Don't be surprised if Josh Allen has a bumpy 2022

[Sestak4ever]

He will not regress or hit an entire bumpy season. Josh will continue to establish himself as the best qb in the game and many OC's will try to get their qb to emulate Josh. Unfortunately for them he is one of a kind with multiple skill sets and a mind set that cannot be taught. I believe he will be driven and extremely focused.

[beebe]

2 minutes ago, Bobby Hooks said:

So you’re here to explain to us what to expect? How we may slip on a few banana peels? You’re on a Buffalo Bills message board trying to help US understand things are tough in the NFL and things may not always go our way? Great, thanks!  I love when fans of other teams feel like they have something they can teach us. We have been through literally anything a fanbase can be put through without feeling the ultimate payoff. So how about you save your condescending advice for your own fanbase. 
 

We’ll get as excited as we want for next year and there’s nothing you can do about it. 
 

You know what I think? I think that you got beat by the Bengals and instead of allowing yourself to feel that pain like a big boy, you’re here hiding in last weeks joy. “This loss didn’t bother me for some reason.” Tells me all I need to know about you, and it’s actually kind of sad. Move on kiddo, we don’t need you to tell us how to fan. 
 

 

 

You might be on to something @Bobby Hooks, I will bring this up to my therapist at our next session. A sincere thank you!

[GoBills808]

40 minutes ago, beebe said:

 

Yes: Don't get your hopes up in 2021. You will lose to the Chiefs in the playoffs again. 😉

Keep those donations rolling in

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

I always like to read the breathless prognostics from the "Sky is Falling Crowd".  With relentless certainty they lecture us that JA and the rest of the team will regress into some bottomless statistical pit.  This hasn't happened yet and in the absence of serious injuries, will not likely happen in the near term. I think we have all seen enough of JA to know what kind of player that he is.  Even Belicheat acknowledged that he is a special player after their last game.

 

When you look around the league, the teams that regress usually have significant injury problems across their rosters, including star players.  Other regressing teams hit the wall because cap problems forced them to release or trade too many good players.  And still others falter because they held onto too many older players and they all dropped off the performance cliff at the same time.  I trust Beane and McD to manage the cap and to maintain the roster by continuing additions of good talent through the draft.  

 

May the Bills have a clunker of a season in 2022?....maybe but it is more likely to be caused by injury problems as opposed to some loss of skills or performance by their key players.  So for the fans that so self assuredly predict the regression of JA and the demise of the Bills in 2022, I suggest letting the off season play out so that we can truly assess the state of the Bills going into the regular season.  To do anything else is merely mindless speculation.

[ghostwriter]

1 hour ago, beebe said:

I'll start with this: I think the Bills are the favorite to earn the 1-seed in the AFC next year. But I think they'll do it with Josh Allen enduring a season that comes up short of the monster expectations that have been placed upon him.

 

I've been reading Chiefs-Bengals postgame coverage, and it's predictably terrible, with the main thesis being that "Mahomes choked" in the 2nd half. It is true: Mahomes put together arguably his worst half as a pro—on the heels of one of his best. But the Bengals deserve credit for putting together a nice defensive plan, one that took advantage of two Chiefs tendencies: Andy's unwillingness to stick to the run; and Mahomes' desire to be aggressive and make plays. The Bengals dropped eight into coverage on roughly half of Mahomes' second half pass attempts, all but begging the Chiefs to run, and also a QB spy, all but eliminating Mahomes' ability to scramble free as he did so often vs Buffalo a week earlier. It worked to perfection. Mahomes kept force feeding passes into tight windows (no one was open) and the Chiefs kept throwing on 2nd-and-5s. The Bengals also got pressure on Mahomes with three-man rushes, sacking him twice in the 2nd half and chasing him around the yard a handful of other times. 

 

Anyway, this isn't the first time Mahomes has been 'solved.' And it won't be the last. Mahomes was downright terrible earlier this year. In a five-week stretch starting with the Bills game, Mahomes had six TDs vs six INTs, easily the worst stretch of play in a four-year career that has ended in either the AFC title game or the Super Bowl every time. Having watched every snap of Mahomes' career, there's no doubt he's better now at age 26 than he was at age 23. He will keep getting better. But he'll keep getting the "Mahomes Treatment," with defensive coordinators literally spending their offseasons inventing ways to stop him. Mahomes saw growth this year in mastering the two-high safety looks that confounded him in the Super Bowl and early in 2021. He became a more patient QB—his best display of patience probably came vs the Bills in the Divisional Round. But in the end, the Bengals got him, throwing new wrinkles at him that other defenses largely avoided; and play calling did Mahomes no favors either (especially in 2nd half.) 

 

All this to say: Josh Allen is about to start getting the Mahomes Treatment. Every team on Buffalo's schedule is going to spend extra time studying him and finding ways to beat him. And someone - perhaps Belichick, but maybe someone else - will find something that works. And every team will copy it. Doesn't mean they'll shut him down. Doesn't mean the Bills will start losing to teams like the Jets and Dolphins. But there will be turbulence, and I suspect you will see him go through a slump and his numbers will decline in 2022. 

 

The counter argument is that Allen's numbers should have been even better in 2021 than they were. I don't think any team played in worse weather conditions than the Bills did this year. The uncommonly easy schedule partially offsets that perhaps, but his stats still would have been better.

 

Which reminds me: MVP voting is such a sham. Comparing Josh Allen stats (wintry Buffalo) vs Tom Brady stats (sunny TB with four road games played in domes) is utterly stupid. It would be like having a PGA Tour event where half the field plays in perfect weather while the other half tees off in 30 MPH wind and pouring rain. Gee, I wonder who will come out on top? 

This isn’t a positive post, but it’s a well thought out post and insightful post and I respect you for that. Fans here have a tendency of flaming and belittling anything that isn’t lovey dovey Bills propaganda but I think you’re missing a few things:

 

We don’t know who our new OC will be. This could go either way. If we hire someone who is worth their salt, our whole offense changes in a positive way and defenses have no tape on Allen in our new offense to prepare for, but if we hire pond scum, Allen may terribly regress and may have a down year. This goes beyond whomever we hire as our OC as well, I hate to point that out, but it applies to what ever vacancies we suffer as well.

 

Also, let me see what we do in the draft and free agency. I don’t feel the need to bloviate here, I think those two things are self explanatory and take care of themselves.

 

Anyways, once again, just because folks don’t like your spin on this, it doesn’t mean you’re wrong. It’s happened to me before as well. Mainly when I was clamoring for that crazy inaccurate QB kid from Wyoming. 

[transplantbillsfan]

No. 2021 was the "bumpy" year. Were you asleep all year?

 

I actually expect Allen to be an absolute Monster next year. My big question is how the rest of the team, particularly the defense, will perform...?

[Protocal69]

Listen Josh even said it himself when he said QB's either figure it out or get figured out. With him being self aware of this fact I am willing to bet he will always figure it out

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, beebe said:

I'll start with this: I think the Bills are the favorite to earn the 1-seed in the AFC next year. But I think they'll do it with Josh Allen enduring a season that comes up short of the monster expectations that have been placed upon him.

 

I've been reading Chiefs-Bengals postgame coverage, and it's predictably terrible, with the main thesis being that "Mahomes choked" in the 2nd half. It is true: Mahomes put together arguably his worst half as a pro—on the heels of one of his best. But the Bengals deserve credit for putting together a nice defensive plan, one that took advantage of two Chiefs tendencies: Andy's unwillingness to stick to the run; and Mahomes' desire to be aggressive and make plays. The Bengals dropped eight into coverage on roughly half of Mahomes' second half pass attempts, all but begging the Chiefs to run, and also a QB spy, all but eliminating Mahomes' ability to scramble free as he did so often vs Buffalo a week earlier. It worked to perfection. Mahomes kept force feeding passes into tight windows (no one was open) and the Chiefs kept throwing on 2nd-and-5s. The Bengals also got pressure on Mahomes with three-man rushes, sacking him twice in the 2nd half and chasing him around the yard a handful of other times. 

 

Anyway, this isn't the first time Mahomes has been 'solved.' And it won't be the last. Mahomes was downright terrible earlier this year. In a five-week stretch starting with the Bills game, Mahomes had six TDs vs six INTs, easily the worst stretch of play in a four-year career that has ended in either the AFC title game or the Super Bowl every time. Having watched every snap of Mahomes' career, there's no doubt he's better now at age 26 than he was at age 23. He will keep getting better. But he'll keep getting the "Mahomes Treatment," with defensive coordinators literally spending their offseasons inventing ways to stop him. Mahomes saw growth this year in mastering the two-high safety looks that confounded him in the Super Bowl and early in 2021. He became a more patient QB—his best display of patience probably came vs the Bills in the Divisional Round. But in the end, the Bengals got him, throwing new wrinkles at him that other defenses largely avoided; and play calling did Mahomes no favors either (especially in 2nd half.) 

 

All this to say: Josh Allen is about to start getting the Mahomes Treatment. Every team on Buffalo's schedule is going to spend extra time studying him and finding ways to beat him. And someone - perhaps Belichick, but maybe someone else - will find something that works. And every team will copy it. Doesn't mean they'll shut him down. Doesn't mean the Bills will start losing to teams like the Jets and Dolphins. But there will be turbulence, and I suspect you will see him go through a slump and his numbers will decline in 2022. 

 

The counter argument is that Allen's numbers should have been even better in 2021 than they were. I don't think any team played in worse weather conditions than the Bills did this year. The uncommonly easy schedule partially offsets that perhaps, but his stats still would have been better.

 

Which reminds me: MVP voting is such a sham. Comparing Josh Allen stats (wintry Buffalo) vs Tom Brady stats (sunny TB with four road games played in domes) is utterly stupid. It would be like having a PGA Tour event where half the field plays in perfect weather while the other half tees off in 30 MPH wind and pouring rain. Gee, I wonder who will come out on top? 

………….

[The Wiz]

10 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

This isn’t a positive post, but it’s a well thought out post and insightful post and I respect you for that. Fans here have a tendency of flaming and belittling anything that isn’t lovey dovey Bills propaganda but I think you’re missing a few things:

 

We don’t know who our new OC will be. This could go either way. If we hire someone who is worth their salt, our whole offense changes in a positive way and defenses have no tape on Allen in our new offense to prepare for, but if we hire pond scum, Allen may terribly regress and may have a down year. This goes beyond whomever we hire as our OC as well, I hate to point that out, but it applies to what ever vacancies we suffer as well.

 

Also, let me see what we do in the draft and free agency. I don’t feel the need to bloviate here, I think those two things are self explanatory and take care of themselves.

 

Anyways, once again, just because folks don’t like your spin on this, it doesn’t mean you’re wrong. It’s happened to me before as well. Mainly when I was clamoring for that crazy inaccurate QB kid from Wyoming. 

Nothing wrong about what you or @beebe said. It's all about how we fill our coaching voids that are coming and how we build the team.  I would prefer a staff that keeps it as consistent as possible to the scheme that was already in place for the last 4 years but you never know what can happen with the coaching hiring's.

 

That is my biggest concern.  Not how Allen does next year because even if he has an off year with a new OC or whoever he will adapt.  He's already shown that he can.

[Saxum]

1 hour ago, Simon said:

Whne they got flustered and started showing him singe high coverage he was on it within a play or two and made them pay that way as well.

 

I like "Whne" - combination of whine and when.

[Bubba Gump]

The draft can't get here soon enough

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

 

 You would think that they would've been studying Josh for the playoffs, right? The greatest defensive mind has studied him a ton and can't figure out how to make him punt even once in a game. In the last 2 games against the Pats*** Billy boy admitted they had nothing to stop him. Both teams he played in the playoffs had played he several times in the last few years, they knew him well. The offense punted only 11 times in the last 5 games.

 

 Josh had 17 rushes 134 Yards  7.88 YPC.....48/62  637 yards. 10.3 YPA  77.3 Comp%  9 TDs  0 INTs  149 QB Rating and a 94.4 QBR in the playoffs. 12 of the 16 drives ended in a TD. The first QB ever to throw at least 4 TDs and 0 INTs in back to back playoff games and the highest QB Rating ever in a playoff season. He nearly had the most TDs in a playoff season and he only played 2 games, all the rest on the list at least made the Super Bowl. 

 

 He ended the season unstoppable and he'll only be better next season. He's the best and scariest player to defend against in the league by a good margin, while having the most weight on his shoulders and he's all ours. IMO Josh checked all the boxes at the end of the season and in the playoffs. A straight up dawg.

 

 

[without a drought]

2 minutes ago, Bubba Gump said:

The draft can't get here soon enough

Yep, looks like they'll be taking a QB in the 1st now. 

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, beebe said:

Mahomes is a better QB in 2022 than he was in 2018.

 

Nope.

[billybrew1]

If we can keep this offense together AND healthy (which won't happen) ain't nobody stopping Josh.

 

Ideally, we upgrade the RB and OL positions and keep Josh from running too much until the playoffs.

But, it is probably too hard to get better players and we are going to run into injuries which is going to result in the offense getting mired down.

Maybe we will improve the defense?

idk? We'll have to wait and see...

 

C'mon Super Bowl!

 

Go Bills!

[beebe]

10 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 He ended the season unstoppable and he'll only be better next season. He's the best and scariest player to defend against in the league by a good margin, while having the most weight on his shoulders and he's all ours. IMO Josh checked all the boxes at the end of the season and in the playoffs. A straight up dawg.

 

 

 

Allen was a 4th-and-13 incompletion away from finishing 22-of-30 for 227 yards and two TDs vs Chiefs, with 75 yards coming on a blown coverage on a deep pass. Five of eight drives would have ended with a punt or turnover on downs. Obviously, he completed the pass, deserves all the credit in the world for how the Bills closed in that game, and was largely responsible for making the game so memorable. But there was probably a 1-in-4 chance of converting there—even with Dan Sorensen on the field—and the offseason narrative would be much different. 

[Captain Hindsight]

Don’t be surprised if the best QB in the league has defenses try to stop him 

[Dablitzkrieg]

2 hours ago, beebe said:

I'll start with this: I think the Bills are the favorite to earn the 1-seed in the AFC next year. But I think they'll do it with Josh Allen enduring a season that comes up short of the monster expectations that have been placed upon him.

 

I've been reading Chiefs-Bengals postgame coverage, and it's predictably terrible, with the main thesis being that "Mahomes choked" in the 2nd half. It is true: Mahomes put together arguably his worst half as a pro—on the heels of one of his best. But the Bengals deserve credit for putting together a nice defensive plan, one that took advantage of two Chiefs tendencies: Andy's unwillingness to stick to the run; and Mahomes' desire to be aggressive and make plays. The Bengals dropped eight into coverage on roughly half of Mahomes' second half pass attempts, all but begging the Chiefs to run, and also a QB spy, all but eliminating Mahomes' ability to scramble free as he did so often vs Buffalo a week earlier. It worked to perfection. Mahomes kept force feeding passes into tight windows (no one was open) and the Chiefs kept throwing on 2nd-and-5s. The Bengals also got pressure on Mahomes with three-man rushes, sacking him twice in the 2nd half and chasing him around the yard a handful of other times. 

 

Anyway, this isn't the first time Mahomes has been 'solved.' And it won't be the last. Mahomes was downright terrible earlier this year. In a five-week stretch starting with the Bills game, Mahomes had six TDs vs six INTs, easily the worst stretch of play in a four-year career that has ended in either the AFC title game or the Super Bowl every time. Having watched every snap of Mahomes' career, there's no doubt he's better now at age 26 than he was at age 23. He will keep getting better. But he'll keep getting the "Mahomes Treatment," with defensive coordinators literally spending their offseasons inventing ways to stop him. Mahomes saw growth this year in mastering the two-high safety looks that confounded him in the Super Bowl and early in 2021. He became a more patient QB—his best display of patience probably came vs the Bills in the Divisional Round. But in the end, the Bengals got him, throwing new wrinkles at him that other defenses largely avoided; and play calling did Mahomes no favors either (especially in 2nd half.) 

 

All this to say: Josh Allen is about to start getting the Mahomes Treatment. Every team on Buffalo's schedule is going to spend extra time studying him and finding ways to beat him. And someone - perhaps Belichick, but maybe someone else - will find something that works. And every team will copy it. Doesn't mean they'll shut him down. Doesn't mean the Bills will start losing to teams like the Jets and Dolphins. But there will be turbulence, and I suspect you will see him go through a slump and his numbers will decline in 2022. 

 

The counter argument is that Allen's numbers should have been even better in 2021 than they were. I don't think any team played in worse weather conditions than the Bills did this year. The uncommonly easy schedule partially offsets that perhaps, but his stats still would have been better.

 

Which reminds me: MVP voting is such a sham. Comparing Josh Allen stats (wintry Buffalo) vs Tom Brady stats (sunny TB with four road games played in domes) is utterly stupid. It would be like having a PGA Tour event where half the field plays in perfect weather while the other half tees off in 30 MPH wind and pouring rain. Gee, I wonder who will come out on top? 

Yeah, idiots said that this year.  He plays better in more meaningful games.  On the road.  He'll be great once again

[HappyDays]

23 minutes ago, beebe said:

Allen was a 4th-and-13 incompletion away from finishing 22-of-30 for 227 yards and two TDs vs Chiefs, with 75 yards coming on a blown coverage on a deep pass.

 

Yeah and the world was one wayward sperm away from never having to watch Jackson Mahomes tiktok dances, but here we are.

 

Edited February 1, 2022 by HappyDays

[larrym]

2 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Again apparently. 

Can we factor in that we didn't have a true offensive line until about week 14 because of injury and covid?

Consider that mahomes plays behind an oline that is demonstably better than the one josh plays behind.  He has all the time in the world and a nice clean pocket.  Also Josh already got that treatment this year and he learned to evolve and take what is given.  Take the easy completion.  Know when to take your shots.  I just wish he would start sliding more.  I cringe everytime he takes a hit.