Ukraine. The End Game

[sherpa]

I think the next month is going to be painful, but.....

I think Russia is done, at least the Putin regime, and...

 

I think China is grossly overrated by US folks.

 

[Motorin']

13 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

....In 2014, Russia launched the System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS), a Russian alternative to SWIFT. In 2015, China launched the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), a Chinese alternative to SWIFT. CIPS processed around $12.68 trillion in 2021, a 75% increase from 2020. CIPS has about 1,280 financial institutions in 103 countries and regions connected to their system.

 

Combine the Russian System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS) with the Chinese Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and you see the foundation of a new Russian-Chinese cross-border payment system bypassing SWIFT and speeding up global de-dollarization.

 

.....Thanks to the incompetence of U.S. and E.U. policymakers, western nations have foolishly dismantled their own energy independence in exchange for Russian oil and gas. As a consequence, Russia and China have invaded Ukraine with the ultimate goal of sparking increased inflation in the west, increasing the cost of food and energy, and speeding up the global process of de-dollarization.

 

This comes after the Federal Reserve doubled its balance sheet over the last two years, inflation hit 40-year highs, and U.S. government debt exceeded $30 trillion for the first time. Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping feel emboldened by a Biden administration that shut down U.S. energy independence, abandoned Afghanistan in chaos, and created the highest inflation in 40-years.

 

They are not threatened by a Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff who still sits in his position after he admitted in front of Congress that he would give his Chinese counterpart a heads up if the United States ever launched an attack. They may even have more control over the situation than anyone is aware of considering the Bank of China and other Chinese state-controlled banks gave $1.5 billion to an investment fund owned by the son of Joe Biden.

 

https://kanekoa.substack.com/p/inflation-de-dollarization-and-russias

 

 

I'm convinced that the old 60-70 something oligarchs that orchestrated the "recovery" plan following the 2008-09 financial crash.....implemented plans to keep them wealthy in the last years or decade of their lives kicking the can down the road.  

 

I feel like time is almost up.

 

How much money does Swift process per year?

[T&C]

So the ***** russians are now shelling a nuclear power plant... someone needs to get into putins head, and I'm not talking words. 

 

This could be the most important part of this insurgence, kind of scares me tbh.

[snafu]

1 hour ago, Motorin' said:

 

How much money does Swift process per year?

Page 9. In 2004 it was $5Trillion/day.

Not a typo.

 

https://www.fincen.gov/sites/default/files/shared/Appendix_D.pdf

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

3 hours ago, T&C said:

So the ***** russians are now shelling a nuclear power plant... someone needs to get into putins head, and I'm not talking words. 

 

This could be the most important part of this insurgence, kind of scares me tbh.

Vlad needs to be ended. I bet it’s impossible to get close enough 

[L Ron Burgundy]

6 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Vlad needs to be ended. I bet it’s impossible to get close enough 

Would probably take someone in his inner circle. 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

5 hours ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

Would probably take someone in his inner circle. 

Agreed and unlikely….  Also would need  someone doing it because it’s the right thing to do, not because they want his spot.

 

[aristocrat]

Need to covertly shift the war slightly in the Ukraine's favor.  Just enough to give the Russian people some real leverage.  Be nice if someone could hire one of the contractor companies to go in there for a week and hammer the Russian convoy and push back the Russians enough. 

[Tenhigh]

1 minute ago, aristocrat said:

Need to covertly shift the war slightly in the Ukraine's favor.  Just enough to give the Russian people some real leverage.  Be nice if someone could hire one of the contractor companies to go in there for a week and hammer the Russian convoy and push back the Russians enough. 

You talking about some kind of "Blackwater Gofundme page"?

[aristocrat]

25 minutes ago, Tenhigh said:

You talking about some kind of "Blackwater Gofundme page"?

 

Pretty much. Have Bezos and gates throw 300 mil at the cause and we send in 1000 ex bored special forces guys for a week. It's probably against NATO rules and wildly unrealistic but in my naive brain it would work lol 

[T&C]

Nice move:

 

https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/news/2022/03/05/charter-waiving-charges-for-calls-to-ukraine-during-march

[SCBills]

On 3/3/2022 at 6:13 PM, sherpa said:

I think the next month is going to be painful, but.....

I think Russia is done, at least the Putin regime, and...

 

I think China is grossly overrated by US folks.

 

You sound like Blockbuster execs when discussing Netflix

[John Adams]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

You sound like Blockbuster execs when discussing Netflix

Agreed. We’re on day 7. Russia controls several power gen facilities and key ports. And despite the civilian deaths, it is still holding back with the worst it could do. Not even talking about nukes. 
 

And China ain’t Russia. 

[sherpa]

10 hours ago, SCBills said:

You sound like Blockbuster execs when discussing Netflix

 

Of course they're going to defeat Ukraine, but it's going to be the most pyrrhic victory in memory.

 

Russia becomes economically and politically isolated and loathed by every nation on earth except its satellites.

As well, the Russian military performance has been abysmal. Embarrassing actually.

 

Alliances in opposition to them are tuned up and strengthened.

Passive states like Germany, are changing to a far more hostile view of them, and countries like Finland and Sweden have become NATO friendly.

Even historically neutral Switzerland is participation in sanctions, and it's hard to believe the "occupation" phase is going to go well for them.

 

[All_Pro_Bills]

20 minutes ago, sherpa said:

 

Of course they're going to defeat Ukraine, but it's going to be the most pyrrhic victory in memory.

 

Russia becomes economically and politically isolated and loathed by every nation on earth except its satellites.

As well, the Russian military performance has been abysmal. Embarrassing actually.

 

Alliances in opposition to them are tuned up and strengthened.

Passive states like Germany, are changing to a far more hostile view of them, and countries like Finland and Sweden have become NATO friendly.

Even historically neutral Switzerland is participation in sanctions, and it's hard to believe the "occupation" phase is going to go well for them.

 

Knowing defeat is certain why not surrender and spare your citizens from further suffering while insisting on terms such as U.N. peacekeepers and monitors?  In the face of death and violence that would seem to be a sensible option to consider.  

[harryS]

41 minutes ago, sherpa said:

 

Of course they're going to defeat Ukraine, but it's going to be the most pyrrhic victory in memory.

 

Russia becomes economically and politically isolated and loathed by every nation on earth except its satellites.

As well, the Russian military performance has been abysmal. Embarrassing actually.

 

Alliances in opposition to them are tuned up and strengthened.

Passive states like Germany, are changing to a far more hostile view of them, and countries like Finland and Sweden have become NATO friendly.

Even historically neutral Switzerland is participation in sanctions, and it's hard to believe the "occupation" phase is going to go well for them.

 

 

haha, you should tell reddit and twitter that.

 

as for sanctions and relationships between countries, we'll have to see long-term what the impact is.  i hope you realize there is potentially major blowback on the european and u.s. economies, too, and the possible death of the petrodollar.  I think there's a chance the U.S. and Europe will hurt worse, and just as importantly, I think there's a chance the U.S. and Europe populaces are less tough in the face of economic wars than the Russian people, who are used to being poor.

 

you know, we're a week, a week and half into a war, and it's funny how so many internet experts can predict the future.

[PetermansRedemption]

49 minutes ago, sherpa said:

 

Of course they're going to defeat Ukraine, but it's going to be the most pyrrhic victory in memory.

 

Russia becomes economically and politically isolated and loathed by every nation on earth except its satellites.

As well, the Russian military performance has been abysmal. Embarrassing actually.

 

Alliances in opposition to them are tuned up and strengthened.

Passive states like Germany, are changing to a far more hostile view of them, and countries like Finland and Sweden have become NATO friendly.

Even historically neutral Switzerland is participation in sanctions, and it's hard to believe the "occupation" phase is going to go well for them.

 

I agree that Putin completely underestimated his ability to unite the west. I never thought I’d see the day where republicans and democrats and all of the western world was united on a cause. However, when it comes to the bolded, there’s really no way to know that yet. We don’t have accurate casualty figures, just propaganda from one side or the other. It took the US 3 weeks to capture Baghdad and that wasn’t an embarrassing military performance. Forces, no matter how superior, take time to move and capture land against inferior forces. If Ukraine is still holding on in a months time, it would absolutely be an embarrassing failure for the Russian military. 

[Coffeesforclosers]

 

List of Russia's Vehicle losses with photo/video evidence for each vehicle

 

As of today, Russia has lost 656 tanks, trucks, APCs/IFVs, self propelled artillery pieces, and anti-aircraft vehicles.  That's destroyed, damaged, abandoned and captured.

 

This site has Ukrainian losses as well.  If he's right, Ukraine could replace it's battlefield losses with captured Russian gear AND equip new units with the leftovers.

 

Now for the grain of salt.  The countryside isn't exactly swarming with Ukrainian civilians looking for pictures of their own destroyed stuff.

 

But if we had lost 656 vehicles and admitted to 498 KIA and 1500+ wounded in 1 week of Iraq, well no one would believe our casualty figure, and conclude we were getting our asses kicked so far.

 

There's really no basis for comparing Russia and Ukraine with the US and Iraq.  Our invasion of Iraq is a model of military planning compared to what Russia is trying right now.  Which is sad in itself.

[Tiberius]

5 minutes ago, Coffeesforclosers said:

 

List of Russia's Vehicle losses with photo/video evidence for each vehicle

 

As of today, Russia has lost 656 tanks, trucks, APCs/IFVs, self propelled artillery pieces, and anti-aircraft vehicles.  That's destroyed, damaged, abandoned and captured.

 

This site has Ukrainian losses as well.  If he's right, Ukraine could replace it's battlefield losses with captured Russian gear AND equip new units with the leftovers.

 

Now for the grain of salt.  The countryside isn't exactly swarming with Ukrainian civilians looking for pictures of their own destroyed stuff.

 

But if we had lost 656 vehicles and admitted to 498 KIA and 1500+ wounded in 1 week of Iraq, well no one would believe our casualty figure, and conclude we were getting our asses kicked so far.

 

There's really no basis for comparing Russia and Ukraine with the US and Iraq.  Our invasion of Iraq is a model of military planning compared to what Russia is trying right now.  Which is sad in itself.

Not surprised so many have been abandoned, fuel is hard to get shipped during war. The French had more tanks than the Germans in 1941 but just couldn’t drive them. They destroyed many themselves because their logistics sucked 

[TSOL]

Historically speaking, Russia's toughness is matched only by their stupidity.  Those are some real tough, real dumb people over there