Ukraine. The End Game

[Tiberius]

2 hours ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

I wouldn't dismiss your approach but my conclusion is that initiative of accelerating the renewable switch is demonstrably the very thing that put Germany in the precarious position they now face.  Having to bow to pressure from Russia because they are dependent as their "green" initiatives faced with a windless and cloudy Winter has left them helpless.  And more expensive to boot!  So I'd need a good post mortem analysis of Germany's program identifying why they failed and how to avoid it.  My other concern is simply what was referred to in my past experience in the logistics world as "material availability".   I want the cheapest, quickest, and most effective approach to neutralizing the threat, and signaling to Putin that I mean business here and he's got to pay attention.

 

So objectively show me the benefits, risks & rewards of accelerating alternative energy sources against a conventional approach that I'm expect has an almost 100% chance of success.   

I'm not sure what the answer is but you're asking the right questions.  Maybe Putin wants to use up all the old gear first since its paid for and would otherwise just be scraped (or sold off to 3rd world dictators).   Making something of what accountant's call "sunk costs".  Maybe he doesn't want to provide Western military analysts with any "game film" on his newest weapons.  Provide them with insights into the performance and capabilities of his latest weapons and aircraft in combat situations.  Like analysts get when aircraft encroach on a country's territory.  They don't have an attack in mind as much as wanting intel on response times and defense tactics.  

 

I also expect Putin's strategy is to avoid civilian casualties as much as is possible.  The goal isn't to eliminate the population.  The goal is to neutralize the Ukrainian military and either replace or re-purpose the current government with one that has a more "independent" posture with the West.   

Green energy would get way cheaper the more you make of it. And oil isn’t expensive? It’s fueling Putin’s war machine. So many of the Petro-states are criminal regimes. That’s a big cost to the world 

 

End Game: Green energy! 

[billsfan_34]

3 hours ago, sherpa said:

 

 

What is most interesting is that he has not used his air advantage, which is huge and would be a game changer.

Perhaps he was overconfident is his four prong ground forces, a strategy which hasn't worked at all.

Using his air force to its significant capability would tip the scales immediately, but it would be very messy, and whatever blowback he thought he would get from his invasion would pale if he turned the Russian Air Force loose.

His helo’s and jets have been getting shot out of the sky by stingers. Simply put, it appears US technology > Russian technology. Putin has to think long and hard about how many assets he wants to potentially give up.

 

Additionally, the pilots seem ill-trained. A few reports have 1 Ukrainian fighter pilot knocking down 6 Russian fighters.

 

In short, Russia has a lot of nukes. After that, good missile capabilities and a fairly well equipped navy. Problem is, their economy is too weak for the continued funding, maintenance, and training to keep the war machine “well oiled”.

[SCBills]

5 minutes ago, billsfan_34 said:

His helo’s and jets have been getting shot out of the sky by stingers. Simply put, it appears US technology > Russian technology. Putin has to think long and hard about how many assets he wants to potentially give up.

 

Additionally, the pilots seem ill-trained. A few reports have 1 Ukrainian fighter pilot knocking down 6 Russian fighters.

 

In short, Russia has a lot of nukes. After that, good missile capabilities and a fairly well equipped navy. Problem is, their economy is too weak for the continued funding, maintenance, and training to keep the war machine “well oiled”.

All the soldiers being captured, if we are to believe the videos, appear to be 18-19 year old conscripts.  
 

The equipment being destroyed is the oldest equipment Russia has.  
 

Not sure what Putin was expecting, but he’s approached this like he was just going to waltz into Kyiv. 

[billsfan_34]

2 minutes ago, SCBills said:

All the soldiers being captured, if we are to believe the videos, appear to be 18-19 year old conscripts.  
 

The equipment being destroyed is the oldest equipment Russia has.  
 

Not sure what Putin was expecting, but he’s approached this like he was just going to waltz into Kyiv. 

I am not sure either, but I sense there was never a “full buy in” from the masses which may have filtered down to the troops.

 

Also, I think the average Russian citizen/service member, are having a difficult time invaiding a country closely aligned to their culture. 
 

Not a great recipe when you have now kicked a bunch of bee hives.

[Motorin']

Just now, billsfan_34 said:

I am not sure either, but I sense there was never a “full buy in” from the masses which may have filtered down to the troops.

 

Also, I think the average Russian citizen/service member, are having a difficult time invaiding a country closely aligned to their culture. 
 

Not a great recipe when you have now kicked a bunch of bee hives.

 

Not only was there not a full buy in, but the White House preempted Putin's ability to stage his false flag excuse by telling the world week's in advanced that Russia had decided to invade. Not only was Putin unable to fabricate a pretext, but he had to deny that he was going to invade to his people and is still trying to deny that he invaded. 

 

The soldiers and the people of Russia are very confused and upset. 

[Precision]

33 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Also the longer this plays out the more time it gives the Russian people to react as well.

Good point, I certainly wouldn't want to share a meal with Putin!

[OrangeBills]

5 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

Not only was there not a full buy in, but the White House preempted Putin's ability to stage his false flag excuse by telling the world week's in advanced that Russia had decided to invade. Not only was Putin unable to fabricate a pretext, but he had to deny that he was going to invade to his people and is still trying to deny that he invaded. 

 

The soldiers and the people of Russia are very confused and upset. 

 

Yes, the Biden Admin did a good job pre-invasion given the Intelligence they had...took a lot of Putin credibility points away in the process.

 

The problem, and I don't blame our side here, is that puts him in a position of having to win at all costs which will require Int'l defense of Ukraine at some point.

 

 

[letsgoteam]

18 minutes ago, OrangeBills said:

 

Yes, the Biden Admin did a good job pre-invasion given the Intelligence they had...took a lot of Putin credibility points away in the process.

 

The problem, and I don't blame our side here, is that puts him in a position of having to win at all costs which will require Int'l defense of Ukraine at some point.

 

 

I agree in a day and age of it being hard to know what is truth and what is smoke, they seem'd to call it pretty accurately.

 

Not a fan of JB but credit where credit is due.

[SCBills]

10 minutes ago, letsgoteam said:

I agree in a day and age of it being hard to know what is truth and what is smoke, they seem'd to call it pretty accurately.

 

Not a fan of JB but credit where credit is due.

I have zero issue with how Biden has handled the current conflict.   He’s actually impressed me over the past week. 
 

I have many issues with how his leadership over the past year allowed this to happen. 
 

He’s doing a good job playing the cards he’s been dealt.   The issue is, he has bad cards and he dealt them to himself.  

[billsfan_34]

39 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

Not only was there not a full buy in, but the White House preempted Putin's ability to stage his false flag excuse by telling the world week's in advanced that Russia had decided to invade. Not only was Putin unable to fabricate a pretext, but he had to deny that he was going to invade to his people and is still trying to deny that he invaded. 

 

The soldiers and the people of Russia are very confused and upset. 

Sidebar: Russian units have mobile crematorium’s. Makes you wonder why? But I will leave that right here 🤔

[sherpa]

1 hour ago, billsfan_34 said:

His helo’s and jets have been getting shot out of the sky by stingers. Simply put, it appears US technology > Russian technology. Putin has to think long and hard about how many assets he wants to potentially give up.

 

Additionally, the pilots seem ill-trained. A few reports have 1 Ukrainian fighter pilot knocking down 6 Russian fighters.

 

In short, Russia has a lot of nukes. After that, good missile capabilities and a fairly well equipped navy. Problem is, their economy is too weak for the continued funding, maintenance, and training to keep the war machine “well oiled”.

 

A few points.

I get by your pic in front of a Harrier that you may know something about military stuff.

 

After sea duty, I got into the Pacific Fleet Adversary Squadron, the is the Navy equivalent of the US Air Force aggressors.

You may know what that involved, but for those that don't, we studied Soviet tactics and deployed them against US and other countries air forces.

 

A few points from a guy who has a bit of experience in this.

 

There is no real proof that his "helos and fighters have been getting shot out of the sky by Stingers."

I am very skeptical of that.

 

The new Stingers are far more capable, but they have very limited altitude capability, roughly 16,000'.

Very lethal for slow movers and helos, but not much of a serious threat for the front line Russian fighters.

We never took shoulder stuff as much of a threat, and if the Russians front line fighters are getting shot down by them, they are idiots, which they weren't in their recent action in Syria.

I don't believe it.

 

The  "ghost of Kyiv, " is pure fiction. the original video was a computer graphic entry.

Nice propaganda, but silly.

 

[Tiberius]

23 hours ago, sherpa said:

I never start threads, but i think the other one is getting off target, and descending into a Trump/Biden thing, which I am not interested in.

 

What is a reasonable conclusion regarding this Russian adventure into the Ukraine?

 

My view is that Putin has committed political suicide; probably not on the domestic level, but internationally, he is done.

 

I don't think that there is any chance he tries to expand beyond this disaster.

I think he has galvanized the international community on the need to separate from Russian trade re the energy market.

I believe he has given NATO a booster shot, to include tempting some other nations to join.

I don't think they will, but I think they will lean far more in that direction than a month ago.

 

Specifically, I don't think the Ukrainians will ever agree to be subservient to a Putin puppet government, no matter the outcome of this.

I think the rest of the world will support them in opposition, and make the "occupation" impossible, not that any Russian occupation has ever worked.

 

I think this is the end of the Russian dream to ever restore a Soviet style, centralized nation.

 

I think this will impact China negatively as well, though not immediately apparent, but eventually.

 

Further, though I think the next few days/weeks will be a rough watch, I think Putin has accelerated us to a better time.

 

On the periphery, I really hope that the world's people get some realistic energy supply view.

 

One thing is for sure, organizations like this will sure help a lot of people. That will be part of the end game, helping the people whose lives have been disrupted by this disaster 

 

 

Great job UNICEF!! 

https://www.unicefusa.org/?form=HealthEmergency&utm_content=corona3responsive_none&ms=cpc_dig_2020_Emergencies_20200402_google_corona3responsive_delve_none&initialms=cpc_dig_2020_Emergencies_20200402_google_corona3responsive_delve_none&gclid=Cj0KCQiA3-yQBhD3ARIsAHuHT676UAbPTzRMQZPgyAb3vnqjrDy1Z6tuEpsKsKji_i73EWyqrtsp2XsaAt0xEALw_wcB

[LDD]

@ Sherpa...

 

Do you believe that Putin has put inferior pilots to the task in Ukraine?   The "elite" and or "battle hardened" pilots were  possibly not involved?  

[sherpa]

5 minutes ago, LDD said:

@ Sherpa...

 

Do you believe that Putin has put inferior pilots to the task in Ukraine?   The "elite" and or "battle hardened" pilots were  possibly not involved?  

 

No I don't, and I'll respectfully answer.

 

Whoever is running this operation for the Russians, and I assume based on Russian current history, is that it is being run from the Kremlin.

The Russian Air Force has near peer capability with the US.

Not as good, but not more than one generation behind.

They are well equipped and well trained.

They lack US capability in coordinating force and coordinating all assets.

They also lack the independence that US pilots have, being far more dependent on ground control.

 

Anyway, for whatever reason, they are not using their capability, which would overwhelm the Ukraine.

 

If the US was running this thing, the first day would be an absolute onslaught of air power that would have wiped out the air defense system of the enemy, resulting in not air superiority, but air supremacy, meaning they could conduct ground operations with no air threat.

US pilots have a bond with our ground guys, which is, essentially, we can't do what you do from here, but we will ensure that you can do it without being bothered, and we will be over you the whole time.

 

The Russians had this capability, but I think they didn't want the video of that operation, thinking they could get this done with much less mess.

Clearly, that hasn't worked.

 

As horrible as this human tragedy is, the incompetence is a gift for the west.

 

 

[billsfan_34]

53 minutes ago, sherpa said:

 

A few points.

I get by your pic in front of a Harrier that you may know something about military stuff.

 

After sea duty, I got into the Pacific Fleet Adversary Squadron, the is the Navy equivalent of the US Air Force aggressors.

You may know what that involved, but for those that don't, we studied Soviet tactics and deployed them against US and other countries air forces.

 

A few points from a guy who has a bit of experience in this.

 

There is no real proof that his "helos and fighters have been getting shot out of the sky by Stingers."

I am very skeptical of that.

 

The new Stingers are far more capable, but they have very limited altitude capability, roughly 16,000'.

Very lethal for slow movers and helos, but not much of a serious threat for the front line Russian fighters.

We never took shoulder stuff as much of a threat, and if the Russians front line fighters are getting shot down by them, they are idiots, which they weren't in their recent action in Syria.

I don't believe it.

 

The  "ghost of Kyiv, " is pure fiction. the original video was a computer graphic entry.

Nice propaganda, but silly.

 

Yes, 21 years in the Corps- Avionics on the harrier. Thanks for your service.

 

The Ghost could be bs, but there have been many reports of stinger effectiveness.

 

A typical SAM would be needed for higher elevation attack jets and bombers. A larger portion of Russian strikes have been at a low ceiling, and in some instances on a dive for placement.

 

Russians have some other disadvantages as well. They dont use GPS guided munitions and they cannot all be on GPS time together and therefore cannot use havequick technology (frequency hopping in time). 
 

All that said, we too did air excercises that had Russian tactics involved. The intelligence and information used suggested that our avionics/weapons systems and pilot skill coupled with our arsenal of aircraft was far superior.

 

Thanks again for your service 😊

1 minute ago, sherpa said:

 

No I don't, and I'll respectfully answer.

 

Whoever is running this operation for the Russians, and I assume based on Russian current history, is that it is being run from the Kremlin.

The Russian Air Force has near peer capability with the US.

Not as good, but not more than one generation behind.

They are well equipped and well trained.

They lack US capability in coordinating force and coordinating all assets.

They also lack the independence that US pilots have, being far more dependent on ground control.

 

Anyway, for whatever reason, they are not using their capability, which would overwhelm the Ukraine.

 

If the US was running this thing, the first day would be an absolute onslaught of air power that would have wiped out the air defense system of the enemy, resulting in not air superiority, but air supremacy, meaning they could conduct ground operations with no air threat.

US pilots have a bond with our ground guys, which is, essentially, we can't do what you do from here, but we will ensure that you can do it without being bothered, and we will be over you the whole time.

 

The Russians had this capability, but I think they didn't want the video of that operation, thinking they could get this done with much less mess.

Clearly, that hasn't worked.

 

As horrible as this human tragedy is, the incompetence is a gift for the west.

 

 

US pilots/air power/systems are superior to the Russians. That is not to say they are “rag tag” or Tunisians flying old fighters but I lived this world for 21 years. We still have air superiority in the world. 

[sherpa]

11 minutes ago, billsfan_34 said:

 

US pilots/air power/systems are superior to the Russians. That is not to say they are “rag tag” or Tunisians flying old fighters but I lived this world for 21 years. We still have air superiority in the world. 

 

Thanks for the response.

I taught and fought the Soviet Air Force to our guys for years, and you are correct.

 

The issue isn't us vs. them

The issue is why are they not using their obvious advantage over the Ukrainians?

[billsfan_34]

29 minutes ago, sherpa said:

 

Thanks for the response.

I taught and fought the Soviet Air Force to our guys for years, and you are correct.

 

The issue isn't us vs. them

The issue is why are they not using their obvious advantage over the Ukrainians?

You are welcome. Well Putin is a misinformation deceptive guy. Your guess is as good as mine. One thing is certain: Every political move or military move is accompanied with a disinformation element. That is the USSR playbook as you know. Hindsight will be intersting on this one.

[sherpa]

5 minutes ago, billsfan_34 said:

You are welcome. Well Putin is a misinformation deceptive guy. Your guess is as good as mine. One thing is certain: Every political move or military move is accompanied with a disinformation element. That is the USSR playbook as you know. Hindsight will be intersting on this one.

 

Sure.

Thinking back, and as an adversary, having fought all US forces and a number of other countries, the only time I ever fought Harriers was off Kadena, and only once.

Didn't see a lot of your guys.

[billsfan_34]

21 minutes ago, sherpa said:

 

Sure.

Thinking back, and as an adversary, having fought all US forces and a number of other countries, the only time I ever fought Harriers was off Kadena, and only once.

Didn't see a lot of your guys.

Were a small bunch. We only had 7 deployable squadrons on 2 bases - Yuma and Cherry Point NC. If you met up in Kadena, then a MEU must have been there. I did a year on the rock. What jet did you fly?

[sherpa]

14 minutes ago, billsfan_34 said:

Were a small bunch. We only had 7 deployable squadrons on 2 bases - Yuma and Cherry Point NC. If you met up in Kadena, then a MEU must have been there. I did a year on the rock. What jet did you fly?

 

The A7E at sea, then with the adversaries, the A4 Superfox,, F5 and the F-18.

Never saw them at the Yuma range, which we were at all the time.

As you state, such a small community.

I think I remember every engagement with a Harrier, 'cause it's such a weird adversary.

My brain was better then, but I think I could still draw them up.