Norcalbillsfan Posted February 9, 2022 Posted February 9, 2022 11 hours ago, CaptnCoke11 said: Barkley is very very intriguing but the injury history is very worrisome for me. Id love to have a healthy barkley, but he will be too expensive. Trades like that are tough on a gm, if beane trades for Barkley and shells out the money and the bills dominate the nfl and lose the afc title game then fans and media will be grabbing pitch forks and torches. If beane makes the trade and the bills win the Superbowl he's a genius and it's one of the greatest trades in bills history. It would be a risky move by a gm. Quote
BADOLBILZ Posted February 9, 2022 Posted February 9, 2022 18 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said: Toney is interesting. He does have some Tyreek Hill to him which Beane repeatedly made reference to looking for, not quite as fast but incredibly quick. They’d have to be convinced they can absorb the personality. If so, I wonder if they’d send someone like Epenesa in a trade - would not shock me to see him used as trade collateral for someone this offseason. Even though they’d be dealing him at a lowered value, he’s a cost-controlled asset at a premium position and the Bills may not have space for him (or a coherent plan for what to do with him). He's got the elusiveness of Hill at the catch point but not the elite jets. He's closer to Peter Warrick 2.0 than Tyreek Hill........which is a big difference, IMO. If there isn't a character issue I think Toney probably has early 3rd round trade value in what is yet another very good WR 2022 draft. Epenesa is probably more like a late 5th or 6th round value in a good edge draft at this point. He's not produced as a pass rusher and has been pretty bad against the run and only has 2 years of team control left. Worth more to the Bills than anyone at this point, IMO. But if someone might over-value him it could be a former Bills personnel man with insight on him maybe being close to a breakout season or something. 1 Quote
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 9, 2022 Posted February 9, 2022 19 minutes ago, HappyDays said: Yes, Addison was overpaid. My point is that it was not a prohibitive cap hit. If we take on Barkley's one year cap hit and cut Addison, it's a wash. And I believe the impact Barkley would have on the team would be substantially greater than Addison's impact has been. Um, Addison is a free agent this season. The $2M that still shows next to his name is amortized signing bonus tacked onto a void year. Addison took a 2M pay cut last season in exchange for the Bills shortening his contract by 1 year and guaranteeing his 2021 salary. The other difference is that last season, even though we were jammed up against the cap due to the Covid cap reduction, we were still dealing with Allen and Edmunds on rookie deals. So that's two players adding $30M of cap right there, as well as other valued players coming into the more expensive last year(s) of their deals If we want to upgrade our biggest needs - which I see as OL and DL, with a shout-out to CB and the need to add another receiver - we have to be very judicious with cap space. 2 1 Quote
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 9, 2022 Posted February 9, 2022 15 hours ago, BarleyNY said: I’d think there would be little to do with the NYG as far as player trades. With a new regime the two big drivers usually are: - Poor scheme fit of existing players. As I’d expect Daboll to require similar skill sets to those on our roster I’d expect him to be getting rid of players that don’t fit our system. He might want to acquire players from us, but we really don’t have anyone of high value to give up. Maybe just looking at a depth player with upside. - Shedding older, higher priced vets to purge cap. Really don’t see the fit here. We aren’t looking to take on many big contracts. I see pick for picks draft weekend trades as more likely. This is an interesting point. You're only looking at one side of the ball here, though. Wink Martindale may see poor scheme fits on the Giants defense, who might be better fits for the Bills defense. On offense, I don't see it as beyond possibility that BECAUSE Daboll may require similar skills on offense, Daboll might be interested in picking up a couple players from the Bills who might help him instill his culture and teach his system. Bobby Johnson might be interested in taking (say) Feliciano with him as new OL coaches usually seem to want to bring in a couple of "their guys" to help teach their techniques, and Feliciano brings a lot of "juice" to the field. Daboll might want Beasley as that crafty veteran who could school Daniel Jones about option routes as he schooled Allen But will Kafka be running the same type of routes and have that same need for the surgical slot guy who can run options and secondary route concepts? Does Dorsey (or Brady as pass coordinator) have the same value for Beasley that Daboll did, and would want to keep him? Was all the kerfluffle about booing fans and NFL fines wearing Beane and McDermott's "last nerve"? Just don't know. I don't see it as impossible that we could see a few trades. (Heh. Beasley and Feliciano for Saquon Barkley 😈) Quote
HappyDays Posted February 9, 2022 Posted February 9, 2022 (edited) 27 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Um, Addison is a free agent this season. The $2M that still shows next to his name is amortized signing bonus tacked onto a void year. Addison took a 2M pay cut last season in exchange for the Bills shortening his contract by 1 year and guaranteeing his 2021 salary. I know. I'm not explaining myself well. Simply put I don't believe a $7 million cap hit is a huge deal. It isn't going to be the difference in missing out on an impact player. But the upside on taking that risk is limitless. If Barkley two years removed from his ACL injury gets anywhere near his early career form, that cap hit will be a bargain. If he doesn't, oh well. Teams in their championship window have to take gambles. I'm not asking us to become the Rams. But we are at least one game changing player away from being a true Super Bowl favorite. There are two ways to get game changing players short of hitting the jackpot in the draft - sell the farm for a guaranteed impact player by trading high draft picks or handing out a massive FA contract; or take a high risk/high upside chance at a small to moderate cost. With the Bills as currently constructed I think the second option is more realistic. Barkley would be a risk but not one that greatly affects the way we would be able to attack the offseason IMO. And the upside is that our offense becomes practically unstoppable. 27 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: If we want to upgrade our biggest needs - which I see as OL and DL, with a shout-out to CB and the need to add another receiver - we have to be very judicious with cap space. $7 million isn't upgrading our OL or DL or CB room all that much... That was my point with Addison. You could double Barkley's cap hit and still you'd still pay him less than the trio of Vernon Butler, AJ Klein, and Jon Feliciano in 2021. I mean if there was some hypothetical scenario where a premier pass rusher became available for trade and we had to structure our whole offseason around making sure that player fit into the cap, of course I would say forget about Barkley. But assuming we're talking about a normal offseason with a few low tier signings to fill in gaps, then yes I take on Barkley's contract in a heartbeat and build those other positions through the draft. Going back to the example of the Rams they are $8 million over the cap in 2022 and I don't see anyone freaking out that they won't be able to have an offseason. We're talking about $7.2 million with zero risk past this coming season. That is the kind of cap space that good GMs with generous owners are easily able to find by moving a few numbers around. Edited February 9, 2022 by HappyDays 1 1 Quote
Hapless Bills Fan Posted February 9, 2022 Posted February 9, 2022 43 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: No they SAY you are crazy or senseless for thinking that the Bills can trade for him and just simply re-work his contract to lower his cap hit. It makes absolutely zero sense for the player to do so unless the contract extension is close to what he could expect if he repeated his 2018 stats in 2022.........plus, of course, the $7.2M he is otherwise guaranteed in full for 2022. The only way Barkley gets traded is an NBA style salary cap dump........the Giants are so up against the salary cap they aren't even in position to just do a bad contract swap. I just sardonically proposed a contract swap in another post, but I think Badol is correct on this point. If Barkley believes he has it in him to return to his 2018 or his pre-injury 2019 form, then he has almost no impetus at all to re-work his contract for a lower cap hit. The smart financial move for him is to "bet on himself", play out his contract, and hope for a big year that will give him a big second contract. That said, the "almost" is that he'd likely prefer to be traded to a team with a good OL that can give him his best chance to showcase his skills. He might be willing to "give" a bit to make that happen (the Bills OL wouldn't be a team I'd pine for, if I were an elite RB, though). But this year is a little bit unusual in that there are a handful of contending teams with cap space a plenty. I took a quick look at the Giants roster to see if there are players they might see as bad scheme fits and trade or just cut to clear cap, and I think there might be a couple scheme mis-matches for Wink Martindale's D who could clear quite a bit of cap for them, maybe $20-25M, but unsure. If that's right, though, it's possible that Daboll would want to keep Barkley. Quote
BADOLBILZ Posted February 9, 2022 Posted February 9, 2022 10 hours ago, HappyDays said: $7 million isn't upgrading our OL or DL or CB room all that much... I think Khalil Mack played on a $2M base salary last season. If you are willing to backload a deal you can easily get a Von Miller in with $7M in cap room..........that is how valuable that much cap room is. I know there are runnin' back truthers on TSW but once again the lead RB's in the SB are bit players...........if they have a big game it will be because of their OL or their passing game opening up the LOS or their defense controlling the game. RB's are bit players HEAVILY reliant on a number of other players excelling at their job. Pass rushers on the other hand........those are individual difference makers in the NFL. The one-on-one battles are your best chance to make game changing plays in the NFL and with rare exception(like Aaron Donald) those big play opportunities come from edge and island positions so that's the difference between giving an arrow down trajectory Saquon Barkley the same cap space as Mario Addison who was coming off a 10 sack season with Carolina. Quote
dave mcbride Posted February 9, 2022 Posted February 9, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said: I think Khalil Mack played on a $2M base salary last season. If you are willing to backload a deal you can easily get a Von Miller in with $7M in cap room..........that is how valuable that much cap room is. I know there are runnin' back truthers on TSW but once again the lead RB's in the SB are bit players...........if they have a big game it will be because of their OL or their passing game opening up the LOS or their defense controlling the game. RB's are bit players HEAVILY reliant on a number of other players excelling at their job. Pass rushers on the other hand........those are individual difference makers in the NFL. The one-on-one battles are your best chance to make game changing plays in the NFL and with rare exception(like Aaron Donald) those big play opportunities come from edge and island positions so that's the difference between giving an arrow down trajectory Saquon Barkley the same cap space as Mario Addison who was coming off a 10 sack season with Carolina. Gotta disagree on one thing here: Joe Mixon is a STUD and hands-down one of the best RBs in the league. He had 16 TDs and led the team in yards from scrimmage (1,519). It's impossible to argue that he's a bit player in that offense. Moreover, he's an initimdating, fast, bruising RB with good vision who commands attention. Forget about the ypc -- just look at how he opens thing up for the passing game. KC certainly keyed on him in the AFC championship game, and he handled the ball on 24 out of 66 offensive plays (36.3 percent of the time). I'm not a RB truther either! I mostly agree with you. In fact, I've said before that if the Bills were to be gifted just one RB from another team, he'd be my pick. Edited February 9, 2022 by dave mcbride Quote
Coach Tuesday Posted February 9, 2022 Posted February 9, 2022 24 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: Gotta disagree on one thing here: Joe Mixon is a STUD and hands-down one of the best RBs in the league. He had 16 TDs and led the team in yards from scrimmage (1,519). It's impossible to argue that he's a bit player in that offense. Moreover, he's an initimdating, fast, bruising RB with good vision who commands attention. Forget about the ypc -- just look at how he opens thing up for the passing game. KC certainly keyed on him in the AFC championship game, and he handled the ball on 24 out of 66 offensive plays (36.3 percent of the time). I'm not a RB truther either! I mostly agree with you. In fact, I've said before that if the Bills were to be gifted just one RB from another team, he'd be my pick. Agree, but worth repeating that he was a second round pick. Quote
dave mcbride Posted February 9, 2022 Posted February 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said: Agree, but worth repeating that he was a second round pick. Yeah, and there was a reason he was a second-round pick ... 1 Quote
HappyDays Posted February 9, 2022 Posted February 9, 2022 3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said: I think Khalil Mack played on a $2M base salary last season. If you are willing to backload a deal you can easily get a Von Miller in with $7M in cap room..........that is how valuable that much cap room is. I know there are runnin' back truthers on TSW but once again the lead RB's in the SB are bit players...........if they have a big game it will be because of their OL or their passing game opening up the LOS or their defense controlling the game. RB's are bit players HEAVILY reliant on a number of other players excelling at their job. Pass rushers on the other hand........those are individual difference makers in the NFL. The one-on-one battles are your best chance to make game changing plays in the NFL and with rare exception(like Aaron Donald) those big play opportunities come from edge and island positions so that's the difference between giving an arrow down trajectory Saquon Barkley the same cap space as Mario Addison who was coming off a 10 sack season with Carolina. And again, if we have a chance to sign or trade for a premier pass rusher then I absolutely take that opportunity over Barkley. But I just don't agree that that cap space given to Addison is more valuable than that cap space given to Barkley. Addison is not a difference maker, he's a rotational piece. That's what $8 million usually gets you from an edge rusher. Barkley has a chance to be a real difference maker for the team. Give Barkley the ball instead of Singletary on that 3rd and short against KC and I think he picks it up because he has speed to get around the edge. With Singletary it becomes a wasted down and we punt. That one play alone may be the difference between a win and a loss. I'm not a RB truther but you take it too far in the other direction by trying to argue that RB talent doesn't matter at all. Barkley being here doesn't mean we have to become a run first team. It just gives our offense another option when defenses are selling out to stop the pass, not to mention another pass catching weapon. Quote
dave mcbride Posted February 9, 2022 Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, HappyDays said: And again, if we have a chance to sign or trade for a premier pass rusher then I absolutely take that opportunity over Barkley. But I just don't agree that that cap space given to Addison is more valuable than that cap space given to Barkley. Addison is not a difference maker, he's a rotational piece. That's what $8 million usually gets you from an edge rusher. Barkley has a chance to be a real difference maker for the team. Give Barkley the ball instead of Singletary on that 3rd and short against KC and I think he picks it up because he has speed to get around the edge. With Singletary it becomes a wasted down and we punt. That one play alone may be the difference between a win and a loss. I'm not a RB truther but you take it too far in the other direction by trying to argue that RB talent doesn't matter at all. Barkley being here doesn't mean we have to become a run first team. It just gives our offense another option when defenses are selling out to stop the pass, not to mention another pass catching weapon. Barkley was a phenomenal receiver before getting hurt. If he does get back to 100 percent, he's as good as Kamara in that category. 1 Quote
HappyDays Posted February 9, 2022 Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, dave mcbride said: Barkley was a phenomenal receiver before getting hurt. If he does get back to 100 percent, he's as good as Kamara in that category. Yes for some reason everyone talks about RBs only in the context of what they bring to the run game. In the EP offense they should also be weapons in the passing game (think New England all those years with James White). Singletary and Moss get stuck in the mud after catching a pass so their value on those plays is limited. Quote
dave mcbride Posted February 9, 2022 Posted February 9, 2022 (edited) 41 minutes ago, HappyDays said: And again, if we have a chance to sign or trade for a premier pass rusher then I absolutely take that opportunity over Barkley. But I just don't agree that that cap space given to Addison is more valuable than that cap space given to Barkley. Addison is not a difference maker, he's a rotational piece. That's what $8 million usually gets you from an edge rusher. Barkley has a chance to be a real difference maker for the team. Give Barkley the ball instead of Singletary on that 3rd and short against KC and I think he picks it up because he has speed to get around the edge. With Singletary it becomes a wasted down and we punt. That one play alone may be the difference between a win and a loss. I'm not a RB truther but you take it too far in the other direction by trying to argue that RB talent doesn't matter at all. Barkley being here doesn't mean we have to become a run first team. It just gives our offense another option when defenses are selling out to stop the pass, not to mention another pass catching weapon. Here's my take on RB value, such as it is. Good RBs do three things: 1) They run the rock enough and effectively enough to get d-lines prone to moving sideways to stop running plays rather than pinning their ears back and getting after the QB. Doing this effectively does three things: sets up play action, regularly gets you 2-3 yards when you really need it, and opens up the passing game by taking some pressure off of your o-line in pass blocking. 2) They turn the ball over at a very low rate. Pass plays are far less safe than running plays, or at least they should be. INTs and QB fumbles make up the vast bulk of turnovers for just about every team, so if you want safe plays where the possibility of turning it over is very small, you run the ball. Good backs behind effective lines then do two things for you -- get you somewhere between 4 and 4.7 ypc on average and *hang onto the ball*. Running plays are your safe plays, and you need them. That's why RBs who fumble at a higher-than-average rate are kicked to the curb. When you wonder why TJ Yeldon or Matt Brieda has a sloppy fumble and doesn't see the field again, this is why. It's unacceptable for the running game to become a risky approach to moving the ball. You accept fumbles with WRs and QBs because the risk/reward ratio is very different. (Regarding ypc, bear in mind that scoring a lot of rushing TDs is going to reduce your ypc average a tad. Most rushing TDs come from close in, and if you're a back that has a dozen rushing TDs, it'll bring your average down a peg or two. Also, a couple of breakaway runs can really skew ypc. You want backs with breakaway ability, but that's not what you should be counting on--they're pretty rare events.) 3) Good ones serve as receivers who will catch it close to 80 percent of the time. They ypc will be lower than a WR, obviously, but the catch rate will be a fair bit higher. They are safer options to at least produce something on a play-by-play basis and can keep the chains moving. You need safe plays. Just look at the Pats over the years. When viewed this way, it's pretty easy to see why they're valuable players. I think the reason they're not really worth first round picks isn't so much because of the position, but because two of the traits -- holding onto the ball and getting safe positive yards -- are very hard to predict because of the vast difference between NFL defenses and college defenses as well as college o-lines and pro o-lines. Terrel Davis (injured in college) went in the sixth partly because no one could really project that he'd be the greatest RB ever within one very specific o-line scheme. The other reason to avoid them in the first is because no players get injured more frequently than RBs, or so it seems. Their shelf lives are short, and unlike a DE or LT, the chance of that guy being a cornerstone for 8-10 years is very small. If an elite back like Mixon is there in the second, he's great value because you're not on the hook for a big salary or even the fifth year. With a great player in the second, you're getting 4 or so elite years (Le'Veon Bell is the classic case here). After that, investing in that player is paying good money for past production. Barkley, Gurley, and Etienne tell you all you need to know about drafting one in the first. Gurley was worth it for nearly four years, but the injury that appears to have ended his career set in near the end of his 4th year. Of course, the Rams stupidly gave him a big second contract. Finally Ezekiel Elliot is instructive. He had four very good years, and the Cowboys then decided to pay him a lot of money for past results. He's probably the second best back on the team now. They did get four good years, but if he had been a second rounder, he may well have walked and the Cowboys could look at him as a perfect investment. But they did the opposite: drafted him early in the first and gave him a big second contract. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/E/ElliEz00.htm . (Bear in mind he was suspended for six games in his second year.) Edited February 9, 2022 by dave mcbride 1 Quote
ghostwriter Posted February 9, 2022 Posted February 9, 2022 Feliciano and a 3rd for Toney, straight up! Quote
JimBob2232 Posted February 9, 2022 Posted February 9, 2022 I wouldn't mind trying Barkley - but at what cost? A 3rd or 4th rounder? Sure. But will they let him go that cheaply? Quote
ghostwriter Posted February 9, 2022 Posted February 9, 2022 14 minutes ago, JimBob2232 said: I wouldn't mind trying Barkley - but at what cost? A 3rd or 4th rounder? Sure. But will they let him go that cheaply? I started a thread a few months ago about Barkley. Honestly, I think a conditional 3rd in 2023 would get it done, but honestly, I think I would rather have Toney than Barkley. They did hire Bobby Johnson our old OL coach, maybe Feliciano would get it done? I know the Giants need some serious help on the OL and Johnson/Feliciano have known each other since 2015. Cody Ford could be an option too. In that event, Buffalo should just sign Bates to a cheap 2 year deal and draft a guy. Quote
dave mcbride Posted February 9, 2022 Posted February 9, 2022 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Victory Formation said: I started a thread a few months ago about Barkley. Honestly, I think a conditional 3rd in 2023 would get it done, but honestly, I think I would rather have Toney than Barkley. They did hire Bobby Johnson our old OL coach, maybe Feliciano would get it done? I know the Giants need some serious help on the OL and Johnson/Feliciano have known each other since 2015. Cody Ford could be an option too. In that event, Buffalo should just sign Bates to a cheap 2 year deal and draft a guy. A healthy Barkley would be FAR more valuable to the Bills than Toney. But I don't know how healthy he is or will be going forward. No one here does. When healthy, he's a generational talent who can do it all from the RB position; Toney is merely a talent. Edited February 9, 2022 by dave mcbride 1 Quote
ghostwriter Posted February 9, 2022 Posted February 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: A healthy Barkley would be FAR more valuable to the Bills than Toney. But I don't know how healthy he is or will be going forward. No one here does. When healthy, he's a generational talent who can do it all from the RB position; Toney is merely a talent. I would not argue against either of them, but in the end I would hope for a player for player trade. Barkley interests me, Toney interests me, I would take both of them if I could! I wonder if they would be interested in any of the following players: 1. Jon Feliciano 2. Cody Ford 3. Tremaine Edmunds 4. Cole Beasley 5. Zack Moss 6. AJ Epenesa Quote
OZBILLS Posted February 10, 2022 Posted February 10, 2022 Toney ain't no culture guy. I am all for it Quote
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