How many years can Josh be an Elite QB with his playing style?

[Buffalo Boy]

   The closest we’ve seen previously to Josh is Cam Newton. They aren’t the same but size, speed, arm strength, moxie coming out of college put them in their own group.

   Cam was drafted in 2011. He played under Rob Chudzinski for his first to years….then Mike Shula came to town.

With him a ridiculous amount of Cam carrying the ball came also.

    Cam had his first shoulder injury in 2016 ( partial right rotator cuff tear) the year after the SB. In 2018, he started very well and his shoulder received it’s Coup de Grace againt the Steelers around the halfway point. Cam’s career as an elite weapon ended then. 7 1/2 seasons. 
    Those of you out there claiming Josh is “big” and “ it’s his style of play”  are sticking your heads in the sand.

   We all know that Josh is capable of doing what he puts his mind to…..like becoming a passer who rarely runs.

THIS could extend his useful career into his late 30’s at a minimum.

    Beane addressed the need for a competent rushing attack in his EOY presser. Couple that with the additions of new OC, QB and O line coach and hopefully we are legit heading down that path.

    If we keep running Josh like we have been, all season long, he will be a shell of himself in 3 to 5 seasons and probably washed up in his early thirties.

   

Edited February 5, 2022 by Buffalo Boy

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

 

 Good thing the ratio isn't 27.8% over the last 2 seasons. During that time he's attempted 1218 passes and ran the ball 224 times, that's not anywhere near 27.8%. 

 

 I don't know where you got these numbers, but his run to pass ratio didn't increase the last 2 years over the previous 2, it actually went down quite a bit????? In his first 2 years he had 781 passes and 198 rushes, as I mentioned above the last 2 years he attempted 1218 passes while only rushing 224 times. If he didn't miss the 4 1/2 games as a rookie he actually would've had more rushes his first 2 years with over 400 fewer passes.

 

 Now that we don't have to worry about that it will leave plenty of time for people to worry about other things.  

 

 

Edited February 5, 2022 by LOVEMESOMEBILLS

[Mango]

5 hours ago, MJS said:

The thing that is unique about Josh is he is an elite passer with a cannon arm AND an elite running QB.

 

In 5 more years if he can't run it like he used to, fine, he is still an elite passer with a cannon for an arm. He is getting smarter and more and more he is able to dissect defenses. So soon he will be an elite QB mentally, not just physically (if he isn't already), so even if he loses some physical ability over time to throw it, he'll still be an elite QB.

 

Still, I voted 10 more years. Guys don't often have 19 year careers. Anything over 14 or 15 years with a QB is just bonus. He has plenty of time to win some Superbowls.

So let me start by saying Josh is already better than Cam. 
 

But they have a lot of similar traits and a similar playing style. The biggest concern is their similarity in how they see defenders as a ball carrier. Josh is a better passer but the physicality in Cams game still had him fall off a cliff. 
 

Josh has to learn to protect himself sooner rather than later. 
 

That’s my biggest fear. He goes the way of Cam and suddenly blows because of all the hits he has taken.

[Mark92]

I hate to think of the day that he has to become strictly a pocket passer.  Not that he wouldn't be great at it, just that it will be sad to remember what he used to be able to do.  

[BillsShredder83]

I think there's a recency bias going on here. Dabolls qb keepers were weird during the first 3/4ths of the season. They became a bit necessary and effective end of season.

Also I think Josh had the handcuffs taken off in playoffs. So eliminate dabolls stupid 3yd pickups. Limit them to redzone situationally. Take the handcuffs off in the playoffs.

 

Scrambling has always been good 2go, always some big chunks to be had with minimal hits.

[Niagara Dude]

6 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Josh Allen has now been an Elite QB for 2 years. He's going to be 26 by next season.

 

I love him. He can have my babies... and I'm a dude.

 

Regardless, even though he sure as hell seems like Superman... he's not. 

 

I watch Josh Allen and firmly believe this team will win multiple Super Bowls with him as our QB regardless, but how long will he last playing the way he has played the last 2 years? I say 2 years because I think these last 2 years were about the sweet spot of the run/pass ratio.

 

So what do you guys think about how long he can last with this playing style?

 

And for some references as far as some notable "running" QBs compared with JA over the career and 2020-2021 run% of total QB plays.

 

Josh Allen (4 years): 21.1% (but it's been 27.8% the last 2 years)

Russell Wilson (10 year): 17.9%

Mike Vick (13 years with 2 year hiatus): 27.1%

Cam Newton (11 years): 25%

Steve Young (15 years): 17.4%

Randall Cunningham (16 years): 18%

Lamar Jackson (4 years): 46.3%

John Elway (16 years): 10.7%

Rg3 (7 years): 24.2%

 

 

I look at all of this and wonder if our Super Bowl window without adjustment is 5 years. I don't think this will be a huge problem because he's smart and is incredibly well built physically.

 

Still makes you wonder if he will last til he's 40.

 

The Bills need a dynamic explosive RB so Allen has less designed runs, sorry to Singletary lovers on this site but 4.65 forty is too slow.  You saw that in the KC game,  he missed open holes because not enough burst/speed to the line. I like Singletary as a primary back-up but we need to upgrade the RB position for the sake of Allen taking less hits.    

[muppy]

5 hours ago, billsbackto81 said:

He's not one to shy away and he seems to like designed runs and contact. The way he gets amped up whenever he bowls over defenders to get a 1st down shows you he's not stopping anytime soon. He loves that 💩!

 

So my answer is,...as long as he can.

 

Josh can have a prime Thurman Thomas beside him and he'd still tote the rock. It's just who he is.

 

He may run less as time goes on but he won't stop it entirely.

If and this is IF #17 ever decides to not take off and gallop THAT imo would be a sad sad day. The fact he is sooo gifted and talented physically ..if he is shutting down his run game...to me that says he has lost his swagger and confidence.....and imo Josh Allen is too mentally tough to ever lose THAT part of his game.....he' a Leader..He's a field general Warrior out there..he will do what it takes to WIN.  I say we have him for as ever long as HE wants to play.

....My guess is he would love a long career. Im buckled In for a Long Ride.

 

m 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

6 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Josh Allen has now been an Elite QB for 2 years. He's going to be 26 by next season.

 

I love him. He can have my babies... and I'm a dude.

 

Regardless, even though he sure as hell seems like Superman... he's not. 

 

I watch Josh Allen and firmly believe this team will win multiple Super Bowls with him as our QB regardless, but how long will he last playing the way he has played the last 2 years? I say 2 years because I think these last 2 years were about the sweet spot of the run/pass ratio.

 

So what do you guys think about how long he can last with this playing style?

 

And for some references as far as some notable "running" QBs compared with JA over the career and 2020-2021 run% of total QB plays.

 

Josh Allen (4 years): 21.1% (but it's been 27.8% the last 2 years)

Russell Wilson (10 year): 17.9%

Mike Vick (13 years with 2 year hiatus): 27.1%

Cam Newton (11 years): 25%

Steve Young (15 years): 17.4%

Randall Cunningham (16 years): 18%

Lamar Jackson (4 years): 46.3%

John Elway (16 years): 10.7%

Rg3 (7 years): 24.2%

 

 

I look at all of this and wonder if our Super Bowl window without adjustment is 5 years. I don't think this will be a huge problem because he's smart and is incredibly well built physically.

 

Still makes you wonder if he will last til he's 40.

 

Watch clips of younger Big Ben. Dude created with his legs a ton. It’s a good comp. He was still capable later in career when he couldn’t move anymore, but just wasn’t the same. 

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

8 minutes ago, Mango said:

So let me start by saying Josh is already better than Cam. 
 

But they have a lot of similar traits and a similar playing style. The biggest concern is their similarity in how they see defenders as a ball carrier. Josh is a better passer but the physicality in Cams game still had him fall off a cliff. 
 

Josh has to learn to protect himself sooner rather than later. 
 

That’s my biggest fear. He goes the way of Cam and suddenly blows because of all the hits he has taken.

 

 Some context needs to be added to the Cam vs Josh running debate:

 

1.) Not everyone one is built the same and their bodies react differently to getting hit. Some players can take hits for years and years before they decline, for some it happens far sooner. Josh seems to be the former not the latter.

 

2.) Cam was taking alot and I mean alot of big time hits, both while running and while inside the pocket. Josh doesn't take alot of big time hits, he's usually the one dishing out the punishment. Matter of fact I can only recall a few big hits he's taken in his career. The Texans game during his rookie year when he hurt his elbow you can count as one, though it really wasn't a big hit he just got hit in a bad spot. The Pats*** game in 2019 when he got knocked out and the Raiders game last year when he got the left shoulder injury. There may be a few more, but there aren't many. Most of Josh’s runs end by sliding, going out of bounds or getting tackled by someone in the other team's secondary(Someone smaller than him).

 

3.) Cam ran more and was getting sacked more his first 4 years compared to Josh. In Cam's 5th year he ran the ball even more than he had in any of his first 4 years. 

 

 

[Doc]

Hopefully Josh has been using HGH, er, the TB12 method...

[Heitz]

"Let's not talk about leaving, before we're actually at the game..." - Dr. Rick

 

 

[Chandler#81]

[pssst! Hey, bud, wanna get high on some ‘JoshAllen’? Better’n coke, Smack ‘n Ex combined! You won’t come down til Tuesday!

 

Edited February 5, 2022 by Chandler#81

[ControllerOfPlanetX]

How long is his contract? 

[Buffalo Boy]

48 minutes ago, muppy said:

If and this is IF #17 ever decides to not take off and gallop THAT imo would be a sad sad day. The fact he is sooo gifted and talented physically ..if he is shutting down his run game...to me that says he has lost his swagger and confidence.....and imo Josh Allen is too mentally tough to ever lose THAT part of his game.....he' a Leader..He's a field general Warrior out there..he will do what it takes to WIN.  I say we have him for as ever long as HE wants to play.

....My guess is he would love a long career. Im buckled In for a Long Ride.

 

m 

Designed Runs are not Scrambles

He is almost always in control of the hits he takes on scrambles.

[MJS]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

So let me start by saying Josh is already better than Cam. 
 

But they have a lot of similar traits and a similar playing style. The biggest concern is their similarity in how they see defenders as a ball carrier. Josh is a better passer but the physicality in Cams game still had him fall off a cliff. 
 

Josh has to learn to protect himself sooner rather than later. 
 

That’s my biggest fear. He goes the way of Cam and suddenly blows because of all the hits he has taken.

Cam injured his shoulder in the pocket and needed surgery multiple times on it. He never could throw the ball the same after that.

 

It actually doesn't have anything to do with him running the ball and taking hits.

[Buffalo Boy]

4 minutes ago, MJS said:

Cam injured his shoulder in the pocket and needed surgery multiple times on it. He never could throw the ball the same after that.

 

It actually doesn't have anything to do with him running the ball and taking hits.

Because hits aren’t cumulative?

[T master]

How many years has the other elite QB's been elite in their respective careers 🤔 ? 

 

Brady 22 yrs 

Manning 18 yrs

Brees 20 yrs

Favre 20 yrs

Kelly 13 yrs including the 2 with the Gamblers which i still have a hard time forgiving him for ! 

 

So despite some kind of huge injury or debilitating disease i'd say Josh is good for about 15 yrs at least .

Edited February 5, 2022 by T master

[MJS]

Just now, Buffalo Boy said:

Because hits aren’t cumulative?

For Cam the specific issue with his shoulder is not an accumulation of hits as a running QB. He got his shoulder torn up from one hit, then later injured it again. These were specific events in his career, not an accumulation of lots of hits while outside the pocket.

 

Cam's shoulder injuries happened when he was in the pocket. Many of his hits to the head also happened when he was in the pocket. Refs were not protecting him like other QBs, even when he was in the pocket.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

You'd be the one having his babies. 

 

I love Josh but 😆 I have to agree. 
 

a bit of an obsession going on here 

A bit of overcompensation for the initial dislike of the pick by tranny

[Chicken Boo]

Taking hard shots isn't good for any NFL player.  Deebo, as great as he is, is going to break down if they keep using him like they do.  

 

You have guys like Ben and Cam.  Ben lasted a great while, but Pittsburgh never used him like Allen is currently being used. 

 

Cam Newton wasn't a small guy.  Not sure if his body broke down or if playing with the injured shoulder his last years in Carolina did him in.