Deep ball accuracy. Josh Allen #1

[Mickey]

Josh Allen, the Harrison Bergeron of the National Football League.

[The Dean]

15 minutes ago, Mickey said:

Josh Allen, the Harrison Bergeron of the National Football League.

 

Welcome to the Monkey House 

[Mr. WEO]

On 3/4/2022 at 3:31 PM, Shaw66 said:

Read it.  It's a study of throws that meet a minimum air yards distance, so no, there are no 5-yard screen passes in this data.

 

One amazing thing is that Allen has the highest completion percentage, the highest accurate throw percentage, and the highest number of accurate throws that were incomplete (I'd guess some of those were throwing into double coverage).  It looks like he was the best deep thrower by far, with only Stafford and maybe Burrow at least within range.  

 

Can't wait to see what it will be like when Allen gets good.  

 

I wonder how many were defended and how many dropped.  It's 11 passes.

 

Also, get Justin Fields out of there with his tiny attempt total.  Come on...

[The Wiz]

47 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

I wonder how many were defended and how many dropped.  It's 11 passes.

 

Also, get Justin Fields out of there with his tiny attempt total.  Come on...

Sample size can be indicative of the player. 

 

It kind of tells you what they are capable of and what they aren't. 

 

 

 

 

[Doc]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

I wonder how many were defended and how many dropped.  It's 11 passes.

 

Also, get Justin Fields out of there with his tiny attempt total.  Come on...

 

It says there were 10 passes defensed.  Likely meaning that the 12 accurate incompletions were drops. 

[ganesh]

On 3/5/2022 at 3:32 AM, The Wiz said:

That's right folks, the best deep ball passer in the league, best qb rating in playoff history and zero MVP votes. 

 

Apparently the voters only watch prime time games. 

 

To be fair to the voters,  Josh and the team played poorly in a stretch wherein they went 3-5 and many of these awards are gauged during that period of time (unfortunate).  They played bad against playoff teams.  They played soft against teams with strong running game.

[Mickey]

6 hours ago, The Dean said:

 

Welcome to the Monkey House 

 

Hi-ho.

[GreggTX]

He was a mile ahead of everyone else too. 67% to 60% for the next tier. This part of his game has seen a huge improvement. I remember his first 2 seasons when he was missing deep balls by a country mile. I've seen many players go from failure to glory, but never like Allen. His degree of improvement is unprecedented -- especially his accuracy.

[Shaw66]

On 3/4/2022 at 4:32 PM, Warcodered said:

Kind of feels like Allen breaks this stat, like he's gotten better dropping it in a bucket but still has room to grow there, but he throws frozen ropes at such a long distance that he throws the whole thing off.

I just happened to see this.  I think you're right about.   He still doesn't get enough air under the balls he throws, and I think he'll continue to learn to do that.   The fact that he doesn't get air under his throws makes this deep-ball accuracy stat even more impressive.  Allen is completing balls downfield, throwing it more or less on a line and hitting guys pretty much in stride.   The high-arcing throwers, like Russell Wilson, look amazing when they drop the ball in, but the truth is that you don't have to be as accurate throwing that way, because you're giving the receiver time to adjust his route and get to the ball where it's coming down.   That is, the way Allen throws requires him to put the ball into a smaller window, and he's still able to do that.  

 

I've been on the Allen bandwagon longer than most people.   What I said about him, probably in his rookie year when we were still comparing QBs in his draft class (I mean, who does THAT any more?) was that Allen had to show he could do things, but that it was clear very early on that he had the highest ceiling of any QB in the draft.    I don't think we've seen his ceiling yet, and that's a pretty amazing thing to say about a guy who is legitimately in the discussion about who's the best player in the league.   Aaron Donald - we've seen the ceiling.   Rodgers?  Seen it.  Mahomes?  I think we've seen it.   Allen?  I think we will see one or more eye-popping seasons that everyone will agree are the best seasons any QB ever had. 

 

I just googled best QB seasons.   Some sight named Young, Montana, Peyton, Brady, and Marino as having the five best.   I'll list them here.   Ask yourself whether you expect Allen to put up a better season than any of these.   I will be amazed if he doesn't top all of these:

 

1. Steve Young, 1994 San Francisco 49ers

(16 games – 3,969 yards, 35 TDs, 10 INTs, 70.3 completion rate, 112.8 passer rating; 293 rushing yards, 7 TDs)

13-3, NFC West champs, beat San Diego in Super Bowl XXIX

MVP, Super Bowl XXIX MVP

 

2. Joe Montana, 1989 San Francisco 49ers

(13 games – 3,521 yards, 26 TDs, 8 INTs, 70.2 completion rate, 112.4 passer rating; 227 rushing yards, 3 TDs)

14-2, NFC West champs, beat Denver in Super Bowl XXIV

MVP, AP Offensive Player of the Year, Super Bowl XXIV MVP

 

3. Peyton Manning, 2013 Denver Broncos

(16 games – 5,477 yards, 55 TDs, 10 INTs, 68.3 completion rate, 115.1 passer rating; rushing TD)

13-3, AFC West champs, lost to Seattle in Super Bowl XLVIII

MVP, AP Offensive Player of the Year

 

4. Tom Brady, 2007 New England Patriots

(16 games – 4,806 yards, 50 TDs, 8 INTs, 68.9 completion rate, 117.2 passer rating; 98 rushing yards, 2 TDs)

16-0, AFC East champs, lost to New York Giants in Super Bowl XLII

MVP, AP Offensive Player of the Year

 

5. Dan Marino, 1984 Miami Dolphins

(16 games – 5,084 yards, 48 TDs, 17 INTs, 64.2 completion rate, 108.9 passer rating)

14-2, AFC East champs, lost to San Francisco in Super Bowl XIX

MVP, AP Offensive Player of the Year

 

With the right talent and the right coaching, Allen is going to have a monster season soon.