Stefon Diggs extension thoughts

[BillsShredder83]

On 2/20/2022 at 11:49 PM, Estro said:

Stefon Diggs is in the prime of his career & just turned 28 in November. He's underpaid thanks to a very team friendly contract he signed w/ the Vikings & I think this is the yr. he's going to get a big $ extension.

 

But how many prime yrs. does Stefon have left in the tank?  I thought of 5 WRs to compare to Diggs to see when their cliff came. Based on physical traits my comps were Marvin Harrison, Antonio Brown, Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne & Isaac Bruce.  They are not physically imposing or pure burner types, but more of the crafty, route running, technician type WRs.

 

Marvin Harrison's cliff came in his age 35 season. Antonio Brown is tough to use in this exercise because his cliff is a result of his off field stuff, so let's throw him out. Steve Smith hit his cliff during his age 34 season. Reggie Wayne & Isaac Bruce both hit the wall @ 35 years old.  

 

I was actually surprised to see how old these guys were before they hit their wall. I would've guessed their stats dived around 32 years old, so seeing productive seasons until 34-35 makes an extension much more palatable.

 

& while it's nice having 2 years left on an extremely team friendly deal I don't see Diggs being cool playing for 60% of his value any longer and so I think something gets done this offseason.

 

We know Beane will hand out top of the market deals to key players (Allen, White, Dawkins), but we also know he likes to keep the remaining yrs of the current deal & tack on the big $ as an extension. 

 

Diggs has:

 

2 years - $27.2M left on his deal & his current valuation via spotrac is $22.1M per yr.  So I think Diggs is in line for a 3 year $67.5M extension & they'll keep the remaing 2 yrs @ $27.2M as part of the deal.  This way Diggs & his agent can promote $22.5M per year, but the team gets a more manageable 5 years of control @ $95M for an avg APY of $19M per. The Bills will also give Diggs a nice chunk of change up front in the form of bonuses, which players desire and it'll help drop his cap hit for the '22 season and maybe even the '23 season before a sizeable jump in 2024 (when the sakary cap itself will be much higher.)

 

He's currently set to have an $18M cap hit in '22 & with the extension above his cap hit could easily be cut in half although I'd expect Beane to massage that # to around 12M. This gives the team an extra $6M in cap space this year.

 

Lastly I'd expect guaranteed money to run 3 years, so there'd be a possible out after Diggs age 31 season, but would probably be more palatable from a dead $ standpoint to move on after year 4 if need be (when Diggs would be 32). And after doing the research on other WRs producing well @ 33-34 I don't think it unrealistic to think he could play out all 5 years at a high level.

 

 

The skill set he brings is definitely the friendliest to aging. He's a technical precision route runner, and that doesn't fade the way speed, or power does. 

His footwork creates his separation, these guys don't fall of a cliff first sign their body fails them. Craftsman!

I'm comfortable signing him to any number of years, as far out, as the accountants are comfortable making the #s work.

[CoudyBills]

On 2/21/2022 at 7:40 AM, Back2Buff said:

I don't understand the whole narrative that he is underpaid.  People overvalue Diggs because they don't follow the NFL enough.

 

Diggs is in a mix of WR in the 5-10 range, depending on the game.  He is paid right in that range.

 

The Bills have already gave him more cash this past year.  Let him play out his deal and replace him.

Just heard on the radio that Adams might be signed for 30 a year.  Even at 10 that would make Diggs wildly underpaid.

[Back2Buff]

15 hours ago, CoudyBills said:

Just heard on the radio that Adams might be signed for 30 a year.  Even at 10 that would make Diggs wildly underpaid.

 

I just heard on the radio that Trubinsky is signing for 100 a year.  Even at 40 million, Allen is underpaid.

[Royale with Cheese]

2 hours ago, Back2Buff said:

 

I just heard on the radio that Trubinsky is signing for 100 a year.  Even at 40 million, Allen is underpaid.

 

This is the best you can do?

[BADOLBILZ]

22 hours ago, CoudyBills said:

Just heard on the radio that Adams might be signed for 30 a year.  Even at 10 that would make Diggs wildly underpaid.

 

 

The franchise tag is like $22M for a WR so Davante isn't likely to see much, if any, higher than that aav on a long term deal unless the guarantees are lower than normal.

 

WR1 is still a difference making, big money position but the supply is getting better every season recently............that HAS to start impacting the top salaries for the position at some point.   It may be this season.

[Chicken Boo]

On 2/21/2022 at 8:18 AM, JGMcD2 said:

Explain how he’s not a top 5 receiver since arriving in Buffalo… 

 

He’s also not paid in the 5-10 range. His cap hit is 9th for WR but his AAV is 17th. AAV is more important when it comes to valuing the player. 

 

 

The NFL is so deep in WR talent.  There's about 15 elite guys in the league right now.  It's crazy.

[BarleyNY]

On 2/22/2022 at 1:07 PM, GunnerBill said:

So I had a little play with Estro's proposed numbers to try and come up with a contract structure for Diggs. So Estro posited a 3 year extension at about $67.5m, that takes the total value of Diggs's deal to 5 years, $95m. That would put him 6th in AAV among receivers. So I've sweetened the pot to the tune of another $1.25m over the length of the deal meaning a 3 year $68.75m extension and a total value of $96.25m. That would take Diggs into the top 5 in AAV and I suspect that would be a feather in the agent's cap. 

 

Of that new $68.75m, I would guarantee $41m of it at signing. That is in addition to the $8.6m restructure bonus he has already been paid as part of his existing deal but which the Bills still need to account for (so the total value of the table below is actually $104.85m).

 

I break it down like this:

 

Amortised signing bonus of $25m

	Guaranteed Salary	Non-Guaranteed Salary	Amortised Bonus	Roster Bonus	Cash	Cap Hit	Dead Cap
2022	$3m	-	$9.3m	-	$28m	$12.3m	$47.6m
2023	$11m	-	$9.3m	-	$11m	$20.3m	$37.3m
2024	$2m	$12.5m	$5m	$2.75m	$17.25m	$22.25m	$17m
2025	-	$15.75m	$5m	$2.75m	$18.5m	$23.5m	$10m
2026	-	$18.75m	$5m	$2.75m	$21.5m	$26.5m	$5m

 

 

Reasons why this contract works for the Bills:

1. It would reduce Diggs's cap hit in 2022 when the Bills are tight on space and provide them with an additional $6m of cap room;

2. It only increases his 2023 hit by about $2m and while the Bills on the face of it look like they have a chunk of space in 2023 (circa $55m) they also only have 27 players under contract and four of those are guys who have never progressed beyond the practice squad;

3. It only actually ties them to Diggs one more year: his age 30 season in 2024 (he will turn 31 towards the end of that season). If the Bills want to get out after that a $10m cap hit that can be spread over two years would not hamstring them. The more likely scenario is it in reality extends him for two years and he moves on aged 32 after 2025 for a minimal cap hit. 

4. It keeps Josh Allen his favourite target as he starts to go in to his big number cap years. 

 

Reasons why this contract works for Stefon Diggs:

1. It puts him in the top 5 of wide receivers by AAV. That is justified by his performance.

2. It takes him from only $8.6m guaranteed money to $49.6m in guaranteed money.

3. It pays him $12m more in the next two years in new money than his current deal. 

4. It keeps him in a spot where he is happy, in a pass heavy offense with an elite Quarterback and a chance to win a championship. 

That’s really nice work.  

[eball]

46 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The franchise tag is like $22M for a WR so Davante isn't likely to see much, if any, higher than that aav on a long term deal unless the guarantees are lower than normal.

 

WR1 is still a difference making, big money position but the supply is getting better every season recently............that HAS to start impacting the top salaries for the position at some point.   It may be this season.

 

All the more reason to draft one in the first round, and get another one later as well.

[John from Riverside]

31 minutes ago, eball said:

 

All the more reason to draft one in the first round, and get another one later as well.

Definately the top position in my mock

[Ethan in Cleveland]

A good solution is to change his salary this year to all bonus money with a slight increase. Then add a couple years with some guaranteed money next year.   Its a win win.  Diggs get his money up front and lowers his cap hit for this year.  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

On 2/21/2022 at 9:50 AM, Back2Buff said:

 

1.)  What has Diggs said or done since being in Buffalo where you make it sound like he is all about money.  Quite frankly, his latest interview he did for some podcast made it sound the exact opposite.  He more focused on winning.  Diggs has been plenty rewarded.  He got paid handsomely to do his job.  Buffalo needs to get over the little dog mentality where they need to bend over backwards for every player that produces to his contract, like they did with Shady to come here.  If Diggs doesn't want to play for 13.65 million in his last year of deal after being in NFL for 8 years and about to turn 30, then good luck sitting out a year and coming back to find top dollar.

 

2.)  95% of players decline in their 30s, it's becoming a norm for players to not even play into their 30s.  He is already experiencing nagging issues that is preventing him from practicing.  He had his worst catch % of his career this year.  We seen a lot more drops than normal, and he was pretty much invisible in the playoffs.  

 

3.)  You should be spending the money on players where the QB can't help overcome a lesser talent.  For instance, you should be able to get away with lesser WRs, because you have a franchise QB.  If your paying top dollar for QB and WR, other area will severely be hampered. 

Hmmm.  Rams seemed to do well with paying Stafford, Kupp, Woods, and adding OBJ.  

[CoudyBills]

10 hours ago, Back2Buff said:

 

I just heard on the radio that Trubinsky is signing for 100 a year.  Even at 40 million, Allen is underpaid.

That statement makes you a liar.

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The franchise tag is like $22M for a WR so Davante isn't likely to see much, if any, higher than that aav on a long term deal unless the guarantees are lower than normal.

 

WR1 is still a difference making, big money position but the supply is getting better every season recently............that HAS to start impacting the top salaries for the position at some point.   It may be this season.

Just passing along what I heard.

[FilthyBeast]

At some point Diggs will likely demand ridiculous money (if it's not already happening behind the scenes).

 

But you really have to wonder if his success is more about playing with Allen vs. the guy that was drafted to replace him in MN who is a superstar with some serious raw talent putting up crazy numbers with the same QB Diggs couldn't produce with.

 

[JerseyBills]

I'd be thrilled with a 2-3 year extension. 

Just like the guys you mentioned, Diggs brings a certain energy, mentality and leadership to this team , which imo is just as valuable as his amazing on field skills.

 

You got a guy like him in his prime , you don't let him go.

 

[Back2Buff]

14 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Hmmm.  Rams seemed to do well with paying Stafford, Kupp, Woods, and adding OBJ.  

 

Last year those 4 players combined for 32 million of cap space.  In 2024 when Diggs is up for an extension, Allen will count 41 million against the cap alone.

 

Rams will have cap ramifications coming up for those players. This was their year where they had cushion.

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, Back2Buff said:

 

Last year those 4 players combined for 32 million of cap space.  In 2024 when Diggs is up for an extension, Allen will count 41 million against the cap alone.

 

Rams will have cap ramifications coming up for those players. This was their year where they had cushion.

Cap ramifications!  Oh no!  All the Rams have to show for that is a Super Bowl trophy!  Well, one Super Bowl trophy so far. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Bump

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/brandon-beane-don-t-see-163135511.html

 

Brandon Beane: I don’t see Stefon Diggs’ contract being an issue
 

Bills General Manager Brandon Beane doesn’t believe there’s any concern that Diggs is unhappy.
 

“We’ve got Stefon for two years so we know that. At the right time we’ll work with his reps and see if there’s something to be done that works for him,” Beane said. “He’s a winner.
 

He’s all in on winning and, sure, everybody wants to be paid but he wants to be on a winning team. I think he’s been the best version of himself. So I don’t see that being an issue.”

[Inigo Montoya]

This was my response in a similar thread on the Diggs situation earlier today;

 

I would hate to see Diggs leave Buffalo.  He's a great wide receiver and has been a big part of turning this franchise around.  Having said that, look at the list of WRs who have had career years with Josh throwing them the ball;

 

Zay Jones had his career year catching balls from a rookie Josh Allen in 2018.  So did Robert Foster.  John Brown has his career best season during his first year with Josh in 2019. Beasley has a career year in 2019 with second year Josh throwing him the ball, and then surpasses those numbers the following year in 2020.  2020 is the year Diggs comes to town and what does he do?  He has his best season ever.  Look at McKenzie and Gabe Davis.  I don't think their success is a coincidence either.

 

Just one example, look at those ridiculous sideline throws to Gabe Davis all last year.  What other QB could make those throws, running for his life, and still putting the ball EXACTLY where it needs to be to give Davis a chance to pull it in?  We're they great catches by Davis?  Absolutely.  Does Davis even have a chance to make those catches if someone else is throwing him the ball?  Not a chance in hell.

 

The common theme here is who is slinging these guys the rock.  I think Josh is the kind of QB that elevates the WRs on the roster just like Brady did for all those years in New England.  Josh doesn't need a Davante Adams or Tyreek Hill to help elevate his game, it's the other way around.  We don't need superstar WRs to come here, I think we just  need solid WRs and Josh will do the rest.

 

I really hope we find a way to keep Diggs, but I don't think it's a catastrophe if we can't.  As long as we have 17 our passing game will be in good shape.

[BillMafia716ix]

I just can’t justify paying a WR 30M’s. I love Diggs but it’s just not a good investment long term.  I think the Bills are waiting to see if Gabe Davis really takes off this season. If he does, I think they’ll trade Diggs next off-season. Very similar to what KC did with T. Hill.

[Logic]

It's a simple question for teams in the 2022 NFL:

Do you have a no-doubt-about-it, bona fide franchise QB that you're paying big money to?

If not, feel free to keep your playmaking WRs around. Sign or re-sign them to a large contract. Hope that they can elevate your QB to the next level or make up for his deficiencies with their elite abilities. Maybe even trade for one if you don't have one (see: Adams, Hill).

If so, don't pay giant contracts to WRs. Let them walk when their contracts are up, confident that you can replenish your WR depth chart through the ample (and ever increasing) amount of talented WRs coming out in the draft. Use the money you save to retain talent at other, more important positions instead. Trust that your next level QB will elevate the WRs around him. Re-signing young WRs when their rookie deals are up may be okay, depending on what type of AAV they command. Once they hit that $20M+ stratosphere, it's time to move on.

That's the new NFL, to me. WRs are trending toward being as replaceable as running backs. So yeah, I love Diggs. But no, I'm not paying him $22M+ per year as he enters his 30s. It's one of the reasons I'd like to see the Bills draft a couple talented young WRs THIS YEAR, so that when it IS time for Diggs to walk, Gabe Davis and the youngsters will be ready to take over.

Edited March 27, 2022 by Logic