The Price Of Keeping Dawson Knox

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

5 hours ago, klos63 said:

Nah, I'll take your word on it. This is what happens when I don't read the entire thread.

He's a key player in one of the most dynamic offenses in the league.  We're not going to have Diggs, Davis, and Knox all getting 1000 yard seasons, it really doesn't happen like that. He should be signed.

We might be lucky to just get 700 or 800 yards out of him let alone 1000. His career year is under 600 yards. But some want to pay him like he is a 1,000 yard TE. Not even talking Kelce level production which is 1200+

[Doc]

2 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

We might be lucky to just get 700 or 800 yards out of him let alone 1000. His career year is under 600 yards. But some want to pay him like he is a 1,000 yard TE. Not even talking Kelce level production which is 1200+

 

Have you factored targets into your equation?

[Albany,n.y.]

21 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Who said low ball offer?! I laugh at people who read something and interpret it with their beliefs and not for the face value it was written. Fair Market Value. 

Offer him a contract now before the price goes up is NOT fair market value.  Any agent knows not to sign a contract unless it is anticipated value, not the current value which is a LOWBALL as presented in the post I comment on.  I'm laughing at anyone who says sign him now before his price goes up & claims that's fair market value.  Common sense says it isn't.  

21 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

But there is incentive for Knox to get a deal done.  For Knox there is getting guaranteed money and a bigger salary earlier.   

 

If this is a place Knox wants to be, and he is being treated fairly he should be receptive to taking the early deal - just as Josh did before him. 

 

If Knox performs the way everyone hopes, the Bills would probably renegotiate his contract before it expires in a similar fashion again- just as we all hope they will do with Josh.  This isn't the same FO that dealt with J Peters.

You're right, it's not the same front office.  That's why neither party is interested in signing a deal which "would probably" need renegotiation.  They signed Josh to one of the biggest contracts in the NFL.  The only thing they would want to do is restructure for cap relief, not renegotiate.   

[Don Otreply]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Bills go to the AFCC or SB, he's not going to another team for thew same money....no chance

Didn’t say he would, 

[Estro]

He's in the $10-12M per yr range now, IMO. With a big season I think he could push into the $13-14M range 

 

If Beane could lock him up for 4 years $45M now it'd be a deal

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

8 hours ago, Doc said:

 

Have you factored targets into your equation?

 

Yeah. His career high in targets is 71. Let's hope he gets to at least 100 next season so he can get to around 70 catches and 800 yards. Then I could see him earning a $10 million per year contract.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

8 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Offer him a contract now before the price goes up is NOT fair market value.  Any agent knows not to sign a contract unless it is anticipated value, not the current value which is a LOWBALL as presented in the post I comment on.  I'm laughing at anyone who says sign him now before his price goes up & claims that's fair market value.  Common sense says it isn't.  

 

 

I would think somewhere around $8 million per year currently would be fair market value. Knox hasn't really done much to warrant $8 million per year on a long term deal but he also has some upside if he can take another jump in 2022. It would be a good deal for both parties. Around 3 years $24 million year seems fair. Knox gets paid well above his career production but also can get a new contract fairly quick if he ends up outperforming that $8 million per year deal. 

4 hours ago, Estro said:

He's in the $10-12M per yr range now, IMO. With a big season I think he could push into the $13-14M range 

 

If Beane could lock him up for 4 years $45M now it'd be a deal

 

I don't see it. If a big season is 100 receptions and 1200 yards then yeah I guess he'll be in line for $14 million per year. But that is basically asking him to double his production from last season which already happened to be a career year for him. $10-12M now for 50 receptions and almost 600 yards?

[Buddo]

I think people's expectations for what constitutes a good TE, or good TE production, are rather unrealistic.

 

Without going into it in too much detail, Kelce and Kittle, are two guys who regularly go over 1000 yds a season. Not so sure there are any others currently.

 

Gronk has done it a few times, but not even half of the years he's been in the NFL, iirc. Similarly Antonio Gates.

 

All 4 of the above, are good candidates for the HOF, eventually. Gronk and Kelce will probably be first ballots, likewise Kittle if he continues the way he has been going.

 

Gates I think will get there, but it might take a year or two.

 

People are citing 1000yd seasons for TEs as if they grow on trees, which is simply not the case.

 

Ertz has only had one year where he broke 1000. Gesicki hasn't had a year where he broke 800. Ertz being towards the end of his career, and Gesicki at the start of his, both of whom are generally considered to be 'good' TEs.

 

Now, cap concerns aside, it does seem to me, that now is about the optimum time for the Bills to extend Knox. They can afford to be relatively generous, and offer something in the $6 to $8million range, which would be a fair offer for what he has done up to now, with part of the amount being for future 'expectations'.

 

The point about that sort of offer, is that it's potentially a decent deal for both sides. Knox gets paid now with a decent amount of guarantees, and the Bills get a guy they are developing, at a reasonable cost for a few more years.

 

In Knox's case , I think you could throw in a few incentives for yardage, which could come into play if he continues his improvement. e.g. for an 800yd season.

 

A final 'what if', that nobody seems to have bothered with, is that what happens if he just reproduces last seasons form?

 

Somebody might be prepared to overpay him, but those sorts of numbers, probably only put him in the range of that $6 to $8 million per, anyway - and he will have wasted a year waiting to get it.

[Einstein's Dog]

14 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

You're right, it's not the same front office.  That's why neither party is interested in signing a deal which "would probably" need renegotiation.  They signed Josh to one of the biggest contracts in the NFL.  The only thing they would want to do is restructure for cap relief, not renegotiate.   

There is incentive for both sides to do a deal.  Knox would get more money now, a guarantee and a signing bonus.  The Bills FO should want to get him in a contract early if they like him and want him for the future.  And the Bills should want a top ten TE at a 2022 market rate in their plans for the future.  As for Josh, our interlligent FO will never let him hit free agency, they will continue to redo the contract before it expires.

 

42 minutes ago, Buddo said:

I think people's expectations for what constitutes a good TE, or good TE production, are rather unrealistic.

 

Now, cap concerns aside, it does seem to me, that now is about the optimum time for the Bills to extend Knox. They can afford to be relatively generous, and offer something in the $6 to $8million range, which would be a fair offer for what he has done up to now, with part of the amount being for future 'expectations'.

 

The point about that sort of offer, is that it's potentially a decent deal for both sides. Knox gets paid now with a decent amount of guarantees, and the Bills get a guy they are developing, at a reasonable cost for a few more years.

 

In Knox's case , I think you could throw in a few incentives for yardage, which could come into play if he continues his improvement. e.g. for an 800yd season.

 

A final 'what if', that nobody seems to have bothered with, is that what happens if he just reproduces last seasons form?

 

Somebody might be prepared to overpay him, but those sorts of numbers, probably only put him in the range of that $6 to $8 million per, anyway - and he will have wasted a year waiting to get it.

You start by bringing in excellent points about how there is more to a TE than just yardage but end up with a terrible result.  Look at his snap percentage, blocking upgrade, and TDs.   You ask "what happens if he just reproduces?", you mean stays a top ten TE?  Pay him like a top ten TE, but do it now before you have to pay him like a top 5 TE at 2023 prices.

 

$6M to $8M is not going to do it.  J Smith got $12M last year.  What's the plan when Knox leaves, buy a R Tonyan for the estimated $10.8M or the Schultz at $12.3, and those are this years estimated prices - no one  sees the prices coming down.  Godert got $14M last year.  If Knox hits FA, you're right someone will probably send an overpay offer, but it will certainly not be a paltry $6-8M range, more like $13-15M at that point.  The FO should not let that happen.

[T master]

Just give him some mail box money tell him that the Bills will give him a very modest 3 or 4 year contract & every second monday of the month that he would find a inconspicuous envelope in his mail box full of cash or a deposit in a off shore account that would keep him happy & the cap very low for the Bills .

 

I'm actually (in todays NFL) surprised that things like this don't truly happen with the likes of J.J. in Dallas & Kraft in Boston .

[Doc]

7 minutes ago, T master said:

Just give him some mail box money tell him that the Bills will give him a very modest 3 or 4 year contract & every second monday of the month that he would find a inconspicuous envelope in his mail box full of cash or a deposit in a off shore account that would keep him happy & the cap very low for the Bills .

 

I'm actually (in todays NFL) surprised that things like this don't truly happen with the likes of J.J. in Dallas & Kraft in Boston .

 

Who says it doesn't/didn't?

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

$6M to $8M is not going to do it.  J Smith got $12M last year.  What's the plan when Knox leaves, buy a R Tonyan for the estimated $10.8M or the Schultz at $12.3, and those are this years estimated prices - no one  sees the prices coming down.  

 

The Jonnu Smith deal should be a cautionary tale. Not one that teams should be like "well, that's the going rate for a TE so we will have to pay it." Jonnu compiled a 9 TD season in his last year with the Titans but the rest of his numbers were not top 10. He scored 1 TD last year as a Patriot. His last season with the Titans was pretty similar to Knox's most recent season. 

[Doc]

6 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

The Jonnu Smith deal should be a cautionary tale. Not one that teams should be like "well, that's the going rate for a TE so we will have to pay it." Jonnu compiled a 9 TD season in his last year with the Titans but the rest of his numbers were not top 10. He scored 1 TD last year as a Patriot. His last season with the Titans was pretty similar to Knox's most recent season. 

 

The difference is that Smith was in his 4th/contract year.  Knox had a better year than Smith did in his 3rd year of a 4 year deal.  Smith's $12.5M/year is Knox's floor for a contract right now. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

15 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

The difference is that Smith was in his 4th/contract year.  Knox had a better year than Smith did in his 3rd year of a 4 year deal.  Smith's $12.5M/year is Knox's floor for a contract right now. 

 

You may be correct unfortunately given the market. Just hope Knox's career year doesn't end up being around what he did last year if we sign him to $10-12 million per year. 

[Sierra Foothills]

On 2/25/2022 at 8:47 AM, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Title sounds like a Hallmark channel sobfest. 🤔

 

On 2/25/2022 at 9:21 AM, BuffaloBillies said:

 

A heartbreaking drama of a family torn apart by a troubled teen's lack of judgment and bad decisions.

They're willing to fight to keep the family together, but at what cost?

 

I'd appreciate if you guys didn't comment too much on the episodes. The Missus and I plan not to watch until the end of the season and then binge watch the whole thing.

 

Thank you.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

On 2/25/2022 at 10:41 PM, YoloinOhio said:

Life comes at you fast I guess

Probably will be working for Beane soon. Ink isn’t even dry on that Ian Thomas contract.

"Matt, it's about this contract you gave Darnold..."

 

3 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

 

I'd appreciate if you guys didn't comment too much on the episodes. The Missus and I plan not to watch until the end of the season and then binge watch the whole thing.

 

Thank you.

Good, I just negotiated the theme music:

 

[Sierra Foothills]

Just for further context, Hunter Henry got a 3 year $37 million contract from the Patriots*** after compiling 60 receptions for 613 yards (10.2 ypr) and 4 TDs for the Chargers in 2020.

 

He rewarded New England with 50 catches, 603 yards (12.1 ypr), and 9 TDs.

 

Those numbers are a bit misleading IMO. It looks to me like Henry struggles to get separation and that he compiled many of his excellent stats based on being schemed wide open (naked bootlegs, misdirection, etc).

 

He is however very sure-handed and an excellent blocker but more of a poor man's Jason Witten or Mark Andrews IMO. Maybe I'm wrong about Henry. Regardless he received an average of over $12 million/year.

[Doc]

2 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

Just for further context, Hunter Henry got a 3 year $37 million contract from the Patriots*** after compiling 60 receptions for 613 yards (10.2 ypr) and 4 TDs for the Chargers in 2020.

 

He rewarded New England with 50 catches, 603 yards (12.1 ypr), and 9 TDs.

 

Those numbers are a bit misleading IMO. It looks to me like Henry struggles to get separation and that he compiled many of his excellent stats based on being schemed wide open (naked bootlegs, misdirection, etc).

 

He is however very sure-handed and an excellent blocker but more of a poor man's Jason Witten or Mark Andrews IMO. Maybe I'm wrong about Henry. Regardless he received an average of over $12 million/year.

 

And he only caught 66.7% of his targets...

[syhuang]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

And he only caught 66.7% of his targets...

 But if you use an arbitrary threshold of 65%, that would make his catch rate look better.😉

[LABILLBACKER]

16 hours ago, Buddo said:

I think people's expectations for what constitutes a good TE, or good TE production, are rather unrealistic.

 

Without going into it in too much detail, Kelce and Kittle, are two guys who regularly go over 1000 yds a season. Not so sure there are any others currently.

 

Gronk has done it a few times, but not even half of the years he's been in the NFL, iirc. Similarly Antonio Gates.

 

All 4 of the above, are good candidates for the HOF, eventually. Gronk and Kelce will probably be first ballots, likewise Kittle if he continues the way he has been going.

 

Gates I think will get there, but it might take a year or two.

 

People are citing 1000yd seasons for TEs as if they grow on trees, which is simply not the case.

 

Ertz has only had one year where he broke 1000. Gesicki hasn't had a year where he broke 800. Ertz being towards the end of his career, and Gesicki at the start of his, both of whom are generally considered to be 'good' TEs.

 

Now, cap concerns aside, it does seem to me, that now is about the optimum time for the Bills to extend Knox. They can afford to be relatively generous, and offer something in the $6 to $8million range, which would be a fair offer for what he has done up to now, with part of the amount being for future 'expectations'.

 

The point about that sort of offer, is that it's potentially a decent deal for both sides. Knox gets paid now with a decent amount of guarantees, and the Bills get a guy they are developing, at a reasonable cost for a few more years.

 

In Knox's case , I think you could throw in a few incentives for yardage, which could come into play if he continues his improvement. e.g. for an 800yd season.

 

A final 'what if', that nobody seems to have bothered with, is that what happens if he just reproduces last seasons form?

 

Somebody might be prepared to overpay him, but those sorts of numbers, probably only put him in the range of that $6 to $8 million per, anyway - and he will have wasted a year waiting to get it.

Totally agree. I think if Knox becomes a yearly 9-10 td guy, I could care less about targets, catches or yards.  Guys like Kelce & Kittle are used like WR1's.  6-8 might be a little low. I'd sign him to 10/yr with incentives.