What is your "Win Now" off-season scenario?

[BarleyNY]

19 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

1- Trade pick 25 and the 2023 1st round pick for DK Metcalf. The Bills without Cole and Mac in this scenario could use more fire power. Metcalf would allow the Bills to move Diggs to the slot and have another dynamic weapon for Josh. It would cost the Bills in the future but for Seattle the return on DK is solid a late 1st this year and another future 1st in their back pocket allows them flexibility going into a 2023 draft that is more than likely to have better QB's. This scenario opens up if the Seahwaks trade Wilson and go full rebuild. Hard to pass up two firsts and not have to give an extension. 

 

That would be a big overpay for Metcalf.  He’s on the last year of his rookie deal and contract parameters are a major factor in any trade.  You’re proposing two firsts for a one year WR rental.  See the Diggs trade for better parameters and keep in mind that Diggs is a better WR and was on a long term, very reasonable contract.  If we were to trade for him the cost would be less than that and a new contract would have to be agreed upon prior to the trade. 

[Albwan]

Find an Aaron Donald.

[Solomon Grundy]

20 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

1- Restructure everyone eligible outside of Haack, Star and Mongo. This would get the Bills to 26.7 million in cap space. 

2- Cut Mongo (Assuming he won't take a pay cut), Haack, Cole Beasley and post June 1st cut Star. This would get the Bills to 41.5 million in cap space. 

3- Resign Bates, Levi Wallace, Phillips, T.Jones, Ike (assuming he takes a non-guaranteed deal), and Zimmer. Backloading Phillips and Levi's deal that would take you down to about 25 million in cap space. 

4- I would also mull over an Edumonds extension to lower his cap hit a few million as a margin for error in this scenario. 

This^^^. In the draft, I’d try to trade 25 to move down high in 2nd rd and acquire another low 3rd/high 4th rounder. From there I’m going like this:

2a) Breece Hall-RB (traded pick)

2b) Travis Jones-DT (Bills original pick)

3) Alec Pierce-WR (Bills pick)

3/4) Best interior offensive lineman (traded pick)

4) Juanyeh Thomas-DB (Bills pick)

5) Jelani Woods-TE

6) Matt Araiza-P

 

I’d then try to lure Calais Campbell to Buffalo for DL depth and Rousseau development. Resign Jerry Hughes if I can’t get Chandler Jones on a team friendly deal.

 

57 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

That would be a big overpay for Metcalf.  He’s on the last year of his rookie deal and contract parameters are a major factor in any trade.  You’re proposing two firsts for a one year WR rental.  See the Diggs trade for better parameters and keep in mind that Diggs is a better WR and was on a long term, very reasonable contract.  If we were to trade for him the cost would be less than that and a new contract would have to be agreed upon prior to the trade. 

Metcalf displayed a diva disposition in Seattle last season. I’m waiting to see Alec Pierce 40 time at combine 

[Solomon Grundy]

20 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

- I wouldn't pay Calais Campbell that much.........he'd be a nice addition but he is not a playmaker anymore.........more of a run defense addition.

This is a big need for this team, don’t you think? Would also help in the development of Rousseau 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1. Trade Edmunds for a #2 and a # 5 in 2022. Doubt you can get a #1 but someone will pay a #2

2. Sign Phillips and Hughes

3. Cut Jones, Haack, Gilliam, Ford, Star, Feliciano, Kumerow, and Addison

4. Sign one of the top guards to a 3 yr deal

5. Sign a veteran middle tier CB

6. Draft DT, CB, Edge, LB  in the first 100 picks

7. 4th round take C/G

8. 5th round take best punter in the draft

9. Trade all the rest of the picks away for picks in next years draft

10. Restructure Williams, Matakevich

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Einstein's Dog said:

And it goes the other way on the misconception of Knox salary.  A Hooper ($10M), R Tonyan (spotrac est $10.8M), and J Smith ($12M) all didn't go over 500 yards. Market data is out there, with more to come- R Tonyan and D Schultz are FAs this year. Last year Hunter/J Smith got $12M, Goedert $14M.

 

Beane and Co need to factor in a market rate TE so we can continue to have a top notch offense. Prices don't drop. One advantage to drafting and developing is extending and paying market rates a year early. You do that with Knox.

 

Knox offers continuity, upside, culture fit, and the odds on favorite to be the best TE the Bills have ever had.  It boggles my mind that some people don't even want to pay him the market rate.

 

Oh I think that it's pretty well set in stone that a promising young TE is going to make $10M on the open market...........no misconception there.........the question is whether Knox deserves to be considered one of those guys.

 

I let him play out his deal.........and here is why.

 

Knox barely reaches the level statistically..........remember, while a guy like Tonyan had less than 600 yards in his breakout season he also had a near 90% completion rate when thrown to..........which is astronomically higher than the likelihood of completing a pass to the inconsistent(but improving) Knox.    Schultz had an 800 yard season so that's not really a comp at this point,  he's reached a higher level.

 

As for the overpays in UFA last year...........this was often the case with WR's when there was a dearth of them in the mid 2010's as well...........but since then there has been a huge influx of young WR's.    

 

This years draft is LOADED at TE..........there are already more good TE's in the league than ever before and it appears to be a position where supply is very much on the rise.  

 

Personally,   I'd love to see the Bills sign Gronk to a 1 year $8M deal(with maybe $2M of that deferred) and run a lot of 12 personnel this season..........I love their explosiveness from 12.

 

But I'd also draft a TE in the middle rounds and let Knox play out his deal and THEN sign him if he actually elevates his game a bunch.........if he does not,   then you have a talented young TE in development in the fold.  

 

That's life as a contender.........you can't expect to re-sign everyone to long term deals...........the fact that Knox is among the best TE's the Bills have had doesn't matter much in the context of a league where there are MANY better one's.

 

[BADOLBILZ]

5 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

1. Trade Edmunds for a #2 and a # 5 in 2022. Doubt you can get a #1 but someone will pay a #2

2. Sign Phillips and Hughes

3. Cut Jones, Haack, Gilliam, Ford, Star, Feliciano, Kumerow, and Addison

4. Sign one of the top guards to a 3 yr deal

5. Sign a veteran middle tier CB

6. Draft DT, CB, Edge, LB  in the first 100 picks

7. 4th round take C/G

8. 5th round take best punter in the draft

9. Trade all the rest of the picks away for picks in next years draft

10. Restructure Williams, Matakevich

 

 

I just can't see anyone paying $13M for a 1 year rental on a MLB and giving up a second round pick to do it..............again,  it only takes one team..........but it doesn't make any sense.    We'd be mortified if the Bills traded a second round pick for a $13M rental middle-of-league guard or RB on a 1 year deal..........this is the equivalent.

 

I like @MrEpsYtown suggestion of maybe getting someone like Washington to trade Montez Sweat to Buffalo for Edmunds.   Sweat is coming off a down year and has a big 5th year option decision coming this offseason.    I think you'd probably still have to throw in more than Edmunds to get it done........but that is the kind of deal where you might get potential value in swapping distressed or devalued-by-contract-status assets.

 

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

9 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I just can't see anyone paying $13M for a 1 year rental on a MLB and giving up a second round pick to do it..............again,  it only takes one team..........but it doesn't make any sense.    We'd be mortified if the Bills traded a second round pick for a $13M rental middle-of-league guard or RB on a 1 year deal..........this is the equivalent.

 

I like @MrEpsYtown suggestion of maybe getting someone like Washington to trade Montez Sweat to Buffalo for Edmunds.   Sweat is coming off a down year and has a big 5th year option decision coming this offseason.    I think you'd probably still have to throw in more than Edmunds to get it done........but that is the kind of deal where you might get potential value in swapping distressed or devalued-by-contract-status assets.

 

 

Why is it a 1 yr rental? The team at trades for him can extend him or at a minimum tag him for two more years.

[BADOLBILZ]

8 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Why is it a 1 yr rental? The team at trades for him can extend him or at a minimum tag him for two more years.

 

It's a matter of team control.    Without it, trade value is greatly diminished.

 

If the Bills traded a #2 for a middle of league starting Guard or RB they could ALSO extend them...........being able to extend them if you desire does not make them value added it makes them like any NFL player on an expiring contract.    

 

You are not an Edmunds fan...........do you not think that a similar level of player will become available in free agency over the next two offseasons?    MLB's hit UFA all the time.........it's a position teams that don't have a lot of cap room compromise on all the time.   

[Einstein's Dog]

11 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Oh I think that it's pretty well set in stone that a promising young TE is going to make $10M on the open market...........no misconception there.........the question is whether Knox deserves to be considered one of those guys.

 

I let him play out his deal.........and here is why.

 

Knox barely reaches the level statistically..........remember, while a guy like Tonyan had less than 600 yards in his breakout season he also had a near 90% completion rate when thrown to..........which is astronomically higher than the likelihood of completing a pass to the inconsistent(but improving) Knox.    Schultz had an 800 yard season so that's not really a comp at this point,  he's reached a higher level.

 

As for the overpays in UFA last year...........this was often the case with WR's when there was a dearth of them in the mid 2010's as well...........but since then there has been a huge influx of young WR's.    

 

This years draft is LOADED at TE..........there are already more good TE's in the league than ever before and it appears to be a position where supply is very much on the rise.  

 

Personally,   I'd love to see the Bills sign Gronk to a 1 year $8M deal(with maybe $2M of that deferred) and run a lot of 12 personnel this season..........I love their explosiveness from 12.

 

But I'd also draft a TE in the middle rounds and let Knox play out his deal and THEN sign him if he actually elevates his game a bunch.........if he does not,   then you have a talented young TE in development in the fold.  

 

That's life as a contender.........you can't expect to re-sign everyone to long term deals...........the fact that Knox is among the best TE's the Bills have had doesn't matter much in the context of a league where there are MANY better one's.

 

We agree on a lot, but where we differ is on Knox, I think he is a keeper.  IMO, Knox is certainly on the Tonyan/Schultz/J Smith level.  And if you don't sign Knox you're going down a treachorous road.  The bandaids of Gronk or Ertz are not the long term solution.  And going into the full blown free agency market for a TE will get ugly.  I want the long term offensive team composition to include Knox and someone else.  Don't lose Knox, sign him early.

 

I'm with you on Gronk.  I would love to see it.  TE2 is a deficiency.  I rate Gronk over Ertz because of blocking.

 

I also agree on drafting a TE.  But it generally takes TEs time to develop.  The drafted TE would be more of a replacement for Gronk than Knox.

 

And yes, the fact that Knox is already among the best TEs the Bills have had shouldn't matter from a financial perspective.  But from a fans perspective I like it.  And Knox is kind of a poster child for some of the things the FO has been saying - build from within, pay your own, culture. Plus he is improving, getting better, not only does the market generally go up every year, Knox's trajectory has been strongly rising.  Lock him up early!

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Einstein's Dog said:

We agree on a lot, but where we differ is on Knox, I think he is a keeper.  IMO, Knox is certainly on the Tonyan/Schultz/J Smith level.  And if you don't sign Knox you're going down a treachorous road.  The bandaids of Gronk or Ertz are not the long term solution.  And going into the full blown free agency market for a TE will get ugly.  I want the long term offensive team composition to include Knox and someone else.  Don't lose Knox, sign him early.

 

I'm with you on Gronk.  I would love to see it.  TE2 is a deficiency.  I rate Gronk over Ertz because of blocking.

 

I also agree on drafting a TE.  But it generally takes TEs time to develop.  The drafted TE would be more of a replacement for Gronk than Knox.

 

And yes, the fact that Knox is already among the best TEs the Bills have had shouldn't matter from a financial perspective.  But from a fans perspective I like it.  And Knox is kind of a poster child for some of the things the FO has been saying - build from within, pay your own, culture. Plus he is improving, getting better, not only does the market generally go up every year, Knox's trajectory has been strongly rising.  Lock him up early!

 

 

Yeah I didn't have a problem with extending White, Dawkins or even Milano...........but Knox is certainly not on their level of accomplishment at the time.........as maybe the 14th-18th best starting TE in the league he's closer to replacement level than any of those players were.

 

Based on his modest career trajectory it wouldn't surprise if his ceiling was as a nice journeyman like Jared Cook......who has been a free agent 5 times now........we still don't know and can't be hung up on the fact that his numbers are good relative to past TE's in Buffalo.......it would be a problem if he floundered and they had to eat $20M in dead cap to get rid of him in a couple years.

 

I also really like the idea of making such an inconsistent player continue to work and develop elite habits to earn that big contract rather than handing it out speculatively and prematurely for fear of having to spend more if he becomes a top 5-10 TE.    If striving for excellence becomes ingrained you are more likely to get that from that previously enigmatic player in their second contract, IMO.   Human nature.

 

And fwiw.......Gronk would not be a TE2 in Buffalo unless Knox made a very big improvement..........Gronk was still a much better receiver than Knox in 2021 and of course he's a giant compared to Knox in the blocking aspect.........but in 12 personnel ranking wouldn't be as big of an issue.

 

 

Edited February 20, 2022 by BADOLBILZ

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

It's a matter of team control.    Without it, trade value is greatly diminished.

 

If the Bills traded a #2 for a middle of league starting Guard or RB they could ALSO extend them...........being able to extend them if you desire does not make them value added it makes them like any NFL player on an expiring contract.    

 

You are not an Edmunds fan...........do you not think that a similar level of player will become available in free agency over the next two offseasons?    MLB's hit UFA all the time.........it's a position teams that don't have a lot of cap room compromise on all the time.   

Seattle traded for Jamal Adams. Gave up a ransom for him and then extended him. Teams do this all the time. Usually with an understanding with the player/agent that they will extend them before the trade is made. Dallas with Amari Cooper is another example.

I want to rid the Bills of Edmunds and his contract. Klein and a top 100 rookie pick can do what Edmunds has done for the last four years. 

[BADOLBILZ]

9 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Seattle traded for Jamal Adams. Gave up a ransom for him and then extended him. Teams do this all the time. Usually with an understanding with the player/agent that they will extend them before the trade is made. Dallas with Amari Cooper is another example.

I want to rid the Bills of Edmunds and his contract. Klein and a top 100 rookie pick can do what Edmunds has done for the last four years. 

 

 

Teams really don't trade 2 first rounders for a safety "all the time"...........that was a very rare and regrettable move.     But they did it because Adams was a big play machine and first team All-Pro who fit their system.

 

Cooper was a 2 time 1,000 yard receiver at a premium position that, at the time, was bereft of talent around the league.   That trade is very different from the Adams deal.

 

Edmunds is not a star, we know this and his lack of Pro Bowl voting support indicates that the rest of the league knows it now too.........he's become a middle of the league starting MLB.........who almost impossibly manages to not make plays on the QB or the football.........and has an onerous cap number.

 

DeVondre Campbell.........an actual All Pro........is bound for free agency and projected to sign a $7M aav deal........there are always good MLB's on the market so trading them for valued picks is not going to be easy.    

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

14 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Seattle traded for Jamal Adams. Gave up a ransom for him and then extended him. Teams do this all the time. Usually with an understanding with the player/agent that they will extend them before the trade is made. Dallas with Amari Cooper is another example.

I want to rid the Bills of Edmunds and his contract. Klein and a top 100 rookie pick can do what Edmunds has done for the last four years. 

 

Trading Edmunds doesn't make any sense from the Bills perspective. His 12.7mm active cap hit would turn into 12.7mm dead cap hit. No savings at all. 

 

I don't like Edmunds and wish we hadn't picked up the 5th year option, but we're stuck with him for next season. 

 

For OP my pie in the sky scenario is signing Chris Godwin. 

 

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

10 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

Trading Edmunds doesn't make any sense from the Bills perspective. His 12.7mm active cap hit would turn into 12.7mm dead cap hit. No savings at all. 

 

I don't like Edmunds and wish we hadn't picked up the 5th year option, but we're stuck with him for next season. 

 

For OP my pie in the sky scenario is signing Chris Godwin. 

 

 

 

 

 

His $12.7M cap hit would transfer entirely to the acquiring team...........there is no unamortized signing bonus or roster bonus etc...........its all just guaranteed base salary.

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

On 2/19/2022 at 1:57 PM, HappyDays said:

1) Trade our 1st for Danielle Hunter.

 

2) Trade Edmunds for a 2nd and sign De'Vondre Campbell to be his replacement.

 

3) Package both 2nds to trade back up into the 1st and draft the best CB remaining.

 

4) Sign OBJ with the understanding that he will not be available until the playoffs.

 

5) Spend one of our remaining picks on a speedy slot receiver.

man, it bugs me enough when people say we should draft the best (insert position here) 

 

Now you’re saying trade up and you still won’t name a prospect?

 

you’re really throwing best player available out the window and trading up for a position

[Doc Brown]

52 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Yeah I didn't have a problem with extending White, Dawkins or even Milano...........but Knox is certainly not on their level of accomplishment at the time.........as maybe the 14th-18th best starting TE in the league he's closer to replacement level than any of those players were.

Knox may be a player that you need to take a leap of faith with now as he has the potential to be a top five tight end.  His traits and measurable are elite which is why he was a third round pick despite him being relatively new to the position and having little college production.  TE is pry the position it takes the longest to develop in.  He played better at the end of 2020 and arguably was the most improved player on the team last season.  I expect another leap next year.  Try to extend him on a three year contract for 28 million or so before he has a monster season pricing you out for him next year.

[LABILLBACKER]

Love the idea of landing DeVondre Campbell before NE or the Jets grab him. We're never getting a 2nd for Edmunds but I'd definitely settle for a 3rd & 5th in a heartbeat.  If you're going to waste 12.7 on Edmunds you sure as hell can pay Knox a decent market value deal. There's no way Josh allows him to leave. Too much chemistry and besides Dawson's rise happened in year 3, just like JA17.  Draft Dulcich in the 5th. Solid hands TE2.  I think the key this offseason will be what we do at CB & 1T?

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

1. Find out who takes the payoffs at the NFLRA.

2. "Giff those mehn their MAH-nee!"

 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

52 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

His $12.7M cap hit would transfer entirely to the acquiring team...........there is no unamortized signing bonus or roster bonus etc...........its all just guaranteed base salary.

 

Spotrac shows 12.7mm dead cap if we cut Edmunds even though his cap is 100% base salary. I always thought being traded vs being cut would have the same dead cap hit. Is it different in this case?