Spotrac has Levi Wallace valued @ $9M/yr. Thoughts?

[Thurman#1]

15 hours ago, Estro said:

I love spotrac.com, Mike Ginniti does a great job & I really like his market valuations for FAs to be.

 

He's very thorough in his breakdowns, but I think hus value for Levi is off.

 

Levi coming off of a steady 2020 season hit FA and ended up coming vacation to the Bills on a 1 yr deal that payed him a little more than $1M.  1 year later coming g off another steady year, spotrac now has Levi valued @ $9M per year.  Doesn't seem to pass the sniff test.  Levi has been a steady, solid player, but it appears no one valued him last year even @ the $2.5-3M range so I don't see how he's suddenly going to find 3x or even 4x that much on the open market.

 

I think hes worth a lot more than the $1M he played for last season, but I'd be surprised if he finds north of $6M on the open market. Don't forget teams don't love slow corners and Levi is a very limited athlete by CB standards. I think the Bills will offer him a 3 year extension in the $4M per year range and hold firm.

 

If he finds $6M or better on the open market, give me the 5th round comp. pick & find a FA vet to replace him.

 

Levi's measurable at the combine listed below, there's a reason he went undrafted

https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/levi-wallace

 

 

 

I think this is all fair. IMO he could maybe get that much if he's lucky. I would guess not, but it wouldn't shock me.

 

$6 - $7M would be my guess if he goes for the best offer.

 

I think he's a solid #2, helped by scheme and personnel around him.

[Doc Brown]

3 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

They've viewed him as a starter the last two seasons, though, haven't they? Definitely this past season, at least. Last season (2020) they brought in competition for him (Norman), but they didn't really do that this year, did they (I'm asking sincerely)?

They did but I think they like Jackson enough to take his place.   Beane said at his press conference he didn't think a CB in the 2nd round of last year's draft would be an upgrade over Dane.  If Wallace commands nine million a year then this will pry be the first real difficult loss of the McBeane era.  Then they'll either draft a CB and/or sign a veteran CB for depth.  They need as much cap room as possible over the next couple of years to extend Edmunds, Oliver, Knox, Diggs, and possibly Phillips.

[GunnerBill]

9 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I'd value Wallace around $4M per..........he's very sound but his lack of athleticism limits what they can do on defense.

 

Donte Jackson with Carolina is a zone scheme fit and may be viewed as an ascending talent like Wallace........but Jackson has 4.3 speed.    Also has a connection with Tre White as both were at LSU and White lobbied Buffalo to draft him in 2018.

 

Below is some info from PFF who ranked him 48th best potential UFA for 2022 (Levi was not in their top 100)..........with just a projected 2 year contract the short term numbers could be a bit too big of a hit..........but he might enable them to upgrade the corps with speed.

 

48. CB DONTE JACKSON, CAROLINA PANTHERS

The Carolina Panthers used the No. 8 overall pick on South Carolina standout Jaycee Hornand then traded for two cornerbacks in Jacksonville Jaguars 2020 No. 9 overall pick C.J. Henderson and Stephon Gilmore this season, but they remain steadfast that this doesn’t say anything about their plans for Donte Jackson. It would appear he will at least have a chance to test the open market as Carolina prioritizes signing Gilmore to an extension to mentor their young collection of cornerbacks.

 

Strengths:
-Speed and recovery speed
-Explosive vertical leap
-Zone coverage

 

Weaknesses:
-Man coverage
-Missed tackles
-In-breaking routes

 

Scheme Fit/Role:
NO 2 CB IN A ZONE SCHEME: Donte Jackson has the speed to burn, but is at his best in zone coverage where he can keep his eye on the quarterback and use his athleticism to break on the ball. His best plays come using that speed to attack out-breaking routes. The Steelers or Seahawks run perfect schemes for Jackson.

Recent Injury History:
Jackson battled a toe injury for much of 2020, but he has been healthy so far in 2021(actually finished 2021 on IR). He has yet to clear 1,000 snaps in a season.

 

Contract Projection: Two years, $20 million ($10M per year, $11.5 million total guaranteed)

 

Bottom Line:
Donte Jackson has exceptional speed and athleticism but doesn't have the man-cover skills to match them. He can be a playmaker in the right zone scheme, where he can key the quarterback and break on the football, but is limited to a No. 2 role.

 

 

 

 

Donte's biggest issue in the NFL has been consistency. He has way too many mental lapses. I think he would make sense for the Bills but then there would be a coaching job to do when they get him inside the building for Butler, Frazier and McDermott. He is a talented player though. Has not yet reached his ceiling. 

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

They did but I think they like Jackson enough to take his place.   Beane said at his press conference he didn't think a CB in the 2nd round of last year's draft would be an upgrade over Dane.  If Wallace commands nine million a year then this will pry be the first real difficult loss of the McBeane era.  Then they'll either draft a CB and/or sign a veteran CB for depth.  They need as much cap room as possible over the next couple of years to extend Edmunds, Oliver, Knox, Diggs, and possibly Phillips.

 

That wasn't quite what he said. He said their 2nd round talents at corner had gone off the board and he wasn't going to reach for a guy because IF he reached for a guy and then he couldn't beat out Dane who had the advantage of a 2nd year in the system it would not be considered a good pick. 

 

To an extent he is right. I had four 1st round grades at corner and only two 2nd round corners last draft and they were all long gone before the Bills picked. 

[Doc Brown]

45 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That wasn't quite what he said. He said their 2nd round talents at corner had gone off the board and he wasn't going to reach for a guy because IF he reached for a guy and then he couldn't beat out Dane who had the advantage of a 2nd year in the system it would not be considered a good pick. 

 

To an extent he is right. I had four 1st round grades at corner and only two 2nd round corners last draft and they were all long gone before the Bills picked. 

You're correct.  I should've been more clear.  Beane also didn't trade up and grab one either.  Regardless, that comment was telling in what he thinks of Jackson and why I think they'll move on from Wallace if his price tag really is that high.  With White, Poyer, Hyde, and T. Johnson signing extensions they already have a lot invested in their secondary.  My guess is they let him walk if some team does give him nine million or more per year.

[machine gun kelly]

We’re paying Taron Johnson $8 mil., for a nickel corner.  It depends on whether we take a 1st round CB or not.  If that’s where we invest in the draft, then no.  If not, we’ll probably make him a competitive offer.  
 

Remember Milano was valued at $13.75 mil. at one point on Spotrac, and I think he took $11 mil.

 

Wallace is going to test the market, but he also knows he’s on a team competing for a SB now.

[Bill from NYC]

18 hours ago, Limeaid said:

 

I have been hearing that people expect him to be replaced with 1st round CB.

I cannot see Beane investing another 1st round pick on CB when he is paying for one not on rookie CB contract and has paid for Johnson.  

Major reason for 1st round players is 5th year option but I do not see advantage here.  Maybe a 2nd round pick as CB.

I agree but history books tell another sad story.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

I agree but history books tell another sad story.

 

Beane hasn't picked a DB earlier than the 4th round in his four drafts as GM. I'd argue if anything that is an under investment in DBs in a passing league where the analytics are strongly suggesting that secondaries rather than fronts are more indicative of defensive success in the modern NFL. To be fair to him he has benefitted from the fact that McDermott overhauled the secondary before Beane arrived with the drafting of White and then the FA signings of Hyde and Poyer. 

 

Eventually though they need to dedicate some of their draft capital to the secondary. I know you agree that weapons and blockers are near the top of the need list as well, but corner is right there with them as the Bills three biggest draft needs. 

[Bill from NYC]

10 hours ago, Doc said:

 

It depends on what he wants, what the Bills feel he's worth, and if they can get a better player for the same or less.

This is correct Doc but drafting a first round corner (which an extrordinary amount of fans seem to actually want) doesn't automatically make him a good player.

 

Leotis McKelvin (who took about 4 years to develop) says hi.  👍

[atlbillsfan1975]

Levi should send McDermott and Frazier Birthday cards for the rest of their lives. Wallace is this defenses version of Josh Norman, while Levi won’t get the same big deal as Norman did, $9mil a year for a player with his skill set is the equivalent. 
No way I pay Wallace anywhere near that. Bills need SPEED in the secondary. Wallace is slow. He is routinely a half step late, I think they stopped using him to blitz because of this. 

[Bill from NYC]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Eventually though they need to dedicate some of their draft capital to the secondary. I know you agree that weapons and blockers are near the top of the need list as well, but corner is right there with them as the Bills three biggest draft needs. 

I agree with the bolded. We have a great pair of safeties but all players get old and injured. Picking up a corner somewhere in the draft is also a sound idea. The Bills lucked out with the much maligned Wallace. I remember Calvin Ridley saying how he was a very solid player, and he practiced against him every day. I expected him to get drafted that year and was thrilled when the Bills picked him up as a UFA. 

 

That said, we are built around Josh Allen who I consider nothing less than great. He needs weapons and protection for us to have a chance at a title. As great as he is, he can't do it on his own and we really don't want him to get injured. McBeane has concentrated on defense to include passing on Mahomes; now is the time to help Josh.

 

And btw, Wallace is a good, solid player. He works as hard as anyone GB. This man was actually a junior walk on at Bama, and played well enough to keep Trevon Diggs on the bench for a while. If he was not a good player, his contract value would not be estimated at 9 mil. Maybe they should find a way to keep him instead of buying another ticket to the first round defensive back merry go-round which never has and never will work for this team.

Edited February 7, 2022 by Bill from NYC

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

I agree with the bolded. We have a great pair of safeties but all players get old and injured. Picking up a corner somewhere in the draft is also a sound idea. The Bills lucked out with the much maligned Wallace. I remember Calvin Ridley saying how he was a very solid player, and he practiced against him every day. I expected him to get drafted that year and was thrilled when the Bills picked him up as a UFA. 

 

That said, we are built around Josh Allen who I consider nothing less than great. He needs weapons and protection for us to have a chance at a title. As great as he is, he can't do it on his own and we really don't want him to get injured. McBeane has concentrated on defense to imnclude passing on Mahomes; now is the time to help Josh.

 

And btw, Wallace is a good, solid player. He works as hard as anyone GB. This man was actually a junior walk on at Bama, and played well enough to keep Trevon Diggs on the bench for a while. If he was not a good player, his contract value would not be estimated at 9 mil. Maybe they should find a way to keep him instead of buying another ticket to the first round defensive back merry go-round which never has and never will work for this team.

 

I mean it got us two elite back to back corners in Gilmore (I know you didn't rate him, but he was borderline elite here even before he went to New England) and then White. 

 

I like Wallace (don't think he is getting $9m for reasons I have already explained) and have defended him many times on this forum. But part of their issues stopping Kansas City is that smart, physically limited corners who excel in off coverage forces you to be reactive against a team where you want to try and be somewhat more proactive. I think they have to get a second corner who can do some press at the line. We only have one on the roster and he will be coming off an ACL. Maybe that is a mid range FA like Donte Jackson or maybe it is an early round draft pick. If Andrew Booth fell to #25 I'd have a hard time passing on him. I think he is absolutely outstanding. But I think my next 5 preferences at that spot are all offensive line or receiver. It just depends how the board falls. 

[HOUSE]

6 mil per season, New York Giants. That was easy

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

6 mil per season, New York Giants. That was easy

 

Depends what they do at DC, if it is Wink Martindale Levi is most definitely not a fit. 

[Bill from NYC]

26 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I mean it got us two elite back to back corners in Gilmore (I know you didn't rate him, but he was borderline elite here even before he went to New England) and then White. 

 

How many games did Gilmore win for the Bills? Oh yeah, how hard did he play? 

 

Gilmore was very talented but drafting him did not result in winning game for the Bills.

[colin]

13 hours ago, vincec said:

The defense has a lot less talent on it than many people seem to think. McD and Beane have put together a group of decent players who are well coached, do their “1/11th”, and feast of rookie QBs and mediocre offenses. But you don’t beat good QBs and good offenses without big time talent. Tre is a piece of that but I think they need more than him. There’s a reason that no defensive player made the pro bowl besides anti-Bills bias.

 

i think the truth is somewhere between what you are saying and the general take that the bills have a really good D (it's really not the best, despite rankings) so net net i think i agree with you -- we simply lack playmakers.

 

the problem is we are paying our D and especially our DL just a ton of money, with 4 guys (2 1sts 2 2nds) on rookie contracts.  we should have a monster DL given what we've put into it, but we just have a deep set of JAGS+.  we need at least one monster up front.

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

How many games did Gilmore win for the Bills? Oh yeah, how hard did he play? 

 

Gilmore was very talented but drafting him did not result in winning game for the Bills.

 

You can say that about any player except a QB. But in the 5 years with Gilmore we averaged over 1 win per year extra to the 5 years before him. Not saying for a minute it was all his doing because you can't separate one player out that easily. But other than peak Mario Williams, Gilmore was the next best player on those teams.

[JMF2006]

This is why I figure a CB at 25 might be the best pick.

 

Someone will  over pay for Levi which is good for him.

 

We have CB #1 locked up we got our slot/ nickle locked up its time to get a real #2 and 5 years of control.

[Ramza86]

Someone will 100% offer that. Will it be us? Not sure.

 

Cap went up so teams have more space to pay the 9m.

[MAJBobby]

20 hours ago, Estro said:

I love spotrac.com, Mike Ginniti does a great job & I really like his market valuations for FAs to be.

 

He's very thorough in his breakdowns, but I think hus value for Levi is off.

 

Levi coming off of a steady 2020 season hit FA and ended up coming vacation to the Bills on a 1 yr deal that payed him a little more than $1M.  1 year later coming g off another steady year, spotrac now has Levi valued @ $9M per year.  Doesn't seem to pass the sniff test.  Levi has been a steady, solid player, but it appears no one valued him last year even @ the $2.5-3M range so I don't see how he's suddenly going to find 3x or even 4x that much on the open market.

 

I think hes worth a lot more than the $1M he played for last season, but I'd be surprised if he finds north of $6M on the open market. Don't forget teams don't love slow corners and Levi is a very limited athlete by CB standards. I think the Bills will offer him a 3 year extension in the $4M per year range and hold firm.

 

If he finds $6M or better on the open market, give me the 5th round comp. pick & find a FA vet to replace him.

 

Levi's measurable at the combine listed below, there's a reason he went undrafted

https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/levi-wallace

 

Dane Jacksons performance allows to move on from Paying Levi 10M AAV.  Replace this position in the Draft.