Spotrac spitballs C. Kirk & C. Williams to Bills

[BuffaloRebound]

Chemistry between a QB and WR is hugely important.  Seems like that already exists between Josh and Kirk off the field at least.  Ideally we sign Kirk and draft a CB in the 1st round.  

[Alphadawg7]

17 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm not joining in to argue with you, because I don't really know much about Kirk on the field or in terms of his personality, and you're way more on top of these things than I am.   However, there is one point I raise from time to time, and it's relevant here.

 

There are guys who are mature enough to recognize that they really don't need to squeeze every last dollar out of their NFL careers, and those guys may very well sign in the right situation for a good deal less than the market.   Not saying Kirk is one of those, but it's an important in these discussions.   

 

If a guy can make $40 million in his NFL career, that's more money than he needs to be set for life.  Would he prefer $60 million?   Sure, but in that range, it's all play money.   

 

$40 million over a career is $20 million in the bank after taxes and personal living expenses while he's playing (at maybe $300-$400,000 a year).   $20 million the bank is easily $600,000 a year for live, with inflation adjustments.   That's in the top .5% of wealth in the country. 

 

Now, some guys want every dollar, but some get to the point where they know they have enough, and for them, other circumstances become more important.   

 

So, not knowing anything about Kirk, I still wouldn't dismiss out of hand the idea that the guy might want to play in Buffalo.  I said this in the Amari Cooper thread:  OBJ was thrilled to go to a team with a QB who could throw and with an entrenched #1 receiver.   I'd expect most free agent receivers will have Buffalo on their lists, for some Buffalo will be at or near the top of their lists, because who wouldn't want to line up opposite Stephon Diggs with Josh Allen throwing the ball?

 

Seasoned veterans who have already got paid like Cooper, OBJ, etc are not in the same situation as Kirk.  Kirk has only made about $6M over 4 years, which means he is banking maybe half that at best.  So he has made an average of like $400,000 to $500,000 a year so far over 4 years in his actual bank account.  And that is before he spends any of that money to live.  

 

So we are talking about a 5th year WR, who has been behind legends like Fitz and Hopkins his whole career.  He finally got a chance to be a focal point this year after Hopkins went down and he had his best year yet in a contract year.  

 

This may be his ONLY shot to get a big payday and set him and his family up for life.  The market is reportedly red hot for him, so lets assume that is true.  Why would he turn down say a 4 year deal at $12M per year for $48M to sign say in Buffalo for just over half that (the person I replied to suggested sign here for $7M per year)?  I mean he could get hurt and derail his career, he may not get another shot at setting himself up for life after football.

 

Now add in this complication...in Buffalo, statistically he is a role player, not a feature player.  Even with our #2 WR hurt most the year in 2020, Allen put up an MVP level year and we still only had 1 WR go over 1000 yards.  In 2021, all the numbers were significantly down individually with everyone healthy because we spread the ball around so much, and again only had 1 guy over 1000 and no one else even close despite a prolific passing offense.  

 

So if Kirk did sign here for a lot less money, barring injuries, he will likely continue to be a 500-700 yard guy with the way we spread the ball around as we have too many mouths to feed, plus Allens running also impacts that.  So when he is 28 or 29 and again a FA, he will be fielding a resume of a role player statistically and likely looking at another mid tier role player size contract. 

 

However if he was to sign somewhere as a focal point now, if he continues to improve and excel, then in 3 or 4 years he can sign a big extension or another big FA contract.

 

So signing here isn't just taking less money now, its potentially meaning taking less money on his next and last shot at a big deal too before he turns 30.  To expect someone to give up that much earning potential between now and that contract is unreasonable expectation in my book, especially for a kid who has made peanuts in NFL standards thus far in his career.

 

So unless the market is shockingly low on Kirk, which all reports greatly suggest the opposite, I can't see him foregoing all that money now and potentially again on his next deal.  We aren't the only contender in town, he can still sign with another good team with a good QB and get still paid too.  Its not like we represent his only shot at a SB.  

[Magox]

It is such a great draft for WR's, I'm hoping the Bills pick up two quality players at that position.  With that said, I don't believe that the Bills will pay $12M a year for him when we are presumably about to extend Diggs for $20M+.   Maybe if they can get him to lower the price tag to around $10-$11M they pull the trigger and look to plug other needs in the draft but I do think it's unlikely.

 

With that said, Kirk instantly makes this a better offense and since we are on the cusp of winning it all, this would be a positional acquisition that most certainly keep this offense humming for the foreseeable future.  I'd be ok with it if they thought they could make it work.

[BuffaloRebound]

11 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Seasoned veterans who have already got paid like Cooper, OBJ, etc are not in the same situation as Kirk.  Kirk has only made about $6M over 4 years, which means he is banking maybe half that at best.  So he has made an average of like $400,000 to $500,000 a year so far over 4 years in his actual bank account.  And that is before he spends any of that money to live.  

 

So we are talking about a 5th year WR, who has been behind legends like Fitz and Hopkins his whole career.  He finally got a chance to be a focal point this year after Hopkins went down and he had his best year yet in a contract year.  

 

This may be his ONLY shot to get a big payday and set him and his family up for life.  The market is reportedly red hot for him, so lets assume that is true.  Why would he turn down say a 4 year deal at $12M per year for $48M to sign say in Buffalo for just over half that (the person I replied to suggested sign here for $7M per year)?  I mean he could get hurt and derail his career, he may not get another shot at setting himself up for life after football.

 

Now add in this complication...in Buffalo, statistically he is a role player, not a feature player.  Even with our #2 WR hurt most the year in 2020, Allen put up an MVP level year and we still only had 1 WR go over 1000 yards.  In 2021, all the numbers were significantly down individually with everyone healthy because we spread the ball around so much, and again only had 1 guy over 1000 and no one else even close despite a prolific passing offense.  

 

So if Kirk did sign here for a lot less money, barring injuries, he will likely continue to be a 500-700 yard guy with the way we spread the ball around as we have too many mouths to feed, plus Allens running also impacts that.  So when he is 28 or 29 and again a FA, he will be fielding a resume of a role player statistically and likely looking at another mid tier role player size contract. 

 

However if he was to sign somewhere as a focal point now, if he continues to improve and excel, then in 3 or 4 years he can sign a big extension or another big FA contract.

 

So signing here isn't just taking less money now, its potentially meaning taking less money on his next and last shot at a big deal too before he turns 30.  To expect someone to give up that much earning potential between now and that contract is unreasonable expectation in my book, especially for a kid who has made peanuts in NFL standards thus far in his career.

 

So unless the market is shockingly low on Kirk, which all reports greatly suggest the opposite, I can't see him foregoing all that money now and potentially again on his next deal.  We aren't the only contender in town, he can still sign with another good team with a good QB and get still paid too.  Its not like we represent his only shot at a SB.  

Agreed, but if the guaranteed money is similar I could see him forgoing a little bit to be in a better situation.  Josh ain’t going anywhere for a long time. Who’s to say he signs for more money with say the Jets and after 2 years Wilson and Saleh are gone and a new guy cleans house.  Most guaranteed money is only for the first 2 years of a contract.  He’s much more likely to earn his non-guaranteed portion of his contract in a better situation like the Bills currently are.  

[RyanC883]

getting Kirk really frees up the Bills to draft an OL, or go after another WR or DE in free agency.  

 

I know nothing about Connor Williams, but if he has the struggles other posters here state, I'd rather draft a guy at 25.  

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Agreed, but if the guaranteed money is similar I could see him forgoing a little bit to be in a better situation.  Josh ain’t going anywhere for a long time. Who’s to say he signs for more money with say the Jets and after 2 years Wilson and Saleh are gone and a new guy cleans house.  Most guaranteed money is only for the first 2 years of a contract.  He’s much more likely to earn his non-guaranteed portion of his contract in a better situation like the Bills currently are.  

 

I don't disagree that if the money isn't a big discrepancy then absolutely we would be in play, and I would love to see him here.  Not unreasonable to forego a little bit to play in a big time offense with an elite QB like Josh.  

 

I think where I differ with some people here is that I am just of the opinion that I think the discrepancy to what the Bills can or will offer is going to bigger than people think compared to what is on his table.  I just believe the market for him will be robust and competitive, so not sure Beane can afford to be as competitive.  I will say this though, Beane is, and always will be, seen as a wizard in my eyes.  So I won't put it past him to find a creative way to get a guy he covets.  But, even so, I just think this particular player seems like a long shot to land here.

 

I would be happy to be wrong about that and see him somehow land here, just today it seems unrealistic given the reasons I stated.  

 

I think with a deep WR draft, Beane more likely sounds an affordable vet and then drafts 1 or 2 guys this year.  I think if Beane was to make any kind of splash move in FA or in Trade ahead of the draft, odds are higher it would be at RB, CB, DT, or DE than say WR.  Then again, you never know with Beane, just my personal opinion of what I think he will do this year.  

[RyanC883]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm not joining in to argue with you, because I don't really know much about Kirk on the field or in terms of his personality, and you're way more on top of these things than I am.   However, there is one point I raise from time to time, and it's relevant here.

 

There are guys who are mature enough to recognize that they really don't need to squeeze every last dollar out of their NFL careers, and those guys may very well sign in the right situation for a good deal less than the market.   Not saying Kirk is one of those, but it's an important in these discussions.   

 

If a guy can make $40 million in his NFL career, that's more money than he needs to be set for life.  Would he prefer $60 million?   Sure, but in that range, it's all play money.   

 

$40 million over a career is $20 million in the bank after taxes and personal living expenses while he's playing (at maybe $300-$400,000 a year).   $20 million the bank is easily $600,000 a year for live, with inflation adjustments.   That's in the top .5% of wealth in the country. 

 

Now, some guys want every dollar, but some get to the point where they know they have enough, and for them, other circumstances become more important.   

 

So, not knowing anything about Kirk, I still wouldn't dismiss out of hand the idea that the guy might want to play in Buffalo.  I said this in the Amari Cooper thread:  OBJ was thrilled to go to a team with a QB who could throw and with an entrenched #1 receiver.   I'd expect most free agent receivers will have Buffalo on their lists, for some Buffalo will be at or near the top of their lists, because who wouldn't want to line up opposite Stephon Diggs with Josh Allen throwing the ball?

 

I totally agree with this.  It is about the money, but at some point it's not.  I think everyone on the board can relate to that.  Say you have a job you like, you are well paid, and have great colleagues.  Would you necessarily leave for more money but perhaps a more toxic environment.  We have an A+ environment here.  Enjoying your playing career/job also has a price to it.   I'm not saying you shouldn't turn down more money, or make as much as you can, but that there is sometimes (but not always) a price to doing so in terms of satisfaction.  

 

Long story short: it's not necessary we are the highest bidder to get Kirk.  We need to be competitive and offer the intangibles. 

[Charles Romes]

Kirk had only decent 4.47 speed out of the combine and is smallish, under 6’. He still went high in the draft second round. Anyone know why he went so high?  It seems there is a lot of speed at WR available in the draft this year, so why not draft a WR much faster than Kirk. 

[BrooklynBills]

52 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I think then you will be surprised to see the market for Kirk.  He certainly wont be a "3rd tier" FA WR, and will widely seen as one of the better FA WR's on the market this year. 

 

Davante Adams

Chris Godwin

 

Amari Cooper

Allen Robinson

Mike Williams

 

OBJ

Kirk

Gallup

DJ Chark

 

He's either top of tier 3 or bottom of tier 2. Not to mention that he's got at least 4 guys in direct competition with him at his own price point.

 

$7 mil/yr is obviously way too low. But I think 4yr/40-45 mil with like 30%-40% gtd in the 1st 2 years is where I'd be willing to go. Then you essentially decide between Davis and Kirk after 2 years.

[BADOLBILZ]

9 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

Kirk had only decent 4.47 speed out of the combine and is smallish, under 6’. He still went high in the draft second round. Anyone know why he went so high?  It seems there is a lot of speed at WR available in the draft this year, so why not draft a WR much faster than Kirk. 

 

Kirk was a phenomenal freshman........seemed destined to be a 1st rounder right off the bat........and though he leveled off as a sophomore and junior he was a big time producer at a big school..........and the 3 years prior had been poor WR drafts so the league was STARVING for WR's.

 

A lot has changed since then.........2018 started a run of WR drafts that has flooded the league with talent........though at the time teams were still stinging from prior let downs and that's how guys like AJ Brown and Metcalf slipped, IMO.

[Patrick Duffy]

I'd be pretty damn excited if Bills managed to sign Kirk.....

 

I think this off-season will bring more excitement and activity than last

[BADOLBILZ]

3 minutes ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

I'd be pretty damn excited if Bills managed to sign Kirk.....

 

I think this off-season will bring more excitement and activity than last

 

 

I hope so.........Matt Haack was the only free agent they signed to a multi-year deal and they basically addressed NONE of the things that they said were needs after the AFCCG loss in KC.

 

Manny Sanders was the big signing and it was hard to get too excited about getting slower at WR.

 

Breida and Lamp were fun 1 year lottery tickets but neither had much production in their past.

[Shaw66]

25 minutes ago, BrooklynBills said:

 

Davante Adams

Chris Godwin

 

Amari Cooper

Allen Robinson

Mike Williams

 

OBJ

Kirk

Gallup

DJ Chark

 

He's either top of tier 3 or bottom of tier 2. Not to mention that he's got at least 4 guys in direct competition with him at his own price point.

 

$7 mil/yr is obviously way too low. But I think 4yr/40-45 mil with like 30%-40% gtd in the 1st 2 years is where I'd be willing to go. Then you essentially decide between Davis and Kirk after 2 years.

Everyone keeps saying the draft is deep in receivers.  If that's true, it's hard to imagine all these free agents getting big deals.  Maybe Kirk will be available for less than we think.  

[JohnBonhamRocks]

Give Beasley’s money to Kirk and watch this offense explode.

[Patrick Duffy]

21 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I hope so.........Matt Haack was the only free agent they signed to a multi-year deal and they basically addressed NONE of the things that they said were needs after the AFCCG loss in KC.

 

Manny Sanders was the big signing and it was hard to get too excited about getting slower at WR.

 

Breida and Lamp were fun 1 year lottery tickets but neither had much production in their past.

Yeah Haack was very disappointing. Sanders started off fairly decent but noticeably dropped off as went on....

 

I wasn't expecting much from Breida anyway, think he had 1 game where he played decent if I remember correctly...

 

Anyway, with having they're cap situation is a little better than last off-season along with knowing this team is merely a ***** hair away from a Championship I expect we will see some exciting action in the upcoming months. I'd be surprised if it's not more done than last off-season

[Alphadawg7]

58 minutes ago, BrooklynBills said:

 

Davante Adams

Chris Godwin

 

Amari Cooper

Allen Robinson

Mike Williams

 

OBJ

Kirk

Gallup

DJ Chark

 

He's either top of tier 3 or bottom of tier 2. Not to mention that he's got at least 4 guys in direct competition with him at his own price point.

 

$7 mil/yr is obviously way too low. But I think 4yr/40-45 mil with like 30%-40% gtd in the 1st 2 years is where I'd be willing to go. Then you essentially decide between Davis and Kirk after 2 years.

 

No disrespect, but I don't think you are thinking about this correctly in terms of free agency.

 

Kirk is going to be more in demand than Cooper, Robinson and Williams.  These three are going to be more expensive despite being highly inconsistent as receivers most their careers even while playing mostly in productive offenses with good or very good QB's (especially Cooper and Williams).  Less teams can afford what they will be looking for, and there is a legit argument if they are even worth what they are going to be seeking given how inconsistent they have been.

 

Who is hot in Free Agency isnt always about who is perceived to be the most talented or accomplished.  Adams for example won't have as many suitors because he is too expensive, less people can afford him even though he is night and day better than anyone on this list and arguably the best in the NFL.  Godwin is coming off a major injury too and while he likely is back in 2022 barring setbacks, there is no guarantee he comes back and just gets back to his old form early, might take time to get there.  How many teams can afford what he will be seeking, and how many are willing to give it to him before he gets back on the field is a legit question with him.

 

Kirk will be a priority or top tier target for a lot of teams because he is perceived to be young and on the rise breaking out, meaning they can get a guy they believe is capable of putting up numbers like some of these other guys in a featured role while paying him considerably less money than several of those other guys will get.  

 

So if you want to list these guys in tiers based on their resumes, sure, you can make a case for your list.  But if you want to grade as a free agency tier, Kirk will likely have the biggest market for his services than anyone on that list making him a higher tier free agent.  

Edited March 7, 2022 by Alphadawg7

[BADOLBILZ]

1 minute ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

Yeah Haack was very disappointing. Sanders started off fairly decent but noticeably dropped off as went on....

 

I wasn't expecting much from Breida anyway, think he had 1 game where he played decent if I remember correctly...

 

Anyway, with having they're cap situation is a little better than last off-season along with knowing this team is merely a ***** hair away from a Championship I expect we will see some exciting action in the upcoming months. I'd be surprised if it's not more done than last off-season

 

 

We need a fingers crossed🤞 response emoji.  

[BrooklynBills]

23 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No disrespect, but I don't think you are thinking about this correctly in terms of free agency.

 

Kirk is going to be more in demand than Cooper, Robinson and Williams.  These three are going to be more expensive despite being highly inconsistent as receivers most their careers even while playing mostly in productive offenses with good or very good QB's (especially Cooper and Williams).  Less teams can afford what they will be looking for, and there is a legit argument if they are even worth what they are going to be seeking given how inconsistent they have been.

 

Who is hot in Free Agency isnt always about who is perceived to be the most talented or accomplished.  Adams for example won't have as many suitors because he is too expensive, less people can afford him even though he is night and day better than anyone on this list and arguably the best in the NFL.  Godwin is coming off a major injury too and while he likely is back in 2022 barring setbacks, there is no guarantee he comes back and just gets back to his old form early, might take time to get there.  How many teams can afford what he will be seeking, and how many are willing to give it to him before he gets back on the field is a legit question with him.

 

Kirk will be a priority or top tier target for a lot of teams because he is perceived to be young and on the rise breaking out, meaning they can get a guy they believe is capable of putting up numbers like some of these other guys in a featured role while paying him considerably less money than several of those other guys will get.  

 

So if you want to list these guys in tiers based on their resumes, sure, you can make a case for your list.  But if you want to grade as a free agency tier, Kirk will likely have the biggest market for his services than anyone on that list making him a higher tier free agent.  

 

I hear what you are saying, but I'm thinking in terms of tiers of market value. I understand that you are saying Kirk at around $12 mil/yr is going to attract more teams, maybe many more, than the top tier talent. And maybe that inflates his final number.

 

But if he's so in demand that he gets above market value, let's say aggressively $14/yr, wouldn't that drive those teams to the higher talent anyway? Why pay Kirk $14 mil/yr when you can pay Robinson, Cooper, or Williams $16-17mil/yr?

 

Couple that with the idea that teams could get a legitimate starting WR in the draft from picks 20-50 and i think you might see a hard ceiling for the guys in that $10-12 mil/yr tier.

[Norcalbillsfan]

Id love to see what kirk could do with Allen. But I think kirk could get a little too pricey for beanes taste. And paying kirk that contract would make it more difficult to sign Gabe in the future.  I wouldn't be surprised if beane goes WR in draft and cheaper vet on a 1 year. 

[Einstein's Dog]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I would be happy to be wrong about that and see him somehow land here, just today it seems unrealistic given the reasons I stated.  

 

I think with a deep WR draft, Beane more likely sounds an affordable vet and then drafts 1 or 2 guys this year.  I think if Beane was to make any kind of splash move in FA or in Trade ahead of the draft, odds are higher it would be at RB, CB, DT, or DE than say WR.  Then again, you never know with Beane, just my personal opinion of what I think he will do this year.  

I agree with you that it is a long shot to Kirk.  If the Bills weren't going to pay Beas $7M I don't see them paying C Kirk >$10M.  And that's okay because to me it seems like it would be a bad decision.  Getting a WR in the draft is clearly the way to go.  Cheap developing WR for Josh is the medium/long term answer.

 

In the short term I would rather they get Gronk for $8M, re-sign McKenzie for $3M and work in their draft pick.