Stefon Diggs extension thoughts

[Back2Buff]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I think he's trolling. I missed it at first, but in his last sentence he suggests we replace him. Nuts.

 

 

Utter bull####.

 

No player gives a crap about what he made this year. It's what he makes over the length of time he's under contract.

 

He's 17th.

 

You can't be serious.  You can't change the past.  All you can do is worry about your current year salary.  

 

Even in 2022 he is expected to make 13.5 million, which is 12th in NFL, right below guys like Kupp (14.8), Evans (14).

 

Diggs had a regression year, I don't think he's getting better with age, that is extremely rare.  We can't be handing out cash to guys already under contract that are in a decline.  There is a salary cap, and now is the time to prepare for future.  If everything goes correctly, you are paying Davis top dollar in two year and hopefully a guy on a rookie deal slides in for Diggs.  That's how team building works when you have a QB making 50 million in cap

[JGMcD2]

7 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

 

No player gives a crap about cap hit.  It's all about how much cash they took home for the year.  Let's do a comparison in 2021:

 

Cash earnings:

 

Diggs: 15.1 million

 

Hill: 15.6 million

Godwin: 16.0 million

Hopkins: 13.75 million

C.Samuel: 13.4 million

Kupp: 13 million

Adams: 12.7 million.

Evans: 12.25 million

Thielen: 11.6 million

I also said that nobody cares about cap hit… but your reference of him being paid in the 5-10 range is his cap hit. You brought cap hit up. 
 

Where are you getting $15.1M from?
 

I specifically said AAV is what people use to discuss player value. This isn’t an argument… that’s how it works. AAV. He’s 17th. 
 

EDIT: NVM I see the $15.1M. No need for clarification there. 

Edited February 21, 2022 by JGMcD2

[Back2Buff]

1 minute ago, JGMcD2 said:

I also said that nobody cares about cap hit… but your reference of him being paid in the 5-10 range is his cap hit. You brought cap hit up. 
 

Where are you getting $15.1M from?
 

I specifically said AAV is what people use to discuss player value. This isn’t an argument… that’s how it works. AAV. He’s 17th. 

 

Stefon Diggs Contract Breakdowns, Salary Cap Figures, Salaries, Bonuses | Spotrac

 

I never brought up cap hit.

Edited February 21, 2022 by Back2Buff

[GunnerBill]

And even more critical he has very little guaranteed money left and that is the figure NFL players care about most!

[JGMcD2]

4 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

 

Stefon Diggs Contract Breakdowns, Salary Cap Figures, Salaries, Bonuses | Spotrac

 

I never brought up cap hit.

This is your quote: 
 

“Diggs is in a mix of WR in the 5-10 range, depending on the game.  He is paid right in that range.”

 

You referenced him being in the 5-10 range for WR and being paid in that same range… without any other context. 
 

He was 21st in cap hit, 11th in cash and 20th in AAV in 2021. 
 

He’s 17th in AAV and 12th in cash for 2022. 
 

The only place he is in the 5-10 range for WR is his cap hit for 2022… where he is 9th. Any logical person would have reached the conclusion you were referring to cap hit. 

[Back2Buff]

1 minute ago, JGMcD2 said:

This is your quote: 
 

“Diggs is in a mix of WR in the 5-10 range, depending on the game.  He is paid right in that range.”

 

You referenced him being in the 5-10 range for WR and being paid in that same range… without any other context. 
 

He was 21st in cap hit, 11th in cash and 20th in AAV in 2021. 
 

He’s 17th in AAV and 12th in cash for 2022. 
 

The only place he is in the 5-10 range for WR is his cap hit for 2022… where he is 9th. Any logical person would have reached the conclusion you were referring to cap hit. 

 

I don't include rookie deals in the comparison.  They are extremely front loaded.  Like for instance, Chase got 20.4 in cash in 2021 and will get 2 next year.

 

So last year it went

Lockett - 21

Cooper - 20

Golladay - 18.2

Robinson - 18

Godwin - 16

M.Williams - 15.7

Hill - 15.6

J.Jones - 15.3

Diggs

 

He was 9th and how many of the guys above are you saying it was worth it to give the WR that extra money?

 

There is a line with WRs and Diggs is at that perfect line.  No need to touch.

[Thurman#1]

22 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

 

You can't be serious.  You can't change the past.  All you can do is worry about your current year salary.  

 

Even in 2022 he is expected to make 13.5 million, which is 12th in NFL, right below guys like Kupp (14.8), Evans (14).

 

Diggs had a regression year, I don't think he's getting better with age, that is extremely rare.  We can't be handing out cash to guys already under contract that are in a decline.  There is a salary cap, and now is the time to prepare for future.  If everything goes correctly, you are paying Davis top dollar in two year and hopefully a guy on a rookie deal slides in for Diggs.  That's how team building works when you have a QB making 50 million in cap

 

 

Folks, nobody can be that stupid. This is utter proof he's completely trolling. You can't change the past. But you can (and anyone with a tenth of a brain absolutely will) count the entire amount paid over the course divided by the number of years as the key figure, assuming of course that he plays the whole contract, as Diggs will.

 

By your logic, a guy worth $1M a year would be perfectly happy if he'd gotten $50K in 2018, $50K in 2019, $50K in 2020, but $2M this year. That would thrill him by your logic. He wouldn't say, "Um, hey, I've got a four year contract worth $2.2M, I'm underpaid." No, he'd say, "Wow, I'm making twice my value this year. Psyched.l"

 

Nobody is that stupid. You can see that he's not just misguided.

 

Don't feed the trolls. 

[Royale with Cheese]

12 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

 

You can't be serious.  You can't change the past.  All you can do is worry about your current year salary.  

 

Even in 2022 he is expected to make 13.5 million, which is 12th in NFL, right below guys like Kupp (14.8), Evans (14).

 

Diggs had a regression year, I don't think he's getting better with age, that is extremely rare.  We can't be handing out cash to guys already under contract that are in a decline.  There is a salary cap, and now is the time to prepare for future.  If everything goes correctly, you are paying Davis top dollar in two year and hopefully a guy on a rookie deal slides in for Diggs.  That's how team building works when you have a QB making 50 million in cap

 

LOL.

 

Diggs last year was a record breaking year.  It was 7th all time in receptions at 127.  

Did you expect him to continue that pace or something?  120+ receptions, 1,500 + yards is supposed to be the norm?  Are you expecting this to be Madden?

 

Also, he's 28.  He can't get better at 29 or something?  Andre Reeds best season was when he was 30 and that was 30 years ago when players didn't last as long as they do now.

 

Great post.

[Estro]

7 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Good work on the #s

 

Have to quibble- Steve Smith was one of the strongest, most physical wideouts ever and was definitely imposing

 

as was prime AB, in his day one of the fastest and twitchiest imo 

It's a fair quibble, I almost pulled him out of the comps realizing he was a much more physical WR. 

1 hour ago, Back2Buff said:

I don't understand the whole narrative that he is underpaid.  People overvalue Diggs because they don't follow the NFL enough.

 

Diggs is in a mix of WR in the 5-10 range, depending on the game.  He is paid right in that range.

 

The Bills have already gave him more cash this past year.  Let him play out his deal and replace him.

$20-$22M is going to be in the 5-10 range for WR money in a year. 

 

Hopkins new deal gave him $27.5M per fir 2 years & you'll see Davante Adams get a similar # this offseason.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

 

I don't include rookie deals in the comparison.  They are extremely front loaded.  Like for instance, Chase got 20.4 in cash in 2021 and will get 2 next year.

 

So last year it went

Lockett - 21

Cooper - 20

Golladay - 18.2

Robinson - 18

Godwin - 16

M.Williams - 15.7

Hill - 15.6

J.Jones - 15.3

Diggs

 

He was 9th and how many of the guys above are you saying it was worth it to give the WR that extra money?

 

There is a line with WRs and Diggs is at that perfect line.  No need to touch.

 

That is a list of people who Hill apart are all not as good as Stef. It is exactly why he is likely to feel underpaid. 

 

I don't particularly disagree with you on where he ranks in terms of talent in the league. I think there is an argument he is 4th or 5th but there is equally an argument he is 7th or 8th. But I think he is a guy you extend. You just do it in a sensible way. The fact he has so little guaranteed money in the final two years of the current deal gives the Bills a decent amount of leverage in that negotiation. 

[BarleyNY]

58 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

I also said that nobody cares about cap hit… but your reference of him being paid in the 5-10 range is his cap hit. You brought cap hit up. 
 

Where are you getting $15.1M from?
 

I specifically said AAV is what people use to discuss player value. This isn’t an argument… that’s how it works. AAV. He’s 17th. 
 

EDIT: NVM I see the $15.1M. No need for clarification there. 

Here’s Spotrac’s list of WRs by AAV.  They show Diggs at 20th.  Reasonably he could use - deserves - a bump.  With two seasons left on his contract there’s a win-win to be had here.  Extend him now at a better rate than the Bills would get him at next offseason while Diggs gets some additional cash in hand now and a bump up in AAV that puts him more in line with his performance.  The Bills would also benefit from lowering his 2022 cap hit.

Edited February 21, 2022 by BarleyNY
Added link

[Back2Buff]

39 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That is a list of people who Hill apart are all not as good as Stef. It is exactly why he is likely to feel underpaid. 

 

I don't particularly disagree with you on where he ranks in terms of talent in the league. I think there is an argument he is 4th or 5th but there is equally an argument he is 7th or 8th. But I think he is a guy you extend. You just do it in a sensible way. The fact he has so little guaranteed money in the final two years of the current deal gives the Bills a decent amount of leverage in that negotiation. 

 

A guy of Diggs caliber, it really is no difference between guaranteed and not guaranteed.  It's not like he is going to be cut.

47 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Folks, nobody can be that stupid. This is utter proof he's completely trolling. You can't change the past. But you can (and anyone with a tenth of a brain absolutely will) count the entire amount paid over the course divided by the number of years as the key figure, assuming of course that he plays the whole contract, as Diggs will.

 

By your logic, a guy worth $1M a year would be perfectly happy if he'd gotten $50K in 2018, $50K in 2019, $50K in 2020, but $2M this year. That would thrill him by your logic. He wouldn't say, "Um, hey, I've got a four year contract worth $2.2M, I'm underpaid." No, he'd say, "Wow, I'm making twice my value this year. Psyched.l"

 

Nobody is that stupid. You can see that he's not just misguided.

 

Don't feed the trolls. 

 

So because I have a different opinion where I provided lots of data behind, you resort to name calling.

 

Rookie WRs are becoming plug and play.  Paying WRs over 15 million, is slowly becoming paying RB big money.  The value isn't there anymore.

 

Minnesota swapped out Diggs for Jefferson.

Edited February 21, 2022 by Back2Buff

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, Estro said:

 

 

He's currently set to have an $18M cap hit in '22 & with the extension above his cap hit could easily be cut in half although I'd expect Beane to massage that # to around 12M. This gives the team an extra $6M in cap space this year.

 

Lastly I'd expect guaranteed money to run 3 years, so there'd be a possible out after Diggs age 31 season, but would probably be more palatable from a dead $ standpoint to move on after year 4 if need be (when Diggs would be 32). And after doing the research on other WRs producing well @ 33-34 I don't think it unrealistic to think he could play out all 5 years at a high level.

 

 

 

 

In the Cover 1 Salary Cap Spectacular, Tompsett predicted a 3 year extension so you get him under contract for all five years possible to stretch the bonus out, 

 

And that from an agent's standpoint that they would be able to announce it as a 3 year $75M extension. Which would total just barely over $100M over 5 years, putting him 3rd or 4th, around there, overall in AAV. 

 

Tompsett suggested they could take his cap hit this year from about $17.9M down to about $12.7M.

 

So you're close to his guess. Seems very reasonable.

Edited February 21, 2022 by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

 

A guy of Diggs caliber, it really is no difference between guaranteed and not guaranteed.  It's not like he is going to be cut.

 

So because I have a different opinion where I provided lots of data behind, you resort to name calling.

 

Rookie WRs are becoming plug and play.  Paying WRs over 15 million, is slowly becoming paying RB big money.  The value isn't there anymore.

 

Minnesota swapped out Diggs for Jefferson.

 

I disagree on the bolded. Not when a receiver is really happy and comfortable in a spot with an elite Quarterback. Because I strongly suspect Stef wants to be here. So the Bills have leverage because at the moment he has no guarantee that he will be here beyond his age 29 season (he turns 30 towards the end of that season). 

 

As for rookie WRs becoming plug and play, the transition is definitely becoming easier, no argument there. But not every highly drafted receiver becomes Justin Jefferson off the bat. I don't think WRs are going to become the new running backs any time soon. 

[Back2Buff]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I disagree on the bolded. Not when a receiver is really happy and comfortable in a spot with an elite Quarterback. Because I strongly suspect Stef wants to be here. So the Bills have leverage because at the moment he has no guarantee that he will be here beyond his age 29 season (he turns 30 towards the end of that season). 

 

As for rookie WRs becoming plug and play, the transition is definitely becoming easier, no argument there. But not every highly drafted receiver becomes Justin Jefferson off the bat. I don't think WRs are going to become the new running backs any time soon. 

 

Then wouldn't that be bigger deal when he would hit FA in 2 years?  I really think you should let a 29 and 30 year old WR play out his seasons before throwing all this money at the guy.  History would show, he has peaked already, and his peak has been closer to now, than it would be at 30.

 

We also don't have the cap space now to take on more cap to reduce the cap in the future years when Allen will be making 50 million.  If Diggs is gonna wanna play for Allen in his 30s, he will need to do it at a reduction.  It's that simple when you are paying a QB 50 million.

 

If you don't trust your staff to draft a starting WR, then that's your staffs issue.  Like I said earlier, the cycle should be in two years you are paying Davis number 1 money, a guy you drafted this year or next is sliding in to the number 2 role, and you are drafting a 3rd WR to take over for Diggs.  The norm when you have a high paid QB.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

4 hours ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

If he is dating two girls the same evening, I seriously doubt he needs an 'extension'.  A performance enhancer, perhaps, but certainly not an 'extension'.

 

it’s not mine

[BarleyNY]

18 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

 

Then wouldn't that be bigger deal when he would hit FA in 2 years?  I really think you should let a 29 and 30 year old WR play out his seasons before throwing all this money at the guy.  History would show, he has peaked already, and his peak has been closer to now, than it would be at 30.

 

We also don't have the cap space now to take on more cap to reduce the cap in the future years when Allen will be making 50 million.  If Diggs is gonna wanna play for Allen in his 30s, he will need to do it at a reduction.  It's that simple when you are paying a QB 50 million.

 

If you don't trust your staff to draft a starting WR, then that's your staffs issue.  Like I said earlier, the cycle should be in two years you are paying Davis number 1 money, a guy you drafted this year or next is sliding in to the number 2 role, and you are drafting a 3rd WR to take over for Diggs.  The norm when you have a high paid QB.

I think that you have a lot wrong here.

1)  Diggs isn’t going to play out the last two years on his deal without an extension or real problems.  It would not be a good look for the team to not reward their best offensive player not named Allen.  He’s performed while on a below market value contract and publicly kept his mouth shut about it.  But that could change.  He might play this year under it, but now way does he play out his last season.  We’d be in for him holding out, causing issues in the media and locker room, etc.  He’d get a lot of support from players because they would understand that he’d deserve the extension.

 

2) Players - especially WRs that don’t rely on track speed - can maintain their performance into their 30s.  Rule changes that keep WRs healthier and advancements in nutrition and recovery are extending players’ careers.  If Diggs got a 3 year extension his contract would be ending when he would be 32.  That is about the age I would expect to see his performance decline.  If he didn’t quite make it that far, the Bills would have options since there would be no guarantees left on his contract. 
 

3) Teams that are paying their QB a lot of money still pay some other players. Their cap structure can support fewer upper and/or mid tier contracts, but every team that’s paying their QB still has some other large contracts on their books. 
 

4) No argument that a huge QB contract necessitates drafting well.  But let’s not get ahead of ourselves with Davis.  I hope he earns a huge deal.  He might, but he hasn’t yet.  A Diggs extension would not preclude a huge deal for him though.  It might be difficult but it is manageable if he’s a top player on our team.  Decisions will have to be made though.

[GunnerBill]

34 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

 

Then wouldn't that be bigger deal when he would hit FA in 2 years?  I really think you should let a 29 and 30 year old WR play out his seasons before throwing all this money at the guy.  History would show, he has peaked already, and his peak has been closer to now, than it would be at 30.

 

We also don't have the cap space now to take on more cap to reduce the cap in the future years when Allen will be making 50 million.  If Diggs is gonna wanna play for Allen in his 30s, he will need to do it at a reduction.  It's that simple when you are paying a QB 50 million.

 

If you don't trust your staff to draft a starting WR, then that's your staffs issue.  Like I said earlier, the cycle should be in two years you are paying Davis number 1 money, a guy you drafted this year or next is sliding in to the number 2 role, and you are drafting a 3rd WR to take over for Diggs.  The norm when you have a high paid QB.

 

There is a difference between him having peaked and him still having significant value as the trusted target of your Quarterback. The Bills have leverage now to get him on a team friendly contract because Diggs likely wants some more guaranteed money now put in his pocket and so you can get him at a competitive market rate and with reasonable opt outs built in. Diggs will be a couple of months past his 30th birthday at the point that his current deal expires. He can still be very productive for a couple of years after that. The Reggie Wayne comparison is a very good one in terms of style of play and he had 3 thousand yards seasons aged 31, 33 and 34. I am a big Gabe Davis fan but I think his ceiling is a very good #2. I don't think he is a top 10-15 receiver in the league. 

 

I think you try and do a two or three year extension that puts him in the Tyler Lockett / Allen Robinson range. You do it a way that lowers his hit this year and gives you an out after 2024 so you are only "locked in" on year more than you are contracted to him already. That is just smart roster management IMO. 

 

In short, I think your proposed strategy is the wrong one. 

 

 

[CapeBreton]

I love Diggs but I’d be hesitant to extend him for too long. I feel like players are peaking at an earlier age and there’s not many receivers who are super productive after age 30 these days. He was also pretty banged up for all of 2021 and barely practiced all year so that’s concerning. 

[Back2Buff]

24 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I think that you have a lot wrong here.

1)  Diggs isn’t going to play out the last two years on his deal without an extension or real problems.  It would not be a good look for the team to not reward their best offensive player not named Allen.  He’s performed while on a below market value contract and publicly kept his mouth shut about it.  But that could change.  He might play this year under it, but now way does he play out his last season.  We’d be in for him holding out, causing issues in the media and locker room, etc.  He’d get a lot of support from players because they would understand that he’d deserve the extension.

 

2) Players - especially WRs that don’t rely on track speed - can maintain their performance into their 30s.  Rule changes that keep WRs healthier and advancements in nutrition and recovery are extending players’ careers.  If Diggs got a 3 year extension his contract would be ending when he would be 32.  That is about the age I would expect to see his performance decline.  If he didn’t quite make it that far, the Bills would have options since there would be no guarantees left on his contract. 
 

3) Teams that are paying their QB a lot of money still pay some other players. Their cap structure can support fewer upper and/or mid tier contracts, but every team that’s paying their QB still has some other large contracts on their books. 
 

4) No argument that a huge QB contract necessitates drafting well.  But let’s not get ahead of ourselves with Davis.  I hope he earns a huge deal.  He might, but he hasn’t yet.  A Diggs extension would not preclude a huge deal for him though.  It might be difficult but it is manageable if he’s a top player on our team.  Decisions will have to be made though.

 

1.)  What has Diggs said or done since being in Buffalo where you make it sound like he is all about money.  Quite frankly, his latest interview he did for some podcast made it sound the exact opposite.  He more focused on winning.  Diggs has been plenty rewarded.  He got paid handsomely to do his job.  Buffalo needs to get over the little dog mentality where they need to bend over backwards for every player that produces to his contract, like they did with Shady to come here.  If Diggs doesn't want to play for 13.65 million in his last year of deal after being in NFL for 8 years and about to turn 30, then good luck sitting out a year and coming back to find top dollar.

 

2.)  95% of players decline in their 30s, it's becoming a norm for players to not even play into their 30s.  He is already experiencing nagging issues that is preventing him from practicing.  He had his worst catch % of his career this year.  We seen a lot more drops than normal, and he was pretty much invisible in the playoffs.  

 

3.)  You should be spending the money on players where the QB can't help overcome a lesser talent.  For instance, you should be able to get away with lesser WRs, because you have a franchise QB.  If your paying top dollar for QB and WR, other area will severely be hampered.