Spotrac spitballs C. Kirk & C. Williams to Bills

[MarlinTheMagician]

Serious Question:  I have not watched Kirk much.  Is he better than McKenzie?

 

[BuffaloRebound]

The odds of actually earning the non-guaranteed portion of your contract are exponentially higher on a team with a stable coach/QB situation.  That is way more important than whether a guy gets 800 yards vs 1000 yards.  

[Alphadawg7]

4 hours ago, NoSaint said:

i think “giving up 10-20M” is a bit extreme in the framing. If beane wants him, he’d be able to easily offer more than 6 and slot this in as Kirk/Davis replacing beasley/sanders. 
 

If we are in on Kirk, we are north of 40 not sub 25 on a 4 year deal

How do you figure that’s extreme?  He is gonna get offers likely in the $40M range over 4 years.  Beane likely wouldn’t/couldn’t offer more than $24M to $28M ($6m to $7m a year).  If Beane offers $7m per for 4 years, that would be in the range of $12m less than he’s likely gonna get other offers for.  And if someone pays a premium for his services as we often see in FA, that gap could be even bigger.  
 

And honestly I doubt Beane even offers more than 3 years with Allen’s contract coming into play next year and Diggs extension coming soon too.  
 

So it’s not extreme because we aren’t going to get close to the $10m+ a year he’s gonna get offers for.  We can’t afford to, nor do we need to.  We still have Diggs, Davis and Cole, we aren’t desperate at WR by any means.  Beane will add either a cheaper FA, address WR in the draft, or maybe both.  He isn’t committing double digits annually to another WR at $10m+.  
 

WR is a deep position in this draft, so I don’t expect any pricey WR free agent additions this year, especially with Davis seemingly ready to emerge and start.

 

 

Edited February 24, 2022 by Alphadawg7

[loyal2dagame]

If the Bills could get only 1 of either Patterson at 5 mil/yr or Kirk at 7 mil/yr, which one do you take? 

[Alphadawg7]

42 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I’d be somewhat surprised if Beasley is still in the team next year. … and desperate? No. But they can certainly upgrade in a league where the skills position is becoming more important year after year.

We will add at least one, maybe two guys at WR for sure.  I just don’t see us spending on a premium free agent, we don’t need to commit that much cap space to the WR position.  It’s another deep WR draft.  
 

So I think it’s more probable we keep Cole (Beane already said he expects him here this year meaning he’s likely here unless a trade he likes comes up) with Diggs and Davis, then keep Stevenson as well as our returner.  They will then draft a guy and maybe add a budget friendly free agent possibly too.  
 

But spending $40m+ on a free agent WR isn’t happening IMHO.  

[Paul Costa]

3 hours ago, MarlinTheMagician said:

Serious Question:  I have not watched Kirk much.  Is he better than McKenzie?

 

Kirk is way way better than lil’ dirty

47 minutes ago, loyal2dagame said:

If the Bills could get only 1 of either Patterson at 5 mil/yr or Kirk at 7 mil/yr, which one do you take? 

Paterson and it’s not even close . ✔️

[BuffaloRebound]

I wonder what length teams go to protect their cap spreadsheet which has all their cut, re-structure and free agent projections?  Somebody like Schoen probably knows everything the Bills are planning on doing this off-season.  

[BuffaloRebound]

https://www.nfl.com/news/cardinals-wr-christian-kirk-open-minded-heading-into-free-agency-i-just-want-to-

 

This is either an elaborate ruse or he’s heading to Buffalo.  

[BADOLBILZ]

9 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

https://www.nfl.com/news/cardinals-wr-christian-kirk-open-minded-heading-into-free-agency-i-just-want-to-

 

This is either an elaborate ruse or he’s heading to Buffalo.  

 

I think you can put the quote right in.......

 

"TMZ asked Kirk directly if he was angling to get to Buffalo."

 

"Possibly," he deftly responded. "Like I said, I'm just going to let my team and people that are helping me make the decision help me out. We'll see where it goes."

[Warcodered]

17 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

https://www.nfl.com/news/cardinals-wr-christian-kirk-open-minded-heading-into-free-agency-i-just-want-to-

 

This is either an elaborate ruse or he’s heading to Buffalo.  

I'd say it's him not closing any doors.

[LABILLBACKER]

Both these moves are meh to me. Williams has been known to get beat. And $12M is a little steep for Beasley's replacement. Draft a fast slot guy and get him cheap for 5 years. Believe in Bates and stop assuming he turns into Groy.

Edited March 7, 2022 by LABILLBACKER

[MrEpsYtown]

Interesting tidbit on Kirk is that apparently best friends with Kyle Allen. They are like childhood best friends and went to A&M together. Explains why they were all together. Kirk is probably the perfect add, and having Kyle Allen as a long term backup behind Josh makes a ton of sense. 

 

 

[Big Turk]

That would require some serious finagling of the cap to work those deals in

[gordong]

why are we not hearing anything about the defense??   we're going to need a DT, and edge rusher (someone that can get 10-14 sacks please) and we need  CB.  (I assume the first pick) 

[NewEra]

9 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Both these moves are meh to me. Williams has been known to get beat. And $12M is a little steep for Beasley's replacement. Draft a fast slot guy and get him cheap for 5 years. Believe in Bates and stop assuming he turns into Groy.

It’s more than just believing in Bates and Williams @ OG.  What happens when one of them doesn’t live up our hopes or gets hurt?  Then we could be right back to the jax game, which essentially ended our season as we lost home field vs KC.  Lots of blocks to a team and they aren’t all playmakers.  

 

we can’t just go into the season thinking that bringing back last years OL is good enough. We have to improve our OL, not just hope it’s just as good as our 5 week run last year.  The OL didn’t play very well game vs KC…..josh saved their butts by being god like.
 

 

[Alphadawg7]

On 2/24/2022 at 9:21 AM, loyal2dagame said:

If the Bills could get only 1 of either Patterson at 5 mil/yr or Kirk at 7 mil/yr, which one do you take? 

 

$7M a year?  I can't see Kirk signing anywhere for just $7M a year, he will be at or above double digits IMHO, and the market is already said to be red hot for him.  Kirk will most likely get over $10M and wouldn't surprise me to see someone give him as much as $14M a year if there is a bidding war for his services with multiple suitors trying to sign him.  

 

Translation:  He won't be a Buffalo Bill in 2022.  We won't be shelling that kind of money out to the WR position this offseason, especially with a deep WR class this year.  Not to mention we still have Diggs and Davis for sure here this year.  Bills will land another affordable vet and draft one or two guys is my prediction.  

[BrooklynBills]

On 2/24/2022 at 11:52 AM, Alphadawg7 said:

 

WR is a deep position in this draft, so I don’t expect any pricey WR free agent additions this year, especially with Davis seemingly ready to emerge and start.

 

 

 

This will also bring down values in the 2nd and 3rd tier of FA WRs, which is where Kirk is.

 

Deep WR draft won't affect the top WRs but you could see some value suppression as all these teams are going to be thinking the same thing about getting WRs in the draft round 1-4. Difference is that the Bills want to win now now and other teams who are still building could see the advantage of drafting a WR.

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

$7M a year?  I can't see Kirk signing anywhere for just $7M a year, he will be at or above double digits IMHO, and the market is already said to be red hot for him.  Kirk will most likely get over $10M and wouldn't surprise me to see someone give him as much as $14M a year if there is a bidding war for his services with multiple suitors trying to sign him.  

 

Translation:  He won't be a Buffalo Bill in 2022.  We won't be shelling that kind of money out to the WR position this offseason, especially with a deep WR class this year.  Not to mention we still have Diggs and Davis for sure here this year.  Bills will land another affordable vet and draft one or two guys is my prediction.  

I'm not joining in to argue with you, because I don't really know much about Kirk on the field or in terms of his personality, and you're way more on top of these things than I am.   However, there is one point I raise from time to time, and it's relevant here.

 

There are guys who are mature enough to recognize that they really don't need to squeeze every last dollar out of their NFL careers, and those guys may very well sign in the right situation for a good deal less than the market.   Not saying Kirk is one of those, but it's an important in these discussions.   

 

If a guy can make $40 million in his NFL career, that's more money than he needs to be set for life.  Would he prefer $60 million?   Sure, but in that range, it's all play money.   

 

$40 million over a career is $20 million in the bank after taxes and personal living expenses while he's playing (at maybe $300-$400,000 a year).   $20 million the bank is easily $600,000 a year for live, with inflation adjustments.   That's in the top .5% of wealth in the country. 

 

Now, some guys want every dollar, but some get to the point where they know they have enough, and for them, other circumstances become more important.   

 

So, not knowing anything about Kirk, I still wouldn't dismiss out of hand the idea that the guy might want to play in Buffalo.  I said this in the Amari Cooper thread:  OBJ was thrilled to go to a team with a QB who could throw and with an entrenched #1 receiver.   I'd expect most free agent receivers will have Buffalo on their lists, for some Buffalo will be at or near the top of their lists, because who wouldn't want to line up opposite Stephon Diggs with Josh Allen throwing the ball?

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm not joining in to argue with you, because I don't really know much about Kirk on the field or in terms of his personality, and you're way more on top of these things than I am.   However, there is one point I raise from time to time, and it's relevant here.

 

There are guys who are mature enough to recognize that they really don't need to squeeze every last dollar out of their NFL careers, and those guys may very well sign in the right situation for a good deal less than the market.   Not saying Kirk is one of those, but it's an important in these discussions.   

 

If a guy can make $40 million in his NFL career, that's more money than he needs to be set for life.  Would he prefer $60 million?   Sure, but in that range, it's all play money.   

 

$40 million over a career is $20 million in the bank after taxes and personal living expenses while he's playing (at maybe $300-$400,000 a year).   $20 million the bank is easily $600,000 a year for live, with inflation adjustments.   That's in the top .5% of wealth in the country. 

 

Now, some guys want every dollar, but some get to the point where they know they have enough, and for them, other circumstances become more important.   

 

So, not knowing anything about Kirk, I still wouldn't dismiss out of hand the idea that the guy might want to play in Buffalo.  I said this in the Amari Cooper thread:  OBJ was thrilled to go to a team with a QB who could throw and with an entrenched #1 receiver.   I'd expect most free agent receivers will have Buffalo on their lists, for some Buffalo will be at or near the top of their lists, because who wouldn't want to line up opposite Stephon Diggs with Josh Allen throwing the ball?

 

The only thing to consider is that almost every player has an agent that will negotiate for a few offers and let the player choose.  Its easy to say i will take less - til i see how much the dolphins will pay with no income tax.  

[Alphadawg7]

16 minutes ago, BrooklynBills said:

 

This will also bring down values in the 2nd and 3rd tier of FA WRs, which is where Kirk is.

 

Deep WR draft won't affect the top WRs but you could see some value suppression as all these teams are going to be thinking the same thing about getting WRs in the draft round 1-4. Difference is that the Bills want to win now now and other teams who are still building could see the advantage of drafting a WR.

 

I think then you will be surprised to see the market for Kirk.  He certainly wont be a "3rd tier" FA WR, and will widely seen as one of the better FA WR's on the market this year.