Walter Football Mock with the Hot Take on our MLB

[BuffaloRebound]

4 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Exactly, said this earlier in the thread that our front 4 has a big influence on the type of player that Edmunds (and Milano) can become.

 

For everyone claiming Edmunds needs to go, or we can easily replace him, what about our dline?  Newsflash, Edmunds and Milano (or whoever our LBs are) are playing behind a line that featured: Hughes, Oliver, Rousseau, Harry, Addison, Star, and a combination of Efe, Basham, AJ, and Butler.  

 

Do we honestly expect any of our LBs to perform well behind a group like that?  Milano even had a down season, from his prior work.  Certainly a correlation when we see both LBs not make splash plays, to me it points to Dline not performing as well.

 

Point is, get more physical/talented players in our front 4 and watch Edmunds/Milano be a top 5 combination.

You seems to be making the argument that money would be better spent on improving the D-Line than having 2 highly paid LB’s that don’t rush the passer.  And I agree with that.  

[Ya Digg?]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I mean, Beane hasn't been trotting around OBD wearing horseblinders, he knows who is in line to be paid and when

There’s even a slight chance he has a better idea than anyone on here!!!

[MasterStrategist]

9 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

You seems to be making the argument that money would be better spent on improving the D-Line than having 2 highly paid LB’s that don’t rush the passer.  And I agree with that.  

What I'm saying is we just wasted a ton of money, and got little return on investment on the dline. 

 

We invested top 10 money in the dline for consecutive seasons, with no where near that production. 

 

I'm saying we need to stop collecting 3-4 B to C grade players to rotate and find some top end talent in the front.  Beane and group have done wonders, except for what they paid for on the dline.

[BuffaloRebound]

4 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

What I'm saying is we just wasted a ton of money, and got little return on investment on the dline. 

 

We invested top 10 money in the dline for consecutive seasons, with no where near that production. 

 

I'm saying we need to stop collecting 3-4 B to C grade players to rotate and find some top end talent in the front.  Beane and group have done wonders, except for what they paid for on the dline.

I agree.  And I’m hopeful that McBeane surprises us with a premier edge rusher in free agency now that we’re a ring chasing destination.  I’m also coming around to Jordan Davis in 1st round.  I know NFL is pass-crazy but taking away teams ability to run the ball and making them 1 dimensional is an under-rated thing.  

[MPT]

On 2/25/2022 at 7:37 PM, JayBaller10 said:

This feels like a 30 for 30, “what if I told you…?”

So here’s mine - what if I told you that according to ESPN, the Bills DL finished 6th in pass rush win rate?

 

Then I would tell you that Jerry is very good at beating his man five yards down field of the QB. 

 

A high win rate that doesn't result in a high sack rate is a lot of wasted energy. It may force lesser QBs into bad decisions but a guy like Mahomes will just step into the giant holes created by the over pursuing rushers and either run for ten yards or take advantage of an unobstructed view of his receivers.

[Sierra Foothills]

9 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Would you mind telling us what these stats for other MLB (who are not, in their scheme, asked to blitz very often) ?

Since you know that MLBs around the league generally result in big plays and impressive stats in these categories, shouldn't be hard.

 

Here's a list of top-10 MLB around the league in 2020 which might help

https://www.fanrankings.com/nfl/articles/top-10-middle-linebackers-in-nfl-2021-rankings

I looked up 2021 stats for Int, PD, FF, SK, and TFL on a couple LB on that list:

Bobby Wagner 11 (add QB hits 14)

Fred Warner 12.5 (add QB hits 15.5)

Devin White 15.5

Lavonte David 13

 

I think these data might imply that around the league

 

Also point out that in 2018, Tre Edmunds stats for these were 23, which would put him up with Eric Kendricks (who had 19 last year), whom PFF grades as the best

 

I asked elsewhere in this thread, of others, I'll ask again: what was different in 2018 that gave Tre Better stats? 

Because I think most people would say he's a better player overall now than he was as a rookie.

 

 

 

Thanks for taking the time to compile the stats of the other players. I feel like none of those guys played a complete 17 game season but I could be wrong on that.

 

I excerpted Skurski's piece because I do think it's damning that he's 8th out of 11 in "Big Plays" on his own team.

 

Again, I'm not one of those calling Edmunds a bust. To me he's a disappointment because it seems like he should be better than he is. It seems like his best talent is using his movement skills and wingspan to effectively deny space in zone coverage. Wow.

 

That said he's not horrible and he's even better than average. Picking up the 5th year option was a slam dunk but the decision whether to sign him to a new deal is far from a certainty.

 

 

[That's No Moon]

On 2/25/2022 at 1:16 AM, JayBaller10 said:

Tremaine hasn’t been a “huge bust,” but he hasn’t been a difference maker either. His instincts are below average for a MLB, but his size and athleticism are elite. Put the two together and you get a slightly above average linebacker, though I couldn’t argue if someone else were to just call him “average.”
Despite being the defensive captain and getting everyone set on defense, his mental acuity and processing do him no favors. I don’t think he’ll ever be a defensive playmaker, a guy the opposing team absolutely fears and has to account for.

I'd be interested to see what would happen if he'd be turned loose chasing QBs.

[Brand J]

58 minutes ago, MPT said:

 

Then I would tell you that Jerry is very good at beating his man five yards down field of the QB. 

 

A high win rate that doesn't result in a high sack rate is a lot of wasted energy. It may force lesser QBs into bad decisions but a guy like Mahomes will just step into the giant holes created by the over pursuing rushers and either run for ten yards or take advantage of an unobstructed view of his receivers.

I don’t disagree, the post was in response to someone who said we never get pressure rushing four. The one thing the DL needs is a finisher. Doesn’t matter if you get the QB off his spot if he can still turn it into a positive play. 

22 minutes ago, That's No Moon said:

I'd be interested to see what would happen if he'd be turned loose chasing QBs.

I think he lacks the strength, physicality, and aggression needed to rush the passer. If he comes unimpeded to the QB he can get there quickly, but the same can be said for the majority of defenders in the NFL. If he has to beat a block, forget it. When your monster-sized MLB can be handled relatively easy by RBs and TEs, he’s not a threat to get to the QB.

[MasterStrategist]

10 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

I don’t disagree, the post was in response to someone who said we never get pressure rushing four. The one thing the DL needs is a finisher. Doesn’t matter if you get the QB off his spot if he can still turn it into a positive play. 

I think he lacks the strength, physicality, and aggression needed to rush the passer. If he comes unimpeded to the QB he can get there quickly, but the same can be said for the majority of defenders in the NFL. If he has to beat a block, forget it. When your monster-sized MLB can be handled relatively easy by RBs and TEs, he’s not a threat to get to the QB.

Again, Jerry running 5 yards past the qb is not pressure.  PFF/espn or whevever you grabbed that stat, is plain misleading and irrelevant.

 

Point is our front 4 is not physical or talented enough.  So we have: Hughes, Addison, Butler, Harry, and Efe all potentially ready to test the open market.  That was half our core from last year, not an abundantly talented group.

 

My previous point, Re: Edmunds, is that he and Milano would be much better with a stronger group in front of them.

[Brand J]

6 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Again, Jerry running 5 yards past the qb is not pressure.  PFF/espn or whevever you grabbed that stat, is plain misleading and irrelevant.

 

Point is our front 4 is not physical or talented enough.  So we have: Hughes, Addison, Butler, Harry, and Efe all potentially ready to test the open market.  That was half our core from last year, not an abundantly talented group.

 

My previous point, Re: Edmunds, is that he and Milano would be much better with a stronger group in front of them.

I’m not sure how they measure win rate, but I can bet a “win” is not when a player runs 5 yards past the QB, thereby taking himself out of the play 😂 But yes, the DL needs more talent.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

9 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

I’m not sure how they measure win rate, but I can bet a “win” is not when a player runs 5 yards past the QB, thereby taking himself out of the play 😂 But yes, the DL needs more talent.

Hughes is very good at making a QB move, I'm guessing that would be considered a win.

 

[MPT]

21 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

I don’t disagree, the post was in response to someone who said we never get pressure rushing four. The one thing the DL needs is a finisher. Doesn’t matter if you get the QB off his spot if he can still turn it into a positive play. 

I think he lacks the strength, physicality, and aggression needed to rush the passer. If he comes unimpeded to the QB he can get there quickly, but the same can be said for the majority of defenders in the NFL. If he has to beat a block, forget it. When your monster-sized MLB can be handled relatively easy by RBs and TEs, he’s not a threat to get to the QB.

 

Agree with all of that. There is a good sample size of him "being turned loose against QBs" (which I just assume means blitzing) and he has arguably the worst production of any blitzer in the NFL.

 

Edmunds' main responsibility is being a pass lane disruptor and coordinating the defense to that same end. He seems to have decent football IQ and he has elite physical traits so he's very good at that particular aspect of his job. Unfortunately he falls short in the other aspects of his job as a MLB. The Bills obviously know this. Their main objective on defense is limiting pass plays so they've clearly decided that his strengths outweigh his weaknesses in their scheme.

 

I don't believe the Bills could find a replacement for Edmunds in FA or the draft without adjusting their entire defensive scheme. I think he fits nicely in what they want to do on defense and they'll live with the downside. If that's the case, then the only way they can mitigate his shortcomings is by improving other areas, namely the DL.

[BillsShredder83]

The only huge bust in the Edmunds family is their dad. Have you seen the size of those kids?!

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

11 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I mean, Beane hasn't been trotting around OBD wearing horseblinders, he knows who is in line to be paid and when

I hope he hasn't been trotting around TBD.  He'll be using a Ouija board and Magic 8 Ball to determine players and salaries.

[Philly McButterpants]

I don't think Edmunds is a "bust."  He is however, just a "guy." He makes no impact plays and for $12MM/year and a #16 over all pick, I want more from him.  

 

He could be replaced with just about anyone and there would be no drop-off in the defense's performance.

 

Those of you who site:

 - But he's only 19

 - Two Pro Bowls

 - Captain of a top defense

 - blah, blah, blah...

 

That's all fine and dandy, but show me a game, a half, a quarter, a series where he dominated and I'll never speak ill of him again. (Because you can't). I can show you Milano and Klein doing that.  Not Edmunds.  Save the $$$ and move on.

Edited February 27, 2022 by Philly McButterpants

[Kelly2Reed]

   I wouldn’t worry too much since we’re trading him and star for the entire 4th round… or did I read that wrong?

[BarleyNY]

13 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Exactly, said this earlier in the thread that our front 4 has a big influence on the type of player that Edmunds (and Milano) can become.

 

For everyone claiming Edmunds needs to go, or we can easily replace him, what about our dline?  Newsflash, Edmunds and Milano (or whoever our LBs are) are playing behind a line that featured: Hughes, Oliver, Rousseau, Harry, Addison, Star, and a combination of Efe, Basham, AJ, and Butler.  

 

Do we honestly expect any of our LBs to perform well behind a group like that?  Milano even had a down season, from his prior work.  Certainly a correlation when we see both LBs not make splash plays, to me it points to Dline not performing as well.

 

Point is, get more physical/talented players in our front 4 and watch Edmunds/Milano be a top 5 combination.

The Bills have poured resources into our DL.  High draft pick after high draft pick and highly paid vet after highly paid vet.  How much better do you think it is going to get?  At some point you might want to ask yourself why it is always everyone else’s fault that Edmunds isn’t performing better.  Then ask yourself why he isn’t making anyone else around him better.

[Maine-iac]

1 minute ago, BarleyNY said:

The Bills have poured resources into our DL.  High draft pick after high draft pick and highly paid vet after highly paid vet.  How much better do you think it is going to get?  At some point you might want to ask yourself why it is always everyone else’s fault that Edmunds isn’t performing better.  Then ask yourself why he isn’t making anyone else around him better.

When you realize that it's a defensive unit (a group of 11 players) and that they perform as a team to do as the coaching staff intends then you realize that Edmunds is accomplishing the majority of what they are asking of him and the DL is not.  That is why the emphasis is on making the DL better and not getting rid of Edmunds.  In line with that thinking I'm in agreement that Edmunds will make more splash plays when QB's aren't standing for 3 to 5 seconds largely untouched and OL players handing off our DL players and going second level on running plays.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Exactly, said this earlier in the thread that our front 4 has a big influence on the type of player that Edmunds (and Milano) can become.

 

For everyone claiming Edmunds needs to go, or we can easily replace him, what about our dline?  Newsflash, Edmunds and Milano (or whoever our LBs are) are playing behind a line that featured: Hughes, Oliver, Rousseau, Harry, Addison, Star, and a combination of Efe, Basham, AJ, and Butler.  

 

Do we honestly expect any of our LBs to perform well behind a group like that?  Milano even had a down season, from his prior work.  Certainly a correlation when we see both LBs not make splash plays, to me it points to Dline not performing as well.

 

Point is, get more physical/talented players in our front 4 and watch Edmunds/Milano be a top 5 combination.

 

I agree with everything you say

 

And yet, we've had one of the most expensive DLs in the league the last several years - most expensive in 2019 and 2020 and 2nd most expensive in 2021

 

The ROI has been poor, but further - it begs the question, if our FO's judgement is to invest this massive expenditure with such poor RoI, what's the problem? 

 

Is it a scheme which is too complex and finicky where guys can't play free? 

Is it player personnel evaluation being poor on DL?  What?

 

 

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

The Bills have poured resources into our DL.  High draft pick after high draft pick and highly paid vet after highly paid vet.  How much better do you think it is going to get?  At some point you might want to ask yourself why it is always everyone else’s fault that Edmunds isn’t performing better.  Then ask yourself why he isn’t making anyone else around him better.

 

Again, these are very fair points, but as to the DL, it's pretty clear that it's not performing as well as 1) other DLs around the league 2) as well as expected - both McDermott and Beane have indicated as much. 

 

Independent of Edmunds, it's a fair expectation that we should be able to have what other teams have, a better performing DL, and to ask if scheme or personnel evaluation is at fault

[McBean]

On 2/24/2022 at 11:53 PM, Richard Noggin said:

https://walterfootball.com/draft2022_1.php

 

This pick and blurb oughta get a rise out of folks. Dontcha think? Discuss. 

 

Well said