ROSCOE P. COE TRAIN Posted May 6, 2005 Share Posted May 6, 2005 An NFC pro player scout has agreed to provide Fanball readers with analysis of significant fantasy players. Each week, the scout will describe the players' strong points, weaknesses, current value, and long-term prognosis. You can help choose which player will be dissected by using the email address at the bottom of this article. This week, our scout examines new Bills starting quarterback, J.P. Losman. His Game Losman is an extremely athletic 6-2, 217-pound quarterback. The Bills' new starting quarterback has a long and lean frame with average body strength. He has good straight line speed (4.68) to scramble outside the tackles and quick footwork get into his drops. In terms of throwing, Losman stands tall in the pocket and shows his best progression reads in the shotgun formation. He has an extremely quick release and shows flashes of elite ability to hit receivers on timing routes. However, he will tap the ball at times as he locks on a receiver, allowing the defensive back an additional split second to break on the ball. He throws a tight spiral and has very good arm strength on short and intermediate routes. At the collegiate level he showed the ability to make all throws, but Losman has yet to showcase his downfield arm strength and appears unconfident with his ability to stretch the field. Though he looked confident in the preseason, Losman appeared to rush through his progressions and locked on his receivers too often. He appeared overwhelmed by the speed of the game, made poor decisions at times, and forced balls into high traffic areas – very typical for a young quarterback with limited reps. On the positive side, he does show good field awareness and displays the ability to consistently move the chains. He has quick footwork to escape the pocket and create second chance opportunities – showing some likeness to Denver quarterback Jake Plummer in this respect. Losman is not a natural ball carrier like a Michael Vick or Donovan McNabb, but the Bills use him well on bootlegs and play action fakes out of the pocket and put him in situations to either throw on the run or gain ground with his speed. He is an unpolished runner who takes a lot of big open field hits and tends to take on defenders head on, rarely sliding to protect himself. Although he shows good toughness, he also shows a lack of maturity and puts himself at risk every time he runs with the ball. He is extremely tough and will stand in the pocket and take a big hit. He has an excitable personality on the field and plays with a high level of energy. Today This former Tulane standout was a first round draft pick, 22nd overall, by the Bills in the 2004 Draft. Losman was the first quarterback drafted by Buffalo since Jim Kelly was picked with the 14th overall selection in 1983. He started in 27 of 38 games at Tulane, spending both his freshman and sophomore seasons as the back-up to current Redskins starter Patrick Ramsey. He finished his collegiate career with 6,754 yards, 60 touchdowns, and only 27 interceptions, setting a school record for the lowest interception percentage (2.73) in school history. He capped off a successful career with an outstanding senior season, leading Conference USA in touchdown passes with 33 and became one of only three quarterbacks in school history to throw for over 3,000 yards in a career. Although he flashed escapeability, Losman was not a threat with his legs, averaging just over one yard per attempt, but managed to sneak in the end zone on 10 different occasions. The honeymoon period of Losman's brief rookie campaign started well – he completed nine of 11 passes for 78 yards in parts of only two preseason games. But, his early success came to a quick halt after colliding with teammate Troy Vincent in practice and suffering a broken left fibula. He returned in the second half of the regular season, but only to play in parts of (4th quarter mop-up duty) four already decided games. He finished the regular season 3 of 5 for 32 yards, 0 touchdowns, one interception, and a quarterback rating of 39.2. Long Term Prognosis After missing the playoffs for the third consecutive season and finishing the season ranked 25th in offense, the Bills released veteran Drew Bledsoe in the offseason and named the unproven Losman as the starter. As an insurance policy, the Bills signed veteran Kelly Holcomb away from the Browns to provide competition and veteran guidance. The Bills have surrounded Losman with a talented cast of offensive players, including receivers Eric Moulds, Lee Evans, and Josh Reed, as well as 1,000 yard rusher Willis McGahee. J.P. will continue to improve and adapt to the pro game with reps – through off-season workouts, mini-camps, and getting the majority of playing time in training camp. Don't count on him to be a consistent rushing threat, but defenses will have to account for his ability to escape the pocket and create second chances by making tough throws on the run. He is unproven, but has all the physical tools to become a winning quarterback in the NFL. There are sure to be growing pains and plenty of mistakes in his first year as a starter – and it wouldn't be surprising if Holcomb made a handful of starts while the "rookie" goes through a few rough patches. Like any quality quarterback, it takes time to learn how to become a winner and Losman is no exception to the rule. 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RVJ Posted May 6, 2005 Share Posted May 6, 2005 Finally some football talk. Thanks for posting it. Average strength for an NFL player but above average for a QB IMHO. I think their assessment was fair enough and very objective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ch19079 Posted May 6, 2005 Share Posted May 6, 2005 thanks.. good read. i bet you he will slide now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mickey Posted May 6, 2005 Share Posted May 6, 2005 I think that was a very balanced, objective look at the current state of JP and his likely prospects for the season. I especially like how they describe the value of his mobility. Basically, he isn't going to beat teams by running the ball but defenses will have to respect that ability, especially hitting receivers on the run. I think too many of us here have raved about the mobility factor as if he were Michael Vick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROSCOE P. COE TRAIN Posted May 6, 2005 Author Share Posted May 6, 2005 agreed, the article was an honest shake. i did NOT like the refrence towards jake plummer however. having jp role out is great - but not as a living. we want him to stay in the pocket and manage the game and let this powerful offensive line grind the line and allow for mcgahee to pop it. then we allow our defense to bend but not break and pray that shoebel and kelsay have carrier 12-15 sacks type years off the edges. in addition to this, we then look for the special teams to be special. field advantage will be paramount with a rookie QB and morman better have eaten his cereal. lindell has to be effect from 40 in - as the redzone - even with parish - will be no fun place for losman to operate. mularky will have to be good with his calls and allow losman to simply manage the game and use willis for 35 - 40 touches per game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake-Fat Sunny Posted May 6, 2005 Share Posted May 6, 2005 Also thanks. I think this cut which sounds accurate to me underscores the importance of the Bills focusing on the team winning first and hoping that JP helps of win second and demanding that JP help us win little or not at all. To me the mantra for correctly developing JP while fortunately at the same time giving us a better chance to win is "doing more with less." To the extent the offense and the playcalls are set up and implemented in a way that uses or demands of JP that he be Jim Kelly, he will first, make more mistakes which cost us Ws as he forces the ball downfield or makes bad decisions because he is a youngster and even worse, he my get himself hurt as he takes a big hit for a couple of meaningless yards. TC/MM will profit most in terms of moving the ball and giving JP some valuable reps by running WM the first play and then running him again on the second play. Obviouls we will need to vary this mantra a little or the opponent will simply line up 7 or 8 in the box, but like Bledsoe last year, the key to getting Ws will be to use the QB's arm as a change-up rather than our primary method of moving the all. One big improvement over last year with Bledsoe is that we will also have the ability to use the QBs legs and running ability as part of the chang-up. If undofortunately the the Bills fall in love with JPs abilities and start to use them as our first choice, the game will begin to look a lot like our lost to Pitts where WM gained 50 yards on an early scoring drive and then TC went away from the run or like Pitts in the playoffs where they relied on the rookie RoboQB to beat NE and they took the rookie QB to the clearners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erynthered Posted May 6, 2005 Share Posted May 6, 2005 However, he will tap the ball at times as he locks on a receiver, allowing the defensive back an additional split second to break on the ball. See, hanging around Drew really helped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astrobot Posted May 6, 2005 Share Posted May 6, 2005 Most significant stat: lowest interception percentage (2.73) in school history. If he runs off streaks of 98 paases without an INT in the pros, I don't think Holcomb will see the field this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckincincy Posted May 6, 2005 Share Posted May 6, 2005 Most significant stat: lowest interception percentage (2.73) in school history. If he runs off streaks of 98 paases without an INT in the pros, I don't think Holcomb will see the field this year. 330127[/snapback] IIRC, didn't the scouts say that JP was the type to take a sack that risk an interception, ala RJ? I think he had something like 40 sacks his last year in school - a bunch for a college season, from a fellow purported to have decent mobility. Raindrops... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
todd Posted May 6, 2005 Share Posted May 6, 2005 I think he had something like 40 sacks his last year in school - a bunch for a college season, from a fellow purported to have decent mobility. Raindrops... 330147[/snapback] I think running out of bounds behind the LoS is considered a sack. This can be a misleading stat for mobile QBs. I don't know if it applies to Losman, because I didn't watch him in college, but thought I might throw that out for consideration. Sunshine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckincincy Posted May 6, 2005 Share Posted May 6, 2005 I think running out of bounds behind the LoS is considered a sack. This can be a misleading stat for mobile QBs. I don't know if it applies to Losman, because I didn't watch him in college, but thought I might throw that out for consideration. Sunshine... 330153[/snapback] I think that's the case in the pro game. Maybe in college, too. Small Craft Warnings... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Gross Posted May 6, 2005 Share Posted May 6, 2005 Losman was the first quarterback drafted by Buffalo since Jim Kelly was picked with the 14th overall selection in 1983. Oopsie...maybe the first "1st round QB" drafted by Buffalo since Jim Kelly, but not 1st QB drafted....Todd Collins comes immediately to mind. Other than that, good read... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sound_n_Fury Posted May 6, 2005 Share Posted May 6, 2005 IIRC, didn't the scouts say that JP was the type to take a sack that risk an interception, ala RJ? I think he had something like 40 sacks his last year in school - a bunch for a college season, from a fellow purported to have decent mobility. Raindrops... 330147[/snapback] You could have played OL for Tulane...that's how bad they were Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckincincy Posted May 6, 2005 Share Posted May 6, 2005 You could have played OL for Tulane...that's how bad they were 330186[/snapback] Didn't they have a strong run game, with Melwede Moore? IIRC he went to Minny last year - dunno for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crazyDingo Posted May 6, 2005 Share Posted May 6, 2005 I cant believe they said JP was like, "...Ron Mexico without the sores." Thats just wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phlegm Alley Posted May 6, 2005 Share Posted May 6, 2005 I cant believe they said JP was like, "...Ron Mexico without the sores." Thats just wrong. 330325[/snapback] On PTI yesterday, Kornheiser mentioned that it was Cinco de Mayo and he started cracking Ron Mexico jokes to Wilbon. Too funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerJ Posted May 6, 2005 Share Posted May 6, 2005 I don't doubt that this scouting report was accurate based on everything that happened up through last season. It does not take into account what JP has done this offseason. I don't think he's really had enough time at the pro level, under pro coaching to really get a complete read on his abilities and potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuckeyeBill Posted May 6, 2005 Share Posted May 6, 2005 I thought that review was pretty good. Informative and pretty accurate. I strongly disagree that Holcomb will make several starts this year. I say that he makes NONE, unless JP gets hurt again. And YES he will slide. I heard that TKO is really harping on him about sliding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROSCOE P. COE TRAIN Posted May 6, 2005 Author Share Posted May 6, 2005 there is no way we do not ride willis for 40-45 touches per game this season. he is that good. further, if they are stacking the box up, then TC needs to get willis out to catch the ball in the flats, set up sceeens or even have willis throwing the ball on flea flickers. willis needs to around the ball - or our offense is like 3 years ago = stagnant and predictable and with no zoomability. JP is to take his chances on 3rd and short to reed or parish and evans and moulds are to stretch the field and force cover 2 nickles to cover them down field, creating mismatches for the slot guys underneth. the loss of the miami te everett hurts as a TE would have been nice to run these same patterns. why we did not go after marcus pollard - of the lions i will NEVER KNOW! age? money? what was TD thinking on this? a **** the bed mistake Also thanks. I think this cut which sounds accurate to me underscores the importance of the Bills focusing on the team winning first and hoping that JP helps of win second and demanding that JP help us win little or not at all. To me the mantra for correctly developing JP while fortunately at the same time giving us a better chance to win is "doing more with less." To the extent the offense and the playcalls are set up and implemented in a way that uses or demands of JP that he be Jim Kelly, he will first, make more mistakes which cost us Ws as he forces the ball downfield or makes bad decisions because he is a youngster and even worse, he my get himself hurt as he takes a big hit for a couple of meaningless yards. TC/MM will profit most in terms of moving the ball and giving JP some valuable reps by running WM the first play and then running him again on the second play. Obviouls we will need to vary this mantra a little or the opponent will simply line up 7 or 8 in the box, but like Bledsoe last year, the key to getting Ws will be to use the QB's arm as a change-up rather than our primary method of moving the all. One big improvement over last year with Bledsoe is that we will also have the ability to use the QBs legs and running ability as part of the chang-up. If undofortunately the the Bills fall in love with JPs abilities and start to use them as our first choice, the game will begin to look a lot like our lost to Pitts where WM gained 50 yards on an early scoring drive and then TC went away from the run or like Pitts in the playoffs where they relied on the rookie RoboQB to beat NE and they took the rookie QB to the clearners. 330106[/snapback] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan Trapped in Pats Land Posted May 6, 2005 Share Posted May 6, 2005 i bet you he will slide now..... 330057[/snapback] How often do you think Wyche brings this up with him? I say daily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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