs felt comfortable with a backup calling the protections.  

 

Matt Paradis was at least as good and took less money to sign with the Panthers dumpster fire.

 

 

 

Edited March 13, 2022 by Mr. WEO

[Dopey]

2 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Lol wut?

 

He was the Rock of Nothing.

IMO, this statement shows you're not on the same page as the staff and you should drop "Coach" from your screen name. Again, JMO.

[MrEpsYtown]

3 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

I'm sayin g they jumped the gun on giving him that much.  He was injured and SB ready teams don't typically let high quality O-linemen walk out the door.   Mahomes was a young QB as well, but the Chiefs felt comfortable with a backup calling the protections.  

 

Matt Paradis was at least as good and took less money to sign with the Panthers dumpster fire.

 

 

 

Paradis took less but he has been awful and then tore his ACL. Even though we paid a bit more, we def got the right guy and it has totally worked out. 

[GunnerBill]

9 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

I'm sayin g they jumped the gun on giving him that much.  He was injured and SB ready teams don't typically let high quality O-linemen walk out the door.   Mahomes was a young QB as well, but the Chiefs felt comfortable with a backup calling the protections.  

 

Matt Paradis was at least as good and took less money to sign with the Panthers dumpster fire.

 

 

Mahomes had already taken the step he was ahead of Allen at that point without any doubt both in terms of play and understanding. Were there legit reasons that KC were willing to let Morse walk? Yes. Did the Bills arguably give him too much money? Yes. But it was critical that they landed one of the two big fish in that market to help their young QB and if they had to overpay so be it. And Morse has started most games in his 3 years here and played reasonably. 

[No_Matter_What]

14 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I think they did have to overpay for Morse. There were multiple teams in on centers that year, with Paradis being the other guy, and you had to convince him to leave KC. Morse also gave Allen a level of stability that I think really helped the QB develop. Pairing a young QB with a ***** center is one of those things that is overlooked, but can be pretty significant. 

This.

13 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea there were. It was a hotter than normal year for centers in FA. 

 

Has he been totally worth the contract in pure play on the field? No. But one of Josh's biggest struggles as a rookie was protections. He didn't understand them. They had to go out and get a top vet FA center to do that to bring Josh along. They could not afford to just draft a Jenkins (who I agree is an excellent player). They overpaid for Morse but it is exactly the sort of overpayment that you should make when you have a QB on a rookie deal and in particular one who needed help with the protections. You don't fail to make that upgrade because you are worried about overpaying. 

And this. Absolutely. Signing Morse was absolutely crucial for Allen and his contract was one of the best Beane ever signed. Slight overpaying of top FA is inevitable.

[JohnNord]

On 3/13/2022 at 8:12 AM, Midwest1981 said:

With our roster this close (arguably 13 seconds of inexplicable coaching from a SB)- and with other potential AFC contenders already making critical moves- clearly I hope Buffalo doesn't stand pat as FA opens tomorrow.  But if they do wait out the bigger names/contracts, waiting until the second/third wave(s) of FA when the egregious contracts have been weeded out and bargains become possible, isn't the worst idea.  Repeating recent activity & philosophy would be.

 

Since 2018 Buffalo has been aggressive early- but for exactly the wrong guys:  middling guys, at best, who nevertheless didn't sign contracts reflecting that status.  Since both McDermott and Beane have been here, here is a list of guys we've signed in the first 1-2 days FA to meaningful contracts (meaning multiple years at anywhere from $5-10 million per):

 

2018:

 

DE Trent Murphy (3/22.5; $10.375 mill guaranteed)

DT Star Lotulelei (5/50; $25 mill guaranteed)

 

2019:

 

OC Mitch Morse (4/44.5; $26.175 mill guaranteed)

WR Cole Beasley (4/29; $14.4 mill guaranteed)

WR John Brown (3/27; $10 mill guaranteed)

 

2020:

 

DE Mario Addison (3/30.45; $15.25 mill guaranteed)

DT Vernon Butler (2/15; $9.3 mill guaranteed)

DT Quinton Jefferson (2/13.5; $8.56 mill guaranteed)

OLB A.J. Klein (3/18; $9.7 mill guaranteed)

 

Note:  ILB/ST Tyler Matakevich (2/7.15; $3.45 mill guaranteed) falls just below parameters set.

 

2021:  None; Emmanuel Sanders & Mitch Trubisky signed to one-year contracts.

 

Morse hasn't been a bargain (was highest-paid center at time of signing) and neither Beasley nor Brown will likely complete their contracts.  But 2019 was clearly a class that yielded very good results relative to the $$$ doled out.  But 2018 & 2020 were FA periods badly squandered involving significant money on players who haven't simply earned it. 

 

I know we're differently positioned now than in 2018 (2018 was Allen's rookie year & we had $50 mill in dead cap in a throwaway season) and 2020 (we were just emerging).  But there is simply no excuse to dole out these sort of deals for this caliber of players.  All you do when you sign these sort of guys is start thinking when the earliest you can get out of their contracts is.  And which of these guys has this question not been frequently asked?

 

We're too close to defend sitting out this week as competitors get better.  But our FA approach under McBeane, which has been both aggressive AND poorly targeted, remaining in place would be a worse outcome.  Let's hope they've learned and are ready to build on the still remarkable roster they've assembled.

 

 

 

I would disagree with the 2019 FA class which I feel was largely successful.  But you are spot on about the rest.  
 

The Bills have not spent their cap space wisely on FA’s.  I’ve contended that Star Lotulelei’s deal was among the biggest mistakes Beane has made since taking over.  The 2020 FA was especially overpriced and bad.  
 

I think the Bills off-season will largely resemble what we saw last year - a few middling FA’s.  Maybe even a QB2.  But anyone thinking that Beane is going to be making a splash will be disappointed.

[djp14150]

On 3/13/2022 at 8:12 AM, Midwest1981 said:

With our roster this close (arguably 13 seconds of inexplicable coaching from a SB)- and with other potential AFC contenders already making critical moves- clearly I hope Buffalo doesn't stand pat as FA opens tomorrow.  But if they do wait out the bigger names/contracts, waiting until the second/third wave(s) of FA when the egregious contracts have been weeded out and bargains become possible, isn't the worst idea.  Repeating recent activity & philosophy would be.

 

Since 2018 Buffalo has been aggressive early- but for exactly the wrong guys:  middling guys, at best, who nevertheless didn't sign contracts reflecting that status.  Since both McDermott and Beane have been here, here is a list of guys we've signed in the first 1-2 days FA to meaningful contracts (meaning multiple years at anywhere from $5-10 million per):

 

2018:

 

DE Trent Murphy (3/22.5; $10.375 mill guaranteed)

DT Star Lotulelei (5/50; $25 mill guaranteed)

 

2019:

 

OC Mitch Morse (4/44.5; $26.175 mill guaranteed)

WR Cole Beasley (4/29; $14.4 mill guaranteed)

WR John Brown (3/27; $10 mill guaranteed)

 

2020:

 

DE Mario Addison (3/30.45; $15.25 mill guaranteed)

DT Vernon Butler (2/15; $9.3 mill guaranteed)

DT Quinton Jefferson (2/13.5; $8.56 mill guaranteed)

OLB A.J. Klein (3/18; $9.7 mill guaranteed)

 

Note:  ILB/ST Tyler Matakevich (2/7.15; $3.45 mill guaranteed) falls just below parameters set.

 

2021:  None; Emmanuel Sanders & Mitch Trubisky signed to one-year contracts.

 

Morse hasn't been a bargain (was highest-paid center at time of signing) and neither Beasley nor Brown will likely complete their contracts.  But 2019 was clearly a class that yielded very good results relative to the $$$ doled out.  But 2018 & 2020 were FA periods badly squandered involving significant money on players who haven't simply earned it. 

 

I know we're differently positioned now than in 2018 (2018 was Allen's rookie year & we had $50 mill in dead cap in a throwaway season) and 2020 (we were just emerging).  But there is simply no excuse to dole out these sort of deals for this caliber of players.  All you do when you sign these sort of guys is start thinking when the earliest you can get out of their contracts is.  And which of these guys has this question not been frequently asked?

 

We're too close to defend sitting out this week as competitors get better.  But our FA approach under McBeane, which has been both aggressive AND poorly targeted, remaining in place would be a worse outcome.  Let's hope they've learned and are ready to build on the still remarkable roster they've assembled.

 

 

 

Times have changed.  They are a very good team that players feel they can go to fir a ring.  If they have already gotten paid, a lower salary is fine.  If they are just entering UFA they are more focused on money unless they feel they want to go to a better team and get noticed for a short 2 yr contract then cash out.

[Midwest1981]

20 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

But part of the OP’s point is that you don’t have to go big on Day 1 of FA - but if you do, and you’re probably going to have to overpay, sign the right guys.  There are opportunity costs involved in signing the wrong guys, even if you don’t vastly overpay.  I know you don’t hate that Star contract, whereas I think it’s the worst free agent contract in franchise history - mainly because of opportunity cost involved.  That stupid signing has come back to bite them each of the past now THREE offseasons.  When you consider the moves they couldn’t make because they felt the need to chase Star, that deal has been an abject disaster.  Slightly overpaying do-called ST mavens means they didn’t allocate the money to positions of greater value.  
 

And relatedly - can you think of a single recent Bills free agent signee who has actually out-performed his contract?  There have been none of them which is very odd.  The only recent FA to out-perform has been Poyer, who predated Beane - and as a result of all of that Poyer successfully leveraged for a raise last offseason.

You correctly interpreted what I wrote- thanks.  I certainly don't mind early aggressiveness- and I realize that unavoidably you're paying a premium in FA when you're acting early because if a player doesn't get an offer they like early there's no really for them to sign so soon.  But if we're acknowledging we'd like to be immediately aggressive and inevitably overspending will be part of the equation, we need to plainly be smartly with whom we're handing this money to.  The caliber of guys we've signed early- even setting aside names, just considering giving a third linebacker (Klein) a significant contract when three linebackers predominantly aren't on the field, as well as a DE turning 33 before the season (Addison two years ago) a sizable deal, a contract that was renegotiated one year into it- well, it just doesn't justify the aggressiveness.

 

I realize I have the benefit of hindsight and we know now that most of these didn't work out as hoped.  But in fairness, many of these were questioned at the time, especially the amount Star received as a one-dimensional DT, and in fairness, sometimes even amateurs like we us fans actually DO get things right.  I remember in 2014 when we gave former 2008 1st-round guard Chris Williams a decent-sized deal and most of us derided it, calling it too much for a guy with his resume.  Many Bills fans said to "Trust the front-office; this is their job and they know more than you."  Undoubtedly that's true but we still cut Williams after one year of that four year contract.

1 hour ago, JohnNord said:

I would disagree with the 2019 FA class which I feel was largely successful.  But you are spot on about the rest.  
 

The Bills have not spent their cap space wisely on FA’s.  I’ve contended that Star Lotulelei’s deal was among the biggest mistakes Beane has made since taking over.  The 2020 FA was especially overpriced and bad.  
 

I think the Bills off-season will largely resemble what we saw last year - a few middling FA’s.  Maybe even a QB2.  But anyone thinking that Beane is going to be making a splash will be disappointed.

I just hope that if we do bring in players you could characterize as "middling," as I did, that we do it once the market has settled.  Those players can help us- every player I mentioned actually HAS helped us at one time or another.  They're not devoid of usefulness but the contract needs to be commensurate to what the player will realistically provide for us (if not just be good value period where we get more than what we pay for- under Beane, there hasn't been much of that, outside of Beasley and Darryl Williams, IMO).

Edited March 14, 2022 by Midwest1981