Today's Locked On Bills podcast - listen to it

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, Max Fischer said:

 

You do realize that Edmunds will be on the team in 2022-23? Klein may be the #1 cut candidate. 

 

 

 

I realize that is the likely way Beane handles it in reality, yes. But I wasnt trying to predict the future. I was addressing the question of "If we trade/cut Edmunds, who can replace him?" being asked as if it's impossible to find another guy to play MLB. We have a guy who can play MLB on the roster right now and he makes half as much as Edmunds. Is it the BEST solution EVER? No, but it's a solution, and I believe a fairly reasonable one for the reasons I listed.

[BuffaloRebound]

Anthony Barr would be at least half the price.  He fits the physical profile of Edmunds.  I’m sure he can be taught to drop back and be in the right spots.  If he makes a play, then we’re ahead of the game.  

[JohnNord]

On 2/28/2022 at 6:34 AM, ProcessTruster said:

Lots of bad blood re: Edmunds and Star on this board.   Today's "locked on Bills" podcast has Joe Marino joined by BruceNolan talking Bills defense ; so much value there I won't repeat it all here.  Marino is big on stats, Nolan is smart and has good takes.  Listen to today (Monday).   Some smart thinking here that will add a lot to this discussion.  For tech phobs out there, just get Stitcher for your phone and search for "Locked on Bills".    Not stumping for all of Marino or Nolan's stuff (some of their content is non football or stuff we already know), but this particular episode was excellent.   

Like them both… I will give it a listen

[BarleyNY]

Was a decent listen.  Interestingly his comment on Edmunds was that he was the best option at MLB for the Bills in 2022.  Under the current circumstances - with his guaranteed $12.7M contract - I think that’s correct.  Not much to be done except draft a developmental backup/replacement.

[Max Fischer]

16 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I realize that is the likely way Beane handles it in reality, yes. But I wasnt trying to predict the future. I was addressing the question of "If we trade/cut Edmunds, who can replace him?" being asked as if it's impossible to find another guy to play MLB. We have a guy who can play MLB on the roster right now and he makes half as much as Edmunds. Is it the BEST solution EVER? No, but it's a solution, and I believe a fairly reasonable one for the reasons I listed.

 

Klien is not a starting MLB and if/when he's released, he'll sign as a backup at a much lower price that his current projected salary. There is a very good reason he's a cut candidate, career backup and the Bills defense would take a significant step down if he was the full-time starter over Edmunds. 

[DrDawkinstein]

23 minutes ago, Max Fischer said:

 

Klien is not a starting MLB and if/when he's released, he'll sign as a backup at a much lower price that his current projected salary. There is a very good reason he's a cut candidate, career backup and the Bills defense would take a significant step down if he was the full-time starter over Edmunds. 

 

And that is where we disagree, and the grey area that drives the discussion and debate here, and brings us back to my first post where I pointed out that Klein stepped in for 2 games and did just as well as Edmunds and even made more significant plays than Edmunds did all year.

 

I agree that the Bills could do much better than Klein as a starter, but I dont think Edmunds is much better than him either. Certainly not at almost 3x the cost.

[BillsFan130]

On 2/28/2022 at 9:04 AM, ScottLaw said:

I’m sure they were(and still are) hoping for the light to go on and his god given physical make up starts to translate on the field playmaking…. Just hasn’t happened yet. 

Yep exactly. Which is why they haven't given him an extension yet.

[Max Fischer]

7 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

And that is where we disagree, and the grey area that drives the discussion and debate here, and brings us back to my first post where I pointed out that Klein stepped in for 2 games and did just as well as Edmunds and even made more significant plays than Edmunds did all year.

 

I agree that the Bills could do much better than Klein as a starter, but I dont think Edmunds is much better than him either. Certainly not at almost 3x the cost.

 

🙄

[Thurman#1]

On 2/28/2022 at 9:03 PM, thenorthremembers said:

Ill listen, I always do.  However, I know what to expect from Nolan.  He is a big Edmunds guy.  Marino is more level headed.   The truth about Edmunds is he is a average middle linebacker that really knows the system.   

 

So the Bills have a hard choice, pay a guy a lot of money who knows your system very well, is a team leader, who has average to above average play at times but is also a complete liability at others.   The Chiefs targeted him big time in yhis years playoffs.   Personally Id try and trade him for a piece on offense.

 

On Star, the team is better when he plays.   Problem is hes missed the better part of the last two seasons and 18 games of that were either his choice or personal reasons.  Its time to move on.

 

 

That isn't the truth. It isn't even the apparent opinion of the Bills. This regime has shown zero indication that they'd pay a non-QB $13M+ for one year for average player. Zero.

 

It's just your opinion. Which you've got a perfect right to, don't get me wrong, but it's not "the truth."

 

And while Edmunds has played so much that we really can't say what the team is like without him, we did see him play through a pretty serious shoulder injury through most of the first half of the 2020 season. And the Bills defense was much worse during that period and got obviously visibly better as he got healthy again. I personally agree that the team is better when Star plays, but it seems pretty clear to me that the same is very true of Edmunds based on the 2020 season.

 

My guess is they keep Star but if they draft a guy earlyish or bring in an FA replacement, they could easily let him go. I agree with your take there, for what my opinion is worth.

Edited March 3, 2022 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

15 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

Yep exactly. Which is why they haven't given him an extension yet.

 

 

That or they feel there's no particular rush, that they have plenty of time to lock him down. They hadn't given Milano an extension yet either at this point in his career. And Milano wasn't even under contract at the equivalent time. Yet they gave Milano a big contract. Not as big as they'll have to give Edmunds to keep him, but big.

 

They could easily give him an extension this off-season. Or not. But it's clearly a reasonable possibility.

[Thurman#1]

On 3/1/2022 at 12:44 PM, ProcessTruster said:

Oops, off by a year there-was more focused what the long term contract extension offer would be.  That’s the moment of truth and the real issue

 

 

One of several moments of truth. There were a bunch on here predicting the Bills would never pick up his 5th year option. That was also a moment of truth. They did pick it up.

 

You're right of course that the extension will be the next moment of truth.

 

Imo 80 - 90% chance he's a Bill in 2023. But we'll see.

 

To remind you all, though:

 

Reporter:  “Do you consider Tremaine a core building block moving forward?”

 

Brandon Beane two days ago at the combine:  “Yeah, we definitely do. "

 

 

You may not. But they do.

 

Edited March 3, 2022 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

On 2/28/2022 at 9:17 PM, ProcessTruster said:

yeah, agree.  not stumping for either of them; just offer Edmunds a contract commensurate with his 1/11th role on the defense and leave it at that.  If someone offers him Leonard $$ to play the Darius Leonard "superman" dominator run/pass MLB role (which he probably cannot do) then let him take the $$ .   Just like Levi Wallace.   Wallace and Edmunds are just pieces in a scheme, not asked to be dominant (just do your job).   Star, as you say, is a tough one as releasing him will hit the cap hard... McBeanes gotta think on that one... is Star playing only 9 games per season better than taking a $20m (not sure of the #, its pretty big ) cap hit this year.  

 

 

The 1/11th thing is your opinion. Not the Bills. If he was only 1/11th, they wouldn't have made him captain. They wouldn't be paying him what they are paying him this year, which is considerably more than his 1/11th of what the defense costs.

 

Beane and McDermott have made it clear that MLB is a key position in this scheme. They've been very willing to pay two LBs big money, right back to Carolina. It's not a 1/11th position in their defense. That's why they've used a 9th and a 16th pick on it in McDermott's two stops. You simply don't do that on a position which in your defense is only supposed to supply only 1/11th of defensive value.

 

Your argument that it's not an impact position in this defense simply doesn't make sense. You say Kuechly is a unicorn. Well, yeah, but they spent a 1st round pick, a #9 to bring in that unicorn. Then they spent a #16 again on the same position again in Buffalo. You do ... not ... do ... that for an off-ball linebacker if the position is not an impact position in your defense. You just don't.

 

They had a 1/11th guy at MLB in McDermott's 1st year here, in Preston Brown. A classic 1/11th guy. And they immediately spent a 16th on Tremaine.

 

 

On 2/28/2022 at 9:22 PM, SoMAn said:

 

What evidence is there that he's a team leader?

He's been tasked with relaying the defensive signals, which is more a product of his position in the middle of the defense than it is about his actual leadership.  I don't personally know Edmunds, but I've never gotten the sense that he's a leader.

 

 

Um, captain? Three years running?

 

You asked, and that is the answer. He is a leader, whether he's one you react to or not.

 

Edited March 3, 2022 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

On 3/1/2022 at 7:59 AM, MJS said:

So, did they spend all their time debating Edmunds like this thread seems to suggest, or was there something else that they also talked about?

 

 

No, they talked about the whole defense. Spent about 5 - 10 min. on Edmunds, out of about 50 minutes.

 

Bruce talked quite a bit about his thought that the Bills D is built to eliminate big plays, to eliminate defensive risk. He felt that kind of D was not likely to be able to stop high-scoring elite offenses. (My thought was that no defense stops them. Occasionally yes, but consistently no. But never mind.) He argued that the Bills needed a top-flight CB across from Tre to have a chance to do that.

 

Also talked about how addressing DE was something he thought was necessary this year, as it was hedging against the risk of two of our young DBs not significantly developing in this offseason. And that he didn't want them spending a high pick on a DT that doesn't offer benefits in the pass game. Wants help at DT, but not in the first round.

 

He did say he wanted the Bills to get a big DT in who can two-gap effectively and that that would help answer some questions about Edmunds. Puts DT as the team's #1 need. Wants them to acknowledge that they need to have an effective two-gapper DT so you wouldn't have to consistently ask your MLB to cover for light boxes by two-gapping. Didn't think they needed Jordan Davis to do that.

 

Those were a few of his (greatly simplified here) arguments. I thought it was a thoughtful podcast.

 

On Edmunds, the OP greatly cut Bruce's argument. He did indeed say that he thought Edmunds was fine. But he went well beyond that. He said that it seems many live in a world where you're great or you're trash on this issue, and that if he'd been picked later we'd all be comfortable with Edmunds. "When it comes to Tremaine Edmunds, anything short of All-Pro is disaster."

 

Also points out that there's an aspect of his game that's difficult to quantify, that being the plays that the quarterback didn't do because Edmunds is there. This is an argument the anti-Edmunds folks aren't willing to live with.

 

Which is likely why this aspect of this podcast's discussion has gone completely unmentioned, while the mention of Edmunds as "fine," because it fit their narrative, has gone right into the OP.

 

"We often say that the average distance of target against the Buffalo Bills every year being incredibly low is a Micah Hyde stat. We say that. I would like to offer the fact that it's also partially a Tremaine Edmunds stat. The idea that a quarterback does not want to throw it across the middle down the middle of the field. The Buffalo Bills in the intermediate and deep part of the field have the lowest passer rating against of any team in football. People don't want to throw it there, and I think it has probably something to do with a six foot five freak of an athletic middle linebacker who just happens to be patrolling there.

 

"You can not calculate for what a quarterback didn't do that he otherwise would have preferred to do. Linebacker play is hands down the most misunderstood and difficult to quantify part of football. It is incredibly difficult. It's almost like trying to calculate run blocking. The difference is it's a lot easier to see on film. But with a linebacker there's all these weird greys and nuances. You don't quite understand how run fits work. We don't understand where landmarks are in coverage. And because it's so grey we rely on splash plays. And when Tremaine Edmunds doesn't make as many as Darius Leonard, we think he's trash."   - Bruce Nolan

 

Funny how none of that was mentioned by these folks, and yet the "Fine" bit was.

 

 

Edited March 3, 2022 by Thurman#1

[BuffaloRebound]

The reason he’s making $12.7m this year is directly related to being a 1st round draft pick and making a Pro Bowl.  And no agent is gonna accept anything less than that per year on a long term deal.  So when people talk about him being a disappointment due to his draft status, it’s actually very relevant.  He will have made $26m in his first 5 years in the league.  If he was drafted in the 2nd round and didn’t make a pro bowl, we’re probably looking at $4m total in his first 4 years and a 2nd contract in the $6-8m per year range based on production.  

[BillsFan130]

15 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

That or they feel there's no particular rush, that they have plenty of time to lock him down. They hadn't given Milano an extension yet either at this point in his career. And Milano wasn't even under contract at the equivalent time. Yet they gave Milano a big contract. Not as big as they'll have to give Edmunds to keep him, but big.

 

They could easily give him an extension this off-season. Or not. But it's clearly a reasonable possibility.

It's definitely possible.

 

My point is I think they want to see more from him before they give him a big extension.

 

Historically under Beane though, he gives the "core" players contracts after year 3.

 

Josh, Tre, Dawkins, Taron (a few games in year 4)

 

Milano was an exception for sure.

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

It's definitely possible.

 

My point is I think they want to see more from him before they give him a big extension.

 

Historically under Beane though, he gives the "core" players contracts after year 3.

 

Josh, Tre, Dawkins, Taron (a few games in year 4)

 

Milano was an exception for sure.

 

 

I mean, you may be right.

 

But how would you feel about thinking that they want to see more if they extend him this off-season? That would prove you wrong, wouldn't it? And it could happen. Or not. But it's possible.

 

And it's not unclear whether he considers Tremaine a core player. He absolutely does. Again, he said so flat-out about three days ago:

 

Reporter:  “Do you consider Tremaine a core building block moving forward?”

 

Brandon Beane two days ago at the combine:  “Yeah, we definitely do. "

 

 

And while he gave Josh, Tre, Dawkins and Taron extensions after three years, he did not with Milano, and he kind of did with Tremaine. He signed him for his 5th year option at around $12M - guaranteed - for the year. That's an extension, though only for one year.

 

[Thurman#1]

21 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

The reason he’s making $12.7m this year is directly related to being a 1st round draft pick and making a Pro Bowl.  And no agent is gonna accept anything less than that per year on a long term deal.  So when people talk about him being a disappointment due to his draft status, it’s actually very relevant.  He will have made $26m in his first 5 years in the league.  If he was drafted in the 2nd round and didn’t make a pro bowl, we’re probably looking at $4m total in his first 4 years and a 2nd contract in the $6-8m per year range based on production.  

 

 

No, that's not the reason he's making $12.7M per year.

 

The reason he's making $12.7M this year is because knowing the price Beane picked up the option. Beane certainly did NOT have to do that. But he did.

 

And saying "a 2nd contract in the $6 - 8M per year range based on production is flat-out ridiculous. Not to mention wrong. Second contracts are based on production. The Bills signed him for $12.7M based on his production. Barring injury or major regression or improvement, his second contract, here or elsewhere, is likely to be somewhere between $13M and $19M, somewhere in there.

 

Second contracts have nothing to do with draft spot.

 

"$6 - $8M based on production"?

 

Nonsense.

[SoMAn]

On 3/3/2022 at 2:41 AM, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

The 1/11th thing is your opinion. Not the Bills. If he was only 1/11th, they wouldn't have made him captain. They wouldn't be paying him what they are paying him this year, which is considerably more than his 1/11th of what the defense costs.

 

Beane and McDermott have made it clear that MLB is a key position in this scheme. They've been very willing to pay two LBs big money, right back to Carolina. It's not a 1/11th position in their defense. That's why they've used a 9th and a 16th pick on it in McDermott's two stops. You simply don't do that on a position which in your defense is only supposed to supply only 1/11th of defensive value.

 

Your argument that it's not an impact position in this defense simply doesn't make sense. You say Kuechly is a unicorn. Well, yeah, but they spent a 1st round pick, a #9 to bring in that unicorn. Then they spent a #16 again on the same position again in Buffalo. You do ... not ... do ... that for an off-ball linebacker if the position is not an impact position in your defense. You just don't.

 

They had a 1/11th guy at MLB in McDermott's 1st year here, in Preston Brown. A classic 1/11th guy. And they immediately spent a 16th on Tremaine.

 

 

 

Um, captain? Three years running?

 

You asked, and that is the answer. He is a leader, whether he's one you react to or not.

 

I already gave the thumbs up to another responder who pointed out his role as captain. That's all I asked for was evidence. That may be it.  On the other hand, he may have been thrust into that role by the hierarchy.

One thing for sure is that he's a polarizing figure for fans of the team.  These debates are proof.

I've watched a lot of NFL football and seen a lot of defenders through past decades, and compared to ones I've viewed in that period, watching Edmund's play, I see a guy who appears tentative and is easily pushed around.  Just my opinion.

[BuffaloRebound]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

No, that's not the reason he's making $12.7M per year.

 

The reason he's making $12.7M this year is because knowing the price Beane picked up the option. Beane certainly did NOT have to do that. But he did.

 

And saying "a 2nd contract in the $6 - 8M per year range based on production is flat-out ridiculous. Not to mention wrong. Second contracts are based on production. The Bills signed him for $12.7M based on his production. Barring injury or major regression or improvement, his second contract, here or elsewhere, is likely to be somewhere between $13M and $19M, somewhere in there.

 

Second contracts have nothing to do with draft spot.

 

"$6 - $8M based on production"?

 

Nonsense.

Making a Pro Bowl was the difference between his 5th year option being the average of the top 3 through 25 LB’s versus the average of the top 10.   That’s why he’s making $12.7m and not $9.7m.  Beane picked it up a year ago still betting on Edmunds potential.  Not easy admitting a guy you traded up to the 16th pick for is an average starting LB.  Maybe year 5 is the year he realizes his potential but kicking that can down the road is getting progressively more expensive. 

[BillsFan130]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I mean, you may be right.

 

But how would you feel about thinking that they want to see more if they extend him this off-season? That would prove you wrong, wouldn't it? And it could happen. Or not. But it's possible.

 

And it's not unclear whether he considers Tremaine a core player. He absolutely does. Again, he said so flat-out about three days ago:

 

Reporter:  “Do you consider Tremaine a core building block moving forward?”

 

Brandon Beane two days ago at the combine:  “Yeah, we definitely do. "

 

 

And while he gave Josh, Tre, Dawkins and Taron extensions after three years, he did not with Milano, and he kind of did with Tremaine. He signed him for his 5th year option at around $12M - guaranteed - for the year. That's an extension, though only for one year.

 

Ya fair points.

 

Here is the tough part though.

 

If Edmunds has another year where he doesn't grow, do you give him the extension and pay him 12-15 per year?

 

I certainly don't