Astro’s Pick 6 for March

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

My bold draft prediction is that Davis will make it past the Bills pick at 25. Effort concerns and a devalued role.

 

The 2014 Jordan Phillips vs Clemson video I posted above looks like a Jordan Davis 2021 highlight film.

 

These dudes are remarkably similar..........6'6" and 340.........very tall and play tall.

 

Phillips was also seen as a late first kinda' 3-4 NT prospect.......he just didn't play on a team LOADED with other starting quality NFL players like Davis.

 

And yeah he made plays in college but in the NFL if you don't have leverage you become a liability in run defense.    

 

The length and upper body strength that Phillips and Davis use to make plays in college doesn't translate as a double team drawing run-stuffer............Phillips is basically a gap shooting pass rusher in a frame that's become troublesome to keep healthy.

 

People expecting Jordan Davis to be Haloti Ngata or Vita Vea in run defense are probably going to be disappointed. 

[4BillsintheBurgh]

4 hours ago, Magox said:

I've said many times before that I never liked the idea of drafting a run plugging DT for your first round choice and that typically if you are going to draft a first round DT it should be someone who can penetrate and make lots of plays behind the line of scrimmage.

 

The more I have seen video of Jordan Davis the more my view on him particularly is evolving.  I can't think of anyone since Ndamukong Suh and Haloti Ngata a player dominate and stop the run as effectively as Jordan Davis.  He's not just an effective run plugger, he very likely will become an elite run stuffer, top 3 kind of guy.  He will always command a double team, he would most certainly free up Oliver to make even more plays behind the line of scrimmage.  

 

When you have someone who is that elite at stopping the run and who is that imposing of a figure, it alters the scheme.   He changes the whole dynamic on how a team has to attempt to attack your defense, not to mention he would be a handful in the pass rush.  Not so much that he himself would get lots of sacks or pressures, because most likely he wouldn't get all that many but what he would do is assist the team pass rush by helping close the pocket and freeing up other players, especially Linebackers.

 

I'm definitely warming up to Jordan Davis if we don't go WR which is what I'd like for the team to draft in the first round.

 

I think the interview will be a big thing for Davis. He might have the physical ability to be a Suh but it doesn't look like he is treating his body the right way to realize that potential. If Davis can convince beane he wants to work at being the best dt in the league then I say go for it. Getting some pass rush push along with run stopping at dt would add a nice dimension to,the defense. 

[Richard Noggin]

I like CB most of all in round one, as the value and need really seems to sync up there. If the defense can be more effectively multiple on the boundaries moving forward (switching up/blending man and zone coverages and press and off alignments), that will help against top flight QBs/passing attacks. We face a few of those next season, and for the foreseeable future in the AFC.

 

WR is of course intriguing as well. 

 

 

[Don Otreply]

13 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Nice

 

i can’t believe I actually read that whole thing

I think that if the commas and periods were deleted it would have taken it to a whole new level…, 😂

[BigAl2526]

15 hours ago, MarlinTheMagician said:

I have been reading that many think Devonte Wyatt is the better prospect vs. Davis, and he should be there.  I also believe we need to pick a fast corner within the first two picks, our secondary is not fast.  It is covered up by our scheme and the professionalism of the players we have.

I'm leaning that way too.  I think he has 3 down potential.  At this point, I don't think Davis does.  Overall, I love the research Kindig puts into his mock drafting.  It makes his prognostications a lot more credible.  He also gives me encouragement that the Bills could find some late round gems versus the mediocrity that abounds in a lot of full mock drafts.

[Magox]

22 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

 

 

I hear ya, but I didn't see that level of inconsistency from him for Georgia.  If anything, for me the main concern was his conditioning and can he become a disciplined pro and correct that and get in better shape.   He does play a bit upright and that would certainly have to improve but he did take on lots of double teams and he was a mammoth of a beast to move.    

 

Does he show lots of quickness and penetrating sort of DT play like Jordan Phillips?  Yeah, he does but that isn't a knock if anything it's an added feature.

 

You could end up being right that maybe he just becomes a decent player in the league and nothing more and I think you can always look at most players and find weaknesses to their game, but I think his floor is about as high as any DT in the draft and from my view at a very minimum he becomes a good run stuffing DT who can make some plays behind the line of scrimmage and at best become a dominant run stopper.

[Buffalo716]

22 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The 2014 Jordan Phillips vs Clemson video I posted above looks like a Jordan Davis 2021 highlight film.

 

These dudes are remarkably similar..........6'6" and 340.........very tall and play tall.

 

Phillips was also seen as a late first kinda' 3-4 NT prospect.......he just didn't play on a team LOADED with other starting quality NFL players like Davis.

 

And yeah he made plays in college but in the NFL if you don't have leverage you become a liability in run defense.    

 

The length and upper body strength that Phillips and Davis use to make plays in college doesn't translate as a double team drawing run-stuffer............Phillips is basically a gap shooting pass rusher in a frame that's become troublesome to keep healthy.

 

People expecting Jordan Davis to be Haloti Ngata or Vita Vea in run defense are probably going to be disappointed. 

He's a second round pick ideally

[MarlinTheMagician]

Instead of Davis I would like a fast, talented CB in Rd. 1, or trade down and get that CB early in RD. 2, adding a pick that helps the offense.  Get Travis Jones or Phidarian Mathis in the second.  Double team eaters.  

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

He's a second round pick ideally

 

I agree........and that's where Phillips went.........and he would have been worth it as an impactful pass rushing DT3T had he reached his potential..........but he wasn't a natural DT1T or Nose........he just looked like he could dominate at the LOS because college OL were ill-prepared to handle his length and upper body strength.   

 

We've literally had a couple of these top heavy 340# DT's in Jordan Phillips and Vernon Butler and they have proven to be far from dominant at controlling the LOS but the assumption by some is that Davis is going to be entirely different.

[frogger]

Davis vs Wyatt,  Davis is a huge run stopping creature, he is a game changer in the run game, but offers little more than a hand in the face as a rusher, he is a 2 down DT, with Buffalo's rotation it would work.  Wyatt is more three tech, he could be a 1 tech, but he would be similar to lining Oliver in that position, who did okay but it's not his best spot.  But you never have to take Wyatt off the field and he chases players down the field.

Jones in the 2nd is a water down blend of the two, he has all the abilities to be a quality starter.  

But, with the way Harrison and Oliver ended the year and assuming we can re-sign Phillips I'd rather bring in a FA. Two free agents that I think could be reasonable and could fill these needs are Fatukasi and Austin Johnson.

 

I firmly believe that 1st round, if we keep the pick, will be a corner...can't pay White, Poyer, Hyde, Johnson, Neal AND a starting Free agent CB or Wallace...not to mention we don't have an update on White's health yet.

 

I'm a fan of both of the corner in Washington,  Booth and McCreary in the first and double dip in the 4th or late third and get Marcus Jones, fast, twitchy and a great returner...he also isn't tall (why he falls)..I think Tyreek Hill wins on speed and leverage, not saying he is a Hill stopper, but as an athlete, no one might come closer than Jones.  

[BobbyC81]

On 2/24/2022 at 6:42 PM, Whites Bay said:

When the Bills chose Whitner over Ngata, I very nearly had a stroke.  It set the franchise back 10 years.

 

Okay, there were a LOT of things that set the franchise back 10 years when that happened, but you have to admit that missing Ngata on that draft was one of them.

But…but…they then traded back into the first and picked the legendary John McCargo!

[Magox]

He looked pretty darn good against double teams and top competition.  Even with the double teams he wasn’t getting pushed back.   
 

Also his bull rush is effective in helping collapse the pocket.   

 

 

 

I think the bigger risk for Davis is he willing to do what it takes to continue to improve?  Is he willing to work at his craft and get in great shape? 
 

Interviews will be hugely important to determine if he is a 1st or 2nd round pick.

[muppy]

In case folks haven't read this Im bumping it. a ton of great info here

[Gugny]

On 2/24/2022 at 10:45 AM, GoBills808 said:

Nice

 

i can’t believe I actually read that whole thing

 

With English being your second language, I can't believe it either!

[glazeduck]

Since basically all of his picks were upended by free agency, here's his April version: https://buffalofambase.com/2022/04/12/astros-pick-six-april-2022-edition-bills/

[4merper4mer]

The safety he had in the 5th was just touted on GMF as a possible late 1st.  So 5th seems like a big stretch.

[NewEra]

12 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

The safety he had in the 5th was just touted on GMF as a possible late 1st.  So 5th seems like a big stretch.

Big time.  He might last til rd 3….but not til our pick in rd 3.  Lots of nice safeties in this draft.  

[glazeduck]

Velus Jones in the 3rd would be an extremely disappointing pick as well. Guy's not a WR...

[Turbo44]

I'd throw the option of a punter in there in Rd 6 or 7 - UGA or Penn State guy.  Beane spend a 6th on Bass, I could see him spending one on another kicker

[Sierra Foothills]

Is there any present-day equivalent to the guys who used to do the Youtube channel DraftBreakDown?

 

It seems like maybe some of their people moved on to FFAstronauts...

 

As BADOL posted upstream with the Jordan Phillips vs Clemson video you would be able to watch every snap by a player in a game, which is infinitely more valuable than watching a highlight video.

 

The videos would visually highlight the subject player or players before each snap and then let the play roll.

 

Anyone know of any football geeks that do this kind of video?

Edited April 12, 2022 by Sierra Foothills