Bills likely to get a nice draft pick for Trubisky (maybe a third?)

[TheBeaneBandit]

Here come the comp madness again. Go out and get some guys that will help win a championship and screw the comp picks.

[stuvian]

stockpiling QBs is smart business

[MrEpsYtown]

This formula is too complicated to navigate to really use it as a strategy. We have holes to plug, so hopefully the Bills sign some sort of mid to high level free agent and that will cancel out Trubisky. After that, you also have to grab a corner and a DT, plus you need a backup QB. Unless you plug holes with the draft and sit out free agency, it is hard to muster thee picks. 

[BuffalothruMyVeins]

5 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

This formula is too complicated to navigate to really use it as a strategy. We have holes to plug, so hopefully the Bills sign some sort of mid to high level free agent and that will cancel out Trubisky. After that, you also have to grab a corner and a DT, plus you need a backup QB. Unless you plug holes with the draft and sit out free agency, it is hard to muster thee picks. 

It's not that terribly hard to understand, and if you (not YOU, but a front office person) don't have a firm grasp of it, you shouldn't be anywhere near the GM position. 

It's about how many of your players WHOSE CONTRACTS EXPIRE, NOT ARE CUT, and sign elsewhere, vs. how many players you sign WHOSE CONTRACTS EXPIRED FROM THEIR PREVIOUS TEAM, AND NOT CUT. 

What dictates what round compensation you get for your player depends on the contract value. Generally, someone who signs $3M-$5M will get you a 7th, $5M-$7M will get you a 6th, $7M-$9M will get you a 5th, $9M-$13M will get you a 4th and >$13M will get you a 3rd. 

Those numbers are all very general, and can fluctuate quite a bit based on how many qualifying FAs sign with teams in a given offseason.

[BarleyNY]

5 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

I really don't understand the compensatory draft formula. Can someone try to explain it to me?

 

Is it true that coaching staff losses would also be included?

 

If this is the case I sure would expect we'll get at least an extra pick or 2. That means we'd have 10 or 11 picks in the upcoming draft.

 

I anticipate some wheeling and dealing on Beane's part 

Here is an extensive explanation from OverTheCap.

 

Perhaps just as useful here is OTC’s calculation for 2022 comp picks.  Scroll down to see each team’s signings and expiring contracts.  

Edited March 8, 2022 by BarleyNY

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

I find it amusing that a team on the doorstep of its first championship has so many fans wringing their hands over a few mid/late round draft picks as if we’re rebuilding a roster 😂

[MrEpsYtown]

5 minutes ago, BuffalothruMyVeins said:

It's not that terribly hard to understand, and if you (not YOU, but a front office person) don't have a firm grasp of it, you shouldn't be anywhere near the GM position. 

It's about how many of your players WHOSE CONTRACTS EXPIRE, NOT ARE CUT, and sign elsewhere, vs. how many players you sign WHOSE CONTRACTS EXPIRED FROM THEIR PREVIOUS TEAM, AND NOT CUT. 

What dictates what round compensation you get for your player depends on the contract value. Generally, someone who signs $3M-$5M will get you a 7th, $5M-$7M will get you a 6th, $7M-$9M will get you a 5th, $9M-$13M will get you a 4th and >$13M will get you a 3rd. 

Those numbers are all very general, and can fluctuate quite a bit based on how many qualifying FAs sign with teams in a given offseason.

 

You are right. I just don't think Brandon Beane is going to hold off on signing guys he is interested in because he is trying to gather comp picks. It is kind of an untapped thing, but as we improve and start to lose more players, it is more practical to navigate. But I do think he is going to focus on trying to get the best players on the team, rather than trying to signed released guys vs UFAs. Not sure if it is the right move or not, but I feel like it would be low on his list of priorities. JMO

[BarleyNY]

6 minutes ago, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

I find it amusing that a team on the doorstep of its first championship has so many fans wringing their hands over a few mid/late round draft picks as if we’re rebuilding a roster 😂

Allen’s contract fully kicks in next season.  These are picks that can help the Bills stay competitive for the long term as we have to let some good players walk due to cap constraints.   Personally I’d rather be talking about this than “13 seconds” or some combine warrior a handful of posters want to overdraft   

[Rockinon]

Stockpiling draft picks gives you ammunition to bundle picks and trade up. Going to be interesting the next couple of years to see what Beane is able to pull off. This team doesn't really need a lot of draft picks. It just needs a small handful of really good ones.

[The Frankish Reich]

1 hour ago, nucci said:

Amazing how he became a better QB by not playing for a good team

Exactly. Did not take a meaningful snap all season. There's some real Teddy Bridgewater money waiting for you, Mitch!

[Dan Darragh]

5 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

I really don't understand the compensatory draft formula. Can someone try to explain it to me?

The way it works is the league figures how many comp picks Buffalo is entitled to, then it gives them to New England.

[Big Turk]

8 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Beane has to restrain himself from signing too many guys. They can get two good comp picks for Wallace and Trubisky if Beane keeps them neg negative in free agency.

 

Or just until after whatever date that goes to, I think sometime in May, then he can sign whoever.

[Rigotz]

3 hours ago, TBBills said:

That is funny as if they are worried about Comp picks instead of winning a championship. 

 

Whenever I see fans post things like this, I feel embarrassed for them.

Do you not understand the value of having free 3rd round picks, 4th round picks, etc.?

 

Look at the most successful teams in the league the past several decades: Patriots, Ravens, Packers, etc.

They all know how to exploit the comp pick formula.

 

As for the formula, it's not that complicated. Here's a link to show upcoming comp picks.

1) You need to release more players than you sign.

2) If the players you let go (or don't re-sign) get big $$$ in free agency, you get free draft picks.

 

These are not throw-away picks. They matter.

 

2021 Round 3: Spencer Brown

2020 Round 4: Gabriel Davis

2020 Round 6: Tyler Bass

2019 Round 3: Devin Singletary

2019 Round 3: Dawson Knox

2018: Round 3: Harrison Phillips

2018 Round 4: Taron Johnson

2018 Round 5: Wyatt Teller

Edited March 8, 2022 by Rigotz

[MrEpsYtown]

Is everybody really okay with losing Trubisky, Wallace, Phillips. Hughes, McKenzie, Addison, Sanders and not replacing them? Like I know we have 9 draft picks, but in order to get the comp pics you have to replace those guys with trades, through the draft, or by signing released players. 

 

Say you lose Trubisky, Wallace, Phillips, and McKenzie and replace them with K. Allen, Donte Jackson, Taven Bryan, Christian Kirk....no draft pick. Hughes, Addison, Sanders won't be signing for a lot imo, so you aren't getting a comp pick. I get that it isn't super complicated, but how are you replacing all these guys? 

 

How do you replace the guys you lose?  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

3 hours ago, nucci said:

even if they improve the team?

Its about the number not the quality. You have to be net negative. So he just needs to avoid adding too many roster bottom feeders like he did in 2017 costing them a 3rd round comp pick for Gilmore. 

[MrEpsYtown]

22 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Or just until after whatever date that goes to, I think sometime in May, then he can sign whoever.

 

15 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

 

Whenever I see fans post things like this, I feel embarrassed for them.

Do you not understand the value of having free 3rd round picks, 4th round picks, etc.?

 

Look at the most successful teams in the league the past several decades: Patriots, Ravens, Packers, etc.

They all know how to exploit the comp pick formula.

 

As for the formula, it's not that complicated. Here's a link to show upcoming comp picks.

1) You need to release more players than you sign.

2) If the players you let go (or don't re-sign) get big $$$ in free agency, you get free draft picks.

 

Draft picks = good.

 

Draft picks are definitely good. But the good players are gone in May. If you guys want to win a championship you can't worry about the comp picks. Beane needs to assemble the best roster he can going into the draft. I would be good with it if we didn't have so many holes to fill, but as good as this roster is, it is going to be facing a good amount of turnover. Teams like the Pats, Ravens, Titans, and Packers navigate comp picks by just not signing anyone. But the Ravens and Pats suffered because they did not replace the guys they lost and depended on the draft. How would the reaction be here if Beane sits on his hands, sits out free agency and just drafts a bunch of guys? 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

4 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Is everybody really okay with losing Trubisky, Wallace, Phillips. Hughes, McKenzie, Addison, Sanders and not replacing them? Like I know we have 9 draft picks, but in order to get the comp pics you have to replace those guys with trades, through the draft, or by signing released players. 

 

Say you lose Trubisky, Wallace, Phillips, and McKenzie and replace them with K. Allen, Donte Jackson, Taven Bryan, Christian Kirk....no draft pick. Hughes, Addison, Sanders won't be signing for a lot imo, so you aren't getting a comp pick. I get that it isn't super complicated, but how are you replacing all these guys? 

 

How do you replace the guys you lose?  

There are other free agents that will be gone too like Jones, Breida, and Kumerow that can help them stay net negative. You replace them with draft picks, salary cap cuts that are not free agents, and you bring some of them back. They will draft DL, WR, and CB. Sign Gronk. Bring back Phillips and Hughes. Probably bring back Zimmer and Boettger, and maybe Obada too. 

[ddaryl]

2 hours ago, nucci said:

Amazing how he became a better QB by not playing for a good team

Weak QB draft coupled with the fact that Trubinsky was actually pretty good in Chicago 

Any team needing a good QB, Trubinsky has to be on the top of the list for UFA's, and $10 million per is cheap for a QB that has and can start for most franchises.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

4 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

 

Draft picks are definitely good. But the good players are gone in May. If you guys want to win a championship you can't worry about the comp picks. Beane needs to assemble the best roster he can going into the draft. I would be good with it if we didn't have so many holes to fill, but as good as this roster is, it is going to be facing a good amount of turnover. Teams like the Pats, Ravens, Titans, and Packers navigate comp picks by just not signing anyone. But the Ravens and Pats suffered because they did not replace the guys they lost and depended on the draft. How would the reaction be here if Beane sits on his hands, sits out free agency and just drafts a bunch of guys? 

Nobody is saying not to go sign a quality fA or two. What we are saying is dont sign too many roster bottom feeders that could just as easily be filled by UDFA or low round draft picks. Don't cut Haack and sign a FA punter. Just draft one. Decisions like that keep you net negative and still fill the roster.

[MrEpsYtown]

8 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

There are other free agents that will be gone too like Jones, Breida, and Kumerow that can help them stay net negative. You replace them with draft picks, salary cap cuts that are not free agents, and you bring some of them back. They will draft DL, WR, and CB. Sign Gronk. Bring back Phillips and Hughes. Probably bring back Zimmer and Boettger, and maybe Obada too. 

 

4 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Nobody is saying not to go sign a quality fA or two. What we are saying is dont sign too many roster bottom feeders that could just as easily be filled by UDFA or low round draft picks. Don't cut Haack and sign a FA punter. Just draft one. Decisions like that keep you net negative and still fill the roster.

 

I get it, but those are vet minimum type guys so they would not factor in the formula. I am totally ok with him just signing 1 or two impact type free agents, but there are too many holes on the roster and that has never been Beane's MO. I think there is zero chance he goes into the draft without some type of punter, but I may be wrong. I guess it is important to avoid overpaying those bottom feeders so they don't factor into the formula. But I will be shocked if he doesn't address needs in free agency. He has kind of always said he looks at free agency as a way to plug holes so they can draft BPA.