Today's Locked On Bills podcast - listen to it

[whorlnut]

27 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

I think the argument is that you could still give up 500 yards and 40 points without committing another $12.7m to the defense especially to a guy who don’t make any big plays. You need guys on defense to make big plays (turnovers, sacks, TFL’s) in order to beat the better offenses.  See Hyde int vs Patriots.  That changed the entire game.  Everything else is kinda spinning your wheels and you might as well spend it on offense.  What good was having the #1 ranked defense vs the Chiefs the last 2 playoffs?  

I’ve said this over and over…you aren’t stopping the chiefs. The only way to “stop” them is to hope they have a bad game. It’s silly to think we can stop that offense when they are firing on all cylinders. 

[Tanoros]

25 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

I think the argument is that you could still give up 500 yards and 40 points without committing another $12.7m to the defense especially to a guy who don’t make any big plays. You need guys on defense to make big plays (turnovers, sacks, TFL’s) in order to beat the better offenses.  See Hyde int vs Patriots.  That changed the entire game.  Everything else is kinda spinning your wheels and you might as well spend it on offense.  What good was having the #1 ranked defense vs the Chiefs the last 2 playoffs?  

Conversely, if they Bills played a different scheme (something like the Bengals) with the same players, could they have been more effective? It’s hard to be much worse in that game. 
 

What route would you go to replace Edmonds this offseason? Do you have any specific players in mind? 
 

We picked up his option and the chanced of a trade are pretty slim, not to mention replacing him with an upgrade or same level of play. 

[BuffaloRebound]

20 minutes ago, Lagoon Blues said:

For everyone that wants to move on from him who do you go get?

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2022-nfl-free-agency-rankings-linebackers

 

Every guy on this list would be significantly cheaper than Edmunds according to their projections.  And there look to be 5-6 MLB’s projected to go in first 3 rounds.  

[Tanoros]

5 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

My point is he won’t be difficult to replace, his absence won’t move the needle in the W/L column, and that money would be better served else where such as on the offensive line or a pass rusher. 

But the money is accounted for already this year. There isn’t much we can do, unless by some rare chance we find a trade partner, but I don’t think that’s very likely. 
 

The chances are we have him for one more year, and then move on. I’ll trust the Bills FO, but I do hope we move on in the end. 

[Tanoros]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2022-nfl-free-agency-rankings-linebackers

 

Every guy on this list would be significantly cheaper than Edmunds according to their projections.  And there look to be 5-6 MLB’s projected to go in first 3 rounds.  

Edmonds salary is already on the books and not going anywhere unless we trade him. Additionally, since we are in our Super Bowl window, we need to look to upgrade our team, and losing Edmonds just to fill in with a rookie is more of a wash than upgrading depth or even making an upgrade at starter. 
 

I wouldn’t be surprised if we took a ILB somewhere early in the drat, we need LBer depth and it’s a good time to try and draft Edmonds replacement. However, we keep Edmonds for the year and move on after. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

36 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

I think the argument is that you could still give up 500 yards and 40 points without committing another $12.7m to the defense especially to a guy who don’t make any big plays. You need guys on defense to make big plays (turnovers, sacks, TFL’s) in order to beat the better offenses.  See Hyde int vs Patriots.  That changed the entire game.  Everything else is kinda spinning your wheels and you might as well spend it on offense.  What good was having the #1 ranked defense vs the Chiefs the last 2 playoffs?  

Oh, I am aware of the argument. We have heard that same line time and again. When the defense plays poorly it's dropped at Edmunds feet. Every time. However, when the big plays happen in this defense be it a sack or turnover...no one wants to acknowledge that this is a 1/11 defense and the reason the play happened (for the most part) is by and large because everyone played their role. 

 

12.7M for a 1 year hit isn't a huge deal. It's not like he's seeing $20M that top LBers would be getting. When the extension is approached if the Bills gave him $12M on a yearly average it's really not a bad deal and as the cap goes up it will be a better valie every year. 

[Tanoros]

2 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

He’s not being traded this year. I’m talking about going forward. 

I see. Well on that I agree

[thenorthremembers]

31 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

Not true. 2020 was our best year and he didnt play

I dont mean record wise.  I mean against the run and freeing up other interior lineman to rush the passer.

[Lagoon Blues]

19 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2022-nfl-free-agency-rankings-linebackers

 

Every guy on this list would be significantly cheaper than Edmunds according to their projections.  And there look to be 5-6 MLB’s projected to go in first 3 rounds.  

Thanks for the list link.  A few interesting ones on there. For your draft part, with the absolute win now window of the team, I don't think you can put a Rookie out there at MLB.  Obviously I admit I am not a guy who really studies players, just guessing finding a unicorn in the 1st probably wont happen. Just my opinion tho.

Edited February 28, 2022 by Lagoon Blues

[BuffaloRebound]

9 minutes ago, Lagoon Blues said:

Thanks for the list link.  A few interesting ones on there. For your draft part, with the absolute win now window of the team I don't think you can put a Rookie out there in MLB.  Obviously I admit I am not a guy who really studies players, just guessing finding a unicorn in the 1st probably wont happen. Just my opinion tho.

Between Milano, Hyde, Poyer, Tre White, and Taron Johnson in the Back 7, I think they could assimilate a rookie LB.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, uticaclub said:

Not true. 2020 was our best year and he didnt play

??

28 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I think Edmunds gets criticism when he plays poorly… not the defense… and nah. I’d rather that $12 million go else where than at the feet of an average MLB. Put that towards a pass rusher, WR, or one of the other game changing positions… not at an average MLB who rarely makes a big play… at least to this point in his career.

It’s not going at his feet, it’s gone into his pocket

45 minutes ago, Tanoros said:

I’ll

Cccccc

[Coach Tuesday]

I would like to formally nominate this thread for the “Weekly TSW Edmunds Thread.”  Do I have a second?  All in favor?

[filthymcnasty08]

This was a great listen:  eye opener on the CB2 topic as it relates to Edmunds.  Thanks!

[RunTheBall]

I listened to it, I wasn’t too impressed with Bruce’s analysis. Now keep in mind I’m just a regular dude who has watched every Bills game for 40 years so my credentials aren’t nearly as impressive as the twitter analysts out there.

 

I liked the Edmunds pick at the time. I’ve been disappointed he hasn’t reached the potential I thought he had. I believe McBeane love him and he’s likely to get extended.

 

Bruce is a little disingenuous in his analysis. He first compares him to Spencer Brown and says Spencer wasn’t very good but because he’s a third round pick the fans were fine with him. I think that’s a little ridiculous because Tremaine isn’t a rookie, he’s got 4 years in the system, and he’s still just maybe a bit above average. He does acknowledge he’d like more from Edmunds but says he’s “fine” with him. What he doesn’t get into is the fact that Tremaine is going to want to be paid like a first round LB who actually makes impact plays, which Tremaine doesn’t. That’s the crux of the whole issue - how much do we pay Tremaine to be average.

 

Bruce did get into this whole idea that we can’t really evaluate linebackers because we don’t know what their actual responsibilities are and we can’t measure the plays where Tremaine causes QB’s to go someplace else because he’s just so awesome doing invisible things that we don’t see but effect the QB. I think that’s BS and can be applied to all those other LB’s who are playing better than Tremaine too. I do think Tremaine has some impact in that regard, but I’d rather a LB who makes impact plays once in a while than a guy that eats space.

 

So bottom line is that analysis didn’t add anything that we haven’t discussed before ad nauseum on this board in a million threads.

Edited February 28, 2022 by RunTheBall

[Max Fischer]

7 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

yeah, agree.  not stumping for either of them; just offer Edmunds a contract commensurate with his 1/11th role on the defense and leave it at that.  If someone offers him Leonard $$ to play the Darius Leonard "superman" dominator run/pass MLB role (which he probably cannot do) then let him take the $$ .   Just like Levi Wallace.   Wallace and Edmunds are just pieces in a scheme, not asked to be dominant (just do your job).   Star, as you say, is a tough one as releasing him will hit the cap hard... McBeanes gotta think on that one... is Star playing only 9 games per season better than taking a $20m (not sure of the #, its pretty big ) cap hit this year.  

 

I'm still amazed that after months (years?) of debating Edmunds that a Bills fan could still suggest that Edmunds will get, or he even expects, "Darius Leonard money."  There is simply no evidence for that scenario.  

 

On the other hand, I think it's possible or even probable that a team will offer Edmunds $15M/year, but I believe it's just as probable that Edmunds would stay for Milano money, which could be fair for both the team and player. 

[Max Fischer]

17 minutes ago, RunTheBall said:

Bruce did get into this whole idea that we can’t really evaluate linebackers because we don’t know what their actual responsibilities are and we can’t measure the plays where Tremaine causes QB’s to go someplace else because he’s just so awesome doing invisible things that we don’t see but effect the QB. I think that’s BS and can be applied to all those other LB’s who are playing better than Tremaine too. I do think Tremaine has some impact in that regard, but I’d rather a LB who makes impact plays once in a while than a guy that eats space.

 

So bottom line is that analysis didn’t add anything that we haven’t discussed before ad nauseum on this board in a million threads.

 

Edmunds is a Bills fan Rorschach. They'll see what they want to see.

 

I believe too many fans expect/want a different style of play and then are down on Edmunds when it doesn't happen. When a player does the same thing for four years and is praised by coaches but criticized by fans, there is clearly something amiss. 

 

I see a very good player because Edmunds does exactly what the coaches ask him to do, which has a huge impact on the entire defensive scheme. If the Bills weren't a Top 3 defense, I'd think, "Whatever he's doing is not making a difference," but the opposite seems to be true. 

 

In the end, I believe the Bills sign him for "Milano money."

[DrDawkinstein]

4 hours ago, Lagoon Blues said:

For everyone that wants to move on from him who do you go get?

 

Klein for this year. He did fine when he stepped in for Edmunds for a couple games last year, and even immediately made some plays in his limited time, which Edmunds rarely does. Plus, Klein is set to make half of what we'll have to pay Edmunds.

 

Then draft a replacement.

[Don Otreply]

I watched it the other day, good points made through out on all aspects of our defenses play making this past season. What I didn’t like is that I was mostly wrong in my perception of our defense, what I did like is that we can spend on the offensive side of the ball mor freely…, 

 

Go Bills!

[RunTheBall]

3 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

What a ridiculous way to evaluate a player…

Just for accuracy’s sake he didn’t use the word “awesome” but that was the vibe I was getting. Felt a little bit like “the average fan doesn’t understand the fine points of LB play that can’t be evaluated by conventional stats”. I get what he was saying but sounded like the “Sammy Watkins is a great decoy, he opens everything up for everyone else” argument

[racketmaster]

7 hours ago, SoMAn said:

What evidence is there that he's a team leader?

He's been tasked with relaying the defensive signals, which is more a product of his position in the middle of the defense than it is about his actual leadership.  I don't personally know Edmunds, but I've never gotten the sense that he's a leader.  When you watch Josh and see the interaction with his teammates, his body language and the reaction he gets screams 'leader'.  When Kyle Williams was on the team, you had no doubt he was a leader on defense. 

 

Some people are born leaders. Edmunds ain't one of them IMO.

 

I would tend to agree with this. The biggest leaders on defense are Poyer and Hyde and it does not seem that anyone else on the teams is even close them in the leadership role.  Not sure who is third as it may have been Hughes or Addison but they are aging out fast.