Don't be surprised if Josh Allen has a bumpy 2022

[beebe]

I'll start with this: I think the Bills are the favorite to earn the 1-seed in the AFC next year. But I think they'll do it with Josh Allen enduring a season that comes up short of the monster expectations that have been placed upon him.

 

I've been reading Chiefs-Bengals postgame coverage, and it's predictably terrible, with the main thesis being that "Mahomes choked" in the 2nd half. It is true: Mahomes put together arguably his worst half as a pro—on the heels of one of his best. But the Bengals deserve credit for putting together a nice defensive plan, one that took advantage of two Chiefs tendencies: Andy's unwillingness to stick to the run; and Mahomes' desire to be aggressive and make plays. The Bengals dropped eight into coverage on roughly half of Mahomes' second half pass attempts, all but begging the Chiefs to run, and also a QB spy, all but eliminating Mahomes' ability to scramble free as he did so often vs Buffalo a week earlier. It worked to perfection. Mahomes kept force feeding passes into tight windows (no one was open) and the Chiefs kept throwing on 2nd-and-5s. The Bengals also got pressure on Mahomes with three-man rushes, sacking him twice in the 2nd half and chasing him around the yard a handful of other times. 

 

Anyway, this isn't the first time Mahomes has been 'solved.' And it won't be the last. Mahomes was downright terrible earlier this year. In a five-week stretch starting with the Bills game, Mahomes had six TDs vs six INTs, easily the worst stretch of play in a four-year career that has ended in either the AFC title game or the Super Bowl every time. Having watched every snap of Mahomes' career, there's no doubt he's better now at age 26 than he was at age 23. He will keep getting better. But he'll keep getting the "Mahomes Treatment," with defensive coordinators literally spending their offseasons inventing ways to stop him. Mahomes saw growth this year in mastering the two-high safety looks that confounded him in the Super Bowl and early in 2021. He became a more patient QB—his best display of patience probably came vs the Bills in the Divisional Round. But in the end, the Bengals got him, throwing new wrinkles at him that other defenses largely avoided; and play calling did Mahomes no favors either (especially in 2nd half.) 

 

All this to say: Josh Allen is about to start getting the Mahomes Treatment. Every team on Buffalo's schedule is going to spend extra time studying him and finding ways to beat him. And someone - perhaps Belichick, but maybe someone else - will find something that works. And every team will copy it. Doesn't mean they'll shut him down. Doesn't mean the Bills will start losing to teams like the Jets and Dolphins. But there will be turbulence, and I suspect you will see him go through a slump and his numbers will decline in 2022. 

 

The counter argument is that Allen's numbers should have been even better in 2021 than they were. I don't think any team played in worse weather conditions than the Bills did this year. The uncommonly easy schedule partially offsets that perhaps, but his stats still would have been better.

 

Which reminds me: MVP voting is such a sham. Comparing Josh Allen stats (wintry Buffalo) vs Tom Brady stats (sunny TB with four road games played in domes) is utterly stupid. It would be like having a PGA Tour event where half the field plays in perfect weather while the other half tees off in 30 MPH wind and pouring rain. Gee, I wonder who will come out on top? 

[Einstein]

No.

 

Im not manifesting that into existence.

 

Josh Allen lifts the Lombardi next season.

[TBBills]

Oh no Josh Allen is going to "Regress"?!?!?

[Momma Pecoraro]

Some thoughts need an editor. 

Some thoughts needn’t be shared.

[The Wiz]

Just now, TBBills said:

Oh no Josh Allen is going to "Regress"?!?!?

Again apparently. 

Can we factor in that we didn't have a true offensive line until about week 14 because of injury and covid?

[billsfanmiamioh]

This has already been happening for a couple seasons. Not worried 

[beebe]

1 minute ago, TBBills said:

Oh no Josh Allen is going to "Regress"?!?!?

 

I think most Bills fans assume the stats will remain on an upward trajectory and that the next step is "Josh Allen is unstoppable." Chiefs fans thought the same with Mahomes. I'm seeing similar coverage now with Burrow and Herbert. Please note: Regress doesn't mean Josh Allen sucks! Mahomes is a better QB in 2022 than he was in 2018. But he will never again put up the numbers he did his first year in the league. I think it took him some time to confront that reality. 

[Warcodered]

7 minutes ago, beebe said:

All this to say: Josh Allen is about to start getting the Mahomes Treatment. Every team on Buffalo's schedule is going to spend extra time studying him and finding ways to beat him. And someone - perhaps Belichick, but maybe someone else - will find something that works. And every team will copy it. Doesn't mean they'll shut him down. Doesn't mean the Bills will start losing to teams like the Jets and Dolphins. But there will be turbulence, and I suspect you will see him go through a slump and his numbers will decline in 2022. 

Pretty sure that was this year.

[Beach]

they said that last year

[Augie]

3 minutes ago, Momma Pecoraro said:

Some thoughts need an editor. 

Some thoughts needn’t be shared.

 

But, Mahomes had a bad half, so Josh is going to regress next year. I think you are missing the…..

 

 

Oh…….maybe not. 

 

There are ups and downs every year, but Josh keeps getting better. I think more depends on the new OC and staff, plus players, than how Mahomes played. 

[Boatdrinks]

He’s already gotten the “ treatment” the last season and a half. The Bengals didn’t do anything groundbreaking or even anything they didn’t already do in the first half. They just went to it more often, but they were down big as well. Josh is simply a freak athlete and does things that aren’t supposed to work, but they do. Unlike Mahomes, when he runs he sets up his next move and he trucks through defenders. If he has a bumpy 2022 it will more likely be due to the new OC and hopefully it’s not a whole new offense to install. 

Edited February 1, 2022 by Boatdrinks

[Chaos]

I predict that Josh Allen will not lead the Bills to a TD drive on every possession. Clearly a regression. 

[BringBackFlutie]

2 minutes ago, beebe said:

 

I think most Bills fans assume the stats will remain on an upward trajectory and that the next step is "Josh Allen is unstoppable." Chiefs fans thought the same with Mahomes. I'm seeing similar coverage now with Burrow and Herbert. Please note: Regress doesn't mean Josh Allen sucks! Mahomes is a better QB in 2022 than he was in 2018. But he will never again put up the numbers he did his first year in the league. I think it took him some time to confront that reality. 

 

Right.

 

 

....but he didn't have an upward trajectory this year.  His passing stats were slightly lower, as he learned to cope with the same exact issues Mahomes did.  You think DCs didn't spend all offseason trying to stop the MVP runner-up from last year?  

[YoloinOhio]

If they are just now starting to study him, hoo boy.

 

Like Josh says, some QBs figure it out… other QBs get figured out. 

[The Wiz]

2 minutes ago, Chaos said:

I predict that Josh Allen will not lead the Bills to a TD drive on every possession. Clearly a regression. 

Maybe we can get a a 4th rounder for him.

[Playoffs?]

We suck again!

[buffaloboyinATL]

10 minutes ago, TBBills said:

Oh no Josh Allen is going to "Regress"?!?!?

Hmmm. Seems as though we have heard this before... deja vu all over again. 

[Simon]

8 minutes ago, beebe said:

But he'll keep getting the "Mahomes Treatment," with defensive coordinators literally spending their offseasons inventing ways to stop him. Mahomes saw growth this year in mastering the two-high safety looks that confounded him in the Super Bowl and early in 2021. He became a more patient QB—his best display of patience probably came vs the Bills in the Divisional Round. But in the end, the Bengals got him, throwing new wrinkles at him that other defenses largely avoided; and play calling did Mahomes no favors either (especially in 2nd half.) 

 

All this to say: Josh Allen is about to start getting the Mahomes Treatment. Every team on Buffalo's schedule is going to spend extra time studying him and finding ways to beat him. And someone - perhaps Belichick, but maybe someone else - will find something that works.

 

He's already been through that phase.

Teams generally abandoned man coverages last year and this year went to multiple high safety looks to take advantage of his tendency to read deep to shallow. It took some time for him to find the patience you refer to, but find it he did. He started reading shallow to deep, sped up his decision making process and generally started dissecting defenses on a regular basis. Whne they got flustered and started showing him singe high coverage he was on it within a play or two and made them pay that way as well.

That bumpy stretch you're anticipating happened about 2 months ago.

[Big Blitz]

I get what the OP is saying I alluded to this yesterday 

 

The best way to slow them down is rush 3, spy, and have speed on the field.

 

Good luck.  

 

 

 

All that being said.....Mahomes choked at the end of the first half.  We're not having this conversation if they score.  The Bengals get blown out if they did.  Instead they were down only 11 instead of 18.  

Edited February 1, 2022 by Big Blitz

[Warcodered]

2 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

If they are just now starting to study him, hoo boy.

 

Like Josh says, some QBs figure it out… other QBs get figured out. 

Pretty hard to believe Belichick is only now going to buckle down to figure out Josh.