What is your "Win Now" off-season scenario?

[BADOLBILZ]

29 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Knox may be a player that you need to take a leap of faith with now as he has the potential to be a top five tight end.  His traits and measurable are elite which is why he was a third round pick despite him being relatively new to the position and having little college production.  TE is pry the position it takes the longest to develop in.  He played better at the end of 2020 and arguably was the most improved player on the team last season.  I expect another leap next year.  Try to extend him on a three year contract for 28 million or so before he has a monster season pricing you out for him next year.

 

I get that perspective...........I've defended him pointing out his high end speed, etc............so while I wouldn't kill Beane for a speculative extension like that......... I'm still not confident that he is going to take a leap from middle of league starter, 500 yard TE..........to a perennial 800-1200 yard "top 5" kinda' guy.

 

That's a significant leap.

 

Until you've done it........you ain't it.........and with Josh Allen at QB I suspect they wouldn't have much problem finding another 500-600 yard TE from year to year.

 

Same goes for Davis..........he had a huge game in KC but he also had that 3-14 target game and that game sealing drop in Jacksonville etc...........consistency has been lacking with both of these guys.

 

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Until you've done it........you ain't it.........and with Josh Allen at QB I suspect they wouldn't have much problem finding another 500-600 yard TE from year to year.

 

The yardage maybe, but good luck finding another TE with a comparable red zone skill set. 9 receiving TDs from that position (plus 2 in the playoffs) isn't easily replaced.

[BADOLBILZ]

27 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

Spotrac shows 12.7mm dead cap if we cut Edmunds even though his cap is 100% base salary. I always thought being traded vs being cut would have the same dead cap hit. Is it different in this case?

 

Yes,  the other team has to pay his base salary if they trade for him..........that part is generally the case with all trades.

 

If you cut him,  and he is subject to waivers(as Edmunds would be) then if he clears waivers you are on the hook for all of his guaranteed base salary(which is ALL of it in Edmunds case).

 

If released and then he is CLAIMED on waivers,  then the acquiring team has to pay his base salary.

 

His deal is slightly unusual because it's all guaranteed base salary...........that's the deal with 5th year options.

 

Normally if you trade a player there is some kind of dead cap hit because signing bonuses were involved in the creation of that contract they are on and that portion of the contract is spread out evenly over the length of the deal and then has to be accounted for all at once if cut or traded.

 

The 5th year option is a stand-alone 1 year deal with no real accounting shenanigans.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

Trading Edmunds doesn't make any sense from the Bills perspective. His 12.7mm active cap hit would turn into 12.7mm dead cap hit. No savings at all. 

 

I don't like Edmunds and wish we hadn't picked up the 5th year option, but we're stuck with him for next season. 

 

For OP my pie in the sky scenario is signing Chris Godwin. 

 

 

 

That's not correct. There is no dead cap hit if you trade him. 

 

As for the other posts, I agree he his not going to get the return Adams or Cooper got. But he would easily fetch a 2nd round pick. 

 

All that said he isn't going to be traded. Beane and McD will not admit their mistake.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

Knox may be a player that you need to take a leap of faith with now as he has the potential to be a top five tight end.  His traits and measurable are elite which is why he was a third round pick despite him being relatively new to the position and having little college production.  TE is pry the position it takes the longest to develop in.  He played better at the end of 2020 and arguably was the most improved player on the team last season.  I expect another leap next year.  Try to extend him on a three year contract for 28 million or so before he has a monster season pricing you out for him next year.

Agree. He is best TE since Bills were in the AFL. You can't replace him with a rookie. Too many other issues to deal with.  And a veteran will not be cheap. He is a top 15 talent that will cost top 5 money to keep. That is just how it works. If he was targeted more he would have top 5 stats.  Just like they invested in Taron Johnson you have to extend Knox. Diggs, Knox, Davis, and whoever replaces Beasley this year or next will be your core pass catchers 

[BADOLBILZ]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The yardage maybe, but good luck finding another TE with a comparable red zone skill set. 9 receiving TDs from that position (plus 2 in the playoffs) isn't easily replaced.

 

Jared Cook has been a free agent 5 times in his career and has had 6-7 seasons of more yardage than Knox career high despite changing teams over and over.......and he also a 9 TD season himself.    We aren't talking about rarified production from Knox by ANY stretch of the imagination.

 

And how much credit to assign Knox for RZ TD's is a tricky question............take the first one in the WC against NE...........Allen bought 10 seconds, which was more time than any QB has had before throwing a TD pass in many years in the NFL..........the second one was a flip after another broken play caused by Allen.    If Knox were running crisp routes and catching back shoulder TD passes from a pocket passer like Drew Brees.........then maybe the idea that he is a master of the RZ carries more weight, IMO.    

[HappyDays]

8 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

And how much credit to assign Knox for RZ TD's is a tricky question............take the first one in the WC against NE...........Allen bought 10 seconds, which was more time than any QB has had before throwing a TD pass in many years in the NFL..........the second one was a flip after another broken play caused by Allen.    If Knox were running crisp routes and catching back shoulder TD passes from a pocket passer like Drew Brees.........then maybe the idea that he is a master of the RZ carries more weight, IMO.    

 

Knox's athleticism is clearly an advantage in the RZ even without looking at his stats there. Not many TEs can run those TE sweeps that he scores on a few times a season. I don't think it's a coincidence that after his injury we struggled to put up points against the Dolphins and Jags. We lost our best RZ weapon. Also I'm pretty sure Knox ended the season with the best passer rating when targeted, and that's of all players regardless of position. I agree that he has been inconsistent especially between the 20s. But I lean towards paying him because he creates big plays and TDs. It's the same reason I was happy to pay a similarly inconsistent player in Taron Johnson. When in doubt pay the players that create game changing plays.

[BADOLBILZ]

12 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Agree. He is best TE since Bills were in the AFL. 

 

Subjective and really meaningless with regard to his future value.

16 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

 Too many other issues to deal with.  

 

Diggs, Knox, Davis, and whoever replaces Beasley this year or next will be your core pass catchers 

 

These two sentences say a lot right here...........it's not the early 1990's again..........get used to dealing with a lot of roster issues EVERY year.

 

 When the Patriots went to 3 straight SB's most recently I believe they had only 10-12 players on the roster in the 3rd one that had been with the team for the 1st one.    

 

You don't just sign guys and forget about that position for 3-5 years after you've paid your QB..........you are going to lose a lot of players in free agency when you win..........you can't sign them all.......not even if you save $1M-$4M per year in aav over market.........and even if they are a seemingly ascending middle of the league starter that seems generational to you because you are used to sucking at that position.

[BADOLBILZ]

15 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Knox's athleticism is clearly an advantage in the RZ even without looking at his stats there. Not many TEs can run those TE sweeps that he scores on a few times a season. I don't think it's a coincidence that after his injury we struggled to put up points against the Dolphins and Jags. We lost our best RZ weapon. Also I'm pretty sure Knox ended the season with the best passer rating when targeted, and that's of all players regardless of position. I agree that he has been inconsistent especially between the 20s. But I lean towards paying him because he creates big plays and TDs. It's the same reason I was happy to pay a similarly inconsistent player in Taron Johnson. When in doubt pay the players that create game changing plays.

 

 

I lean towards paying him too..........just not enough that I am worrying about budgeting for it this offseason.     I didn't care for the Taron Johnson extension but that was a different story,  he was a pending UFA in the final games of his contract.   Knox is not.  

 

I prefer the idea of going balls out to win this year.........while also drafting a mid-round TE in a deep class.........then seeing where Knox stands at midseason next year and what they think of the young guy as a successor.

 

You aren't going to be able to pay everyone.    Priority to me is Allen, OL and WR.........then TE.   It might just not be a position they can afford to have a $10M-$18M aav player at long term.    

[Doc Brown]

54 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I get that perspective...........I've defended him pointing out his high end speed, etc............so while I wouldn't kill Beane for a speculative extension like that......... I'm still not confident that he is going to take a leap from middle of league starter, 500 yard TE..........to a perennial 800-1200 yard "top 5" kinda' guy.

 

That's a significant leap.

 

Until you've done it........you ain't it.........and with Josh Allen at QB I suspect they wouldn't have much problem finding another 500-600 yard TE from year to year.

 

Same goes for Davis..........he had a huge game in KC but he also had that 3-14 target game and that game sealing drop in Jacksonville etc...........consistency has been lacking with both of these guys.

 

I get that perspective too which is why I don't envy Beane.  I don't even know if Knox would agree to a Logan Thomas type contract at this point.  Maybe a mid year extension makes more sense after we see him in Dorsey's offense.  

[BADOLBILZ]

2 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

I get that perspective too which is why I don't envy Beane.  I don't even know if Knox would agree to a Logan Thomas type contract at this point.  Maybe a mid year extension makes more sense after we see him in Dorsey's offense.  

 

The highlighted is what I had in mind.

 

I think Beane knows that the offense they ended the season playing isn't something they can do for 20-21 games per season...........Allen was taking a beating.

 

They need to be more of a precision passing offense from the pocket during the regular season..........so if they bolster the OL and Knox comes out and looks like a guy who can dominate in an offense where the QB is getting the ball out more on time.........like most offenses have to..........then we will have a better idea where he stands relative to the better TE's in football.

 

All else fails.........the franchise tag for TE's in 2021 was a relatively paltry $9.6M......it will be higher in 2023 but still probably no more than they are paying Edmunds in 2022.    

[Doc Brown]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

They need to be more of a precision passing offense from the pocket during the regular season..........so if they bolster the OL and Knox comes out and looks like a guy who can dominate in an offense where the QB is getting the ball out more on time.........like most offenses have to..........then we will have a better idea where he stands relative to the better TE's in football.

 

All else fails.........the franchise tag for TE's in 2021 was a relatively paltry $9.6M......it will be higher in 2023 but still probably no more than they are paying Edmunds in 2022.    

You successfully talked me out of a position which rarely happens.  I didn't know the franchise tag was that low for TE's.  Beane hasn't used the franchise tag yet but Knox could be the exception if all else fails. 

[Mr. WEO]

On 2/19/2022 at 2:53 PM, Mark92 said:

They won't do it.  Beane has built this thing from the ground up and I think he would be happier being a playoff team every season over winning one super bowl and then being fired in 5 years.  It's a pipe dream.  They will make moves but nothing earth shattering.  They are close and they know it.  

 

 

What??  Then fire him now.  Or let him go work for the Steelers.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

8 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Or…they could’ve just held the Chiefs receivers at the line of scrimmage in the last thirteen seconds, without a single roster move. 😉

 

That too, but we still need speed size

 

 

[Einstein's Dog]

16 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

You successfully talked me out of a position which rarely happens.  I didn't know the franchise tag was that low for TE's.  Beane hasn't used the franchise tag yet but Knox could be the exception if all else fails. 

Don't fall for it.  Big mistake to let Knox test free agency.

First, the tag will be no where near $9M, Gesicki was fighting to not be classified as a TE to avoid the >11M franchise tag, and it will continue going up rapidly.  Godert just got over $14M, J Smith and H Henry got $12M last year.  This year they'll add Gesicki/Schultz/ and Tonyan.

Second, it should be an objective to  surround Josh with weapons, and to keep some consistency - this offense is humming and getting better and Knox is part of that.  

Third, you will have to pay to get another TE.  You can't just have rookies at this position.  Some mid one like Rudolph is $6M.

 

You sign  Knox at his market rate a year early.  That's one advantage of drafting and developing a player.  You give him Tonyan money in a multi-year deal.  Initially it will seem like a lot, but people will be saying the same things they  are about Josh's contract in two years.

 

The Bills need to budget around the decent deal they'll give/get with Knox.  If necessary the FO could allot less to the WR room.  Replace Sanders with draft pick Davis, replace Beas w McKenzie and start working in a draft pick.  It seems easier to me to draft and put in a WR than a TE.

[Alphadawg7]

I’m confused.  Why are the Seahawks trading DK Metcalf?  I mean he is still on a rookie deal, is a stud for them, and they need more playmakers not less for Russ.  

So if Russ is staying in Seattle, why would Seattle trade one of their 3 best players who still has another year on his rookie deal and isn’t a cap issue right now?

 

Cant see them moving him unless they trade Russ and go all in on a rebuild.  

[BADOLBILZ]

7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I’m confused.  Why are the Seahawks trading DK Metcalf?  I mean he is still on a rookie deal, is a stud for them, and they need more playmakers not less for Russ.  

So if Russ is staying in Seattle, why would Seattle trade one of their 3 best players who still has another year on his rookie deal and isn’t a cap issue right now?

 

Cant see them moving him unless they trade Russ and go all in on a rebuild.  

 

 

Well........they stink for one thing.

 

And their division may contain the 3 most talented teams in the entire NFC in 2022 for another.

 

WR rooms are starting to brim with talent now and there seems to be no end in sight in recent drafts.........and they already have a big $ WR1 under contract and perhaps want to set their sights on re-setting their salary cap and fielding a competitor in 2023 and want draft capital for the re-set.

 

I'd bet against them being able to do that.........but they did build the "Legion of Boom" teams on a foundation of prior mediocrity rather than a full tank job.

[Mark92]

19 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

What??  Then fire him now.  Or let him go work for the Steelers.

Stability is also job security.  Yes he wants to bring a Super Bowl to Buffalo but he also wants to remain the GM here.  One Super Bowl and then missing the playoffs for 4/5 years isn't a tradeoff Beane will do.  

[Mr. WEO]

5 minutes ago, Mark92 said:

Stability is also job security.  Yes he wants to bring a Super Bowl to Buffalo but he also wants to remain the GM here.  One Super Bowl and then missing the playoffs for 4/5 years isn't a tradeoff Beane will do.  

 

No GM thinks this way.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Well........they stink for one thing.

 

And their division may contain the 3 most talented teams in the entire NFC in 2022 for another.

 

WR rooms are starting to brim with talent now and there seems to be no end in sight in recent drafts.........and they already have a big $ WR1 under contract and perhaps want to set their sights on re-setting their salary cap and fielding a competitor in 2023 and want draft capital for the re-set.

 

I'd bet against them being able to do that.........but they did build the "Legion of Boom" teams on a foundation of prior mediocrity rather than a full tank job.

But they don’t have to even make that decision this year.  DK makes peanuts next season, they are under no cap pressure to get rid of him and yet he’s easily one of their 3 best players.  
 

Trading DK makes no sense what so ever unless they are giving up on the season for a full rebuild and trading Russ.  
 

There is just no way they keep Russ and then trade DK.  Russ isn’t staying in Seattle to start a rebuild by trading off young cheap talent that are vital to his own performance.  
 

If Seattle sticks with Wilson, which all indications thus far is they are, it’s to be competitive and try and retool.  Seattle is not that far behind in that division. If they can improve the OL and get some defensive upgrades this off-season, then with a healthy Russ they can challenge again for the divisional title.