ChiGoose Posted November 4, 2022 Posted November 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, JDHillFan said: Here’s the question that I have. Maybe you can answer it. Why isn’t it looking good for the good guys? What happened? Fundamentals are very much against the Dems this cycle. Midterms tend to go against the party of the President Biden's approval is low Inflation is high Gas prices are... fluctuating? Seem to go up and then down and then back up again. Still higher than normal though The Dems should be expected to lose dozens of seats in the House and several in the Senate. That it's even close is a testament to how terrible many of the GOP candidates are, but I'm skeptical it'll make the difference. The GOP will almost assuredly take the House and have better than even odds to win the Senate as well.
Tiberius Posted November 4, 2022 Posted November 4, 2022 7 minutes ago, JDHillFan said: Here’s the question that I have. Maybe you can answer it. Why isn’t it looking good for the good guys? What happened? Historically the mid-terms go against the party in power. there are some exceptions, like 2002 when Bush rolled out the his war plans and used 9-11 to stir up the war fever
Biden is Mentally Fit Posted November 4, 2022 Posted November 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, ChiGoose said: Fundamentals are very much against the Dems this cycle. Midterms tend to go against the party of the President Biden's approval is low Inflation is high Gas prices are... fluctuating? Seem to go up and then down and then back up again. Still higher than normal though The Dems should be expected to lose dozens of seats in the House and several in the Senate. That it's even close is a testament to how terrible many of the GOP candidates are, but I'm skeptical it'll make the difference. The GOP will almost assuredly take the House and have better than even odds to win the Senate as well. Is Biden’s low approval because of fundamentals? Or is it a reflection of his performance? Maybe he’s just a victim of circumstance. Many terrible candidates indeed. That said, is it really close? The house doesn’t seem like it will be close at all.
ChiGoose Posted November 4, 2022 Posted November 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, JDHillFan said: Is Biden’s low approval because of fundamentals? Or is it a reflection of his performance? Maybe he’s just a victim of circumstance. Many terrible candidates indeed. That said, is it really close? The house doesn’t seem like it will be close at all. I'd say both factor into Biden's approval rating. Inflation is a global issue, but we tend to blame whoever is in charge. There's not much he could have done to prevent it, but the buck stops at his desk. Same with gas prices. There are things you can do to effect them in the long term but very little to move the needle in the short term. He also doesn't have the charisma or force to drive the narrative, so the Dems seem to always be on defense than on offense. They've done a lot of good things (IRA, capping prices of some medicines, etc), but American's won't feel the benefits of those until after the election. The GOP is strongly favored to take the House. A big part of the problem is that polling is getting worse and worse. Polling response rates are terrible, so the error bars are significant. We could see a bloodbath GOP landslide to slight Dem gains and anything in between. 1
BillsFanNC Posted November 4, 2022 Posted November 4, 2022 That's a new one. Dementia as "doesn't have the charisma" Anyway. Polling Dies in Darkness at the WaPo.
BillsFanNC Posted November 4, 2022 Posted November 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, B-Man said: The media will be out scouring the land to find some nuts who are mocking the Pelosi attack to prove that one side is hankering for violence while largely glossing over the outlandish rhetoric regularly spouted on our biggest platforms. Most Democratic voters surely don’t see the world in these Manichean terms. The “election-denying” left-wing punditry class and media, however, who spy Hitler lurking behind every milquetoast Republican governor, have no problem smearing all those with a slightly different worldview as fascists. In this world, there is no policy debate; there is only alarmism and crass projection from those who desire a one-party state. 1
ChiGoose Posted November 4, 2022 Posted November 4, 2022 Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) told electoral reform advocate Nick Troiano that "behind closed doors" pro-Donald Trump lawmakers admit they know accusations of a stolen 2020 presidential election aren't true and it is a continuing political stunt. They know it’s a lie, they admit it’s a lie, but they know the rubes will buy it. Few people have less respect for Republican voters than elected Republicans. 1
Greg S Posted November 4, 2022 Posted November 4, 2022 2 hours ago, JDHillFan said: Here’s the question that I have. Maybe you can answer it. Why isn’t it looking good for the good guys? What happened? Democrats are "good guys" the same way Michael Myers is a good guy in a Halloween movie. 1
sherpa Posted November 4, 2022 Posted November 4, 2022 1 hour ago, ChiGoose said: . Same with gas prices. There are things you can do to effect them in the long term but very little to move the needle in the short term. The man promised to "end drilling," in political debate prior to his election, and enacted several mandates to effect drilling, refining and transport after his election. Is that going to dry up capital spending to develop projects that take years? Hell yes. He made his bed. Begging the Saudis to hold off an announcement of cartel production reductions until after the election is just another grossly political effort, and it failed. 1
B-Man Posted November 4, 2022 Posted November 4, 2022 "If Wisconsin Democrats lose several low-budget state legislative contests here on Tuesday... it may not matter who wins the $114 million tossup contest for governor ..." "... between Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat, and Tim Michels, a Republican. Those northern seats would put Republicans in reach of veto-proof supermajorities that would render a Democratic governor functionally irrelevant.... The Republican leaders in the Wisconsin Legislature say they will bring back all 146 bills Mr. Evers has vetoed during his four years in office — measures on elections, school funding, pandemic mitigation efforts, policing, abortion and the state’s gun laws — if they win a supermajority or if Mr. Michels is elected." From "Wisconsin Republicans Stand on the Verge of Total, Veto-Proof Power/In a 50-50 battleground state, Republicans are close to capturing supermajorities in the State Legislature that would render the Democratic governor irrelevant even if he wins re-election" (NYT). The northern seats are "three counties in Wisconsin’s far northwest corner make up one of the last patches of rural America that have remained loyal to Democrats through the Obama and Trump years... Douglas, Bayfield and Ashland Counties. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/04/us/politics/wisconsin-voting-republicans-supermajorities.html?smid=url-share https://althouse.blogspot.com/2022/11/if-wisconsin-democrats-lose-several-low.html
Doc Posted November 4, 2022 Posted November 4, 2022 4 hours ago, ChiGoose said: Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) told electoral reform advocate Nick Troiano that "behind closed doors" pro-Donald Trump lawmakers admit they know accusations of a stolen 2020 presidential election aren't true and it is a continuing political stunt. They know it’s a lie, they admit it’s a lie, but they know the rubes will buy it. Few people have less respect for Republican voters than elected Republicans. Too bad Dems can't do the same for Russian collusion...
ChiGoose Posted November 4, 2022 Posted November 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, Doc said: Too bad Dems can't do the same for Russian collusion... Too bad you can’t read like, four pages of a report. Or listen to Little Marco.
Doc Posted November 4, 2022 Posted November 4, 2022 1 minute ago, ChiGoose said: Too bad you can’t read like, four pages of a report. Or listen to Little Marco. The 2020 election was the least secure in modern history. It doesn't take a 4 page report or anything else to realize that. Hopefully the changes enacted since will prevent it from the same, or at least to that extent, from happening again.
ChiGoose Posted November 5, 2022 Posted November 5, 2022 7 minutes ago, Big Blitz said: And here I thought that the NYT was an arm of the Democratic Party… 1
BillsFanNC Posted November 5, 2022 Posted November 5, 2022 Dementia tends to make you unfit for important jobs. But that's just me. 2
Biden is Mentally Fit Posted November 5, 2022 Posted November 5, 2022 1 hour ago, ChiGoose said: And here I thought that the NYT was an arm of the Democratic Party… No. They play it straight down the middle. 🤦♂️ https://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/25/opinion/the-public-editor-is-the-new-york-times-a-liberal-newspaper.html The first sentence sums it up nicely. Quite certain they haven’t become more conservative since this was written either. We can ask Tom Cotton about that.
B-Man Posted November 5, 2022 Posted November 5, 2022 1 hour ago, ChiGoose said: And here I thought that the NYT was an arm of the Democratic Party… They are. The Democrat Party needs to get rid of Joe. Getting stories out there is the first step. 1
Doc Posted November 5, 2022 Posted November 5, 2022 2 hours ago, ChiGoose said: And here I thought that the NYT was an arm of the Democratic Party… More like "when you've lose the NYT..." 1
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