The Price Of Keeping Dawson Knox

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, loyal2dagame said:

People are quick to forget Tony Gonzales and Shannon Sharpe

 

Shannon was before my time. I love Gonzalez but have Gronk higher. He blocked like a tackle and made catches like a wideout. 

[Einstein's Dog]

6 minutes ago, Forward Progress said:

What a difference a year makes!!!!  
 

Last offseason, we had endless debates on how to upgrade the TE position because Knox was too inconsistent catching the ball. 

 

Now we have a tough financial decision to make because Knox has developed into a top-tier TE, and will get paid well in his next contact.   I want Knox to remain as an important part of our core team - good TE’s are hard to find and we are lucky to have one of the good ones. I prefer to extend Knox this off-season as his price will go higher with the salary caps going up.  

I agree.  Sign Knox.

 

Still could use another TE though, a better TE2.  Seems like they thought about Ertz last year, this year I hope they investigate Gronk.

[Don Otreply]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

There were 15 TE's who caught 0ver 70% of their targets last year.  Knox wasn't one of them.  

 

Yes he scored lots of TDs--make him show he can do so again.  With massive network/streaming contracts on the near horizon which will likely dwarf the record smashing ones they are about to replace, the "risk" of waiting to pay a guy like this is minimized.  The cap increase will make it much easier to pay him an upper tier contract in years to come, if he has another high scoring season in 2022.  If he doesn't--and has a 40-50 catch year for 500 or so and a handful of TDs, pay him what that's worth.  

 

Logan was injured last season.  He is perhaps a cautionary tale for paying a guy for one breakout season.

On this note is Tre White a cautionary tail? Like I stated previously, future performance after contact extensions , carries risks, it’s part and parcel of doing business in the NFL, is it not?  Things like that do happen to very important members of a team, look at Joe Burrows, first year, gets his knee blown up, sh-t happens. 
 

  With all those revenue streams forth coming, extending Knox really isn’t such a big deal. 
 

Beane isn’t a fool,  he isn’t going to hamstring the teams finances, there isn’t a lot to worry about, outside of Russia causing the world oil prices to skyrocket with their wag the dog war…

Edited February 25, 2022 by Don Otreply

[LABILLBACKER]

30 minutes ago, Forward Progress said:

What a difference a year makes!!!!  
 

Last offseason, we had endless debates on how to upgrade the TE position because Knox was too inconsistent catching the ball. 

 

Now we have a tough financial decision to make because Knox has developed into a top-tier TE, and will get paid well in his next contact.   I want Knox to remain as an important part of our core team - good TE’s are hard to find and we are lucky to have one of the good ones. I prefer to extend Knox this off-season as his price will go higher with the salary caps going up.  

We should extend him now before his price tag goes well beyond 10-12M/yr.  Draft a TE2 like Greg Dulcich from UCLA and get Dawson locked up before he has another 9-10 td season. 

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

On this note is Tre White a cautionary tail? 

 

In what way?

[Gugny]

19 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

On this note is Tre White a cautionary tail? …

 

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

6 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Pay him this off-season, his price is only going to go up. 

Agree 100%, hoping they can extend him this offseason. Sky's the limit for Knox.

 

If you offer him the Logan Thomas contract now, I think he takes it. Will be a lot more painful/expensive in 2023 after he's taken another step. 

[ColoradoBills]

7 minutes ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

Agree 100%, hoping they can extend him this offseason. Sky's the limit for Knox.

 

If you offer him the Logan Thomas contract now, I think he takes it. Will be a lot more painful/expensive in 2023 after he's taken another step. 

 

Agree.  Give Dawson his $8M per but I would like to see a 4-year deal.  

[Mark Vader]

2 hours ago, loyal2dagame said:

People are quick to forget Tony Gonzales and Shannon Sharpe

And Antonio Gates.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:

And Antonio Gates.

 

Have Gronk above him too. 

[Don Otreply]

40 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

In what way?

I didn’t say it was, I was questioning another posters comment on a player being injured after a contract extension, being the case. 

34 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

Well well now, that is a cautionary tail isn’t it, 😂

[Albany,n.y.]

6 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

Pay him this off-season, his price is only going to go up. 

Every time I see a post like this I laugh.  Don't you think Knox is thinking the same thing & for that reason the only way he's signing is if he gets big $?  It's as if some people think that players don't consult their agents and the team can get away with a lowball offer.  Even if the player does sign, a low contract will cause problems if the player and his agent think they've exceeded his contract.  Remember, the Bills & Jason Peters reached an impasse that resulted in him being traded away just as he was approaching his prime years because they got away with a low contract-until they didn't.    

[Mr. WEO]

2 hours ago, syhuang said:

 

Do you know who also wasn't one of them? Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce.

 

Or we can manipulate stats further, how many of these TEs over 70% catch/target with more than 20 catches also have higher yard per catch than Know? only 2, Kittle and Goedert.

 

The point? stats are easy to manipulate to make the point people want to make.

 

Or you could simply look at their respective careers to this point and get back to us....

 

Wasn't me "manipulating stats"--I didn't initially put them up.  I was responding.  

1 hour ago, Don Otreply said:

On this note is Tre White a cautionary tail? Like I stated previously, future performance after contact extensions , carries risks, it’s part and parcel of doing business in the NFL, is it not?  Things like that do happen to very important members of a team, look at Joe Burrows, first year, gets his knee blown up, sh-t happens. 
 

  With all those revenue streams forth coming, extending Knox really isn’t such a big deal. 
 

Beane isn’t a fool,  he isn’t going to hamstring the teams finances, there isn’t a lot to worry about, outside of Russia causing the world oil prices to skyrocket with their wag the dog war…

 

Tre White isn't relative to this conversation--he was one of the best at his position for the bulk of his first contract so he got paid as such.  Dawson Knox isn't.

 

 

Anyway, since future money for the cap will be significant, make Knox earn his big payday with a second above average season.  That's not a radical idea.

Edited February 26, 2022 by Mr. WEO

[syhuang]

5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Or you could simply look at their respective careers to this point and get back to us....

 

Wasn't me "manipulating stats"--I didn't initially put them up.  I was responding.  

 

The stat I replied to is definitely the one you brought up. In case you forgot, the stat I responded to is this one you wrote: "There were 15 TE's who caught 0ver 70% of their targets last year.  Knox wasn't one of them."

 

Anyway, the point is that stats are easy to manipulate to make the point people want to make.

Edited February 26, 2022 by syhuang

[Einstein's Dog]

31 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Every time I see a post like this I laugh.  Don't you think Knox is thinking the same thing & for that reason the only way he's signing is if he gets big $?  It's as if some people think that players don't consult their agents and the team can get away with a lowball offer.  Even if the player does sign, a low contract will cause problems if the player and his agent think they've exceeded his contract.  Remember, the Bills & Jason Peters reached an impasse that resulted in him being traded away just as he was approaching his prime years because they got away with a low contract-until they didn't.    

But there is incentive for Knox to get a deal done.  For Knox there is getting guaranteed money and a bigger salary earlier.   

 

If this is a place Knox wants to be, and he is being treated fairly he should be receptive to taking the early deal - just as Josh did before him. 

 

If Knox performs the way everyone hopes, the Bills would probably renegotiate his contract before it expires in a similar fashion again- just as we all hope they will do with Josh.  This isn't the same FO that dealt with J Peters.

[Mr. WEO]

Just now, syhuang said:

 

The stat I replied to is definitely the one you brought up. In case you forgot, the stat I responded to is the one you wrote: "There were 15 TE's who caught 0ver 70% of their targets last year.  Knox wasn't one of them."

 

I was responding to Donotreply who cited Knox's catch % as a reason to pay him now (I pointed out it wasn't on par with his TE cohort---i.e., nothing special).  

 

Scroll up to keep up....

[syhuang]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

I was responding to Donotreply who cited Knox's catch % as a reason to pay him now (I pointed out it wasn't on par with his TE cohort---i.e., nothing special).  

 

Scroll up to keep up....

 

not exactly, he says high rate and scores a lot of TDs, not just catch%.

 

the stat I replied to is "There were 15 TE's who caught 0ver 70% of their targets last year.  Knox wasn't one of them." which is brought up by you.

 

Anyway, the point is that stats are easy to manipulate to make the point people want to make.

[SoCal Deek]

My two cents: If they are going to pay Knox that kind of money the new OC needs to use/target him more. 

[Robert Paulson]

7 hours ago, loyal2dagame said:

I'd wait until mid season. Make sure last year wasn't a one off before making a big commitment. 

he has gotten better every year and this year he actually blocked a bit. if you can get him for  $12-15M/year ave i'd jump on it.

 

it is only going to go up 

[Mr. WEO]

4 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

 

 

intermediary stats are secondary to the #1 statistic which is scoring points, add in catching the passes when target, in those two categories, Knox is ranked #1 & #2, I mean is it or is it not the end results that matter the most???

 

3 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

 
 

   You appear to be quite risk adverse about  a guy who catches his targets at a very high rate, and scores a lot of TDs, 

 

14 minutes ago, syhuang said:

 

not exactly, he says high rate and scores a lot of TDs, not just catch%.

 

the stat I replied to is "There were 15 TE's who caught 0ver 70% of their targets last year.  Knox wasn't one of them." which is brought up by you.

 

Anyway, the point is that stats are easy to manipulate to make the point people want to make.

 

His catch rate was among the worst of the TEs.  I posted to refute that claim. It's not "manipulating stats" to point out an error....

 

Not sure what the issue is here.  anyway, don't pay the guy yet.