2022 Offseason Primer Position Group: Defensive Line

[Brand J]

AJ didn’t test as an explosive athlete, part of the reason why he dropped out of the first round, so if the Bills had an issue with his “heavy” playing style at 280, they shouldn’t have drafted him. JK Dobbins was there and would’ve brought 4.4 speed to the backfield, which would’ve been a nice complement to Motor.

Edited February 16, 2022 by JayBaller10

[BADOLBILZ]

15 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

AJ didn’t test as an explosive athlete, part of the reason why he dropped out of the first round, so if the Bills had an issue with his “heavy” playing style at 280, they shouldn’t have drafted him. JK Dobbins was there and would’ve brought 4.4 speed to the backfield, which would’ve been a nice complement to Motor.

 

 

Nah.......RB's are pretty interchangeable........not sure why people don't get this.

 

But Dobbins was also an 800 touch college RB........that's a lot of mileage nowadays.........and like Etienne(another favorite of runnin' back lovin' Bills fans) JK Dobbins subsequently blew out a knee and didn't play in 2021.

 

Right now,  Logan Wilson is probably the guy picked soonest after Epenesa who would have been the most useful.

[Sierra Foothills]

22 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

AJ didn’t test as an explosive athlete, part of the reason why he dropped out of the first round, so if the Bills had an issue with his “heavy” playing style at 280, they shouldn’t have drafted him.

 

Agree.

 

I think it's risky business to draft a player who was successful playing a certain way and then asking him to significantly re-make himself by playing a different style.

 

I don't think there are too many successful examples of this.

[Richard Noggin]

12 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

I think if I am getting Key I would move on from Addison.  However he was the most productive DE IMO.  That is all.

To my eyes Addison's production comes at a cost: he loses contain and takes bad angles in pursuit. Obviously the Hail Murray comes to mind, but there have been other examples since. He lacks lane discipline and doesn't break down when closing in. 

[MAJBobby]

4 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

To my eyes Addison's production comes at a cost: he loses contain and takes bad angles in pursuit. Obviously the Hail Murray comes to mind, but there have been other examples since. He lacks lane discipline and doesn't break down when closing in. 

Can understand that. And Hughes has the same flaws as well. I really think Bills would want to bring one of the Two back. It probably is Hughes (if he doesn’t retire). 

8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So first off Thanks again for your writeup and all the work you put into it.

 

Just a couple of perhaps nit-picky points:

1) you focus on statistics when evaluating some of our DL - example Zim "In 6 games this year Zimmer had 1 sack, 8 tackles (2 Solo, 6 Combined) and 2TFL with 4 QB hits.  Those are not bad numbers for the playing time he had, but very replaceable and NOT worth anything more than Minimum this upcoming year.  I personally would move on. "

 

Then later on you identify Foley Fatukasi as a "prototypical 1 Tech space eater".  It's a point that the Bills (surprisingly to me) had Zimmer playing 1TDT at the start of the season and that's how he's listed on their depth chart, in which case looking at his "stats" doesn't tell the picture of whether or not he was giving the Bills what they wanted there.   I think last season, McDermott really really liked Zimmer.  He is crazy fast for a big guy and apparently crazy strong too, and has the drive to watch film both of opponents and his own, trying to improve. Two different DTs. One is a Space Eating 1Tech that would finally help keep our LBer clean. Zimmer is a 3 Tech that penetrates. I get he is a fan favorite but that production is easily replaceable. 

 

What we don't know, is what his knee injury was and what the recovery timeline might be.  Other than that he needed surgery, he must not have wanted the info out there. 

 

2) You missed Brandon Bryant as also under a "futures contract".  That said - I don't see the Bills going into the off-season with only Bryant, Ankou, Phillips, and Oliver under contract.  I can't tell you what they'll do, but for $1.5M savings, I would think they'd wait to part ways with Star unless he retires (or someone comes over with a trade offer, but we have it on "authority" here no other team in the league would pay his current salary so....And No, Ankou did not play as well as Star because he had the same "numbers" (see point above about stats not giving the picture of whether the DT is giving the Bills what they want). You can part with Star tomorrow as a post June 1 cut and save over 4M. That is what they should do wether Star forces their hand with a retirement or not. He will not play another down in Buffalo. 

 

3) Beane conspicuously did NOT mention Mario Addison as someone they might try to bring back.  He did mention being interested in Hughes "if it made sense for both sides", if Hughes wants to come back.  Now Beane does play stuff close to the vest, but he's also usually pretty honest.

 

4) I don't think Groot inside is an option.  Not in his skill set. 

Some comments bold and inline. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Can understand that. And Hughes has the same flaws as well. I really think Bills would want to bring one of the Two back. It probably is Hughes (if he doesn’t retire). 

Some comments bold and inline. 

you can put a cursor in the box and hit return a few times and it would break the box into multiples so your text can go outside and quotes normally in a reply

 

Dude, I just got through pointing out that the Bills had Zimmer playing 1T and have him on their depth chart as a 1T and you ignore that to tell us he’s a 3T.  I understand why you say that - I think it’s his natural position - but look at how the Bills are apparently seeing him

 

I also understand the fan desire to hustle Star out of the building but again, I’m trying to point out how I think Beane sees it.  Unless he retires, there’s no driver for the Bills to do that until/unless his replacement is on board

 

 

[MAJBobby]

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

you can put a cursor in the box and hit return a few times and it would break the box into multiples so your text can go outside and quotes normally in a reply

 

Dude, I just got through pointing out that the Bills had Zimmerman playing 1T and have him on their depth chart as a 1T and you ignore that to tell us he’s a 3T.  I understand why you say that - I think it’s his natural position - but look at how the Bills are apparently seeing him

 

I also understand the fan desire to hustle Star out of the building but again, I’m trying to point out how I think Beane sees it.  Unless he retires, there’s no driver for the Bills to do that until/unless his replacement is on board

 

 

I didn’t know that. About the in line and thanks for the tip. 
 

I also understand where Zimmer played. That isn’t what he is. He played 1Tech because guess what Bills don’t have 1Techs outside of Star on their starting 53. 
 

I get it. Zimmer a good story from a small school. A fan tav. And completely Replaceable if his “demands” go above a minimum contract. 
 

Star is gone. 
 

 

Edited February 16, 2022 by MAJBobby

[Hapless Bills Fan]

18 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

I'm inclined to definitely keep Zimmer if they can get him in that $1M range.

 

The team was pretty mum about Zimmer's exact injury and it happened during practice so no film analysis, but I confirmed it was announced as a "season ending ACL" before week 10.  So it's possible with the more aggressive 9 month recovery timeline, that he might be ready for training camp.  But he makes his living as a fast DT, and if he's not back to what he was (as Harry wasn't), do they want him?

 

The "good news" is a rotational/depth 29 year old is unlikely to have suitors waving FA $$ under his nose, so after looking that up, I think it's possible the Bills bring him back on a vet minimum deal, which I *think* would be as a 3rd year player.  They could IR him to start the season and have him as depth down the stretch.

 

18 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

I do expect Jordan Phillips to be released by Arizona and a 30 page thread about it,  though..........and he might be looking at a minimum deal if he doesn't get someone to bite on paying him incentives.

 

HA!  I think the BigJ9797 ship has sailed with the Bills.  IIRC one reason they didn't pay him the big bucks is that he wasn't entirely "bought in" to McDermott's defense.  He tended to pursue sacks at the expense of gap integrity in the run game.  The good news is, when he guessed correctly on the pass, he got there.  The bad news is, when he didn't guess correctly, the RB was into the 2nd level.  The snarky response would be that's better than having a guy who doesn't get there and still lets the RB into the 2nd level.

 

But we'll see.

 

18 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

I'd be interested in a Khalil Mack trade but think it would have to look like the Von Miller to the Rams trade.........multiple 2nd/3rd day picks.........not a first........and that might not incentivize Chicago to send Mack back to Buffalo.

 

In the draft for DL I am most interested in a low investment big body like Marquan MacCall or Noah Ellis on day 3 to back up Harrison Phillips.    Interested to see how Minnesota DE Boye Mafe moves up based on combine/workout numbers.  He finished the season strong and then had a big Senior Bowl so he might no longer align with where the Bills might be able to draft him on day 2 or day 3.    He would be a nice guy to add to the mix if you get a player like Miller or Mack and have him develop behind a similar physical type.

 

Key is interesting though..........he was a potential #1 overall long-term projection pick early in his days at LSU..........definitely not lacking for physical talent/traits.

 

I wish Beane would do what it takes to buy us elite pass rush talent in FA, but I think when he says "I wouldn't see us being big spenders or anything like that", it's what he means.

 

I'm unsure if it reflects Beane's philosophy or McDermott's core beliefs that "you dance with the ones that brought ya", but I "unwillingness to pursue that piece that could make a difference", especially in-season, as a potentially fatal flaw to McBeane.  Chiffs go nowhere without bringing in Melvin Ingram.  Rams don't make it without OBJ, Von Miller, and Weddle.  etc.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

I also understand where Zimmer played. That isn’t what he is. He played 1Tech because guess what Bills don’t have 1Techs outside of Star on their starting 53.

 

What's Harrison Phillips?  Chopped liver?  He ain't a 3T I promise you that, and he for-reals started at 1T last season.

 

I guess this comes down to, what perspective are you trying to take?  If you're doing a "What Bobby Would Do with the Bills in His World" piece, that's fine

If you're trying to see it how the Bills see it, and predict what they will do or should do (from the framework of how they see it), then Zimm is apparently a 1TDT

 

1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

Star is gone.

 

So we've learned from several posters, but if I were a Betting Hap unless Beane gets a trade offer, I'd bet that he's on the roster when training camp opens.

[BADOLBILZ]

34 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The team was pretty mum about Zimmer's exact injury and it happened during practice so no film analysis, but I confirmed it was announced as a "season ending ACL" before week 10.  So it's possible with the more aggressive 9 month recovery timeline, that he might be ready for training camp.  But he makes his living as a fast DT, and if he's not back to what he was (as Harry wasn't), do they want him?

 

The "good news" is a rotational/depth 29 year old is unlikely to have suitors waving FA $$ under his nose, so after looking that up, I think it's possible the Bills bring him back on a vet minimum deal, which I *think* would be as a 3rd year player.  They could IR him to start the season and have him as depth down the stretch.

 

 

HA!  I think the BigJ9797 ship has sailed with the Bills.  IIRC one reason they didn't pay him the big bucks is that he wasn't entirely "bought in" to McDermott's defense.  He tended to pursue sacks at the expense of gap integrity in the run game.  The good news is, when he guessed correctly on the pass, he got there.  The bad news is, when he didn't guess correctly, the RB was into the 2nd level.  The snarky response would be that's better than having a guy who doesn't get there and still lets the RB into the 2nd level.

 

But we'll see.

 

 

I wish Beane would do what it takes to buy us elite pass rush talent in FA, but I think when he says "I wouldn't see us being big spenders or anything like that", it's what he means.

 

I'm unsure if it reflects Beane's philosophy or McDermott's core beliefs that "you dance with the ones that brought ya", but I "unwillingness to pursue that piece that could make a difference", especially in-season, as a potentially fatal flaw to McBeane.  Chiffs go nowhere without bringing in Melvin Ingram.  Rams don't make it without OBJ, Von Miller, and Weddle.  etc.

 

 

While Beane is generally pretty forthright...........I don't think that's the case when talking about free agent pursuit.

 

Last year he said they weren't going to be able to do much and then he immediately got into JJ Watt bidding that was going to be over $10M either way and reportedly offered Gronk $8M on a 1 year deal.   And of course re-signed a bunch of his own players.

 

While Von Miller or Khalil Mack would cost more in aav,  the first year hit could be similar.     I tend to believe Schoen when he said the Bills plan to have $ to spend in UFA.  

 

His problem dates back to careless over-spending in UFA in 2018-2019 and some pay cuts and re-structures he shouldn't have done since.     That's limited his buying power..........otherwise I do think he would have got those deals done.    The Rams deal with Denver included adding extra draft pick value so Denver would eat some of his contract..........I don't think Beane wanted to do something like that.    Might have cost them a SB run though,  as you pointed out and I agree.

 

My prediction is that they pursue 1-3 of the better free agents on the market.........an OL like Andrew Norwell or maybe Gronkowski on offense..........and a CB like Donte Jackson and an actual sack producing DE on defense.

 

Three would eat up about $20M in immediate cap room on backloaded deals..........and leave them enough room to still re-sign Phillips and Bates.

 

Then they try to get a bunch of Forest Lamp lottery tickets and see what happens.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

While Beane is generally pretty forthright...........I don't think that's the case when talking about free agent pursuit.

 

Last year he said they weren't going to be able to do much and then he immediately got into JJ Watt bidding that was going to be over $10M either way and reportedly offered Gronk $8M on a 1 year deal.   And of course re-signed a bunch of his own players.

 

While Von Miller or Khalil Mack would cost more in aav,  the first year hit could be similar.     I tend to believe Schoen when he said the Bills plan to have $ to spend in UFA.

 

You may be right.  I certainly wouldn't be opposed to bringing in a top pass rushing FA or a top guard or even a top TE.  I dunno how seriously Beane actually got into the bidding on those, though.  All sorts of stuff & fluff gets reported.

 

So in the bottom line, I think it's always worth looking at what actually happened, and that was we distributed our FA $$ between one "medium large" deal (Sanders), a higher-end backup QB, then a bunch of bargain basement guys like Forrest Lamp, Jamil Douglas, Bobby Hart, Matt Breida, Efe Obada, Trevon Hester, Tim Harris, Marquel Lee, Joe Giles-Harris etc.  Of course we need depth, and a couple of them did stick.  "Lottery tickets" is an apt description.

 

But I think that's Beane's pattern.

 

Of course, one difference that could be an argument in favor of your POV is that last season, Beane was by his own account, cautious pending getting a new deal inked with Josh.  Now that he's got that done and he can better predict his cap in the next few years, he may be more open to splurging.

 

I dunno if you've been following it, but I'm a bit sold on some of Erik Turner's stuff that it's time to re-think the DL

[MAJBobby]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

What's Harrison Phillips?  Chopped liver?  He ain't a 3T I promise you that, and he for-reals started at 1T last season.

 

I guess this comes down to, what perspective are you trying to take?  If you're doing a "What Bobby Would Do with the Bills in His World" piece, that's fine

If you're trying to see it how the Bills see it, and predict what they will do or should do (from the framework of how they see it), then Zimm is apparently a 1TDT

 

 

So we've learned from several posters, but if I were a Betting Hap unless Beane gets a trade offer, I'd bet that he's on the roster when training camp opens.

I am signing Harrison Back.  I am willing to bring Zimmer back as well on a Minimum Deal.  So I am not sure what the argument is actually.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

I am signing Harrison Back.  I am willing to bring Zimmer back as well on a Minimum Deal.  So I am not sure what the argument is actually.

 

You said "guess what Bills don’t have 1Techs outside of Star on their starting 53"

 

Harrison Phillips is a 1T

He was on the 53 and starting last season

You want him back

 

I'm pointing out that's inconsistent with your statement "guess what Bills don’t have 1Techs outside of Star on their starting 53"

[MAJBobby]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You said "guess what Bills don’t have 1Techs outside of Star on their starting 53"

 

Harrison Phillips is a 1T

He was on the 53 and starting last season

You want him back

 

I'm pointing out that's inconsistent with your statement "guess what Bills don’t have 1Techs outside of Star on their starting 53"

Right now they Dont.  Zimmer and Phillips are NOT on the roster. 

 

The Reality is Phillps coming back is vital to protect on the Star Cut (it will come early imo as a designated June 1 cut), as soon as Phillips is Signed. 

 

Then the Reality is my 1st round TGT is not a DT it is a CB, but if you dont have a starting 1 Tech on the roster come draft time you will have to address that position early. 

Edited February 16, 2022 by MAJBobby

[Brand J]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

HA!  I think the BigJ9797 ship has sailed with the Bills.  IIRC one reason they didn't pay him the big bucks is that he wasn't entirely "bought in" to McDermott's defense.  He tended to pursue sacks at the expense of gap integrity in the run game.  The good news is, when he guessed correctly on the pass, he got there.  The bad news is, when he didn't guess correctly, the RB was into the 2nd level.  The snarky response would be that's better than having a guy who doesn't get there and still lets the RB into the 2nd level.

I remember Oliver complained about this very thing when asked about his lack of sacks (was awhile back, two off-seasons ago I believe). He said he just wants to “turn it loose” and get after the QB any way he can, but can’t if it comes outside of his responsibilities in the pass rush. I remember thinking at the time “that sounds stupid, just get there by any means necessary!” I wonder if this is partly why there’s no double digit sack artists in McD’s defense. He hasn’t had one since he’s been here and the one who almost got there freelanced at times.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Right now they Dont.  Zimmer and Phillips are NOT on the roster. 

 

C'mon man.  You used the phrase "starting 53".  Since we haven't established a 53-man roster yet for next season, much less a depth chart, the natural assumption is you were speaking of last season.   I'm not trying to fillet you, honest, but when you write something that appears contradictory, just own your part in the confusion and do better!

 

 

10 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

The Reality is Phillps coming back is vital to protect on the Star Cut (it will come early imo as a designated June 1 cut), as soon as Phillips is Signed. 

 

Then the Reality is my 1st round TGT is not a DT it is a CB, but if you dont have a starting 1 Tech on the roster come draft time you will have to address that position early. 

 

Well, we disagree.  I don't see a driver at all to make Star an "early" cut, pre draft, ESPECIALLY if we want to designate him a post-June1 cut.

As you know, post-June1 designation means the player continues to count against the cap at his current contract until...post-June1

 

So what exactly is your perceived driver for that early cut?  They get 90 players on their roster, until the Bills finish FA or draft, is Star really so much less valuable than Joe Giles Harris or Brandin Bryant that the Bills need to scurry to send out the Turk for him?

 

Be that as it may - Beane likes his "belt and suspenders" and McDermott loves his rotation, so even if they do re-sign Phillips and Zimmer, I think Beane is gonna want to protect his options at 1T. 

 

But we'll see.

 

Personally, I'm kind of down with the idea that we really need to re-work our defensive strategy on DL and get some guys who can actually move people around and close gaps.

[MrEpsYtown]

1 hour ago, JayBaller10 said:

I remember Oliver complained about this very thing when asked about his lack of sacks (was awhile back, two off-seasons ago I believe). He said he just wants to “turn it loose” and get after the QB any way he can, but can’t if it comes outside of his responsibilities in the pass rush. I remember thinking at the time “that sounds stupid, just get there by any means necessary!” I wonder if this is partly why there’s no double digit sack artists in McD’s defense. He hasn’t had one since he’s been here and the one who almost got there freelanced at times.

 

And I know that Oliver is not Aaron Donald, but Aaron does not have to worry about gap integrity around him. The other guys on the line have to make him right.The Bills need to turn Oliver loose and have the other guys, who ain't getting to the QB anyway, cover for him and make him right. Let him pay to his strengths.