Don't be surprised if Josh Allen has a bumpy 2022

[dave mcbride]

11 hours ago, beebe said:

 

Allen was a 4th-and-13 incompletion away from finishing 22-of-30 for 227 yards and two TDs vs Chiefs, with 75 yards coming on a blown coverage on a deep pass. Five of eight drives would have ended with a punt or turnover on downs. Obviously, he completed the pass, deserves all the credit in the world for how the Bills closed in that game, and was largely responsible for making the game so memorable. But there was probably a 1-in-4 chance of converting there—even with Dan Sorensen on the field—and the offseason narrative would be much different. 

Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?

[BringBackFlutie]

I have to come back to this because it's bother tf out of me, the more I think about it.

 

The defense the OP describes is the same one we executed vs KC the first time. The only difference is, we rushed 4 and dropped 7, because our strength is in coverage and our weakness is in pass rush. There was a spy- Edmunds- who, not only spied, but repeatedly cut off the crossover throw. It was genius, and we, actually, are the best equipped team in the NFL to run it. Edmunds is like 8 feet tall and fast, so, serves in that role perfectly. We were able to run this scheme the first time because we had White. We couldn't do that the second time because we didn't have him, and still need 4 on the line for any hope of pressure.

 

...The variation of 8 vs 7 and 3 vs 4 may make up some difference for some who have better DL, who could try to use that against Allen, but spies don't really work on him. So they're back to just playing the same thing as last year- drop 7, rush 4, and hope. I get the premise of the OP, but the specific wrinkle that confounded Mahomes, in this particular case, is one of those areas that Allen separates himself athletically. They ARE different QBs, and not every defense will work vs both. Doing the same thing DCs did all last year and adding a spy is like taking a player off the field, for Allen.

 

Does this mean someone won't find something else, just for him? No. I'm curious to see what it might be. Ask Bill Belichick if he can think of any other defenses to try. But the proposed plan won't work unless Allen fails to recognize it for a bit.

 

I'm sorry, but, the OP isnt so reasonable just because it tempers expectations, as it assumes Allen is Mahomes. He isn't. He's a VERY special talent. It's okay to admit that. The more time that passes, the more his wild success becomes the most reasonable expectation. Positive expectations are not irrational ones. 

Edited February 1, 2022 by BringBackFlutie

[Success]

12 hours ago, beebe said:

 

Allen was a 4th-and-13 incompletion away from finishing 22-of-30 for 227 yards and two TDs vs Chiefs, with 75 yards coming on a blown coverage on a deep pass. Five of eight drives would have ended with a punt or turnover on downs. Obviously, he completed the pass, deserves all the credit in the world for how the Bills closed in that game, and was largely responsible for making the game so memorable. But there was probably a 1-in-4 chance of converting there—even with Dan Sorensen on the field—and the offseason narrative would be much different. 

 

What is that even supposed to mean?

 

You know, if Mahomes doesn't make that long pass to Hill on the long 3rd down against San Fran, KC has zero Super Bowls.  Using that same logic, if QB's didn't complete any passes at all, they'd all have completion percentages under 50%.

 

[JESSEFEFFER]

14 hours ago, beebe said:

I'll start with this: I think the Bills are the favorite to earn the 1-seed in the AFC next year. But I think they'll do it with Josh Allen enduring a season that comes up short of the monster expectations that have been placed upon him.

 

I've been reading Chiefs-Bengals postgame coverage, and it's predictably terrible, with the main thesis being that "Mahomes choked" in the 2nd half. It is true: Mahomes put together arguably his worst half as a pro—on the heels of one of his best. But the Bengals deserve credit for putting together a nice defensive plan, one that took advantage of two Chiefs tendencies: Andy's unwillingness to stick to the run; and Mahomes' desire to be aggressive and make plays. The Bengals dropped eight into coverage on roughly half of Mahomes' second half pass attempts, all but begging the Chiefs to run, and also a QB spy, all but eliminating Mahomes' ability to scramble free as he did so often vs Buffalo a week earlier. It worked to perfection. Mahomes kept force feeding passes into tight windows (no one was open) and the Chiefs kept throwing on 2nd-and-5s. The Bengals also got pressure on Mahomes with three-man rushes, sacking him twice in the 2nd half and chasing him around the yard a handful of other times. 

 

Anyway, this isn't the first time Mahomes has been 'solved.' And it won't be the last. Mahomes was downright terrible earlier this year. In a five-week stretch starting with the Bills game, Mahomes had six TDs vs six INTs, easily the worst stretch of play in a four-year career that has ended in either the AFC title game or the Super Bowl every time. Having watched every snap of Mahomes' career, there's no doubt he's better now at age 26 than he was at age 23. He will keep getting better. But he'll keep getting the "Mahomes Treatment," with defensive coordinators literally spending their offseasons inventing ways to stop him. Mahomes saw growth this year in mastering the two-high safety looks that confounded him in the Super Bowl and early in 2021. He became a more patient QB—his best display of patience probably came vs the Bills in the Divisional Round. But in the end, the Bengals got him, throwing new wrinkles at him that other defenses largely avoided; and play calling did Mahomes no favors either (especially in 2nd half.) 

 

All this to say: Josh Allen is about to start getting the Mahomes Treatment. Every team on Buffalo's schedule is going to spend extra time studying him and finding ways to beat him. And someone - perhaps Belichick, but maybe someone else - will find something that works. And every team will copy it. Doesn't mean they'll shut him down. Doesn't mean the Bills will start losing to teams like the Jets and Dolphins. But there will be turbulence, and I suspect you will see him go through a slump and his numbers will decline in 2022. 

 

The counter argument is that Allen's numbers should have been even better in 2021 than they were. I don't think any team played in worse weather conditions than the Bills did this year. The uncommonly easy schedule partially offsets that perhaps, but his stats still would have been better.

 

Which reminds me: MVP voting is such a sham. Comparing Josh Allen stats (wintry Buffalo) vs Tom Brady stats (sunny TB with four road games played in domes) is utterly stupid. It would be like having a PGA Tour event where half the field plays in perfect weather while the other half tees off in 30 MPH wind and pouring rain. Gee, I wonder who will come out on top? 

 

Numbers are nice to talk about and I like data more than most.  But any metric of QB performance that doesn't attempt to quantify the effect of weather, most specifically wind, is a flawed metric.  And, as far as I know, none of them do, thus they are all biased towards QBs in domes or otherwise great weather.  I think the Bills offense will try to incorporate more YAC opportunities and his numbers could go up as a result.

[Billsfan1972]

I want & expect Allen to lead in every offensive category next year, McD be damned.

 

You don't think coaches tried to stop Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodgers......  

 

If one dimensional (or there are flaws) like Jackson, Newton or others that's another story.

[Jpsredemption]

So dramatic. It’s easier said than done than to just pick one defense and think it’s going to slow a guy like this down who can physically dominate you with his arm or legs. 

[loyal2dagame]

If the new OC can figure out how to get our receivers YAC yardage, Allen will pass for 6000 yrds and we will obliterate the NFL.

[LongTermBuffalonian]

My 2 cents on him having a possible down year go something like this:

 

"It's possible.  He'll have a new OC (ok - new-ish OC), new QB Coach, new OL coach, possibly a new offensive system, AND a target on his back because he is a badass and EVERYONE knows it."

 

But then again - his O-line sucked for half the season, the running game was non-existent about that long, and he has the self-motivation to improve EVERY year.

So I doubt there will be a giant fall off. Josh is too much of a  competitor in his heart to stop now.

Edited February 1, 2022 by LongTermBuffalonian

[Pokebball]

14 hours ago, beebe said:

I'll start with this: I think the Bills are the favorite to earn the 1-seed in the AFC next year. But I think they'll do it with Josh Allen enduring a season that comes up short of the monster expectations that have been placed upon him.

 

I've been reading Chiefs-Bengals postgame coverage, and it's predictably terrible, with the main thesis being that "Mahomes choked" in the 2nd half. It is true: Mahomes put together arguably his worst half as a pro—on the heels of one of his best. But the Bengals deserve credit for putting together a nice defensive plan, one that took advantage of two Chiefs tendencies: Andy's unwillingness to stick to the run; and Mahomes' desire to be aggressive and make plays. The Bengals dropped eight into coverage on roughly half of Mahomes' second half pass attempts, all but begging the Chiefs to run, and also a QB spy, all but eliminating Mahomes' ability to scramble free as he did so often vs Buffalo a week earlier. It worked to perfection. Mahomes kept force feeding passes into tight windows (no one was open) and the Chiefs kept throwing on 2nd-and-5s. The Bengals also got pressure on Mahomes with three-man rushes, sacking him twice in the 2nd half and chasing him around the yard a handful of other times. 

 

Anyway, this isn't the first time Mahomes has been 'solved.' And it won't be the last. Mahomes was downright terrible earlier this year. In a five-week stretch starting with the Bills game, Mahomes had six TDs vs six INTs, easily the worst stretch of play in a four-year career that has ended in either the AFC title game or the Super Bowl every time. Having watched every snap of Mahomes' career, there's no doubt he's better now at age 26 than he was at age 23. He will keep getting better. But he'll keep getting the "Mahomes Treatment," with defensive coordinators literally spending their offseasons inventing ways to stop him. Mahomes saw growth this year in mastering the two-high safety looks that confounded him in the Super Bowl and early in 2021. He became a more patient QB—his best display of patience probably came vs the Bills in the Divisional Round. But in the end, the Bengals got him, throwing new wrinkles at him that other defenses largely avoided; and play calling did Mahomes no favors either (especially in 2nd half.) 

 

All this to say: Josh Allen is about to start getting the Mahomes Treatment. Every team on Buffalo's schedule is going to spend extra time studying him and finding ways to beat him. And someone - perhaps Belichick, but maybe someone else - will find something that works. And every team will copy it. Doesn't mean they'll shut him down. Doesn't mean the Bills will start losing to teams like the Jets and Dolphins. But there will be turbulence, and I suspect you will see him go through a slump and his numbers will decline in 2022. 

 

The counter argument is that Allen's numbers should have been even better in 2021 than they were. I don't think any team played in worse weather conditions than the Bills did this year. The uncommonly easy schedule partially offsets that perhaps, but his stats still would have been better.

 

Which reminds me: MVP voting is such a sham. Comparing Josh Allen stats (wintry Buffalo) vs Tom Brady stats (sunny TB with four road games played in domes) is utterly stupid. It would be like having a PGA Tour event where half the field plays in perfect weather while the other half tees off in 30 MPH wind and pouring rain. Gee, I wonder who will come out on top? 

Oh Good Lord

[FilthyBeast]

Allen pretty much had the textbook definition of a 'bumpy' season in 2021 in that he was wildly inconsistent right up until the end of the season when he struggled mightily at times against the Falcons and Jets in the final two regular season games.

 

This is why his historic playoff run this year was pretty much out of nowhere and not expected based on his regular season body of work.

 

But it's probably too early to say whether or not all these new expected roster/coaching changes are going to make things worse for him, or better for that  matter.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

25 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

Oh Good Lord

 

And this, succinctly in 3 words, summarizes this thread.  /🎤

[stevestojan]

I will choose to be surprised if he has a bumpy year. 

[KingBoots8]

Scorched Earth Season starts in September. Doesn’t end until Josh lifts the Lombardi.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

Allen has gotten the mahomes treatment and beat it plenty…that’s why he is the better qb.  He doesn’t lock onto one or two guys no matter what he will go through his progressions and get everyone involved.  I think next year will be an mvp season for josh…the weather has to be better than it was this year and I don’t think our offensive line will be garbage for 75% of the season 

2 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

Allen pretty much had the textbook definition of a 'bumpy' season in 2021 in that he was wildly inconsistent right up until the end of the season when he struggled mightily at times against the Falcons and Jets in the final two regular season games.

 

This is why his historic playoff run this year was pretty much out of nowhere and not expected based on his regular season body of work.

 

But it's probably too early to say whether or not all these new expected roster/coaching changes are going to make things worse for him, or better for that  matter.

He had one bad game against the jaguars imo…falcons game 2 out of those 3 picks were the right reads and seemed to be accurate throws but Beasley got held and one got tipped for an int.  Jets game we absolutely obliterated them when we were driving with the wind.  Jaguars game our offensive line was horrible but he’s still at fault for not protecting the football…looked like he was trying to hit big chunk plays because he knew we’d never be able to sustain a long drive 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

2 hours ago, Jpsredemption said:

So dramatic. It’s easier said than done than to just pick one defense and think it’s going to slow a guy like this down who can physically dominate you with his arm or legs. 

It’s really a knock on mahomes specifically…I don’t think you can necessarily apply what op said to other qbs.  His run around in circles until hill or Kelce are wide open routine just doesn’t work against that 8 man coverage with a qb spy. 

[RyanC883]

17 hours ago, Einstein said:

No.

 

Im not manifesting that into existence.

 

Josh Allen lifts the Lombardi next season.

 

if we get the Defense fixed, (front 7 really) I see this happening.  Also, let the RBs run the ball more.  Get another guy at least on the caliber of Motor.  Upgrade OL.  A few fixes and we are there.  

3 hours ago, loyal2dagame said:

If the new OC can figure out how to get our receivers YAC yardage, Allen will pass for 6000 yrds and we will obliterate the NFL.

 

more Gabe Davis?  

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

4 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

if we get the Defense fixed, (front 7 really) I see this happening.  Also, let the RBs run the ball more.  Get another guy at least on the caliber of Motor.  Upgrade OL.  A few fixes and we are there.  

 

more Gabe Davis?  

I don’t even think the yac is necessary…if our offensive line is just decent we are unstoppable.  But unfortunately they were dreadful for most of the regular season 

[John from Riverside]

Dorsey to OC

 

 

End.....thread

[damj]

18 hours ago, beebe said:

All this to say: Josh Allen is about to start getting the Mahomes Treatment. Every team on Buffalo's schedule is going to spend extra time studying him and finding ways to beat him. And someone - perhaps Belichick, but maybe someone else - will find something that works. And every team will copy it. Doesn't mean they'll shut him down. Doesn't mean the Bills will start losing to teams like the Jets and Dolphins. But there will be turbulence, and I suspect you will see him go through a slump and his numbers will decline in 2022. 

In Kelly's prime, they ran a relatively small number of plays. Defenses still couldn't stop it. He once had a concussion and ran the same play several times in a row before they realized he was concussed. The play worked everytime. Great talent always finds a way