Bills 2021 rookie class ranked 27th in league

[NastyNateSoldiers]

22 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

This is what happens with teams who draft very late.

 

First, you don't get a shot till in this case 29 other teams have picked. And second your roster is a ton stronger and it's hard for rookies to get many snaps.

 

It's just what happens. In a few years we'll have a better idea.

Not necessarily some teams put on clinics picking at the bottom of the rounds. Look at The Steelers all these yrs or the Ravens and even the Chiefs . 

[RyanC883]

3 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Last year’s top pick was … Stefon Diggs, who ended up being the leading receiver in the entire league.

 

that wasn’t a pick 2 drafts ago.  that was a traded pick.   difference. 

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, RyanC883 said:

 

that wasn’t a pick 2 drafts ago.  that was a traded pick.   difference. 

Not really in terms of a pick spent on projected performance and value.

[Nitro]

23 days to the combine.  81 to the draft.   These discussions will feed the need for football fanatics.   

[JaCrispy]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

Not really in terms of a pick spent on projected performance and value.

True, but I think people are trying to highlight that Beane hasn’t evaluated talent, in the top of the draft, very well...

 

Diggs is an outlier because he was already a star in the league...So, while the Bills did get good value, it’s really outside the point of the argument...

[Bronxbomber21]

On 2/5/2022 at 12:02 PM, Conlan58 said:

Based on this regimes draft history vs. trade history- I would not bat an eye at them deciding to package this years first and maybe another later pick for a proven commodity like they did with the Diggs trade. 

Saquon Barkley please 

[BillsFan619]

54 minutes ago, Bronxbomber21 said:

Saquon Barkley please 

You would trade a first for Barkley?

 

Even with his injury history?

[bubba2018]

23 minutes ago, BillsFan619 said:

You would trade a first for Barkley?

 

Even with his injury history?

It’s tempting but with Daboll there now he’s not going to trade his best offensive player if he wants to develop Daniel Jones. 

[Augie]

On 2/5/2022 at 1:19 PM, NewEra said:

Interesting that every player drafted by Beane in 2021 was on an active roster throughout the majority of the season. 

 

It’s hard to just MAKE a good team, much less contribute early. We have one of the best teams in the league, and there’s a reason for that. They have been drafting pretty well, and building a roster to last. We are not drafting and praying they can all make an immediate impact. We want help from the top 2-3 guys, and younger cheaper contributors going forward from guys after that. We got that. 

 

Rankings like this are silly, but my takeaway is…..the Jets are still the Jets. 😋

 

 

.

Edited February 7, 2022 by Augie

[Thurman#1]

On 2/6/2022 at 8:12 AM, JayBaller10 said:

Impact plays/splash plays, call it what you want, it’s semantics and points to the same issue - Tremaine doesn’t make many of them. “Ignoring all the impact plays that don’t happen” is quite possibly the most baseless argument I’ve ever heard one use to defend a player. It’s an argument built on supposition and assumption. We might as well say, “Mario Addison makes impact plays when he rushes and forces the QB off his spot - even if he misses the sack - because it prevented the QB from seeing a player running free in the secondary.” That’s your argument.

I don’t judge Tremaine or the rest of the defense by what they do against teams like the Jets, Texans, and Panthers. How does he and everyone else fare when they face a competent offense?
 

“Tremaine doesn’t get sacks because he’s not asked to rush the passer” (actually he does rush the passer, but sucks at it), “Tremaine doesn’t get interceptions because QBs don’t like throwing at him” (truth is he lacks ball skills, awareness, and has suspect hands). What else? Oh, “Tremaine doesn’t force fumbles because Bills defenders aren’t coached to go after the ball” (it’s preached ad nauseam to go after the football, I’ve heard defenders say this time and time again and even brought in Peanut Tillman to teach the technique).
The sad thing is you can’t even recognize the amount of excuses you’re making for the player because you’re convinced he’s something more than he is. 
If you watch the Beane presser, you’ll also see he describes Tremaine as “getting better”  playing with strength, getting off of blocks, and developing the alpha male mentality leaders need. You’ll also see it’s quite obvious from Beane’s body language and the way he speaks about Tremaine, he’s not completely sold on the player and like all of us, wants to see his game raise a level before talks of a contract extension. 
I half think you’re just trolling with your excuses.

 

It's not a baseless argument, so much as it is an argument that's inconvenient for you. It's in fact a completely sensible argument. For instance, Deion Sanders didn't get many INTS anymore late in his career. He wasn't making the splash plays anymore. By your logic that would mean he sucked. In fact, it meant nobody was throwing near him much. He was incredibly effective precisely because he stopped offensive plays from happening. Players absolutely should get a ton of credit for preventing impact plays that don't happen. It's hard to quantify, but it's still a thing.

 

And on Addison, you're right. Clearly, you don't know you're right, but you are. A guy who forces a QB off the spot, even without making a sack, is making a good play, lowering the offense's chances. Addison doesn't do that nearly so often as we'd like, but yes, when he does he's absolutely making a big play.

 

I'd agree with you as far as Tremaine isn't great at rushing the passer. But arguing that he does rush the passer a lot is utter nonsense. No he doesn't. It happens occasionally but far from often.

 

And I already addressed the Tillman technique in the original post. Bills defenders are taught to go after the balls situationally. If you're the first guy, you generally need to get him down. If you're coming head-on the Tillman technique won't really work. It works well when you're coming from behind or from the side and he doesn't see you, and also when you're the second or third guy and he's already going down. Edmunds is generally very visible and is either the first guy or easy to see. Would I like to see him get more? Sure.

 

The sad thing here is is that you can't realize that while a few of your arguments make some real sense, that your dislike for the guy means you're desperately subject to confirmation bias and will throw in any argument including plenty that make no sense.

 

They love him. Beane said exactly those words in the final PC this year. It's not a sure thing, particularly if he insists on getting all the money he possibly can. If he wants $16 or $17M, he'll probably get it, and not in Buffalo. But folks don't want to admit this but the odds on Tremaine being here a long time are pretty damn good.

 

I mean, you really feel that Beane's body language shows that he doesn't like Tremaine. Good lord! That's so far into confirmation bias it's pathetic.

 

Edited February 7, 2022 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

18 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

Not necessarily some teams put on clinics picking at the bottom of the rounds. Look at The Steelers all these yrs or the Ravens and even the Chiefs . 

 

 

I didn't argue it happens that way every time. Just that on average that is how teams should be judged, particularly when you're only judging based on the first year of the draft class.

 

It's harder to get snaps as a rookie on a team with a roster that's already good. And it's easier to get players who can contribute early when you're drafting earlier in each round.

 

I also didn't argue that some teams don't do well at drafting, even late. Just that it's harder to draft well late and that later picks might well need more time and development. And if you do do well late you deserve more credit for it than teams doing well drafting early.

 

So for example, you're right that the Steelers drafted well all those years (not so consistently lately, though 2017 was pretty sensational, but they were the gold standard for a long time). But how much of that happened as rookies. The Steelers are famous for doing a terrific job of developing them and working them in, but for not getting a lot of use out of more than a handful of rookies.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

So for example, you're right that the Steelers drafted well all those years (not so consistently lately, though 2017 was pretty sensational, but they were the gold standard for a long time). But how much of that happened as rookies. The Steelers are famous for doing a terrific job of developing them and working them in, but for not getting a lot of use out of more than a handful of rookies.

 

 

This is spot on with the Steelers. The impact of their end of the round draft picks has often not really been felt in year 1. Take Bud Dupree as an example he didn't become a starter until year 3, Cam Heywood the same and David DeCastro who ended up an all pro and multiple time probowler at guard, didn't start as a rookie before taking over a starting spot his second year. 

 

And part of that is that they had a similar philosophy as Beane has demonstrated last year at the end of rounds. If you are drafting late round 1 all the true 1st round grades have gone. So take a guy with special traits of your next tier of grades. Someone with the potential to be special even if it takes some time (the truth is Groot was better as a rookie than many expected). 

 

Beane's worst picks - Ford and (unless it turns around soon) Epenesa - were when he tried to find players at spots where we were filling holes. 

 

[colin]

to me the groot and basham picks don't make sense.  i can see drafting one of them, but drafting both with our holes at TE2, CB2, OG/C just seemed like going all in on pass rush, but doing it at a sort of half pace, since we didn't go after anyone after low balling jj watt (that was a smart move tho, not paying up for him).

 

i think aj epenesa being so terrible necessitated the pick of groot and or basham tho.  out single biggest issue as an organization at the moment is the big resources we have dumped into the DL and front 7 just haven't gotten enough return.  oliver is nice, and i think groot will be a player, but all the free agent money and pics we have in there haven't really gotten us what we need.

 

all these JAGS look a lot better if we get a stud or two in there.  i'm going hard for chandler jones this offseason.  he, oliver, phillips and groot on the line can get your qb feeling queezy.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

The pressure is on our GM, scouts and coaches to not waste one of the best QB talents we have ever had. I could see Allen start getting agitated after 2 more years of bad drafting and failing in the playoffs. 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

The pressure is on our GM, scouts and coaches to not waste one of the best QB talents we have ever had. I could see Allen start getting agitated after 2 more years of bad drafting and failing in the playoffs. 

 

I can't.

[JMF2006]

Once you have an established competitive roster your draft picks are going to have a harder time making the 53.

 

That 2 were snatched off the PS on to another teams 53 speaks volumes to the quality and depth here.

 

Nobody was claiming the PS squad in years past and the Bills did a lot of dumpster diving themselves.

 

Pretty hard to get a day one starter at pick 25-32 unless you had major cap issues and cap casulties.

 

JMHO 

[corta765]

I am only going to say this. Peter King a few years ago (maybe more recent) had a thing on the number of rookies who started and played the entire season from start to finish and it was 34 players in that class. Everyone really wants to have their players be impact people from day one but truthfully if you have more then one rookie starting throughout that is pretty decent. The sport really is about the long term and where guys are 3-4 years later. Obviously when you are in a SB window you want things as fast as possible so I get the angst. Additionally this is a reason that it is advised teams load up on picks so you have a better hit rate as drafting across the board is generally 40/60 success rate.

 

In regards to the Bills drafting I guess I would say they hit two big homeruns the first two years and have been average since:

2017: 3 major impact starters Tre White, Matt Milano, & Dion Dawkins... and a Peterman  3 rookie starters year 1

2018: Their first 6 picks are all players who start now in various ways: Allen, Edmunds, Phillips, Taron Johnson, Siran Neal, & Wyatt Teller (ugh)

2019: Oliver & Knox took time to arrive but they are here. Singletary seems to have found his way. Ford is a bust.

 

The three years are really a big portion of the core of this team and Buffalo found their superstar QB & CB, Pro Bowl LT, serviceable LB, and then some decent starts at DT 2x, Slot CB, SAF, TE, & RB.

 

Heading into the 2020 draft in many ways you felt like they couldn't mess up drafting as their hit rate was really good. They got Diggs with their 1st in 20 and only Tyler Bass & Gabriel Davis have really made a mark in this draft and 21 they got Spencer Brown with middling results across the board.

 

So yea the last two years haven't had some of the hot picks or early success that the first years especially brought. But Oliver & Knox both took 3 years to truly become what they are today. So patience unfortunately is the key either way.

[Brand J]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

It's not a baseless argument, so much as it is an argument that's inconvenient for you. It's in fact a completely sensible argument. For instance, Deion Sanders didn't get many INTS anymore late in his career. He wasn't making the splash plays anymore. By your logic that would mean he sucked. In fact, it meant nobody was throwing near him much. He was incredibly effective precisely because he stopped offensive plays from happening. Players absolutely should get a ton of credit for preventing impact plays that don't happen. It's hard to quantify, but it's still a thing.

 

And on Addison, you're right. Clearly, you don't know you're right, but you are. A guy who forces a QB off the spot, even without making a sack, is making a good play, lowering the offense's chances. Addison doesn't do that nearly so often as we'd like, but yes, when he does he's absolutely making a big play.

 

I'd agree with you as far as Tremaine isn't great at rushing the passer. But arguing that he does rush the passer a lot is utter nonsense. No he doesn't. It happens occasionally but far from often.

 

And I already addressed the Tillman technique in the original post. Bills defenders are taught to go after the balls situationally. If you're the first guy, you generally need to get him down. If you're coming head-on the Tillman technique won't really work. It works well when you're coming from behind or from the side and he doesn't see you, and also when you're the second or third guy and he's already going down. Edmunds is generally very visible and is either the first guy or easy to see. Would I like to see him get more? Sure.

 

The sad thing here is is that you can't realize that while a few of your arguments make some real sense, that your dislike for the guy means you're desperately subject to confirmation bias and will throw in any argument including plenty that make no sense.

 

They love him. Beane said exactly those words in the final PC this year. It's not a sure thing, particularly if he insists on getting all the money he possibly can. If he wants $16 or $17M, he'll probably get it, and not in Buffalo. But folks don't want to admit this but the odds on Tremaine being here a long time are pretty damn good.

 

I mean, you really feel that Beane's body language shows that he doesn't like Tremaine. Good lord! That's so far into confirmation bias it's pathetic.

 

Let’s make one thing clear: I don’t dislike Edmunds. I’ve never called him trash or terrible and would invite you to prove me a liar. He does some good things on the field, of course, but also leaves a lot to be desired. 

 

It’s evident both of us have biases when assessing his play, though yours are farther from reality. Are you seriously comparing our MLB and what he brings to the field to Hall of Fame CB Deion Sanders? Have you gone so far to convince yourself his impact is comparable? Your previous post was filled with excuses for why Edmunds registered 0 sacks, 0 FFs, 0 FRs, and 1 INT, despite being largely healthy and playing 100% of the snaps, but now you’ve outdone yourself. 

Quick, what’s Edmunds most notable play in his 4 year career? What stands out to you more than any other, the play that has so far defined his career? Does he have ONE? In what big game did he make his presence felt? Someone like you and your bias might tell me the Chiefs because he took away Mahomes first read forcing him to pick on the other defenders. What do you say to PFF’s poor coverage ratings? Are they biased as well and doing a poor job assessing his responsibilities? To illustrate just how much you grab at straws, you even argued that I said Edmunds rushes the passer a lot. Go back and re-read. I said he does rush the passer, but sucks at it. He gets stood up by RBs. But someone like you would tell me he’s doing his 1/11, opening the play so others could do their job. 

 

I said my biggest takeaway from Beane’s season ending presser was that he praised Edmunds for his role in the defense, as far as getting players lined up and shouldering that responsibility. That was what I felt was his most glowing remarks. I didn’t comment on all his other snippets that included “would we like to see him get better at…” because he didn’t say anything I found revealing. Call it confirmation bias. I’m willing to own up to mine, I live in a space closer to reality, but wouldn’t expect someone who compares Edmunds to Deion freaking Sanders to realize the extent of his biases. Good lord is right.

[Locomark]

So far this team’s last 3 DE picks have been pretty mediocre to poor and that is a huge weakness for us. Groot seems to be the only one with a decent ceiling just due to tools available alone with the other 2 having to show a lot more to become more than role players. We need at least 1 dominant pash rusher if we want to win a SB or more. 

[Nextmanup]

On 2/6/2022 at 11:14 AM, NastyNateSoldiers said:

Not necessarily some teams put on clinics picking at the bottom of the rounds. Look at The Steelers all these yrs or the Ravens and even the Chiefs . 

And lots of teams picking at the top, year after year, remain trash heaps.

 

People need to remember that teams do NOT have the draft order correctly analyzed...so there is not necessarily a huge correlation between draft spot and talent of player received, especially the further you get from the very top of the draft.

 

If NFL teams knew how to assess talent properly, Tyreek Hill wouldn't have been taken 165th overall, or have been passed over by every team in the league four--and some teams five--times.

 

For example.