Kurt Warner - Josh Allen deserved the W

[HOUSE]

20 hours ago, Gugny said:

What the ***** is a layup?

 

IN LONDON, It's a Murphy bed, you have to push the handle down before closing or it scratches the frame

Apparently Josh Allen is not good at this

 

 

 

Edited February 5, 2022 by HOUSE

[Bermuda Triangle]

On 2/4/2022 at 11:31 AM, Dr. Who said:

If Nick Wright has come around, the gig is definitely up.

What does Geoff/Jeoph Schwartz have to say?

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

On 2/4/2022 at 12:40 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

Having watched a lot of Warner's breakdowns a layup to him is a single defender read play. Where it is just read one guy if he stays wide throw to spot X, if he cheats inside throw to spot Y. 

 

I generally like Warner as a guy to break down QB play but I do wonder if it is getting a bit outdated. He is from what @BADOLBILZ has dubbed previously the "cerebral era" of NFL Quarterbacking where he and Brady and the Mannings and Brees beat you with their brain. They made the right decision 95% of the time and that made execution easy. Not saying Allen and Mahomes and Herbert etc can't play neck up, they clearly can... but they have the physical gifts that allows them to make a wrong decision and get a good outcome more often than those guys in the 00s and early 10s could. This generation of NFL Quarterbacks are shifting the dial a bit back towards physical gifts over mental gifts. The "cerebral era" is probably over with #12 retiring. 

well said.

 

i found the Warner analysis re the “lay ups” to be weird. He dissected a play where Josh was meant to read the end, and he was a bit slow in doing so, which meant he lost the chance to hit Singletary in the flat for an easy 5 yards. 
 

 josh and others like him aren’t looking to the flat as their first read— which seemed to be the entire premise of Warner’s analysis. 

 

if there is something that josh legitimately can improve on, it is being able to throw better balls for his receivers to get YAC. But I think the lack of YAC is still Mostly on the type of receivers we have and the type of routes we run.

[CSBill]

On 2/4/2022 at 11:25 AM, Dr. Who said:

Honestly, at this point, anyone with an ounce of simple instinct for self-preservation has got to know its no longer even possible to play the skeptic card for click bate without appearing utterly clueless.

Unless you’re from the Boston media; then, yes, you’re utterly clueless. 

[JustHewIt]

On 2/4/2022 at 11:33 AM, PromoTheRobot said:

 

This was Kurt's take before the Patriots playoff game:

 

 

Kurt himself even took exception to my response.

 

 

How about those "layups" now?

The point Warner failed to answer to, and the most important IMO, is that Josh is held to a ridiculous standard that no other young quarterback is.  The goalposts are constantly moving.  He's an athletic running QB who can't stand in the pocket and throw.  Okay he's standing in the pocket, but he can't throw with accuracy.  Okay, he's throwing with accuracy but he can't hit the short stuff.  Okay, he's hitting the short stuff but he can't throw deep.  Okay, he can throw deep but he can't do it two games in a row.  Okay, he did it two games in a row but he can't do it in the playoffs....

It's exhausting to listen to, and I should probably take the advice of the poster above who just records the games and FFs through all the nonsense.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 2/4/2022 at 11:08 AM, eball said:

 

And by the way, if ANY of you go see his stupid movie I'll personally come to your house and whoop your ass.

 

If you haven't seen it, how do you know it's a stupid movie?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 2/4/2022 at 11:22 AM, jletha said:

Kurt is allowed to grade on whatever scale he wants. But one thing I didnt understand with this specific criticism is that he admits he makes up for "missing layups" with his tremendous physical talent. Which implies that he is getting the job done, just not in the way Kurt wants. It almost comes of that he would give him more praise Josh made the layups but wasnt able to impose his will physically. If youre getting the job done then youre getting the job done. I guess isnt the point (or at least a point) of getting a physically gifted QB that they dont have to be perfectly cerebral. The margin for error increases. Otherwise youre Baker Mayfield.

 

I guess if youre grading Josh as a pure passer its fair. But if youre grading him as a QB capable of moving the ball down the field then it seems incorrect.

 

This is a very astute observation.

 

I think we all evaluate other people in the framework of what a "good job" or a "great job" looks like to us.  Warner made it to the NFL and won as an NFL QB by being a rockstar at rapid decision making and by being deadly accurate in the throws he took.  He was very much a timing and rhythm passer.   In the short to intermediate passing game, he was coached to always take the surest throw.   Like the original WCO, the idea was to nibble the defense to death with runs and the intermediate passing game or checkdowns with YAC, and then when they smothered that BAMMO, burn them over the top.

 

Watching Josh Allen must feel like nails down a blackboard sound to Kurt, even when Josh is making good reads and completing passes, because Josh's internal decision tree just looks very different than Kurt's.  Josh will frequently pass up the "gimmee" for the higher degree of difficulty intermediate throw that Warner was coached you never take unless the gimmee is covered.  That's why Kurt's commentary on a number of Josh completions for good yardage is a wry "Don't try this at home, Kids" and even on plays where Josh is making completions, he criticizes the play because there was an easier or more straightforward completion Josh passed up.

 

The thing is, for Josh, some of those higher degree of difficulty throws are  actually relatively easy, and the "easy" checkdowns are relatively hard.  It's how his arm worked when he came into the league.  Warner doesn't seem able to account for that in his evaluation.

 

Warner is right that at times, Josh needs better decision making pre- and post- snap.  If he takes the "gimmee" checkdown promptly his checkdown receiver will be able to get YAC.  I would still evaluate Josh's ability to make those throws as "progressing", which is a big improvement from "Awful".    And frankly, defenses have the "book" on Josh's tendencies and used it to stymie our offense at times, because any time a defense assesses that they don't need to defend one part of the game, they choke down somewhere else.  So Josh needs to take and hit more of those "layups" to open up the rest of the passing game.

 

But I think the reason Warner's evaluations grate on and seem unfair to many of us is that he goes beyond that and judges the totality of what Josh does in the framework of the kind of game he played as a QB and the decisions he was coached to make.  So Josh can make a beautiful completion and Warner will criticize it because he passed up an open receiver that would have been an easier throw, and it doesn't seem like a fair evaluation.

 

I'm trying to find a breakdown of one of the Chiefs plays on Twitter.  It was the Davis TD I think, and he successively showed what other receivers were open.  The headings were "ordinary QB take this throw" "good QB take this throw" (Knox was wide open across the middle for the first down) "Goblin QB take this throw"