2022 Offseason Primer Position Group: Quarterback (WE HAVE OUR FRANCHISE!!!)

[MAJBobby]

On to probably the easiest one to write which is good seeing it is the most important position on the field. So as a formality to make sure I hit all Position Groups we are  On to QB.  I think I will do the OL next.

 

The standard disclaimer.

I use SPOTRAC for my salary information, I know more like OTC, so numbers might be a little different I just prefer SPOTRAC more.   I also use profootball reference for the stats.

 

So here we go…

 

Bills CAP Space: Top 51 = -1.330M Yep Still negative. 

 

Quarterback – 1 player on contact taking up 7.78% of CAP, 20th highest in the NFL.

 

Free Agents

 

UFA

Mitchell Trubisky – 27 years old, Cap hit in 2021 – 2.5M – Before I start the writeup on him which will be minimum actually I will say if I can get him back right around the same Cap hit of 2.5 – 3.0M AAV I would be all over that, though this signing would be likely after the draft and He didn’t get a contract in the first stages of UFA.  Not much in terms of numbers, but that is what I want to see from the BU QB, low meaningful numbers but he did take the Victory Formation Snaps well when he was in for those.  I personally thinks he comes back looking at the UFA list of his tier QBs, and the possible movements of Starting QBs to other teams.

 

On Contract

 

Josh Allen, age 26, 7.78%% of cap, 16.372MM cap hit (No Savings) – Even though I said there is no savings, there could be a couple Mil (2.4M roughly with a simple restructure), with that said I would not do it (Next year is the first real year to do that with, very similar to Mahome’s contract).  His numbers Highest in his career in attempts at 646, with a 63.3% completion %.  4407 yards, 36 passing TDs and 15 Picks and a 92.2 rating.  26 sacks (tied last year for lowest in career).  Added another 763 yards running and 6 TDs.  8 fumbles (lowest in his career).  So, all those numbers are very good for him, and I think this shows that 2020 is not a fluke and we can sit there and be happy to know we have our franchise QB for the next Decade plus.  I could write on and on about Josh with the accolades, but I wanted to focus on what he still needs to improve.  Zone play I think still can be improved on; I think there was some issues that popped up with the number of Cover-2 shells he saw.  That area is still an area I think he needs to improve but did a much better job this year at taking what the Defense gives him.  Finally, as he mentioned in his end of year learning how to slide a bit more.  This is all great that our QB is self-aware enough to know where he still needs work and I fully expect him to put the work again this offseason with Palmer to get there.  One thing I will also say when it comes to the weapons on the Bills I would fully hope Beane and Dorsey and Company come to Josh to just get his thoughts, not that Josh is making the decision but I would hope they would seek his input. 

 

Notable UFAs – This list is actually quit long, there are a lot of veteran QBs, that will fit in the range of pay that I would give a BU (in the 3M max pre year range).  I will list those that I think will be a good teacher and BU.

 

Brandon Allen, age 29, Cincy

Ryan Fitzpatrick, age 39, Washington

Andy Dalton, age 34, Chicago

 

I am not addressing the BU QB until after the Draft IMO.  Let the UFA stupid season do its thing, get to the draft (ideally find the BU there) and worst case if you need to grab a Veteran after the draft there will be a lot of them there sitting in the range that should be spent on a BU QB at this point.  I possibly COULD see the Bills going a bit higher here on a 1-year deal, but ideally, we start those BUs being on rookie contracts when the real money kicks in with Josh. 

 

Notable Draft Picks

 

4th round

Carson Strong, 6’3”, 226, Nevada – Had a chance to impress at Senior Bowl and move up in the rankings, but struggled at the Senior Bowl likely cementing him here and as a BU in the NFL.

 

Aqeel Glass, 6’3” 228, Alabama A&M – Big QB with powerful arm and can run, think a poor mans Allen.  Would not have to change the offense at all if he had to come into the game one he gets integrated in the offense we run.

 

5th  Round

Chris Oladuokun 6’2” 240, South Dakota State – Has the athletic ability that has really failed to flash in the smaller school all-star games, however can move and has a live arm,

 

What I would do:

 

I am not re-signing Trubisky before the draft unless I get him in the number of 2-3M AAV.  I am also not touching any QB in UFA unless we are talking in that number range (I personally wouldn’t sign any) but maybe could get that deal with a Fitz were you sign him to a couple Mil but he only counts against the cap as a league minimum.  That veteran exemption thing that the NFL has but teams really have not used that often (at least the Bills).  But I am going into the draft with only ONE QB on the roster and I will look for the BU in the draft sometime after the 3rd round.  If I cannot get one that fits the grade post draft I am brining on one of these many Veterans that will still be looking for work to back up Josh in 2022.

 

Past Writeups:

 

Defensive Line

Linebacker

Secondary

Edited February 16, 2022 by MAJBobby

[Solomon Grundy]

@MAJBobby, Glass would be a good get late in draft. 

[ColoradoBills]

Josh Allen is everything.  So, protecting him is paramount.  That means the OL is the second most important.

After that everything else can be debated.

IMO.

[StHustle]

I want Fitz back to go on what will be an amazing run next season! He deserves to finish his career here and enjoy the ride...oh and he clearly is still one of the top backups on the league in case we need him in a pinch.

[MAJBobby]

3 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

@MAJBobby, Glass would be a good get late in draft. 

I am really interested in him on these team as a BU behind Allen and maybe get in the Allen regiment of Palmer as well. Shouldn’t need to change offense at all. And with development could pull top picks in the QB trade Market. 

[Freddie's Dead]

Backup:  Fitz.  Next position....

[MAJBobby]

4 minutes ago, StHustle said:

I want Fitz back to go on what will be an amazing run next season! He deserves to finish his career here and enjoy the ride...oh and he clearly is still one of the top backups on the league in case we need him in a pinch.

That’s fine if he slots into the 2.5M range. 
 

definitely not paying 10M for a BU. 
 

so if you tell me on Day 1 of UFA he signs for 2.5M (accounting for Minimum cap hit per the veteran exemption). Sign me up. If you are saying will be over 3M then I am passing 

1 minute ago, Freddie's Dead said:

Backup:  Fitz.  Next position....

Which is fine as long as You tell me he will sign for no more than 3M. 

Edited February 16, 2022 by MAJBobby

[John from Riverside]

If Mitch walks I would def look at Brandon Allen and just offer him something to stay as the backup for a while

[MAJBobby]

2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

If Mitch walks I would def look at Brandon Allen and just offer him something to stay as the backup for a while

I am fine with that was 1.5M last year I believe so a 3 year 8M contract is fine for him. With say 5M guaranteed. 

Edited February 16, 2022 by MAJBobby

[Freddie's Dead]

3 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

That’s fine if he slots into the 2.5M range. 
 

definitely not paying 10M for a BU. 
 

so if you tell me on Day 1 of UFA he signs for 2.5M (accounting for Minimum cap hit per the veteran exemption). Sign me up. If you are saying will be over 3M then I am passing 

Which is fine as long as You tell me he will sign for no more than 3M. 

 

3M and 2-3M signing bonus.  Cheap insurance for a backup that will excel in this offense with these receivers, and a great mentor for Josh.

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, Freddie's Dead said:

 

3M and 2-3M signing bonus.  Cheap insurance for a backup that will excel in this offense with these receivers, and a great mentor for Josh.

Too much. My BU QB cap hit has to stay under 3M. So something like a 3 year 8M with 5M guaranteed is most I would go. That gets the below 3M cap hit I would aim for 

[Freddie's Dead]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

Too much. My BU QB cap hit has to stay under 3M. So something like a 3 year 8M with 5M guaranteed is most I would go. That gets the below 3M cap hit I would aim for 

 

Ralph <MAJBobby> is cheap    I'd like to spend just a little more on a good backup that could mentor Josh.

[eSJayDee]

Couple things:

I thought since Allen already signed his contract extension, IF we cut him, we've got a TREMENDOUS amount of deadcap, like $90M. (Not that I'm suggesting it )

 

Like most, I suspect Trubisky is gone. BUT, I think he'd be a bargain at 2x or even 3x his current cap figure. 

I have no reason to believe he isn't among the best backup QBs in the league & possibly even top 1/2 starter quality.  He has great physical talents.  Going rate for that quality QB is ~$1M/game (Allen's production is $2.5-$3m/game).  Given Allen's playing style & just likelihood of any QB being injured, I think that outlay is a reasonable precaution to potentially save our season in the event Allen gets hurt.

[StHustle]

16 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

That’s fine if he slots into the 2.5M range. 
 

definitely not paying 10M for a BU. 
 

so if you tell me on Day 1 of UFA he signs for 2.5M (accounting for Minimum cap hit per the veteran exemption). Sign me up. If you are saying will be over 3M then I am passing 

 

But let's be real here. With Josh's style of play, you can't let a much better BU walk over a half million dollars. Gotta be wise here. Although I do think Fitz would take whatever to come back to Buffalo if we want him.

[MAJBobby]

5 minutes ago, Freddie&#x27;s Dead said:

 

Ralph <MAJBobby> is cheap    I'd like to spend just a little more on a good backup that could mentor Josh.

That is what Palmer and Dorsey do. When you are in the land of a paid QB you cannot waste assets on a “mentor”. So tell me Fitz will play for 3M and I will say sign me up. 

3 minutes ago, StHustle said:

 

But let's be real here. With Josh's style of play, you can't let a much better BU walk over a half million dollars. Gotta be wise here. Although I do think Fitz would take whatever to come back to Buffalo if we want him.

How many games has Josh missed in the last 2 years. It is poor Cap management thinking otherwise. Without looking could you tell me who Mahomes BU was? It wasn’t Henne. We are over the cap already and have other major issues to spend the little cap we will free up before we even get to BU QB. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

3 minutes ago, Freddie&#x27;s Dead said:

 

Ralph <MAJBobby> is cheap    I'd like to spend just a little more on a good backup that could mentor Josh.

Josh really doesn't need a "mentor" in the QB room at this stage. He's a vet now. No one needs to hold his hand. I believe that's a reason the Bills didn't extend a futures deal to Davis Webb.

 

As far as backups, I'm ok with having a rookie, a Brandon Allen type and maybe even a Benkurt type (camp arm) fight it out for #2. If Josh misses extended time the season is likely circling the drain even with a higher end backup. 

 

Very worst case scenario, the Bills have a bad season and get a chance at drafting a premium player the following year on a cheap rookie deal ti add to a championship caliber roster. Not ideal, but a good consolation.

[MAJBobby]

13 minutes ago, eSJayDee said:

Couple things:

I thought since Allen already signed his contract extension, IF we cut him, we've got a TREMENDOUS amount of deadcap, like $90M. (Not that I'm suggesting it )

 

Like most, I suspect Trubisky is gone. BUT, I think he'd be a bargain at 2x or even 3x his current cap figure. 

I have no reason to believe he isn't among the best backup QBs in the league & possibly even top 1/2 starter quality.  He has great physical talents.  Going rate for that quality QB is ~$1M/game (Allen's production is $2.5-$3m/game).  Given Allen's playing style & just likelihood of any QB being injured, I think that outlay is a reasonable precaution to potentially save our season in the event Allen gets hurt.

Ok let’s say we pay 6M for a BU. You are now 7.5M over the cap. Can free up easily 26ish without major issues. so now sitting at 19M. Need get a CB2 (5-7M) before draft. So looking at 12M. Let’s say we re-sign Phillips (5M) now down too 7M in space. Take out 3M for the 1st and 2nd down to 4M in space to address a starting LG, and depth at DE, WR, TE. 
 

the money isn’t there. 

Edited February 16, 2022 by MAJBobby

[eSJayDee]

1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

 

the money isn’t there. 

The $ is there, you just showed it.  It's a choice.  And when you're expecting to make the playoffs, IMO not doing so is a gamble.

Josh Allen can win games for you. Trubisky, at the minimum, can put others in a position to win a game for you.  A Jake Fromm type you're lucky if he doesn't lose it for you.

Let's say you're paying $6m for your QB backup.  That's ~$5m over minimum wage.  That's enough to  either upgrade 1 player to "good" player or 2 to above average relative to JAG.

You're talking probability, but IMO I think losing your starting QB, at least for sometime, is quite likely.  I think the value of a good backup is greater than upgrading somewhere around the 30-35th best player(s) on your team.

I will concede it's an opinion that is based on your perceived thoughts on likelihood of losing your starting QB, the resulting impact of the downgrade at that position relative to the benefit of upgrading one or more positions some ways down your roster.

That said, this is likely a mute point as there are likely few, if any options like Trubisky available.

[eball]

2 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

I am not addressing the BU QB until after the Draft IMO.  Let the UFA stupid season do its thing, get to the draft (ideally find the BU there) and worst case if you need to grab a Veteran after the draft there will be a lot of them there sitting in the range that should be spent on a BU QB at this point.  I possibly COULD see the Bills going a bit higher here on a 1-year deal, but ideally, we start those BUs being on rookie contracts when the real money kicks in with Josh. 

 

I read this twice, wondering "who is this QB from Boston University we don't want to talk about?"

[MAJBobby]

Just now, eSJayDee said:

The $ is there, you just showed it.  It's a choice.  And when you're expecting to make the playoffs, IMO not doing so is a gamble.

Josh Allen can win games for you. Trubisky, at the minimum, can put others in a position to win a game for you.  A Jake Fromm type you're lucky if he doesn't lose it for you.

Let's say you're paying $6m for your QB backup.  That's ~$5m over minimum wage.  That's enough to  either upgrade 1 player to "good" player or 2 to above average relative to JAG.

You're talking probability, but IMO I think losing your starting QB, at least for sometime, is quite likely.  I think the value of a good backup is greater than upgrading somewhere around the 30-35th best player(s) on your team.

I will concede it's an opinion that is based on your perceived thoughts on likelihood of losing your starting QB, the resulting impact of the downgrade at that position relative to the benefit of upgrading one or more positions some ways down your roster.

That said, this is likely a mute point as there are likely few, if any options like Trubisky available.

How are you making the playoffs or Super Bowl with Cody Ford as your LG?  With Your starting CBS Cam Lewis and Dane Jackson?  
 

 

there is roughly 20 Trubiskys available this offseason. 

1 minute ago, eball said:

 

I read this twice, wondering "who is this QB from Boston University we don't want to talk about?"

I am not addressing BU (backup) QB until after the draft. That is what I mean.