Who will be the #1 pick in the draft?

[HOUSE]

I remember the year I predicted Baker Mayfield.  I told you Cleveland was crazy

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

A tangential thought, but somewhat related, Willis to the Texans in position 3?  I can picture Easterby being giddy over a 'pre-indoctrinated' candidate. 🤨

[mannc]

On 3/6/2022 at 8:25 AM, boater said:

Concur, especially after I read this: https://www.mlive.com/lions/2022/03/oregon-pass-rusher-kayvon-thibodeaux-a-possible-lions-target-withdraws-early-from-nfl-combine.html

I doubt Thibodeaux hurt his draft stock…not that many 260 lb edge rushers running sub-4.6 40s.  Lots of top prospects pass on parts of the combine…

[mannc]

16 hours ago, wppete said:

Malik Willis??? Is this a bad joke? Wow!

It could happen. When is the last time a non-QB went first overall?  2013?

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, mannc said:

It could happen. When is the last time a non-QB went first overall?  2013?

 

In the last decade: 

 

2013 - Eric Fisher

2014 - Jadaveon Clowney

2017 - Myles Garrett

 

One could argue of the three of them (none of them busts) Garrett has proven worth the #1 pick. It also happened three times in the 00s (2000 - Courtney Brown, 2006 - Mario Williams, 2008 - Jake Long) so three times per decade feels about the norm now. It requires both a perceived underwhelming QB class (obviously 2017 wasn't underwhelming in the long term) and a top flight tackle or pass rusher.

Edited March 8, 2022 by GunnerBill

[mannc]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

In the last decade: 

 

2013 - Eric Fisher

2014 - Jadaveon Clowney

2017 - Myles Garrrett

 

One could argue of the three of them (none of them busts) Garrett has proven worth the #1 pick. 

Wasn’t Fisher more or less a bust? I really hate the idea of drafting an O-lineman that high…if I was the Jags, I’d be doing everything possible to trade out of that spot.

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

In the last decade: 

 

2013 - Eric Fisher

2014 - Jadaveon Clowney

2017 - Myles Garrrett

 

One could argue of the three of them (none of them busts) Garrett has proven worth the #1 pick. 

Garrett only worth the number 1 pick if you ignore the QBs they passed on…

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, mannc said:

Wasn’t Fisher more or less a bust? I really hate the idea of drafting an O-lineman that high…if I was the Jags, I’d be doing everything possible to trade out of that spot.

 

Nah, I don't think that would be fair at all. He struggled as a rookie playing right tackle, but then when moved to left tackle he started for seven years at that spot for a regular playoff contender. He was never a top 5 type left tackle but probably a top dozen tackle for seven years, played two contracts, on a contending team. Not worth the #1 pick, that is totally fair, but he wasn't a bust and actually in that 2013 class (which pretty much sucked) he is one of the better players to come from it. 

 

EDIT: As for trading out, I'm sure the Jags would love to. I am just not sure I see a buyer. It would have to be a team that loves Willis but with all the noises being that Carolina are not looking to take a QB, the first team you really need to get in front of is possibly Denver. It might be a Washington type move but I doubt they make it with the owner uncertainty. 

Edited March 8, 2022 by GunnerBill

[GunnerBill]

32 minutes ago, mannc said:

 

Garrett only worth the number 1 pick if you ignore the QBs they passed on…

 

That is a very fair point. He in himself was worth the #1 pick but that doesn't make him the right pick. I said then and I say now they should have picked DeShaun Watson. 

[MrEpsYtown]

43 minutes ago, mannc said:

Wasn’t Fisher more or less a bust? I really hate the idea of drafting an O-lineman that high…if I was the Jags, I’d be doing everything possible to trade out of that spot.

Garrett only worth the number 1 pick if you ignore the QBs they passed on…

 

37 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Nah, I don't think that would be fair at all. He struggled as a rookie playing right tackle, but then when moved to left tackle he started for seven years at that spot for a regular playoff contender. He was never a top 5 type left tackle but probably a top dozen tackle for seven years, played two contracts, on a contending team. Not worth the #1 pick, that is totally fair, but he wasn't a bust and actually in that 2013 class (which pretty much sucked) he is one of the better players to come from it. 

 

EDIT: As for trading out, I'm sure the Jags would love to. I am just not sure I see a buyer. It would have to be a team that loves Willis but with all the noises being that Carolina are not looking to take a QB, the first team you really need to get in front of is possibly Denver. It might be a Washington type move but I doubt they make it with the owner uncertainty. 

 

The problem with the Fisher thing in 2013 is that Lane Johnson went right after, Terron Armstead went in the 3rd and David Bakhtiari went in the 4th. He is very meh when compare to thos guys. When you draft for need and draft guys undeserving of the #1 pick, you make mistakes. I mean we draft EJ Manuel that day, so I guess the joke was on us. What a crap first round. Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins and that's pretty much it. 

 

[GunnerBill]

19 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

 

The problem with the Fisher thing in 2013 is that Lane Johnson went right after, Terron Armstead went in the 3rd and David Bakhtiari went in the 4th. He is very meh when compare to thos guys. When you draft for need and draft guys undeserving of the #1 pick, you make mistakes. I mean we draft EJ Manuel that day, so I guess the joke was on us. What a crap first round. Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins and that's pretty much it. 

 

 

I agree those guys have all been better but nobody had Armstead and Bhaktiari as 1st rounders then so it is a bit hard to bash them for that. Lane I would agree except he has been a RT only. Again I will let the Eagles away with it because he is an all pro and it was a dreadful class but in any other class taking a RT only would not be a good use of a top 10 pick (and Johnson must be because they would otherwise have surely slid him across when Peters went down initially and instead they drafted Andre Dillard and then paid Mailata). 

 

Again Fisher hasn't been a #1 overall pick level player. But it is unfair to describe him as a bust. 

[MrEpsYtown]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree those guys have all been better but nobody had Armstead and Bhaktiari as 1st rounders then so it is a bit hard to bash them for that. Lane I would agree except he has been a RT only. Again I will let the Eagles away with it because he is an all pro and it was a dreadful class but in any other class taking a RT only would not be a good use of a top 10 pick (and Johnson must be because they would otherwise have surely slid him across when Peters went down initially and instead they drafted Andre Dillard and then paid Mailata). 

 

Again Fisher hasn't been a #1 overall pick level player. But it is unfair to describe him as a bust. 

 

I am surprised the Eagles never flipped him to the left side. 

[GunnerBill]

39 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

I am surprised the Eagles never flipped him to the left side. 

 

Me too. 

[YoloinOhio]

 

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

They have also investigated signing Teron Armstead I have that on good authority. I think Kyle Hamilton is the sneaky play here, but Hutchinson is the most likely. 

[YoloinOhio]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They have also investigated signing Teron Armstead I have that on good authority. I think Kyle Hamilton is the sneaky play here, but Hutchinson is the most likely. 

Hamilton is a great prospect but I can’t imagine a safety who ran a slow 40 on the super fast track going #1. I don’t think the 40 time is meaningful to his career projection at DB and he should go top 5 but to be the #1 pick… I do love the idea of pairing Hutchinson with the other Josh Allen. I don’t recall who their new DC is and what scheme he runs though. 

Edited March 9, 2022 by YoloinOhio

[thenorthremembers]

Going to be Neal unless someone trades up.  One of the oldest stories in the book, can hear Kiper now

 

"ya know the Jags got their franchise QB last year, he struggled, he struggled ok.  But last year is last year.  Urban Meyer...gone.  Doug Pederson gets his big ugly to protect Lawrence here, gotta love this pick for the Jaguars"

[GunnerBill]

47 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Hamilton is a great prospect but I can’t imagine a safety who ran a slow 40 on the super fast track going #1. I don’t think the 40 time is meaningful to his career projection at DB and he should go top 5 but to be the #1 pick… I do love the idea of pairing Hutchinson with the other Josh Allen. I don’t recall who their new DC is and what scheme he runs though. 

 

He is a Todd Bowles guy. So a heavy blitzing 3-4 I imagine. Hutchinson is pretty scheme versatile he can play either. It is also, however, a scheme that really prioritises safety play. Think Honey Badger, Jamal Adams, Marcus Maye and Antoine Winfield just in his last 3 stops. I agree with you it would be a surprise #1 pick but I don't think it is totally crazy. 

 

EDIT: Should also say Kayvon Thibodeaux should definitely hope that Hutchinson goes #1 overall. Because if Hutchinson goes #1 then Thibodeaux goes #2. However, if Neal goes #1, Hutchinson #2 then I think you will see Thibodeaux slide a bit and while there are possible landing spots for him inside the top 10 a slide into the early teens would not be unthinkable. 

Edited March 9, 2022 by GunnerBill

[YoloinOhio]

28 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He is a Todd Bowles guy. So a heavy blitzing 3-4 I imagine. Hutchinson is pretty scheme versatile he can play either. It is also, however, a scheme that really prioritises safety play. Think Honey Badger, Jamal Adams, Marcus Maye and Antoine Winfield just in his last 3 stops. I agree with you it would be a surprise #1 pick but I don't think it is totally crazy. 

 

EDIT: Should also say Kayvon Thibodeaux should definitely hope that Hutchinson goes #1 overall. Because if Hutchinson goes #1 then Thibodeaux goes #2. However, if Neal goes #1, Hutchinson #2 then I think you will see Thibodeaux slide a bit and while there are possible landing spots for him inside the top 10 a slide into the early teens would not be unthinkable. 

If he slides to the teens, Beane should try to move up. 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

If he slides to the teens, Beane should try to move up. 

 

In a world where he slides to #12 and Minnesota decide that as a new regime they'd prioritise picks over selecting Thibodeaux (which I'd consider a mistake but let's go with it for a minute) you'd be looking at either our 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounders this year for #12 or possibly a 2nd this year and a 2nd next year as the minimum price to get a deal done. Would you be in at that price?

[YoloinOhio]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

In a world where he slides to #12 and Minnesota decide that as a new regime they'd prioritise picks over selecting Thibodeaux (which I'd consider a mistake but let's go with it for a minute) you'd be looking at either our 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounders this year for #12 or possibly a 2nd this year and a 2nd next year as the minimum price to get a deal done. Would you be in at that price?

It won’t happen of course but at a premium position like that with his talent on a rookie deal yes.