Daniel Jeremiah Mock Draft 2.0 - Bills take Treylon Burks: 3.0 - Bills take Breece Hall

[par73]

I think CB will be the #1 priority. If a receiver slips down that they really like, I can see them going that way. RB in the 1st would be a shocker.

[CDogg20]

2 hours ago, FLFan said:

Breece Hall would be a terrible choice.  A “fire Beane moment”. Wrong position, wrong player, wrong era. 

That would be a fire Beane moment? He brought us our franchise qb, a league leader at wr. A tight end finally worth something and a hof pass rusher. Oh and Ed Oliver who’s becoming an absolute monster. But yeah drafting a 1st round running back…fire him. 
 

 

How quickly some of us forget how miserable we were for 20 years. 

[Einstein's Dog]

38 minutes ago, mrags said:

That’s completely understandable by almost everyone here. The bigger argument is…. Take the 4-5th best CB, 4-5th best WR, 2-4th best OL, or the 1-2nd best RB. Once you hit a drop off in any of those positions you might as well just wait another round or 2. Maximize your pick where you have it. 

The FO would have tiers, and I'm thinking there are about 5-6 WRs in the top tier.  The top tier should have a much higher rate of being a stud.  A stud WR is a much more valuable asset than a stud RB financially.   Just look at the figures of the top 5 FA WRs vs the top 5 FA RBs - it's not close.

 

Also missing and getting an average WR fills the Sanders spot of $6M for 3-4 years while hitting and getting a good RB is only replacing Singletary's meager salary.

 

If the player is really good you would want to renegotiate their contract a year before they hit FA to keep them.  It's a bad idea to give an RB a second contract early (see Dallas/Zeke or Car/McCaffery)

 

I agree you want maximum value out of your picks.  

 

[JROC INTEL]

Would anyone be against going CB first two picks? Load up? I don’t know if this has been considered yet. Thoughts?

[mrags]

5 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

The FO would have tiers, and I'm thinking there are about 5-6 WRs in the top tier.  The top tier should have a much higher rate of being a stud.  A stud WR is a much more valuable asset than a stud RB financially.   Just look at the figures of the top 5 FA WRs vs the top 5 FA RBs - it's not close.

 

Also missing and getting an average WR fills the Sanders spot of $6M for 3-4 years while hitting and getting a good RB is only replacing Singletary's meager salary.

 

If the player is really good you would want to renegotiate their contract a year before they hit FA to keep them.  It's a bad idea to give an RB a second contract early (see Dallas/Zeke or Car/McCaffery)

 

I agree you want maximum value out of your picks.  

 

This is exactly one of my arguments for getting a RB in the draft. Even more so with the 1st round. You have the ability to sign to the 5th year option. This year Barkley is on the 5th year option and only costing about 7m. Here’s a breakdown of 5th year options prices for each position currently. 
 

Fifth-year option salaries for players who achieve playtime criterion

Quarterback | $22.4 million

Running Back | $5.7 million

Wide Receiver | $13.4 million

Tight End | $6.9 million

Offensive Lineman | $13.2 million

Defensive End | $12.4 million

Defensive Tackle | $10.8 million

Linebacker | $11.7 million

Cornerback | $12.0 million

Safety | $7.9 million

Special Teams | $3.9 million

 

it actually makes sense to draft a 1st round RB because the potential for that player being the best at their position in the draft is greater than almost any other position. And with RBs you have the chances of a rookie coming in right away and being a difference maker is greater than almost any position as they have the smallest learning curve. This way you get the most out of the position in the first 4-5 years and can rinse/repeat. It’s much easier to replace that RB than it is to replace a OL or WR or CB. Which is why, when you get a true starter at one of those positions, you resign them. Like White, Dawkins, Diggs, Davis,etc. One of my bigger issues with Singletary at this point. Unless he’s signing a new contract for league minimum, does anyone really want to pay him? I mean it’s not my money, but if he wants a raise he can go as far as I’m concerned. Sucks that Moss hasn’t done anything to relieve the stress of losing Singletary. He’s been even more unforgettable. 

8 minutes ago, JROC INTEL said:

Would anyone be against going CB first two picks? Load up? I don’t know if this has been considered yet. Thoughts?

Not a terrible idea. Because you have holes and the position is deep. You could possibly walk away with 2 starters. Problem is, what happens when White comes back? Someone that has ability to start is sitting on the bench picking their nose. Probably better to try and fill starting spots at multiple positions. 

[Motor26]

7 minutes ago, mrags said:

This is exactly one of my arguments for getting a RB in the draft. Even more so with the 1st round. You have the ability to sign to the 5th year option. This year Barkley is on the 5th year option and only costing about 7m. Here’s a breakdown of 5th year options prices for each position currently. 
 

Fifth-year option salaries for players who achieve playtime criterion

Quarterback | $22.4 million

Running Back | $5.7 million

Wide Receiver | $13.4 million

Tight End | $6.9 million

Offensive Lineman | $13.2 million

Defensive End | $12.4 million

Defensive Tackle | $10.8 million

Linebacker | $11.7 million

Cornerback | $12.0 million

Safety | $7.9 million

Special Teams | $3.9 million

 

it actually makes sense to draft a 1st round RB because the potential for that player being the best at their position in the draft is greater than almost any other position. And with RBs you have the chances of a rookie coming in right away and being a difference maker is greater than almost any position as they have the smallest learning curve. This way you get the most out of the position in the first 4-5 years and can rinse/repeat. It’s much easier to replace that RB than it is to replace a OL or WR or CB. Which is why, when you get a true starter at one of those positions, you resign them. Like White, Dawkins, Diggs, Davis,etc. One of my bigger issues with Singletary at this point. Unless he’s signing a new contract for league minimum, does anyone really want to pay him? I mean it’s not my money, but if he wants a raise he can go as far as I’m concerned. Sucks that Moss hasn’t done anything to relieve the stress of losing Singletary. He’s been even more unforgettable. 

Not a terrible idea. Because you have holes and the position is deep. You could possibly walk away with 2 starters. Problem is, what happens when White comes back? Someone that has ability to start is sitting on the bench picking their nose. Probably better to try and fill starting spots at multiple positions. 

The top 5 rushing leaders last season, 4 of the 5 were drafted in the 2nd round. Because most teams go with premium positions in the 1st round.

[YoloinOhio]

22 minutes ago, JROC INTEL said:

Would anyone be against going CB first two picks? Load up? I don’t know if this has been considered yet. Thoughts?

No thanks - one is enough

[mrags]

2 minutes ago, Motor26 said:

The top 5 rushing leaders last season, 4 of the 5 were drafted in the 2nd round. Because most teams go with premium positions in the 1st round.

I bet the Colts are wishing they took Taylor in the 1st round so they could get him with the 5th year option instead of having the decision of letting him walk or signing him to a contract worth more than $16m a year like McCaffrey is going to make. Or Elliot or Kamara making more than $15m. 

[Motor26]

17 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

No thanks - one is enough

I think they should probably take two corners in the draft, but maybe more like round 1 and round 5.

17 minutes ago, mrags said:

I bet the Colts are wishing they took Taylor in the 1st round so they could get him with the 5th year option instead of having the decision of letting him walk or signing him to a contract worth more than $16m a year like McCaffrey is going to make. Or Elliot or Kamara making more than $15m. 

So what would happen after the 5th year option for Taylor if they had it? Would they just let him walk after 5 years and then draft a new RB? Because if you don’t want to pay the running back once his contract is up, why waste high draft assets on him instead of a corner/Edge/OT/WR you would plan on resigning? 

[mrags]

16 minutes ago, Motor26 said:

I think they should probably take two corners in the draft, but maybe more like round 1 and round 5.

So what would happen after the 5th year option for Taylor if they had it? Would they just let him walk after 5 years and then draft a new RB? Because if you don’t want to pay the running back once his contract is up, why waste high draft assets on him instead of a corner/Edge/OT/WR you would plan on resigning? 

Because you get that one extra year out of him at a reasonable price. Hell, you could even franchise tag him for a reasonable price for a year or 2. 
 

RBs get up to speed in the nfl quicker than almost any position. Therefore you are getting them at their primes almost on their rookie deals. The life expectancy of a RB in the league is lowest of every position. More of a reason to take a young rookie and ride him out. Rinse/repeat. 

[Motor26]

10 minutes ago, mrags said:

Because you get that one extra year out of him at a reasonable price. Hell, you could even franchise tag him for a reasonable price for a year or 2. 
 

RBs get up to speed in the nfl quicker than almost any position. Therefore you are getting them at their primes almost on their rookie deals. The life expectancy of a RB in the league is lowest of every position. More of a reason to take a young rookie and ride him out. Rinse/repeat. 

The life expectancy is the lowest of every position, you just keep giving more reasons to not select a running back in the first round. 

[mrags]

15 minutes ago, Motor26 said:

The life expectancy is the lowest of every position, you just keep giving more reasons to not select a running back in the first round. 

That’s exactly why you draft one in the first round. If you take a WR or OL it could take a few years for them to become accustomed to the NFL. Someone like Gabe Davis who takes 2-3 years to breakout. Still having the ability to sign him to his 2nd contract on a reasonable deal. Where as the RB position usually gets put in right away and produces right away (the good ones anyway). And you ride out their good years while you can get them. And you get an extra year with a 5th year option. Everyone understands and agrees that you almost never sign a RB to their 2nd contract. Which is why you take the best one you can get from the start. Or else you have someone like Singletary or Moss underperforming for your offense until you rinse/repeat. 

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, mrags said:

I bet the Colts are wishing they took Taylor in the 1st round so they could get him with the 5th year option instead of having the decision of letting him walk or signing him to a contract worth more than $16m a year like McCaffrey is going to make. Or Elliot or Kamara making more than $15m. 

Everyone in the nfl knows those contracts are huge mistakes.  Each and every one.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see the rb contracts decrease in the coming years.  Chubb, 12M, Henry 12M, cook 12M aaron jones 12M.  All better than zeke.  All make 3M less than him even though they signed a year or two or three after him.  Meanwhile the highest paid players at other positions continue to soar

[mrags]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

Everyone in the nfl knows those contracts are huge mistakes.  Each and every one.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see the rb contracts decrease in the coming years.  Chubb, 12M, Henry 12M, cook 12M aaron jones 12M.  All better than zeke.  All make 3M less than him even though they signed a year or two or three after him.  Meanwhile the highest paid players at other positions continue to soar

Highest paid players at positions of skill are sky high. Inflation brought us that. Inflation and greed. I don’t expect ANY pay scale to decrease for any single position in the league moving forward at this point. There may be less high paid players at the RB position only because teams can’t find stud RBs or go with RBBC because they can’t afford to sign high profile RBs along with their 40m+ QBs, 20m+ WRs, 20m+ DEs. But I’d imagine if you asked the Colts, Saints, Titans how they feel about their RBs they wouldn’t  trade them for some scrub that needs a backup because they can’t do it all. 
 

I think you could use the same analogy with how McDermott and Beane have missed on the DL since they got here. They’ve had to overpay for average at best vets at the DL, draft multiple 1st and 2nd round picks. And still had to use a rotation because they couldn’t get the production out of their intended starters. They ended up spending the same amount on Butler, Addison, Hughes as it took to sign a true pass rusher like Miller. I guarantee, now that we have someone like Von, we don’t see nearly as much of a rotation. 

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, JROC INTEL said:

Would anyone be against going CB first two picks? Load up? I don’t know if this has been considered yet. Thoughts?

Booth @ 25

Mccreary or Gordon @ 57

Not a horrible idea doubling down on finding Tre's partner. Then find a speed receiver at 89.....

[mrags]

14 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Booth @ 25

Mccreary or Gordon @ 57

Not a horrible idea doubling down on finding Tre's partner. Then find a speed receiver at 89.....

It’s not a terrible idea if you don’t think Tre will be back to normal for a while. But if he’s back to normal sooner than later, you are wasting a pick and sitting someone the majority of the time when they should be on the field. A 2nd round pick should see considerable time throughout the season. Could probably take a OL or WR at 2-3 and still get your stud CB in the first and be better off. 

[Coach Tuesday]

15 hours ago, H2o said:

Let's not forget the Bills were REALLY high on Travis Etienne last year and he very well could have been the pick if Jax didn't take him before us. He was clearly looking for a homerun hitter out of the backfield. Breece Hall has 3 years' worth of REALLY good college production. He can also catch the ball out of the backfield. He could be that RB threat they are looking for this year. I would not be surprised if Beane did this, especially if Tre is doing well in his rehab and Bates is retained. 

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/breece-hall-1.html

 

 

TBH not seeing a ton of explosiveness and those are his HIGHLIGHTS.  That is not a first round athlete imo.

[FLFan]

10 hours ago, CDogg20 said:

That would be a fire Beane moment? He brought us our franchise qb, a league leader at wr. A tight end finally worth something and a hof pass rusher. Oh and Ed Oliver who’s becoming an absolute monster. But yeah drafting a 1st round running back…fire him. 
 

 

How quickly some of us forget how miserable we were for 20 years. 

I was obviously using a little hyperbole there.  Chill.

[Solomon Grundy]

2 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

TBH not seeing a ton of explosiveness and those are his HIGHLIGHTS.  That is not a first round athlete imo.

Here’s a nice breakdown for you 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Joe B also has the Bills taking Hall.