Ukraine. The End Game

[sherpa]

I never start threads, but i think the other one is getting off target, and descending into a Trump/Biden thing, which I am not interested in.

 

What is a reasonable conclusion regarding this Russian adventure into the Ukraine?

 

My view is that Putin has committed political suicide; probably not on the domestic level, but internationally, he is done.

 

I don't think that there is any chance he tries to expand beyond this disaster.

I think he has galvanized the international community on the need to separate from Russian trade re the energy market.

I believe he has given NATO a booster shot, to include tempting some other nations to join.

I don't think they will, but I think they will lean far more in that direction than a month ago.

 

Specifically, I don't think the Ukrainians will ever agree to be subservient to a Putin puppet government, no matter the outcome of this.

I think the rest of the world will support them in opposition, and make the "occupation" impossible, not that any Russian occupation has ever worked.

 

I think this is the end of the Russian dream to ever restore a Soviet style, centralized nation.

 

I think this will impact China negatively as well, though not immediately apparent, but eventually.

 

Further, though I think the next few days/weeks will be a rough watch, I think Putin has accelerated us to a better time.

 

On the periphery, I really hope that the world's people get some realistic energy supply view.

 

[SCBills]

I don’t believe much of anything coming out of Ukraine, but the international response is certainly worth noting.  
 

Due to that, I believe Putin will eventually get his puppet government in Ukraine.  Similar to Belarus.  However, the occupation will be exhaustive and - along with international sanctions - he “should” focus on simply keeping his expansion into Ukraine.  
 

I say “should” because he hasn’t been predictable at all and taking the Baltic states (absent triggering NATO) would be much, much easier than taking Ukraine.  
 

Does he dare challenge NATO?   
 

Re: China.. this goes two ways.  I’m sure they would have liked Putin to take Ukraine quickly and easily.  (Not sure I believe the timeline we’re being given .. note how long it took us to take Baghdad).  That being said, the longer this goes on, the messier it gets, the more resistance we see.  
 

However, they also see how much of a struggle there is to sanction Russia… now try sanctioning China…. Good luck.  
 

Edited February 26, 2022 by SCBills

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

15 minutes ago, sherpa said:

I never start threads, but i think the other one is getting off target, and descending into a Trump/Biden thing, which I am not interested in.

 

What is a reasonable conclusion regarding this Russian adventure into the Ukraine?

 

My view is that Putin has committed political suicide; probably not on the domestic level, but internationally, he is done.

 

I don't think that there is any chance he tries to expand beyond this disaster.

I think he has galvanized the international community on the need to separate from Russian trade re the energy market.

I believe he has given NATO a booster shot, to include tempting some other nations to join.

I don't think they will, but I think they will lean far more in that direction than a month ago.

 

Specifically, I don't think the Ukrainians will ever agree to be subservient to a Putin puppet government, no matter the outcome of this.

I think the rest of the world will support them in opposition, and make the "occupation" impossible, not that any Russian occupation has ever worked.

 

I think this is the end of the Russian dream to ever restore a Soviet style, centralized nation.

 

I think this will impact China negatively as well, though not immediately apparent, but eventually.

 

Further, though I think the next few days/weeks will be a rough watch, I think Putin has accelerated us to a better time.

 

On the periphery, I really hope that the world's people get some realistic energy supply view.

 

Perhaps- but a cornered vicious animal is most dangerous and irrational 

[sherpa]

2 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Perhaps- but a cornered vicious animal is most dangerous and irrational 

 

Absolutely, and that is why the domestic response is so important.

Fortunately, the threat to Russia and the Putin regime is not military. Nobody is threatening the Russian citizen.

That might trigger a response we don't want to consider.

 

If his regime is simply eroded  internally, which by next week or next month has a much greater probability, that option is removed.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

3 hours ago, sherpa said:

 

Absolutely, and that is why the domestic response is so important.

Fortunately, the threat to Russia and the Putin regime is not military. Nobody is threatening the Russian citizen.

That might trigger a response we don't want to consider.

 

If his regime is simply eroded  internally, which by next week or next month has a much greater probability, that option is removed.

True.  The concern the last sentence raises is how blood my and aggressive is he willing to ratchet things up to try and beat the clock.

[All_Pro_Bills]

While we can debate how the situation came to this point it's looking clearer that Putin's Ukraine objective is to roll back the clock to 2014 when a Russia friendly government resided in Kiev.  Early on there was talk of Putin/Zelensky sit downs to discuss Ukraine neutrality implying the Russian invasion could stop and Zelensky's administration could remain in power but that seems to have fallen apart.  So now on to Plan B to be install a pro-Russian government.  One that will not join NATO and will expel Western "influences". 

 

I don't think these sanctions will have much of an impact.  And expelling Russia from SWIFT?  That's been talked about for years in the currency and trade sector.  Russia has systemically eliminated most of its dollar reserves or direct dollar exposure.  If blocked from SWIFT there are alternatives.  The key theme is all of the US alliances actions and reactions have been anticipated.  Russian strategists will conclude the West has no resolve for conflict.  And still doesn't get it.  

 

Outside of the hostilities my key takeaway is how completely exposed the Climate Change agenda has left Europe to Russian energy dependence.  To the point they're unable to take any tangible and damaging actions outside of direct conflict with Russia that won't hurt them more than they hurt the Russians. Without Russian gas most of Europe would freeze to death during the Winter.  These same "Green" policies being pushed in America by radical elements inside and outside the administration.  When it comes to Russian collusion, I found it interesting to read how Russian sources pumped more than $150M into NGO's and environmental groups to influence policies pushing renewables, solar, wind, etc., while they monopolized the oil and gas markets in Europe and formed a solid alliance with OPEC countries to form what's been referred to as OPEC+.  Now, instead of relying on domestic production in the face of much higher oil prices Biden begs the Saudi's to increase production.  Another assessment I have is the Saudi's are moving closer to Russia.  And if you've seen recent visuals on Saudi prince MBS greeting Putin you'd see something akin to an NFL TD celebration between players.  All this might also embolden Iran to seek better terms in current negotiations.  To quote Irv "what a mess".

 

If Biden had a couple functioning brain cells left and any semblance of concern for America, he'd wake up tomorrow morning and re-license the Keystone pipeline and re-think the demonization of the oil & gas sector which would send The Left into a tizzy and throw of plans laid out in Davos but it's time for the adults in the room to take charge.  It would send a message we're taking actions to counter Russian energy extortion and blackmail posture.  Of course, this is most unlikely to happen. 

[Niagara Bill]

2 hours ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

While we can debate how the situation came to this point it's looking clearer that Putin's Ukraine objective is to roll back the clock to 2014 when a Russia friendly government resided in Kiev.  Early on there was talk of Putin/Zelensky sit downs to discuss Ukraine neutrality implying the Russian invasion could stop and Zelensky's administration could remain in power but that seems to have fallen apart.  So now on to Plan B to be install a pro-Russian government.  One that will not join NATO and will expel Western "influences". 

 

I don't think these sanctions will have much of an impact.  And expelling Russia from SWIFT?  That's been talked about for years in the currency and trade sector.  Russia has systemically eliminated most of its dollar reserves or direct dollar exposure.  If blocked from SWIFT there are alternatives.  The key theme is all of the US alliances actions and reactions have been anticipated.  Russian strategists will conclude the West has no resolve for conflict.  And still doesn't get it.  

 

Outside of the hostilities my key takeaway is how completely exposed the Climate Change agenda has left Europe to Russian energy dependence.  To the point they're unable to take any tangible and damaging actions outside of direct conflict with Russia that won't hurt them more than they hurt the Russians. Without Russian gas most of Europe would freeze to death during the Winter.  These same "Green" policies being pushed in America by radical elements inside and outside the administration.  When it comes to Russian collusion, I found it interesting to read how Russian sources pumped more than $150M into NGO's and environmental groups to influence policies pushing renewables, solar, wind, etc., while they monopolized the oil and gas markets in Europe and formed a solid alliance with OPEC countries to form what's been referred to as OPEC+.  Now, instead of relying on domestic production in the face of much higher oil prices Biden begs the Saudi's to increase production.  Another assessment I have is the Saudi's are moving closer to Russia.  And if you've seen recent visuals on Saudi prince MBS greeting Putin you'd see something akin to an NFL TD celebration between players.  All this might also embolden Iran to seek better terms in current negotiations.  To quote Irv "what a mess".

 

If Biden had a couple functioning brain cells left and any semblance of concern for America, he'd wake up tomorrow morning and re-license the Keystone pipeline and re-think the demonization of the oil & gas sector which would send The Left into a tizzy and throw of plans laid out in Davos but it's time for the adults in the room to take charge.  It would send a message we're taking actions to counter Russian energy extortion and blackmail posture.  Of course, this is most unlikely to happen. 

Climate change issue left US exposed. Oil from Soviets 595,000 barrels per day. Oil from Canada cancelled XL pipeline 880,000 barrels per day. Hmmmm

Price of gas, well up more than a little. 

 

[Tiberius]

2 hours ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

While we can debate how the situation came to this point it's looking clearer that Putin's Ukraine objective is to roll back the clock to 2014 when a Russia friendly government resided in Kiev.  Early on there was talk of Putin/Zelensky sit downs to discuss Ukraine neutrality implying the Russian invasion could stop and Zelensky's administration could remain in power but that seems to have fallen apart.  So now on to Plan B to be install a pro-Russian government.  One that will not join NATO and will expel Western "influences". 

 

I don't think these sanctions will have much of an impact.  And expelling Russia from SWIFT?  That's been talked about for years in the currency and trade sector.  Russia has systemically eliminated most of its dollar reserves or direct dollar exposure.  If blocked from SWIFT there are alternatives.  The key theme is all of the US alliances actions and reactions have been anticipated.  Russian strategists will conclude the West has no resolve for conflict.  And still doesn't get it.  

 

Outside of the hostilities my key takeaway is how completely exposed the Climate Change agenda has left Europe to Russian energy dependence.  To the point they're unable to take any tangible and damaging actions outside of direct conflict with Russia that won't hurt them more than they hurt the Russians. Without Russian gas most of Europe would freeze to death during the Winter.  These same "Green" policies being pushed in America by radical elements inside and outside the administration.  When it comes to Russian collusion, I found it interesting to read how Russian sources pumped more than $150M into NGO's and environmental groups to influence policies pushing renewables, solar, wind, etc., while they monopolized the oil and gas markets in Europe and formed a solid alliance with OPEC countries to form what's been referred to as OPEC+.  Now, instead of relying on domestic production in the face of much higher oil prices Biden begs the Saudi's to increase production.  Another assessment I have is the Saudi's are moving closer to Russia.  And if you've seen recent visuals on Saudi prince MBS greeting Putin you'd see something akin to an NFL TD celebration between players.  All this might also embolden Iran to seek better terms in current negotiations.  To quote Irv "what a mess".

 

If Biden had a couple functioning brain cells left and any semblance of concern for America, he'd wake up tomorrow morning and re-license the Keystone pipeline and re-think the demonization of the oil & gas sector which would send The Left into a tizzy and throw of plans laid out in Davos but it's time for the adults in the room to take charge.  It would send a message we're taking actions to counter Russian energy extortion and blackmail posture.  Of course, this is most unlikely to happen. 

You can also say that we should have been pushing green energy with more vigor to reduce our dependence on oil, right? 

 

 

[SCBills]

Pray hard for the current peace talks, because if they fail, I think Russia goes shock and awe.  
 

They’ve been sending in their old equipment and weaponry, while holding back 1/3 of their assembled forces.  
 

They’ve, for the most part, avoided infrastructure and civilian centers.   
 

That likely changes if Putin doesn’t get his way in peace talks and realizes his only options are taking the L or doing to Kyiv what he did to Chechnya. 

[sherpa]

46 minutes ago, SCBills said:

They’ve been sending in their old equipment and weaponry, while holding back 1/3 of their assembled forces.  
 

They’ve, for the most part, avoided infrastructure and civilian centers.   
 

That likely changes if Putin doesn’t get his way in peace talks and realizes his only options are taking the L or doing to Kyiv what he did to Chechnya. 

 

 

What is most interesting is that he has not used his air advantage, which is huge and would be a game changer.

Perhaps he was overconfident is his four prong ground forces, a strategy which hasn't worked at all.

Using his air force to its significant capability would tip the scales immediately, but it would be very messy, and whatever blowback he thought he would get from his invasion would pale if he turned the Russian Air Force loose.

[Warcodered]

as long as we keep the infinity stones away from Putin it should all be fine.

[SCBills]

31 minutes ago, sherpa said:

 

 

What is most interesting is that he has not used his air advantage, which is huge and would be a game changer.

Perhaps he was overconfident is his four prong ground forces, a strategy which hasn't worked at all.

Using his air force to its significant capability would tip the scales immediately, but it would be very messy, and whatever blowback he thought he would get from his invasion would pale if he turned the Russian Air Force loose.

Yup.   Certainly seems, absent a peace deal, Putin has two options… Lose the war or go scorched earth.   It’s now clear his ground invasion, sparing civilians, is not going to work. 

[snafu]

1 hour ago, sherpa said:

 

 

What is most interesting is that he has not used his air advantage, which is huge and would be a game changer.

Perhaps he was overconfident is his four prong ground forces, a strategy which hasn't worked at all.

Using his air force to its significant capability would tip the scales immediately, but it would be very messy, and whatever blowback he thought he would get from his invasion would pale if he turned the Russian Air Force loose.

Putin screwed himself.  His bluff got called. It is messy and people are losing their lives.  I’m sure this is exactly what Putin didn’t want. Especially since it seems that he miscalculated the amount of opposition Ukraine would put up. He’s going to have to escalate a lot and it will just have the opposite effect of what he was looking for. Or he’s going to have to settle for E. Ukraine and a more resolute NATO (at best).  And if he thinks Europe isn’t already considering energy alternatives, he’s a fool.  
 

Bad move, Putin. Too bad the people of Ukraine have to suffer for it.

 

 

 

[All_Pro_Bills]

2 hours ago, Tiberius said:

You can also say that we should have been pushing green energy with more vigor to reduce our dependence on oil, right? 

 

 

I wouldn't dismiss your approach but my conclusion is that initiative of accelerating the renewable switch is demonstrably the very thing that put Germany in the precarious position they now face.  Having to bow to pressure from Russia because they are dependent as their "green" initiatives faced with a windless and cloudy Winter has left them helpless.  And more expensive to boot!  So I'd need a good post mortem analysis of Germany's program identifying why they failed and how to avoid it.  My other concern is simply what was referred to in my past experience in the logistics world as "material availability".   I want the cheapest, quickest, and most effective approach to neutralizing the threat, and signaling to Putin that I mean business here and he's got to pay attention.

 

So objectively show me the benefits, risks & rewards of accelerating alternative energy sources against a conventional approach that I'm expect has an almost 100% chance of success.   

1 hour ago, sherpa said:

 

 

What is most interesting is that he has not used his air advantage, which is huge and would be a game changer.

Perhaps he was overconfident is his four prong ground forces, a strategy which hasn't worked at all.

Using his air force to its significant capability would tip the scales immediately, but it would be very messy, and whatever blowback he thought he would get from his invasion would pale if he turned the Russian Air Force loose.

I'm not sure what the answer is but you're asking the right questions.  Maybe Putin wants to use up all the old gear first since its paid for and would otherwise just be scraped (or sold off to 3rd world dictators).   Making something of what accountant's call "sunk costs".  Maybe he doesn't want to provide Western military analysts with any "game film" on his newest weapons.  Provide them with insights into the performance and capabilities of his latest weapons and aircraft in combat situations.  Like analysts get when aircraft encroach on a country's territory.  They don't have an attack in mind as much as wanting intel on response times and defense tactics.  

 

I also expect Putin's strategy is to avoid civilian casualties as much as is possible.  The goal isn't to eliminate the population.  The goal is to neutralize the Ukrainian military and either replace or re-purpose the current government with one that has a more "independent" posture with the West.   

Edited February 27, 2022 by All_Pro_Bills

[sherpa]

4 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

I wouldn't dismiss your approach but my conclusion is that initiative of accelerating the renewable switch is demonstrably the very thing that put Germany in the precarious position they now face.  Having to bow to pressure from Russia because they are dependent as their "green" initiatives faced with a windless and cloudy Winter has left them helpless.  And more expensive to boot!  So I'd need a good post mortem analysis of Germany's program identifying why they failed and how to avoid it.  My other concern is simply what was referred to in my past experience in the logistics world as "material availability".   I want the cheapest, quickest, and most effective approach to neutralizing the threat, and signaling to Putin that I mean business here and he's got to pay attention.

 

So objectively show me the benefits, risks & rewards of accelerating alternative energy sources against a conventional approach that I'm expect has an almost 100% chance of success.   

I'm not sure what the answer is but you're asking the right questions.  Maybe Putin wants to use up all the old gear first since its paid for and would otherwise just be scraped (or sold off to 3rd world dictators).   Making something of what accountant's call "sunk costs".  Maybe he doesn't want to provide Western military analysts with any "game film" on his newest weapons.  Provide them with insights into the performance and capabilities of his latest weapons and aircraft in combat situations.  Like analysts get when aircraft encroach on a country's territory.  They don't have an attack in mind as much as wanting intel on response times and defense tactics.  

 

I also expect Putin's strategy is to avoid civilian casualties as much as is possible.  The goal isn't to eliminate the population.  The goal is to neutralize the Ukrainian military and either replace or re-purpose the current government with one that has a more "independent" posture with the West.   

 

I think we got enough game film on them in Syria, a short time ago.

The Russian reluctance to use its Air Force to their capability seems like an attempt to not lose the PR battle, but they are grossly beyond that now.

Reading sanctions/air space prohibitions and a host of other responses against them from the rest of the world is like trying to read the school closing list on a snowy day on the south.

[All_Pro_Bills]

1 hour ago, sherpa said:

 

I think we got enough game film on them in Syria, a short time ago.

The Russian reluctance to use its Air Force to their capability seems like an attempt to not lose the PR battle, but they are grossly beyond that now.

Reading sanctions/air space prohibitions and a host of other responses against them from the rest of the world is like trying to read the school closing list on a snowy day on the south.

It seems every country is joining the sanctions and restrictions.  Except China.  But is that any surprise?  

[SCBills]

9 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

It seems every country is joining the sanctions and restrictions.  Except China.  But is that any surprise?  

China, India and Iran.. along with some other small countries that they use as puppets.  
 

Worst case scenario looks like it could be the inevitable outcome… see Grozny, Chechnya for what the plans for Kyiv could be. 

[OrangeBills]

the takeaway that must be realized is the Green New Deal is JUST WRONG and needs to be abolished as a policy.

 

Gradual improvements in the Energy Supply equation are a must.  Europe and US have made horrendous decisions around Nuclear and willingness to frack for Nat Gas, both of which are pretty darn good for the environment.

 

Basically, Liberal Democrats can't see beyond the first derivative of the decisions they want to effect on their nations, to their peril.  Pretty simple.  It's all Energy

[Precision]

Putin's endgame was to move quickly, take Kiev and install a puppet government.  Sure, the world would apply sanctions, but Europe is reliant on Russian gas and after a few years everything would be back to normal.  So, a few years of no economic growth for a Russian aligned government in Kiev.  For an ex-KGB officer like Putin that's a good trade.

 

The problem is that Ukraine has put up more resistance than expected.  Now Putin has the problem of:

• More Russian troops and military equipment are being committed increasing the cost of this endeavor dramatically.
• More Ukrainians are being killed which will make those left less likely to accept a puppet regime.
• Ukraine is being devastated by the ongoing conflict so any economic benefit Putin might have received from Ukraine will likely go toward reconstruction.
• The longer this plays out the more time the world has to respond and apply further sanctions.
• The courage of the Ukrainians and specifically Zelensky have personalized this conflict for many due to the 24/7 news coverage.  The grass-roots world reaction will hurt Russia on many fronts.

The endgame for Putin now is much less clear.  A puppet government in Ukraine will likely fail.  Occupation will certainly lead to more Russian and Ukrainian deaths while becoming an economic drain on Russia.  Negotiations with the current government looks like a weak afterthought with any result being seen as a win for Zelensky.  Further, any of the above outcomes do not lessen sanctions in the near future.   

 

On a related note, this conflict has also revitalized NATO.  The failures in Afghanistan will be forgotten as the EU countries realize how important a strong NATO is as a deterrent to Russia.

 

Long term this could be the tipping point where Russia starts to decline rapidly.  Russia's main exports will never be worth more than they are right now.  Once the world transitions away from petroleum for transportation Russia will lose a significant source of income.  Their strongest ally could turn into an adversary as a weak Russia becomes an easy target for China.

 

[Warcodered]

8 minutes ago, Precision said:

Putin's endgame was to move quickly, take Kiev and install a puppet government.  Sure, the world would apply sanctions, but Europe is reliant on Russian gas and after a few years everything would be back to normal.  So, a few years of no economic growth for a Russian aligned government in Kiev.  For an ex-KGB officer like Putin that's a good trade.

 

The problem is that Ukraine has put up more resistance than expected.  Now Putin has the problem of:

• More Russian troops and military equipment are being committed increasing the cost of this endeavor dramatically.
• More Ukrainians are being killed which will make those left less likely to accept a puppet regime.
• Ukraine is being devastated by the ongoing conflict so any economic benefit Putin might have received from Ukraine will likely go toward reconstruction.
• The longer this plays out the more time the world has to respond and apply further sanctions.
• The courage of the Ukrainians and specifically Zelensky have personalized this conflict for many due to the 24/7 news coverage.  The grass-roots world reaction will hurt Russia on many fronts.

The endgame for Putin now is much less clear.  A puppet government in Ukraine will likely fail.  Occupation will certainly lead to more Russian and Ukrainian deaths while becoming an economic drain on Russia.  Negotiations with the current government looks like a weak afterthought with any result being seen as a win for Zelensky.  Further, any of the above outcomes do not lessen sanctions in the near future.   

 

On a related note, this conflict has also revitalized NATO.  The failures in Afghanistan will be forgotten as the EU countries realize how important a strong NATO is as a deterrent to Russia.

 

Long term this could be the tipping point where Russia starts to decline rapidly.  Russia's main exports will never be worth more than they are right now.  Once the world transitions away from petroleum for transportation Russia will lose a significant source of income.  Their strongest ally could turn into an adversary as a weak Russia becomes an easy target for China.

 

Also the longer this plays out the more time it gives the Russian people to react as well.