Bills likely to get a nice draft pick for Trubisky (maybe a third?)

[nucci]

13 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

Weak QB draft coupled with the fact that Trubinsky was actually pretty good in Chicago 

Any team needing a good QB, Trubinsky has to be on the top of the list for UFA's, and $10 million per is cheap for a QB that has and can start for most franchises.

I get it...just funny that no one wanted him last offseason. He basically sits out a whole year and now he's in demand

[MrEpsYtown]

Just now, nucci said:

I get it...just funny that no one wanted him last offseason. He basically sits out a whole year and now he's in demand

 

It was a smart play by his agent. The college crop is underwhelming and Nagy proved that he was the problem. So Trubisky comes out smelling like roses. 

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

As I have read the various opinions posted here, it will be a question of whether the value of an immediate free agent signing is more than the value of the comp pick that it eliminates a year later.  Both options have value but the real question is which has more value at the time the free agent decision is being made.  Beane is clearly smart enough to factor together immediate needs/value and the future value of an extra draft pick.  In a league that has tremendous pressure to win now, I see why most teams discount the value of an extra draft pick in the draft of the following year.  It is also apparent that teams with good rosters may also discount the comp picks because it is very hard for draft picks to make the 53 man roster.  Bad teams needing a complete rebuild can use comp picks to their advantage.  They let some older good players walk and use the extra picks to reload the roster.

 

Since the Bills are clearly in a win now mode with a very good roster, Beane probably places less value on comp picks than an immediate impact free agent.

[TBBills]

3 hours ago, Rigotz said:

 

Whenever I see fans post things like this, I feel embarrassed for them.

Do you not understand the value of having free 3rd round picks, 4th round picks, etc.?

 

Look at the most successful teams in the league the past several decades: Patriots, Ravens, Packers, etc.

They all know how to exploit the comp pick formula.

 

As for the formula, it's not that complicated. Here's a link to show upcoming comp picks.

1) You need to release more players than you sign.

2) If the players you let go (or don't re-sign) get big $$$ in free agency, you get free draft picks.

 

These are not throw-away picks. They matter.

 

2021 Round 3: Spencer Brown

2020 Round 4: Gabriel Davis

2020 Round 6: Tyler Bass

2019 Round 3: Devin Singletary

2019 Round 3: Dawson Knox

2018: Round 3: Harrison Phillips

2018 Round 4: Taron Johnson

2018 Round 5: Wyatt Teller

I feel embarrassed for you for being stuck in the early 2000's

 

The past few years Beane has talked about how this roster makes it hard for later round draft picks to make the team yet you want to not sign any good FA b.c you are worried about someone who has a low chance at even making it.

 

 

You are the same group of people who will complain when they don't sign the FA you want.

 

Edited March 8, 2022 by TBBills

[CorkScrewHill]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

This just IN...

Wow .. once again Mr. Weo comes in with great insights that add so much to the dialogue. Seriously it is not hard to refrain from being a troll .. just practice it. Say to yourself before you post "Hey Mr. Weo is this just me trolling or am I adding value".

[Rigotz]

9 minutes ago, TBBills said:

I feel embarrassed for you for being stuck in the early 2000's

 

The past few years Beane has talked about how this roster makes it hard for later round draft picks to make the team yet you want to not sign any good FA b.c you are worried about someone who has a low chance at even making it.

 

 

You are the same group of people who will complain when they don't don't the FA you want.

 

 

He actually said the exact opposite buddy:

https://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/2021/05/why-bills-are-struggling-to-land-top-udfas-how-brandon-beane-prepared-for-this.html

 

He said we need as many late round picks as possible because it's hard to recruit UDFA's due to the roster being so competitive.

 

Here's another one where he said he traded back last year to get more late round picks for the same reason:

https://buffalowdown.com/2021/05/03/buffalo-bills-nfl-draft-brandon-beane-explains-reason-trade-back/

 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

27 minutes ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

As I have read the various opinions posted here, it will be a question of whether the value of an immediate free agent signing is more than the value of the comp pick that it eliminates a year later.  Both options have value but the real question is which has more value at the time the free agent decision is being made.  Beane is clearly smart enough to factor together immediate needs/value and the future value of an extra draft pick.  In a league that has tremendous pressure to win now, I see why most teams discount the value of an extra draft pick in the draft of the following year.  It is also apparent that teams with good rosters may also discount the comp picks because it is very hard for draft picks to make the 53 man roster.  Bad teams needing a complete rebuild can use comp picks to their advantage.  They let some older good players walk and use the extra picks to reload the roster.

 

Since the Bills are clearly in a win now mode with a very good roster, Beane probably places less value on comp picks than an immediate impact free agent.

 

Generally speaking it's the good teams that take advantage of comp picks. They typically have fewer holes to fill, and less cap space with which to do it. 

 

Here's last years list of comp picks:

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/2022-nfl-draft-compensatory-pick-projections-for-every-team

 

The Lions are really the only bad team on the list. The Rams ended up with the most comp picks, and they went all in to an extent probably never seen before in the NFL (trading away 1sts, big signings, etc.).

 

If Beane signs QUALITY FA's that have an immediate/sizeable impact and we miss out on comp picks due to that reason I'll be fine with that. If he pulls a repeat of 2017 and signs QUANTITY (depth/fringe roster players) and we miss out on 3rd rd comp pick(s) due to that reason I'll be pissed off. It'll be a huge tactical mistake. 

[ALLEN1QB]

I think he is going to do well somewhere. I would venture to say he is probably one of the best backup quarterbacks we have ever had

[junior]

5 hours ago, TBBills said:

That is funny as if they are worried about Comp picks instead of winning a championship. 

 

I know a certain team in our division who mastered the compensatory pick game AND won a lot of championships. 

[nucci]

10 minutes ago, ALLEN1QB said:

I think he is going to do well somewhere. I would venture to say he is probably one of the best backup quarterbacks we have ever had

how do you know this since he never played

[Matt_In_NH]

You have to wait and see guys the Bills sign vs guys lost.

[TBBills]

3 minutes ago, junior said:

 

I know a certain team in our division who mastered the compensatory pick game AND won a lot of championships. 

You mean Brady... how have they done without Brady? Just FYI the comp picks did nothing to help with championships... stop trolling.

[junior]

5 minutes ago, TBBills said:

You mean Brady... how have they done without Brady? Just FYI the comp picks did nothing to help with championships... stop trolling.

 

No, I mean the collective of Brady, Belichick, and the overall organization. What, were you expecting them to win a Super Bowl with Cam and then a rookie QB? lol.

 

For cash-strapped, top teams, comp picks matter. To think they don't is asinine. 

 

 

 

 

[BarleyNY]

2 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Is everybody really okay with losing Trubisky, Wallace, Phillips. Hughes, McKenzie, Addison, Sanders and not replacing them? Like I know we have 9 draft picks, but in order to get the comp pics you have to replace those guys with trades, through the draft, or by signing released players. 

 

Say you lose Trubisky, Wallace, Phillips, and McKenzie and replace them with K. Allen, Donte Jackson, Taven Bryan, Christian Kirk....no draft pick. Hughes, Addison, Sanders won't be signing for a lot imo, so you aren't getting a comp pick. I get that it isn't super complicated, but how are you replacing all these guys? 

 

How do you replace the guys you lose?  

Sure, they have to be replaced.  But they aren’t all going to be replaced by free agents.  Qualified FAs with expiring contracts minus those signed is how it works.  Like contracts cancel out.  So if some of the above are replaced by a draft pick, a player acquired via trade or a non-qualified FA then we should gain that number of comp picks.

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, CorkScrewHill said:

Wow .. once again Mr. Weo comes in with great insights that add so much to the dialogue. Seriously it is not hard to refrain from being a troll .. just practice it. Say to yourself before you post "Hey Mr. Weo is this just me trolling or am I adding value".

 

 

This was typed without any sense of irony, no doubt.

 

You would do better to lay off the redundant LAMP threads.

 

By definition, they add zero value.  What you have posted has been discussed in the other Trubisky thread.

[BarleyNY]

16 minutes ago, nucci said:

how do you know this since he never played

Trubisky’s rise in status is unprecedented for a guy who did nothing but sit out a year.

[DCOrange]

If Trubisky gets $10 mil per year, we’re looking at a 2023 5th round pick if we manage our other moves correctly. I don’t think it’s really worth worrying about unless some dumb team decides to give him $16-20 mil per year which I just can’t see happening. 

[CorkScrewHill]

29 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

This was typed without any sense of irony, no doubt.

 

You would do better to lay off the redundant LAMP threads.

 

By definition, they add zero value.  What you have posted has been discussed in the other Trubisky thread.

I search before I post and most often catch duplication. In general my posts are well received. If you do not like what I post then please feel free to never read anything I post again. I promise not to have my feelings hurt by not having your insightful additions. 

[TBBills]

43 minutes ago, junior said:

 

No, I mean the collective of Brady, Belichick, and the overall organization. What, were you expecting them to win a Super Bowl with Cam and then a rookie QB? lol.

 

For cash-strapped, top teams, comp picks matter. To think they don't is asinine. 

 

 

 

 

Wrong  again.

[Mr. WEO]

6 minutes ago, CorkScrewHill said:

I search before I post and most often catch duplication. In general my posts are well received. If you do not like what I post then please feel free to never read anything I post again. I promise not to have my feelings hurt by not having your insightful additions. 

 

 

you didn't search here: