The Price Of Keeping Dawson Knox

[Einstein's Dog]

22 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

The Jonnu Smith deal should be a cautionary tale. Not one that teams should be like "well, that's the going rate for a TE so we will have to pay it." Jonnu compiled a 9 TD season in his last year with the Titans but the rest of his numbers were not top 10. He scored 1 TD last year as a Patriot. His last season with the Titans was pretty similar to Knox's most recent season. 

Not many non-cautionary tales out there though.  Godert at $14M, H Hunter $12.5, A Hooper's old contract at $10.5.  And soon to be on the scene R Tonyan at approx $10.5 and Schultz over $12M, along with Gesicki, who is a glorified slot, at >$12M.  When looking through the salaries the only kind of deals were Gronk and Ertz.

 

I would like to see the FO extend Knox into the 10M+ range and get Gronk.  Full service TEs take a beating.  Both Knox and Gronk missed time.

 

Give the Beas money to Gronk.  The Bills did better with McK when Beas was out, than they did w Sweeney when Knox was out.  Re-sign McK and draft a new slot.  

[H2o]

1 hour ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Not many non-cautionary tales out there though.  Godert at $14M, H Hunter $12.5, A Hooper's old contract at $10.5.  And soon to be on the scene R Tonyan at approx $10.5 and Schultz over $12M, along with Gesicki, who is a glorified slot, at >$12M.  When looking through the salaries the only kind of deals were Gronk and Ertz.

 

I would like to see the FO extend Knox into the 10M+ range and get Gronk.  Full service TEs take a beating.  Both Knox and Gronk missed time.

 

Give the Beas money to Gronk.  The Bills did better with McK when Beas was out, than they did w Sweeney when Knox was out.  Re-sign McK and draft a new slot.  

McKenzie ain't coming back. We won't pay him what he can get elsewhere and he sounded like a guy looking for a fresh start in the time since our season ended. 

[Einstein's Dog]

14 minutes ago, H2o said:

McKenzie ain't coming back. We won't pay him what he can get elsewhere and he sounded like a guy looking for a fresh start in the time since our season ended. 

Yeah, the odds seem against it right now based on some of his responses from before.  But that stuff is fluid.  McKenzie didn't get big offers last year, and that may be the case again. 

 

If the Bills let Beas go, the situation here would look very tempting for McKenzie.  If he gets a raise and is penciled in as the starter, just having to hold off a draft pick, I think that may be enough for him to realize that his problems last year were with some of the departed coaches.

[H2o]

Ran across this story just now.:

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2022/02/28/report-browns-are-willing-to-break-the-bank-for-david-njoku/

Quote

Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that the Browns “definitely” want Njoku back with the team, and that the Browns “are prepared to pay him the double-digit millions he’ll get on the open market.”

 

I know Cleveland is not exactly the model franchise, but they're about to pay Njoku 8 figures on top of already paying Austin Hooper 8 figures. This is what we are likely facing with Dawson Knox. Knox has 47 less catches, 500 less yards, and only one less career TD catches than Njoku has. Njoku has been in the league for 5 years, Knox only 3. Knox also wasn't really a part of the offense in college either as he didn't score a single TD while at Ole Miss. We should really look into extending his contract now as the $$$ tag is only going to continue to go up imo. 

[Doc]

1 hour ago, H2o said:

Ran across this story just now.:

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2022/02/28/report-browns-are-willing-to-break-the-bank-for-david-njoku/

 

I know Cleveland is not exactly the model franchise, but they're about to pay Njoku 8 figures on top of already paying Austin Hooper 8 figures. This is what we are likely facing with Dawson Knox. Knox has 47 less catches, 500 less yards, and only one less career TD catches than Njoku has. Njoku has been in the league for 5 years, Knox only 3. Knox also wasn't really a part of the offense in college either as he didn't score a single TD while at Ole Miss. We should really look into extending his contract now as the $$$ tag is only going to continue to go up imo. 

 

Dummies.  Just a 67.9% catch percentage.

[H2o]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

Dummies.  Just a 67.9% catch percentage.

Travis Kelce's catch percentage was 68.7%. Everyone quoting the "catch percentage" thing realizes it's just the number of catches divided by the number of targets, right? It's not like that player dropped the other 30% of their targets. Njoku actually had the lowest drop % of the three at 3.8%. Knox's drop percentage was 5.6% and Kelce's 7.5%. 

Edited February 28, 2022 by H2o

[Einstein's Dog]

35 minutes ago, H2o said:

Travis Kelce's catch percentage was 68.7%. Everyone quoting the "catch percentage" thing realizes it's just the number of catches divided by the number of targets, right? It's not like that player dropped the other 30% of their targets. Njoku actually had the lowest drop % of the three at 3.8%. Knox's drop percentage was 5.6% and Kelce's 7.5%. 

I think you missed Doc's sarcasm.

 

As for Njoku, it seems like it would be show a slight mistake out of Clev if they re-sign him off the FA market at >$10M.  Seems like they could  have extended him prior to the FA period and a better financial deal.  It's exactly why many of us are hoping the Bills get on to signing Knox, the cost will only go up. 

 

And Njoku for Cleveland shows the Bills should be upgrading the TE room.  Locking up Knox is a big part of the equation, but also shoring up TE2.  Cleveland will have Hooper and Njoku.  Tampa had Gronk/OJ and Brate, New England bought Hunter and J Smith.  The Bills should have more than one good TE.

[Warcodered]

 

[Eastport bills]

I go back and forth with this guy. He is not being used in our offense. He certainly has talent but they want to feature Kincaid because he’s more explosive and has better hands. You look at the way KC uses Noah Gray and Baltimore uses Likely as complementary TEs and you wonder if Dawson can’t be more involved. He’s great depth if nothing else.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

Looking forward to the Hallmark movie version of the thread, Part Deux.
🤔🤨🙄

[ColoradoBills]

1 minute ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Looking forward to the Hallmark movie version of the thread, Part Deux.
🤔🤨🙄

 

The 1st pages of this thread have a yellow hue to it.  That's old.

[boyst]

1 hour ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Looking forward to the Hallmark movie version of the thread, Part Deux.
🤔🤨🙄

Knox looks like the Hallmark character whose mom owns a cookie store in the rural mountains and lost her husband to a coal mining accident and now she is without insurance going through cancer as he left college early to help her make $20k a year in cookies that meets the six figure plus bonus c-suite exec woman who is high strung and visiting with her fiance to unwind only to meet him and leave it all behind.

[The Jokeman]

2 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

The 1st pages of this thread have a yellow hue to it.  That's old.

Leave Hugh Grant out of this. He deserves an Oscar with his performance in Heretic. lol

Edited November 26 by The Jokeman

[eball]

7 minutes ago, boyst said:

Knox looks like the Hallmark character whose mom owns a cookie store in the rural mountains and lost her husband to a coal mining accident and now she is without insurance going through cancer as he left college early to help her make $20k a year in cookies that meets the six figure plus bonus c-suite exec woman who is high strung and visiting with her fiance to unwind only to meet him and leave it all behind.

It’s scary how close to a Hallmark movie script that is. 😂

 

[gonzo1105]

I’m not advocating for Knox salary as I think they move on from him in 2026 but the reason why TEs get paid so much now is because there are not very man really good ones in the league. It’s much why you see Guard salaries skyrocketing in the NFL. Supply and Demand 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

5 hours ago, Eastport bills said:

I go back and forth with this guy. He is not being used in our offense. He certainly has talent but they want to feature Kincaid because he’s more explosive and has better hands. You look at the way KC uses Noah Gray and Baltimore uses Likely as complementary TEs and you wonder if Dawson can’t be more involved. He’s great depth if nothing else.

Yeah, when I hear our analysts talk about this team it does become a list of guys the Bills "need to get involved more". 

 

Dalton Kincaid is on the top of that list most days. They're always reminding you that the Bills took him in Round 1, Pick 25 and that they should be getting more throws down the field with him than they are. 

 

Dawson Knox is on the list, so is Ray Davis. 

 

And then you watch the games and see that two players are the steady drumbeat of this team: Shakir and Cook.

 

Cooper has played 2-1/2 games, Coleman doesn't separate and he's the X at 82% of routes, 5.6% total snaps from the slot, Ray Davis is a backup, and Dawson Knox is blocked by Kincaid. In 1-1/2 years the Bills under two coordinators have not been able to get both Knox and Kincaid meaningful catches at the same time. 

 

We've seen all year that this offense routinely hits 30+ points, but in doing so somebody is going to be left out - Samuel has been this guy the whole season, Ty Johnson was until the Bills carved out the 3rd Down back niche for him, Hollins took a smaller role when Cooper came in and Ray Davis is a breather back behind Cook. 

 

I've argued that the Bills keeping 5 Wide Receivers is the wrong organization philosophy because it leaves the team vulnerable when injuries hit. But when healthy, it's hard to get two tight ends going, 3-4 wide receivers and two backs. 

 

Also, the Bills have decided to run a bit more under Brady, so that's probably 1-2 catches a game that could have gone to Tight End or WR. 

 

 

 

Edited November 26 by Straight Hucklebuck

[boyst]

19 minutes ago, eball said:

It’s scary how close to a Hallmark movie script that is. 😂

 

My mom watches that crap all the time. 

[Eastport bills]

30 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Yeah, when I hear our analysts talk about this team it does become a list of guys the Bills "need to get involved more". 

 

Dalton Kincaid is on the top of that list most days. They're always reminding you that the Bills took him in Round 1, Pick 25 and that they should be getting more throws down the field with him than they are. 

 

Dawson Knox is on the list, so is Ray Davis. 

 

And then you watch the games and see that two players are the steady drumbeat of this team: Shakir and Cook.

 

Cooper has played 2-1/2 games, Coleman doesn't separate and he's the X at 82% of routes, 5.6% total snaps from the slot, Ray Davis is a backup, and Dawson Knox is blocked by Kincaid. In 2-1/2 years the Bills under two coordinators have not been able to get both Knox and Kincaid meaningful catches at the same time. 

 

We've seen all year that this offense routinely hits 30+ points, but in doing so somebody is going to be left out - Samuel has been this guy the whole season, Ty Johnson was until the Bills carved out the 3rd Down back niche for him, Hollins took a smaller role when Cooper came in and Ray Davis is a breather back behind Cook. 

 

I've argued that the Bills keeping 5 Wide Receivers is the wrong organization philosophy because it leaves the team vulnerable when injuries hit. But when healthy, it's hard to get two tight ends going, 3-4 wide receivers and two backs. 

 

Also, the Bills have decided to run a bit more under Brady, so that's probably 1-2 catches a game that could have gone to Tight End or WR. 

 

 

 

Great breakdown, the point you make about an effort to establish the run with Cook and bubble screens with Shakir and Samuel are giving the offense some juice. The targets are condensed because Josh is throwing less downfield. I’m so impressed with what Hollins has done with a few receptions each game. Shakir is the best slot receiver in football( certainly the clutchest)and Cooper looks like he will command double coverage.. It should be interesting to see how they deploy Kincaid and Coleman. They both could be good red zone options. I’m afraid as long as Kincaid’s 

active Knox is the odd man out.

[H2o]

1 hour ago, eball said:

It’s scary how close to a Hallmark movie script that is. 😂

 

Shows you what he's watching, just for the Holiday season. 

[machine gun kelly]

His release prior to2027would be significant, and you saw how Kinkaid was just out.  I’m in the amp. To keep him through 2026, and maybe Beane can get him to renominate like he did with Von.  It’s worth trying.

 

Well have cheap talent as I mentioned in another thread of5 picks in the top 4 rounds, and 10 overall.  In the later rounds I can see a kicker and backup QB for development.  That still leaves8 solid picks.

 

I kind of don’t know why people always want purge talent when so much if the investment is already sunk.  An easy question is do you trust Morris or Knox More as it’s not you’re $.