Spotrac has Levi Wallace valued @ $9M/yr. Thoughts?

[Estro]

I love spotrac.com, Mike Ginniti does a great job & I really like his market valuations for FAs to be.

 

He's very thorough in his breakdowns, but I think hus value for Levi is off.

 

Levi coming off of a steady 2020 season hit FA and ended up coming vacation to the Bills on a 1 yr deal that payed him a little more than $1M.  1 year later coming g off another steady year, spotrac now has Levi valued @ $9M per year.  Doesn't seem to pass the sniff test.  Levi has been a steady, solid player, but it appears no one valued him last year even @ the $2.5-3M range so I don't see how he's suddenly going to find 3x or even 4x that much on the open market.

 

I think hes worth a lot more than the $1M he played for last season, but I'd be surprised if he finds north of $6M on the open market. Don't forget teams don't love slow corners and Levi is a very limited athlete by CB standards. I think the Bills will offer him a 3 year extension in the $4M per year range and hold firm.

 

If he finds $6M or better on the open market, give me the 5th round comp. pick & find a FA vet to replace him.

 

Levi's measurable at the combine listed below, there's a reason he went undrafted

https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/levi-wallace

 

Edited February 6, 2022 by Estro

[Special K]

I don’t see the Bills spending that much to keep him....his replacement will likely come in the draft.

[No_Matter_What]

This is very interesting topic and my only contribution is that I have no idea

 

My only guess is that if WE sign him, it will not be for more than 5-6M AAV. But I have no idea how realistic that is.

Edited February 6, 2022 by No_Matter_What

[klos63]

He's a 2? season starter on a top defense at a premium position. He's gonna get a big raise. Not sure if we can afford him. Too bad, he's solid. Expect a CB in the first round.

[BarleyNY]

I was surprised both that we got him for what we did last season and what Spotrac now has him valued at.  It’s probably time to move on and draft a replacement.  We should also look for a serviceable value CB in FA.  Maybe Levi doesn’t get what he expects on the FA market.  It’s best for all to tell him to go and see what he can get, but ask him to keep us in mind when he sees what teams are offering.  Maybe it’ll be worth bringing him back.  If not, congratulate him on his new contract, thank him for what he did here and wish him well going forward. 

[ColoradoBills]

While a good argument could be made that $9M is too high it just shows that generally speaking FAs are often overpaid.

 

While there are exceptions to every rule the age old view of building through the draft and use FAs to plug holes with a select small

number of high dollar FAs seems to be true.  Well, true to me IMO.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

Hahahaha no. 

 

I know we are a little hard on him on this board and a little quick to replace, but there is no way that we are going to shell out that kind of dough. I would much rather just draft a guy and let Dane Jackson fight it out.

[ColoradoBills]

3 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I was surprised both that we got him for what we did last season and what Spotrac now has him valued at.  It’s probably time to move on and draft a replacement.  We should also look for a serviceable value CB in FA.  Maybe Levi doesn’t get what he expects on the FA market.  It’s best for all to tell him to go and see what he can get, but ask him to keep us in mind when he sees what teams are offering.  Maybe it’ll be worth bringing him back.  If not, congratulate him on his new contract, thank him for what he did here and wish him well going forward. 

 

With the cap getting lowered due to Covid it seems a lot of FAs were underpaid last year.

While I have just started comparing last year to this year it seems to me that there is limited amount of money chasing a lot of

FAs again this year.  I'm hoping Beane can find some good players for a reasonable cost.

[Robert Paulson]

he is better than most of this board give him credit for.  if the coaches would have allowed him to press/hold in the last 13 seconds we would be in the super bowl

 

[Saxum]

8 minutes ago, klos63 said:

He's a 2? season starter on a top defense at a premium position. He's gonna get a big raise. Not sure if we can afford him. Too bad, he's solid. Expect a CB in the first round.

 

I have been hearing that people expect him to be replaced with 1st round CB.

I cannot see Beane investing another 1st round pick on CB when he is paying for one not on rookie CB contract and has paid for Johnson.  

Major reason for 1st round players is 5th year option but I do not see advantage here.  Maybe a 2nd round pick as CB.

[ColoradoBills]

2 minutes ago, Robert Paulson said:

he is better than most of this board give him credit for.  if the coaches would have allowed him to press/hold in the last 13 seconds we would be in the super bowl

 

 

Could very well be true RP.  

[frostbitmic]

Sportrac doesn't have to pay Levi, if they did have to pay him, it wouldn't be anywhere near 9M.

 

Offer him 4yrs/14M. If he accepts it, welcome back. If he finds a better payday elsewhere, thanks for your services.

 

I think CB is at or near the top of the Bills draft list.

[ColoradoBills]

1 minute ago, Limeaid said:

 

I have been hearing that people expect him to be replaced with 1st round CB.

I cannot see Beane investing another 1st round pick on CB when he is paying for one not on rookie CB contract and has paid for Johnson.  

Major reason for 1st round players is 5th year option but I do not see advantage here.  Maybe a 2nd round pick as CB.

 

There does seems to some evidence that they can pick out CB talent very well.  If that is the case, you make a great point.

[billsbackto81]

9 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I was surprised both that we got him for what we did last season and what Spotrac now has him valued at.  It’s probably time to move on and draft a replacement.  We should also look for a serviceable value CB in FA.  Maybe Levi doesn’t get what he expects on the FA market.  It’s best for all to tell him to go and see what he can get, but ask him to keep us in mind when he sees what teams are offering.  Maybe it’ll be worth bringing him back.  If not, congratulate him on his new contract, thank him for what he did here and wish him well going forward. 

Why? He was a UFA last year and nobody was knocking down his door. At least this year he was able to show more ability due to Tre going down and will likely get a decent bump in salary somewhere if not in Buffalo. 

 

He's just one of those players that means more to us than some other team. How much more? 9 mil? 

 

Woof!! Good luck Levi.....

[Warcodered]

22 minutes ago, Estro said:

I love spotrac.com, Mike Ginniti does a great job & I really like his market valuations for FAs to be.

 

He's very thorough in his breakdowns, but I think hus value for Levi is off.

 

Levi coming off of a steady 2020 season hit FA and ended up coming vacation to the Bills on a 1 yr deal that payed him a little more than $1M.  1 year later coming g off another steady year, spotrac now has Levi valued @ $9M per year.  Doesn't seem to pass the sniff test.  Levi has been a steady, solid player, but it appears no one valued him last year even @ the $2.5-3M range so I don't see how he's suddenly going to find 3x or even 4x that much on the open market.

 

I think hes worth a lot more than the $1M he played for last season, but I'd be surprised if he finds north of $6M on the open market. Don't forget teams don't love slow corners and Levi is a very limited athlete by CB standards. I think the Bills will offer him a 3 year extension in the $4M per year range and hold firm.

 

If he finds $6M or better on the open market, give me the 5th round comp. pick & find a FA vet to replace him.

 

Levi's measurable at the combine listed below, there's a reason he went undrafted

https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/levi-wallace

 

I mean the difference between that year and this one is White went down and Levi had to fill in at CB1 and the defense didn't seem to have a huge drop off.

[Saxum]

1 minute ago, Warcodered said:

I mean the difference between that year and this one is White went down and Levi had to fill in at CB1 and the defense didn't seem to have a huge drop off.

 

There was not a huge drop off when our safeties and Milano could cover but against better teams there was definitely a big impact.

[Bangarang]

4 minutes ago, frostbitmic said:

Sportrac doesn't have to pay Levi, if they did have to pay him, it wouldn't be anywhere near 9M.

 

Offer him 4yrs/14M. If he accepts it, welcome back. If he finds a better payday elsewhere, thanks for your services.

 

I think CB is at or near the top of the Bills draft list.

That’s such an insulting offer that would never even get presented. 

[BarleyNY]

12 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

With the cap getting lowered due to Covid it seems a lot of FAs were underpaid last year.

While I have just started comparing last year to this year it seems to me that there is limited amount of money chasing a lot of

FAs again this year.  I'm hoping Beane can find some good players for a reasonable cost.

That’s a good point about the cap decreasing last season.  A lot of FAs did what Wallace did - took a cheap one year deal with an eye on getting paid this year.  That’s a good reason to expect him to leave.  He had to wait an extra year to finally get his payday, so I’m sure that will be of utmost importance to him this off-season. 
 

As for available FA money this year, a lot it teams kicked cap from last year to this year to smooth out their cap hit curve.  I expect that to taper a bit, but there will be more of it this off-season.  Plus soon teams will create a lot of space through cuts, restructures, etc. 

Edited February 6, 2022 by BarleyNY

[klos63]

7 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

I have been hearing that people expect him to be replaced with 1st round CB.

I cannot see Beane investing another 1st round pick on CB when he is paying for one not on rookie CB contract and has paid for Johnson.  

Major reason for 1st round players is 5th year option but I do not see advantage here.  Maybe a 2nd round pick as CB.

have to also keep in mind , no guarantee that Tre will be back to start the season or if he is up to his All Pro quality. I read a report after his injury discussing NFL players returning from ACL, other than QB's. They rarely come back with the same quality as before the injury.

[frostbitmic]

5 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

I have been hearing that people expect him to be replaced with 1st round CB.

I cannot see Beane investing another 1st round pick on CB when he is paying for one not on rookie CB contract and has paid for Johnson.  

Major reason for 1st round players is 5th year option but I do not see advantage here.  Maybe a 2nd round pick as CB.

I think that this is the perfect time to draft a 1st round CB. Drafting one in the first gives you the 5th year option, plus by the time a CB would need to get paid, Tre's big contract would be in the past.

 

We also don't know when Tre' will be ready to return and Levi could be out of our price range.