Don't be surprised if Josh Allen has a bumpy 2022

[beebe]

Just now, BringBackFlutie said:

 

Right.

 

 

....but he didn't have an upward trajectory this year.  His passing stats were slightly lower, as he learned to cope with the same exact issues Mahomes did.  You think DCs didn't spend all offseason trying to stop the MVP runner-up from last year?  

 

I'm sure they did. And many teams in fairness had some success. The Jags kept the Bills out of the end zone. The Falcons limited Allen to 120 passing yards and three INTs. The Colts' Matt Eberflus earned himself extra attention after he forced Allen into a horrible game in a Colts rout. Even the Jets made him look pedestrian for a half. Based on what I read, it seems Bills fans expect a continuation of the playoff performances. And that simply isn't going to happen. This league is too damn hard.

[B-Large]

I wouldn’t mind Josh regressing in the “running into defenders head on” category…. I’d prefer a consistent running game and my QB not taking the abuse..

 

sometimes its needed, but overall, yeah less hits.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, beebe said:

But the Bengals deserve credit for putting together a nice defensive plan, one that took advantage of two Chiefs tendencies: Andy's unwillingness to stick to the run; and Mahomes' desire to be aggressive and make plays. The Bengals dropped eight into coverage on roughly half of Mahomes' second half pass attempts, all but begging the Chiefs to run, and also a QB spy, all but eliminating Mahomes' ability to scramble free as he did so often vs Buffalo a week earlier. It worked to perfection. Mahomes kept force feeding passes into tight windows (no one was open) and the Chiefs kept throwing on 2nd-and-5s. The Bengals also got pressure on Mahomes with three-man rushes, sacking him twice in the 2nd half and chasing him around the yard a handful of other times. 

 

(...)

 

Mahomes saw growth this year in mastering the two-high safety looks that confounded him in the Super Bowl and early in 2021. He became a more patient QB—his best display of patience probably came vs the Bills in the Divisional Round. But in the end, the Bengals got him, throwing new wrinkles at him that other defenses largely avoided; and play calling did Mahomes no favors either (especially in 2nd half.) 

 

Hi.  You realize that the bolded is exactly how Pittsburgh and Jacksonville beat the Bills?  Ditto the Colts?

 

The Bills were also seeing a lot of two-high safety looks.

 

We won some games (2nd NE, improved 2nd half vs. Miami, 2nd half Tampa, came very close in the Divisional round) because Allen showed progress in "taking what the defense gives him" and taking those short quick passes to move the chains, requiring us to sustain 10,11, 13, 14 play drives.

 

In the 2nd NE game, 2 Bills TDs came on 13 play drives.  2 Bills FG came on 10 and 14 play drives.  In the 2nd half of the 2nd Miami game, we had 13 and 14 play scoring drives.

 

4 minutes ago, beebe said:

All this to say: Josh Allen is about to start getting the Mahomes Treatment. Every team on Buffalo's schedule is going to spend extra time studying him and finding ways to beat him.

 

This is Yesterday's Newspaper.   The Bills went to the AFCCG with a high-voltage offense last season, and every team on Buffalo's schedule already spent extra time studying the Bills and finding ways to beat them.

 

4 minutes ago, beebe said:

And someone - perhaps Belichick, but maybe someone else - will find something that works. And every team will copy it. Doesn't mean they'll shut him down. Doesn't mean the Bills will start losing to teams like the Jets and Dolphins. But there will be turbulence, and I suspect you will see him go through a slump and his numbers will decline in 2022. 

 

That already happened in 2021.   If we don't have a good OC and we don't make improvements on OL and at skill positions -sure our offensive capabilities will continue to have holes, because one way we solved the "reluctance to run" issue, was by using Josh Allen as our best running back and that's a high injury risk.

 

But what you say - already been there.  And some of it is on Josh.  He has plenty he can improve on with touch and trajectory of passes, especially screen passes and short passes, and then there's still room to improve in the deep game.

 

The Chiefs felt that they could beat Cincy with an aggressive passing game in the 2nd half, as they kind of did in the first.  But the Bengals adjusted, and the Chiefs didn't adjust to the adjustment quickly enough. 

 

 

 

[beebe]

3 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Pretty hard to believe Belichick is only now going to buckle down to figure out Josh.

 

Belichick didn't have the personnel to slow the Bills down, especially not with the bodies they had in the playoff game. He got a pass due to a 40 mph wind game otherwise the Bills would have ran circles around that defense. But rest assured, his offseason personnel decisions will be made entirely to stop the Bills; just as the Bills' front office has had the Chiefs in mind when putting together their roster.

[Joe Ferguson]

Everyone is overlooking the fact that Josh Allen played against a horrible, horrible secondary of the Chiefs. And they were without two of their starters on defense. I mean come on! I probably could throw that much yardage and touchdowns if I was playing. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Pretty hard to believe Belichick is only now going to buckle down to figure out Josh.

 

Considering that many Bills fans (I ain't presuming to speak for most) made that assumption for this season, and that numerically, Josh Allen did "regress" in the sense of having lower stats this season - that would be burking the facts.

 

 

1 minute ago, Joe Ferguson said:

Everyone is overlooking the fact that Josh Allen played against a horrible, horrible secondary of the Chiefs. And they were without two of their starters on defense. I mean come on! I probably could throw that much yardage and touchdowns if I was playing. 

 

What is this "horrible" secondary of the Chiefs and which 2 starters were they missing?

[Mikie2times]

1 minute ago, beebe said:

 

I think most Bills fans assume the stats will remain on an upward trajectory and that the next step is "Josh Allen is unstoppable." Chiefs fans thought the same with Mahomes. I'm seeing similar coverage now with Burrow and Herbert. Please note: Regress doesn't mean Josh Allen sucks! Mahomes is a better QB in 2022 than he was in 2018. But he will never again put up the numbers he did his first year in the league. I think it took him some time to confront that reality. 

I assume our fans understand he will still have some bad games. All players do. As far as the special treatment goes, we got plenty of it all year. Don't let Josh scramble to his right. Don't blitz him. Don't give him anything deep. Coaches used all these techniques with success until eventually Josh got a handle on it and it ended up making him even more formidable.   

 

Outside of Josh, what I expect most from this team next year is to be consistent and attack home field advantage in a way we haven't seen from them. The team along with Josh took everybody's best shot this year. They know what that feels like. I expect a very pissed off, very focused, and very determined team next year.   

[BringBackFlutie]

3 minutes ago, beebe said:

 

I'm sure they did. And many teams in fairness had some success. The Jags kept the Bills out of the end zone. The Falcons limited Allen to 120 passing yards and three INTs. The Colts' Matt Eberflus earned himself extra attention after he forced Allen into a horrible game in a Colts rout. Even the Jets made him look pedestrian for a half. Based on what I read, it seems Bills fans expect a continuation of the playoff performances. And that simply isn't going to happen. This league is too damn hard.

 

So what you're saying is, "don't be surprised if Josh struggles to adjust to the latest way to stop him and mahomes, just like they both did this year?" Your OP makes it seem as though you're uncovering a new phenomenon.

[BuffaloBillyG]

After the way this year ended...Josh Allen is going scortched Earth. 5500 yards passing. 850 yards rushing. 65 total TDs. They may even just rename the Super Bowl to "The 1st annual Josh Allen Just Kicked Your Ass" Bowl. Sponsored by Chik-Fil-A

 

He's on Madden mode next season.

[frostbitmic]

With a new OC running new plays, I think it may be a number of games into the season to figure out what's what with the Bills offense, even if Dorsey gets the OC gig.

[Warcodered]

4 minutes ago, beebe said:

 

Belichick didn't have the personnel to slow the Bills down, especially not with the bodies they had in the playoff game. He got a pass due to a 40 mph wind game otherwise the Bills would have ran circles around that defense. But rest assured, his offseason personnel decisions will be made entirely to stop the Bills; just as the Bills' front office has had the Chiefs in mind when putting together their roster.

This is literally the exact same story from last year.

[Big Blitz]

4 minutes ago, Joe Ferguson said:

Everyone is overlooking the fact that Josh Allen played against a horrible, horrible secondary of the Chiefs. And they were without two of their starters on defense. I mean come on! I probably could throw that much yardage and touchdowns if I was playing. 

 

 

Maybe you have a point there.......

 

Is the Patriots secondary as bad?

 

I'll hang up and listen.  

 

 

[beebe]

3 minutes ago, Joe Ferguson said:

Everyone is overlooking the fact that Josh Allen played against a horrible, horrible secondary of the Chiefs. And they were without two of their starters on defense. I mean come on! I probably could throw that much yardage and touchdowns if I was playing. 

 

Despite the banged up secondary, KC actually did a nice job until losing Gabe Davis deep on the 75-yard bomb. The Bills went 35 plays for 185 yards (5.2 yds per play) and punted three of their first five drives. From that point on, as we know, they did the opposite of good. 😃

[extrahammer]

I think Josh has proven even in games where he's not throwing well, he can still take control and be impactful. Look at the Falcons game, he has a horrible day throwing, but scores twice with his leg, and could have gotten 100 yards if he wanted to. I think his long-term success will come down to how well he's able to play both sides and faking teams on it. The key IMO will be his offensive coaching staff and their ability to detect and make adjustments as the game progresses, and his weapons of course. 

[beebe]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Considering that many Bills fans (I ain't presuming to speak for most) made that assumption for this season, and that numerically, Josh Allen did "regress" in the sense of having lower stats this season - that would be burking the facts.

 

 

 

What is this "horrible" secondary of the Chiefs and which 2 starters were they missing?

 

He's referring to Mathieu (injury on opening series) and Fenton (key DB for Chiefs). Both were hugely important. Mathieu's absence led to the terrible Dan Sorensen being on the field; and Fenton's injury enabled Mike Hughes to play significant snaps. He got absolutely torched. 

 

Mathieu and Fenton both returned vs Bengals. Sorensen played just 12 snaps, Hughes played just one. 

4 minutes ago, BringBackFlutie said:

 

So what you're saying is, "don't be surprised if Josh struggles to adjust to the latest way to stop him and mahomes, just like they both did this year?" Your OP makes it seem as though you're uncovering a new phenomenon.

 

Quite honestly, reading this forum, I would expect nothing less than 5000 yards, 40 TDs and single-digit INTs from Allen in 2022. 🙂

[Alphadawg7]

This is going to be a lonnnnnnnnnnnng offseason.  

[loveorhatembillsfan4life]

I’m just curious.. when the Elite Qbs get figured out and regress what happens with the other 30 Qbs? Do they just stay status quo? Do they get figured out? Or is it just the Elite who fall, and even if they regress where does that put them against their peers.. less dangerous.. more

 

I have no idea where I’m going with this lol 

[The Wiz]

12 minutes ago, Joe Ferguson said:

Everyone is overlooking the fact that Josh Allen played against a horrible, horrible secondary of the Chiefs. And they were without two of their starters on defense. I mean come on! I probably could throw that much yardage and touchdowns if I was playing. 

One of which Josh knocked out of the game. 

[Bookie Man]

I think we see a strengthened running game next season. I think the that threat will make him more dangerous down the field. 

[YoloinOhio]

23 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Pretty hard to believe Belichick is only now going to buckle down to figure out Josh.