Bills ended the season as the #1 team in the NFL based on FPI

[ControllerOfPlanetX]

I’d rather be 29th in FPI...whatever that is....and win the Super Bowl.

 

[wakingfane]

Scheme that confuses less experienced quarterbacks but gets burned when talent needs to step up

[Buffalosouth]

Hey guys, the Lombardi is the mail.

[BearNorth]

7 hours ago, Charles Romes said:

#1 on the TeamRankings site as well!

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/ranking/predictive-by-other
 

what an awesome consolation prize. 

Considering we lost to the last place team, which forced us to play at KC instead of the OP.

[Logic]

This is the first season I've ever watched where I felt like the Bills absolutely should've been Super Bowl champions -- they were good enough to get it done and had the opportunity to get it done and didn't execute when it mattered. They were the best team in the league and their quarterback put up a historic playoff performance...and it wasn't enough. They didn't bring home the Lombardi. (Before anyone asks, I was too young to really remember the 1990 season).

This will hurt for a while. Everything lined up perfectly for them to do it, and they didn't. 

Ouch.

[CSBill]

8 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

Cool, but it still sucks....

 

Kind of like winning the AP poll before there was a college football playoff system.

 

 

Edited February 15, 2022 by CSBill

[strive_for_five_guy]

9 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:

That and fifty cents will buy ya a cup of coffee (in 1975).

 

But…

 

This was our Super Bowl the Rams got, dang it!!!!

Really? He bought me a bottle full of bub much more recent than that.
 

[streetkings01]

3-4 against good teams and 8-2 against bad teams is what I got from that.

[Captain Hindsight]

18 hours ago, BillsFanSD said:

No clue what FPI is, but I kind of like that the Jets are about as bad as we are good.

Looking forward to the articles off season about how the Jets could challenge the Bills for the AFCE title this year

 

"Watch out Bills Fans, Zach Wilson threw the ball decently one time"

[Bermuda Triangle]

18 hours ago, Utah John said:

OK, sure the 13 seconds at the end of the Chiefs game was on the coaches, and were it not for those mistakes we probably win the SB this year.  

 

OR the Bills don't lay complete eggs against the Steelers and Jags, two teams they should beat easily, and they get home field and the #1 seed, and don't lose to KC or anyone else in the playoffs.  That's on the players as well as the coaches.  

 

I'm just saying there are other ways to avoid the disaster and the disappointment.  I think the players realize how close they came this year and what they need to do differently next year.

Do you trust the defense in a one-possession game in the 4th quarter against a good/elite QB?  

 

Even if the Bills had beaten the Steelers or Jags, absent Allen and the offense going perfect game 3x, the defense still would have had to have shown up and stopped good offenses.

[Ralonzo]

17 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

What the h e doublebroomsticks is "FPI"?

 

#1 means Lombardy

Lombardy is just cheese and wine and goats and Alfa-Romeos. Maybe Matt Milano would be more enthusiastic about it though I’d probably just give it back to Italy.

Edited February 15, 2022 by Ralonzo

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 minutes ago, Ralonzo said:

Lombardy is just cheese and wine and goats and Alfa-Romeos. Maybe Matt Milano would be more enthusiastic about it though I’d probably just give it back to Italy.

 

I take your point about the spelling error, fair cop

 

The Lombardy region of Italy, however, is a GDP powerhouse - 10 million residents, high industrialization, and high air pollution.  So no, not just cheese wine and goats.

[billsfan89]

The Bills were the best team in my opinion but the best team doesn't always win the Super Bowl. Been said about many seasons. Luckily I think the Bills front office is approaching this process of winning a championship in a way that is sustainable. They know the one and done format of the playoffs can lead to fluky circumstances so they are best off trying to simply be very good many years in a row and hopefully finally get that deep run. But the Bills need to be more dominant in the regular season in order to clinch a bye again. We saw what the 2 seed did for this team in 2020 in the divisional round and how playing on the road in the divisional round in 2021 was a disadvantage. Having to clinch the best record is a tall task as it is kind of luck based but there is no reason the Bills shouldn't be the 2 seed in the playoffs in 2022.

[BuffaloBill]

Meaningless crap ..actually painful to consider given how we were knocked out.

[PonyBoy]

On 2/14/2022 at 11:36 AM, BillsFanSD said:

No clue what FPI is, but I kind of like that the Jets are about as bad as we are good.

According to the chart they are not about, but literally as bad as we are good.

On 2/14/2022 at 11:41 AM, BillnutinHouston said:

Rams fans are planning their parade and Bills fans are looking up ranking websites.  

 

And it's Rams fans that are devastated?

 

That's  a Bingo!

[The Frankish Reich]

2 hours ago, Ralonzo said:

Lombardy is just cheese and wine and goats and Alfa-Romeos. Maybe Matt Milano would be more enthusiastic about it though I’d probably just give it back to Italy.

So you're saying you'd rather wait for the Piemonte Trophy to be awarded? I think you get that when you finish with the highest FPI. It involves a case of Barolo and a box of truffles. Much higher end.

2 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

Meaningless crap ..actually painful to consider given how we were knocked out.

But, but, but ... I think (like the infamous Pythagorean record in baseball) it correlates better with next season success than actual won/loss does.

So since we're all about next year now, I am deeply offended by anyone calling cause for optimism "meaningless crap."

[Reed83HOF]

On 2/14/2022 at 6:08 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

What the h e doublebroomsticks is "FPI"?

 

#1 means Lombardy

 

FPI's rating is based on the average number of points by which team would beat an average NFL (or college) team on a neutral field. The model uses a Bayesian framework, using priors around the EPA rate of each team unit, derived from preseason expectations.

 

I look at it this way, from a stats and numbers sense, as we all know from our eyes (well some of us anyways), we are a really good freaking team. How much do you tweak vs. Add and subtract. 

 

I find it interesting to see from a statistical standpoint how we rank up against the rest of the league.

 

While 1 team may have the Lombardi, still doesn't necessarily equate to the best team in the league, the best team doesn't always win on any given Sunday...

[JoshAllin]

On 2/15/2022 at 7:54 AM, streetkings01 said:

3-4 against good teams and 8-2 against bad teams is what I got from that.

In 3 of those loses vs good teams, they scored 38, 31, 27 so with some defensive improvement next year could be year round domination . And the one in Indy where they scored 15 and gave up 41 could've possibly gone either way if game was closer

[Mat68]

On 2/14/2022 at 8:45 PM, wakingfane said:

Scheme that confuses less experienced quarterbacks but gets burned when talent needs to step up

The talent outside was a problem.  Buffalo had no ability to play man vs.  KC without Tre.  I put Cb as my highest priority of need.  I would look at spending big money to pair with White with another stud db or draft one at 25.  Maybe both.  The roster holes can be filled by lower level Fa and day 2 and 3 picks.  Having the horses to run with KC and Cincy outside is a big key.

[Reed83HOF]

49 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

The talent outside was a problem.  Buffalo had no ability to play man vs.  KC without Tre.  I put Cb as my highest priority of need.  I would look at spending big money to pair with White with another stud db or draft one at 25.  Maybe both.  The roster holes can be filled by lower level Fa and day 2 and 3 picks.  Having the horses to run with KC and Cincy outside is a big key.

Levi hadn't been bad and I have not even looked at the draft yet, so off the cuff...

 

Tre was a late rd1 pick (27) came in and started right away, I would see if we can find similar value for CB2 in rd1 this year, 5 years of a cheapish contract. I would spend my cap on an edge FA. Look at this year's superbowl, McVay to Donald go make a play and win this for us, it's your time. Is McDermott really saying this to Epenesa,  Addison or Hughes?