Stefon Diggs extension thoughts

[Estro]

Stefon Diggs is in the prime of his career & just turned 28 in November. He's underpaid thanks to a very team friendly contract he signed w/ the Vikings & I think this is the yr. he's going to get a big $ extension.

 

But how many prime yrs. does Stefon have left in the tank?  I thought of 5 WRs to compare to Diggs to see when their cliff came. Based on physical traits my comps were Marvin Harrison, Antonio Brown, Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne & Isaac Bruce.  They are not physically imposing or pure burner types, but more of the crafty, route running, technician type WRs.

 

Marvin Harrison's cliff came in his age 35 season. Antonio Brown is tough to use in this exercise because his cliff is a result of his off field stuff, so let's throw him out. Steve Smith hit his cliff during his age 34 season. Reggie Wayne & Isaac Bruce both hit the wall @ 35 years old.  

 

I was actually surprised to see how old these guys were before they hit their wall. I would've guessed their stats dived around 32 years old, so seeing productive seasons until 34-35 makes an extension much more palatable.

 

& while it's nice having 2 years left on an extremely team friendly deal I don't see Diggs being cool playing for 60% of his value any longer and so I think something gets done this offseason.

 

We know Beane will hand out top of the market deals to key players (Allen, White, Dawkins), but we also know he likes to keep the remaining yrs of the current deal & tack on the big $ as an extension. 

 

Diggs has:

 

2 years - $27.2M left on his deal & his current valuation via spotrac is $22.1M per yr.  So I think Diggs is in line for a 3 year $67.5M extension & they'll keep the remaing 2 yrs @ $27.2M as part of the deal.  This way Diggs & his agent can promote $22.5M per year, but the team gets a more manageable 5 years of control @ $95M for an avg APY of $19M per. The Bills will also give Diggs a nice chunk of change up front in the form of bonuses, which players desire and it'll help drop his cap hit for the '22 season and maybe even the '23 season before a sizeable jump in 2024 (when the sakary cap itself will be much higher.)

 

He's currently set to have an $18M cap hit in '22 & with the extension above his cap hit could easily be cut in half although I'd expect Beane to massage that # to around 12M. This gives the team an extra $6M in cap space this year.

 

Lastly I'd expect guaranteed money to run 3 years, so there'd be a possible out after Diggs age 31 season, but would probably be more palatable from a dead $ standpoint to move on after year 4 if need be (when Diggs would be 32). And after doing the research on other WRs producing well @ 33-34 I don't think it unrealistic to think he could play out all 5 years at a high level.

 

 

Edited February 21, 2022 by Estro

[Augie]

32 minutes ago, Estro said:

Stefon Diggs is in the prime of his career & just turned 28 in November. He's underpaid thanks to a very team friendly contract he signed w/ the Vikings & I think this is the yr. he's going to get a big $ extension.

 

But how many prime yrs. does Stefon have left in the tank?  I thought of 5 WRs to compare to Diggs to see when their cliff came. Based on physical traits my comps were Marvin Harrison, Antonio Brown, Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne & Isaac Bruce.  They are not physically imposing or pure burner types, but more of the crafty, route running, technician type WRs.

 

Marvin Harrison's cliff came in his age 35 season. Antonio Brown is tough to use in this exercise because his cliff is a result of his off field stuff, so let's throw him out. Steve Smith hit his cliff during his age 34 season. Reggie Wayne & Isaac Bruce both hit the wall @ 35 years old.  

 

I was actually surprised to see how old these guys were before they hit their wall. I would've guessed their stats dived around 32 years old, so seeing productive seasons until 34-35 makes an extension much more palatable.

 

& while it's nice having 2 years left on an extremely team friendly deal I don't see Diggs being cool playing for 60% of his value any longer and so I think something gets done this offseason.

 

We know Beane will hand out top of the market deals to key players (Allen, White, Dawkins), but we also know he likes to keep the remaining yrs of the current deal & tack on the big $ as an extension. 

 

Diggs has:

 

2 years - $27.2M left on his deal & his current valuation via spotrac is $22.1M per yr.  So I think Diggs is in line for a 3 year $67.5M extension & they'll keep the remaing 2 yrs @ $27.2M as part of the deal.  This way Diggs & his agent can promote $22.5M per year, but the team gets a more manageable 5 years of control @ $95M for an avg APY of $19M per. The Bills will also give Diggs a nice chunk of change up front in the form of bonuses, which players desire and it'll help drop his cap hit for the '22 season and maybe even the '23 season before a sizeable jump in 2024 (when the sakary cap itself will be much higher.)

 

He's currently set to have an $18M cap hit in '22 & with the extension above his cap hit could easily be cut in half although I'd expect Beane to massage that # to around 12M. This gives the team an extra $6M in cap space this year.

 

Lastly I'd expect guaranteed money to run 3 years, so there'd be a possible out after Diggs age 31 season, but would probably be more palatable from a dead $ standpoint to move on after year 4 if need be (when Diggs would be 32). And after doing the research on other WRs producing well @ 33-34 I don't think it unrealistic to think he could play out all 5 years at a high level.

 

 

 

I seriously applaud your use of paragraphs! Thank you!   😋

 

Beyond that? Yes, he needs to be extended and paid for the WR he truly is. But I’ll trust Beane to do that wisely, which often means to do it before you have to, and before the price goes up. (See Allen, Josh.) 

 

 

.

Edited February 21, 2022 by Augie

[John from Riverside]

I also want to thank you for using paragraphs

 

Only think a rework of diggs contract is coming

[Malazan]

I think recent events have shown us what Diggs would do with a million dollars..

 

 

.. and if my math is correct then 22 x 2 is 44

 

Give that man his money!

Edited February 21, 2022 by Malazan

[GoBills808]

Good work on the #s

 

Have to quibble- Steve Smith was one of the strongest, most physical wideouts ever and was definitely imposing

 

as was prime AB, in his day one of the fastest and twitchiest imo 

[MJS]

He should definately be extended. He is underpaid by a wide margin. Keep him happy. And you can lower his cap hit next season by doing so.

 

Absolute no-brainer. He has been mature and hasn't complained at all about his contract. Reward him for being an elite player and a great teammate and for not being a distraction.

[GunnerBill]

20 minutes ago, MJS said:

He should definately be extended. He is underpaid by a wide margin. Keep him happy. And you can lower his cap hit next season by doing so.

 

Absolute no-brainer. He has been mature and hasn't complained at all about his contract. Reward him for being an elite player and a great teammate and for not being a distraction.

 

All of this.... and for being Josh's guy. Every move they make on offense has to be with maximising Josh Allen in mind. Josh loves Stef and trusts him implicitly. 

 

Think Estro did a good job on the numbers. 

[HOUSE]

The guy has 2 girlfriends in ONE hotel, has to be expensive

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

55 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

The guy has 2 girlfriends in ONE hotel, has to be expensive

If he is dating two girls the same evening, I seriously doubt he needs an 'extension'.  A performance enhancer, perhaps, but certainly not an 'extension'.

[JMF2006]

1 hour ago, HOUSE said:

The guy has 2 girlfriends in ONE hotel, has to be expensive

 

He probably doesn't need an extension if they are lining up for it  

5 minutes ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

If he is dating two girls the same evening, I seriously doubt he needs an 'extension'.  A performance enhancer, perhaps, but certainly not an 'extension'.

 

You beat me to it

[Niagara Dude]

7 hours ago, Estro said:

Stefon Diggs is in the prime of his career & just turned 28 in November. He's underpaid thanks to a very team friendly contract he signed w/ the Vikings & I think this is the yr. he's going to get a big $ extension.

 

But how many prime yrs. does Stefon have left in the tank?  I thought of 5 WRs to compare to Diggs to see when their cliff came. Based on physical traits my comps were Marvin Harrison, Antonio Brown, Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne & Isaac Bruce.  They are not physically imposing or pure burner types, but more of the crafty, route running, technician type WRs.

 

Marvin Harrison's cliff came in his age 35 season. Antonio Brown is tough to use in this exercise because his cliff is a result of his off field stuff, so let's throw him out. Steve Smith hit his cliff during his age 34 season. Reggie Wayne & Isaac Bruce both hit the wall @ 35 years old.  

 

I was actually surprised to see how old these guys were before they hit their wall. I would've guessed their stats dived around 32 years old, so seeing productive seasons until 34-35 makes an extension much more palatable.

 

& while it's nice having 2 years left on an extremely team friendly deal I don't see Diggs being cool playing for 60% of his value any longer and so I think something gets done this offseason.

 

We know Beane will hand out top of the market deals to key players (Allen, White, Dawkins), but we also know he likes to keep the remaining yrs of the current deal & tack on the big $ as an extension. 

 

Diggs has:

 

2 years - $27.2M left on his deal & his current valuation via spotrac is $22.1M per yr.  So I think Diggs is in line for a 3 year $67.5M extension & they'll keep the remaing 2 yrs @ $27.2M as part of the deal.  This way Diggs & his agent can promote $22.5M per year, but the team gets a more manageable 5 years of control @ $95M for an avg APY of $19M per. The Bills will also give Diggs a nice chunk of change up front in the form of bonuses, which players desire and it'll help drop his cap hit for the '22 season and maybe even the '23 season before a sizeable jump in 2024 (when the sakary cap itself will be much higher.)

 

He's currently set to have an $18M cap hit in '22 & with the extension above his cap hit could easily be cut in half although I'd expect Beane to massage that # to around 12M. This gives the team an extra $6M in cap space this year.

 

Lastly I'd expect guaranteed money to run 3 years, so there'd be a possible out after Diggs age 31 season, but would probably be more palatable from a dead $ standpoint to move on after year 4 if need be (when Diggs would be 32). And after doing the research on other WRs producing well @ 33-34 I don't think it unrealistic to think he could play out all 5 years at a high level.

 

 

I would be fine with adding two more years ,  once a player get to 32-33 it becomes a year to year thing.  We cannot be on the hook for major money after he turns 32. A major reason why they Bills have no cap space is because Beane has overpaid on fringe players or B & C level players.  Diggs is one of the few A players on this team,  so work something out where he maybe reduces his cap number and receives bonus money spread over the next 5-6 years.

[Back2Buff]

I don't understand the whole narrative that he is underpaid.  People overvalue Diggs because they don't follow the NFL enough.

 

Diggs is in a mix of WR in the 5-10 range, depending on the game.  He is paid right in that range.

 

The Bills have already gave him more cash this past year.  Let him play out his deal and replace him.

[atlbillsfan1975]

For the sake of conversation, what happens if over the next two years, Gabe Davis turns into a more productive receiver than Diggs? Would Diggs contract prohibit signing Davis? Can you have $50 mil tied up in the WR room for a year or two? 
I am all for extending Diggs. It’s the off-season and I’m bored so this is just speculation on what Beane can do, if anything, to manage this scenario now with Diggs extension.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

20 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

For the sake of conversation, what happens if over the next two years, Gabe Davis turns into a more productive receiver than Diggs? Would Diggs contract prohibit signing Davis? Can you have $50 mil tied up in the WR room for a year or two? 
I am all for extending Diggs. It’s the off-season and I’m bored so this is just speculation on what Beane can do, if anything, to manage this scenario now with Diggs extension.

Suggestion:

1. Retain the better performing receiver.

2. Deal or release the lesser performer.

3. Blame it on OC / HC conflict.

[JGMcD2]

41 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

I don't understand the whole narrative that he is underpaid.  People overvalue Diggs because they don't follow the NFL enough.

 

Diggs is in a mix of WR in the 5-10 range, depending on the game.  He is paid right in that range.

 

The Bills have already gave him more cash this past year.  Let him play out his deal and replace him.

Explain how he’s not a top 5 receiver since arriving in Buffalo… 

 

He’s also not paid in the 5-10 range. His cap hit is 9th for WR but his AAV is 17th. AAV is more important when it comes to valuing the player. 

Edited February 21, 2022 by JGMcD2

[Buffalo Ballin]

Absolutely. Give Diggs his mega contract. He earned it; a top 5 NFL WR AND he's Josh Allen's guy. Gotta keep Josh happy.

[atlbillsfan1975]

43 minutes ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Suggestion:

1. Retain the better performing receiver.

2. Deal or release the lesser performer.

3. Blame it on OC / HC conflict.

Your first two points are preferred options, is there a way to accomplish this now while structuring Diggs contract? Seems like if Beane keeps Diggs happy then they move on from Davis in two years because the cap hit to cut/trade Diggs would be prohibitive. I will admit I’m not 100% positive how trades work regarding cap hits, but I’m pretty sure it depends on how the deal is structured. A player can be traded but the original team can still take a cap hit. 

Edited February 21, 2022 by atlbillsfan1975

[GunnerBill]

57 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

I don't understand the whole narrative that he is underpaid.  People overvalue Diggs because they don't follow the NFL enough.

 

Diggs is in a mix of WR in the 5-10 range, depending on the game.  He is paid right in that range.

 

The Bills have already gave him more cash this past year.  Let him play out his deal and replace him.

 

He is 17th in AAV. He is underpaid. If you are looking at single year cap hits that is a bad way to judge. 

[Back2Buff]

17 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Explain how he’s not a top 5 receiver since arriving in Buffalo… 

 

He’s also not paid in the 5-10 range. His cap hit is 9th for WR but his AAV is 17th. AAV is more important when it comes to valuing the player. 

 

No player gives a crap about cap hit.  It's all about how much cash they took home for the year.  Let's do a comparison in 2021:

 

Cash earnings:

 

Diggs: 15.1 million

 

Hill: 15.6 million

Godwin: 16.0 million

Hopkins: 13.75 million

C.Samuel: 13.4 million

Kupp: 13 million

Adams: 12.7 million.

Evans: 12.25 million

Thielen: 11.6 million

[Thurman#1]

30 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He is 17th in AAV. He is underpaid. If you are looking at single year cap hits that is a bad way to judge. 

 

 

I think he's trolling. I missed it at first, but in his last sentence he suggests we replace him. Nuts.

 

 

28 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:

 

No player gives a crap about cap hit.  It's all about how much cash they took home for the year.  Let's do a comparison in 2021:

 

Cash earnings:

 

Diggs: 15.1 million

 

Hill: 15.6 million

Godwin: 16.0 million

Hopkins: 13.75 million

C.Samuel: 13.4 million

Kupp: 13 million

Adams: 12.7 million.

Evans: 12.25 million

Thielen: 11.6 million

 

 

Utter bull####.

 

No player gives a crap about what he made this year only. They're not that dumb. It's what he makes per year over the length of time he's under contract. No person who earned $10K in 2019, $10K in 2020 and $200K in 2021 will be happy if he's worth $100K per year. It's the overall value per year. Yeah, recency bias affects us. Not enough to make us that stupid.

 

But overall he's paid quite a bit less than he's worth.

 

He's 17th. In AAV. Which (assuming the player plays the whole contract as Diggs will) is what matters.

Edited February 21, 2022 by Thurman#1