The Price Of Keeping Dawson Knox

[JaCrispy]

1 hour ago, WhoTom said:

 

Last year we were saying the same thing about three FAs, yet Beane found a way to sign them all.

Sure...but you can’t do it with every player you draft...

[Mr. WEO]

11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No he wasn't. Tonyan was an RFA. Packers had total team control. Sadly for him he then tore his ACL which means what would have been a big payday this year might now not transpire.

 

My point was that paying a TE for having a leading TD year got him that valuation.   I don't think it's the metric to base a contract on for TE.    

 

 

Knox has had 1 money year in 3.  Why not see how he does 1 more season for peanuts.  They can franchise him after that for 11+ million. or pay him.

Edited February 25, 2022 by Mr. WEO

[Don Otreply]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

What are the 49ers paying  Kittle  75 million for?

 

 

Robert Tonyan had more TDs a year ago (11) and also had the most (tied).  He was rewarded by the Packers for that with a 3.4 million 1 year contract extension this past season.  

 

 

 

 

No one gets a huge contract for being previously underutilized....

I have no idea, you will have to ask Kittles GM that question,

 

intermediary stats are secondary to the #1 statistic which is scoring points, add in catching the passes when target, in those two categories, Knox is ranked #1 & #2, I mean is it or is it not the end results that matter the most???
 

Knox is the best TE the Bills have had in ages, and he has been on a constant up swing in performance since his first season, what the heck more can one realistically hope for?? 

[Chandler#81]

2 hours ago, Back2Buff said:

Knox is average to me.  Doesn't have great hands, and not overly big.  Also doesn't run great routes.

 

His production has mostly been on depiction and scheme.  I think there are a lot of guys that Allen and play calling would make look good in the TE spot.

Knowing a thing or two about the teams’ history, your take amuses me. Warlick, Metzalaars, Reimersma & McKeller are arguably the best of a mediocre lot spanning 60+ years. While Knox definitely got off to a weak start, he’s now moving into rarified air as our best ever TE. Couple this with the confidence our superstar QB has in him, and he’s definitely worth a 2nd contract.

[Don Otreply]

11 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

My point was that paying a TE for having a leading TD year got him that valuation.   I don't think it's the metric to base a contract on for TE.    

 

 

Knox has had 1 money year in 3.  Why not see how he does 1 more season for peanuts.  They can franchise him after that for 11+ million. or pay him.

I agree one money season is a small sample size, but he has been on an upswing for two consecutive seasons, and at this point extending him will be less expensive than waiting and him have another season similar to this past season, and as time progresses, saving a couple million here and there in player contacts is going to be very important. 

[Einstein's Dog]

40 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

He sent me a Valentine.  Sign him at all costs.  🤣

 

All kidding aside, we are going to have several tough decisions with our own in house talent as we move into the new world of Josh Allens contract.  Right now, I think its plausible Knox stays here long term, but if he goes out and has an even bigger year this next one, his price tag might get too big.  

 

I think one of the great things about Beane though is he really has been a master at contracts and managing the cap.  If his value to the team matches what we will have to pay him to keep him, I think Beane will find a way to get it done.  

 

But, this is another situation like I discussed about Christian Kirk.  Knox has not made much money thus far in his career.  He is a guy that likely has just 6 figures in his bank account at this stage after taxes, agents, managers, etc.  If he comes out and has an even bigger year this year...say he puts up 800+ yards and double digit TD's...then what we can probably afford and what the open market could offer him might end up being a large gap.  And thats when retaining him I think might get our of reach because the hometown discount could mean leaving a lot of money on the table.  

 

But truthfully, I think in this offense the way we spread the ball around with so many mouths to feed, Knox (or any TE for that matter) is more likely going to be that 400-600 yard guy and be more of a Redzone threat with 8 to 10 TD's.  If that stays true this year, then I think there is a higher probability we can keep him here as the gap may not be as big to what the open market dictates and what we can afford.  

I disagree that this is a tough decision.  Pay the man market salary soon.  The longer you wait the higher it goes, until it gets frenzied in the FA market.  After FA this year, the market for Knox seems like it will be a Tonyan/Schultz level a little north of $12M/yr.  If they wait until then, then pay it.  Knox is worth it.  I would advise them not to wait, try and sneak Knox in under that amount now.  It will look good later (see Josh contract before Jackson/Murray).

 

Knox is a poster child for the process.  Raw, drafted, player who has worked hard and improved dramatically.  He is improving into the top ten TE category.  Knox is the type you lock up early, and long term, and fill in the gaps around.  Knox is a central culture type guy, true Bills material.

 

This differs from the C Kirk situation in that the Bills can negotiate prior to the end of his contract.  Market contracts with guaranteed money a year early are a great way to get a deal done.

 

And what about the alternatives?  TEs are notoriously bad as rookies, can't count on that at all.  Our other TEs right now are a joke.  And some schlep like the OP started with, Ian Thomas, is going for 3yr $16.5M.

 

To me, it's a no-brainer you pay Knox, the sooner the better.

[Mr. WEO]

13 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

I have no idea, you will have to ask Kittles GM that question,

 

intermediary stats are secondary to the #1 statistic which is scoring points, add in catching the passes when target, in those two categories, Knox is ranked #1 & #2, I mean is it or is it not the end results that matter the most???
 

Knox is the best TE the Bills have had in ages, and he has been on a constant up swing in performance since his first season, what the heck more can one realistically hope for?? 

 

 

 

1 minute ago, Don Otreply said:

I agree one money season is a small sample size, but he has been on an upswing for two consecutive seasons, and at this point extending him will be less expensive than waiting and him have another season similar to this past season, and as time progresses, saving a couple million here and there in player contacts is going to be very important. 

 

Knox stepping over  the inch high bar set by Buffalo Bills TEs throughout history isn't a reason to back up the Brinks truck.  Neither is an outlier TD total. 

 

If money savings is the goal, then pay him his current contract this season.  If he doesn't have another standout year, then make him an offer that matches his value.  Why pay him for one above average year (in a single stat) with a huge contract?  Odds are he will not score 9-10 TDs next season.   No TE may have that many.  Kelce has had 9 or more only 3 times, Andrews twice and Kittles not once.  

[loyal2dagame]

37 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 Agree totally on Gronk. He is the best I have seen. 

People are quick to forget Tony Gonzales and Shannon Sharpe

[Don Otreply]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

 

 

Knox stepping over  the inch high bar set by Buffalo Bills TEs throughout history isn't a reason to back up the Brinks truck.  Neither is an outlier TD total. 

 

If money savings is the goal, then pay him his current contract this season.  If he doesn't have another standout year, then make him an offer that matches his value.  Why pay him for one above average year (in a single stat) with a huge contract?  Odds are he will not score 9-10 TDs next season.   No TE may have that many.  Kelce has had 9 or more only 3 times, Andrews twice and Kittles not once.  

I don’t think this backing up the “Brinks truck” is what going to happen, unless we wait to long.  
 

   You appear to be quite risk adverse about  a guy who catches his targets at a very high rate, and scores a lot of TDs, when is it you would advocate for taking a reasonable risk? Because as we all know, every extension of a player comes with a future performance risk…, it’s just part of the cost of doing business in the NFL. 

[Einstein's Dog]

48 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No he wasn't. Tonyan was an RFA. Packers had total team control. Sadly for him he then tore his ACL which means what would have been a big payday this year might now not transpire.

Tonyan's situation might be an excellent little helper to get Knox to sign early.  The injury bug.

 

Hopefully it might be used before FA though.  Because spotrac is estimating Tonyan signing for $10.8, injury and all.

[billybrew1]

4 hours ago, H2o said:

Stumbled across this article today

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2022/02/25/panthers-agree-to-three-year-contract-with-ian-thomas/

Here are his career stats: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/ThomIa00.htm

 

Not overly impressive to say the least, but the Panthers just gave this guy around $5.5M per season with $8M guaranteed. Hell, even Logan Thomas is getting $8m+ from the Commanders. 

 

This immediately made me think of what the cost is going to be to keep Dawson Knox if he's going to push for an actual Market Value, and not a team friendly deal. And, I mean, what do you do really? He's one of Josh's best friends and favorite targets on the team. Here are his stats: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KnoxDa00.htm . He battled through some injuries in year two, but really came on last season. Here's a look at the top TE contracts below. Knox is playing himself into that $10.5M and up per season range, especially if he takes another step forward from this past year. 

 

Yeah, it’s going to be very tough keeping the team together moving forward. That’s what this draft so important. 
Hopefully, soon we will (at least) get real compensation picks and that will help a little bit….We’ve got to hit on these drafts. Even on FAs post-draft. Lotsa work ahead for McBeane and friends.

[iccrewman112]

4 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

All we can hope for is the Josh Allen discount.

or maybe Josh Allen take a discount on his deal to have it redistributed to Knox.

[H2o]

13 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

 

 

Knox stepping over  the inch high bar set by Buffalo Bills TEs throughout history isn't a reason to back up the Brinks truck.  Neither is an outlier TD total. 

 

If money savings is the goal, then pay him his current contract this season.  If he doesn't have another standout year, then make him an offer that matches his value.  Why pay him for one above average year (in a single stat) with a huge contract?  Odds are he will not score 9-10 TDs next season.   No TE may have that many.  Kelce has had 9 or more only 3 times, Andrews twice and Kittles not once.  

What I was talking about originally was how guys like Ian Thomas, absolutely pedestrian at the position, are now getting $5.5M per season. I also noted that even our own former Logan Thomas is getting $8M+ per year from the Commanders. I don't know what you would deem his "value" at this point, but it is more than either of those two I can assure you that. 

[Don Otreply]

2 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

Knox, Edmunds, Oliver...take your pick...

 

We will, likely, only be able to Keep 1 of the 3...

I would opt for Knox & Oliver, Beane is a clever man, he will sign at least two. 

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, iccrewman112 said:

or maybe Josh Allen take a discount on his deal to have it redistributed to Knox.

 

Nah, unnecessary.

[Mr. WEO]

12 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

I don’t think this backing up the “Brinks truck” is what going to happen, unless we wait to long.  
 

   You appear to be quite risk adverse about  a guy who catches his targets at a very high rate, and scores a lot of TDs, when is it you would advocate for taking a reasonable risk? Because as we all know, every extension of a player comes with a future performance risk…, it’s just part of the cost of doing business in the NFL. 

 

There were 15 TE's who caught 0ver 70% of their targets last year.  Knox wasn't one of them.  

 

Yes he scored lots of TDs--make him show he can do so again.  With massive network/streaming contracts on the near horizon which will likely dwarf the record smashing ones they are about to replace, the "risk" of waiting to pay a guy like this is minimized.  The cap increase will make it much easier to pay him an upper tier contract in years to come, if he has another high scoring season in 2022.  If he doesn't--and has a 40-50 catch year for 500 or so and a handful of TDs, pay him what that's worth.  

10 minutes ago, H2o said:

What I was talking about originally was how guys like Ian Thomas, absolutely pedestrian at the position, are now getting $5.5M per season. I also noted that even our own former Logan Thomas is getting $8M+ per year from the Commanders. I don't know what you would deem his "value" at this point, but it is more than either of those two I can assure you that. 

 

Logan was injured last season.  He is perhaps a cautionary tale for paying a guy for one breakout season.

[Alphadawg7]

14 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I disagree that this is a tough decision.  Pay the man market salary soon.  The longer you wait the higher it goes, until it gets frenzied in the FA market.  After FA this year, the market for Knox seems like it will be a Tonyan/Schultz level a little north of $12M/yr.  If they wait until then, then pay it.  Knox is worth it.  I would advise them not to wait, try and sneak Knox in under that amount now.  It will look good later (see Josh contract before Jackson/Murray).

 

Knox is a poster child for the process.  Raw, drafted, player who has worked hard and improved dramatically.  He is improving into the top ten TE category.  Knox is the type you lock up early, and long term, and fill in the gaps around.  Knox is a central culture type guy, true Bills material.

 

This differs from the C Kirk situation in that the Bills can negotiate prior to the end of his contract.  Market contracts with guaranteed money a year early are a great way to get a deal done.

 

And what about the alternatives?  TEs are notoriously bad as rookies, can't count on that at all.  Our other TEs right now are a joke.  And some schlep like the OP started with, Ian Thomas, is going for 3yr $16.5M.

 

To me, it's a no-brainer you pay Knox, the sooner the better.

 

Yeah, I already agreed its best to pay him now.  I was talking if they don't agree to an extension and he becomes a free agent.  I didn't compare his situation to Kirk, I compared the lack of money he made to Kirk.  And the reason I mentioned that is the OP talked about a home town discount, which is quite plausible unless the gap for his open market value and what we can offer gets too big.  All the more reason to try and work an extension this year, but of course Knox and his agent would have to be interested in that this offseason.  

 

Im confident Beane is gonna try and get it done this offseason for all the reasons we have all been mentioning

[syhuang]

23 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

There were 15 TE's who caught 0ver 70% of their targets last year.  Knox wasn't one of them.  

 

 

Do you know who also wasn't one of them? Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce.

 

Or we can manipulate stats further, how many of these TEs over 70% catch/target with more than 20 catches also have higher yard per catch than Know? only 2, Kittle and Goedert.

 

The point? stats are easy to manipulate to make the point people want to make.

[Augie]

1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:

Knowing a thing or two about the teams’ history, your take amuses me. Warlick, Metzalaars, Reimersma & McKeller are arguably the best of a mediocre lot spanning 60+ years. While Knox definitely got off to a weak start, he’s now moving into rarified air as our best ever TE. Couple this with the confidence our superstar QB has in him, and he’s definitely worth a 2nd contract.

 

I think I tend to be higher on Knox than the average fan. I like his style, and I love the trajectory of his career. I don’t know how Beane is going to manage the cap going forward, but I’m thrilled that we have so many players I really want to keep around. It didn’t used to be that way. 

[Forward Progress]

What a difference a year makes!!!!  
 

Last offseason, we had endless debates on how to upgrade the TE position because Knox was too inconsistent catching the ball. 

 

Now we have a tough financial decision to make because Knox has developed into a top-tier TE, and will get paid well in his next contact.   I want Knox to remain as an important part of our core team - good TE’s are hard to find and we are lucky to have one of the good ones. I prefer to extend Knox this off-season as his price will go higher with the salary caps going up.