Dawson Knox - he improved greatly, but was it enough? 2022 is his contract year

[billsfan1959]

On 1/30/2022 at 1:12 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

This was spurred by comments I made in the Gronk thread

 

Knox improved greatly this season, but did he improve enough?

 

When you look at his productivity per game, it's an improvement, but a smaller improvement than one might like to see

 

In 2020, he had 40.5 snaps per game. 

In 2021, he had 61.1 snaps per game (87% of offensive snaps)

That's a 51% increase in snaps per game.

 

In 2020, he had 2.2 receptions per game

In 2021, he had 3.3 receptions per game

That's a 50% increase in receptions per game

 

In 2020, he gained 24 yards per game

In 2021, he gained 39 yards per game

That's a 63% increase in yards per game

 

But the  bottom line - while 587 yds is much better productivity than 287 yds last year, his productivity in the passing game improved only slightly relative to the increased number of snaps he saw. 

 

I don't have a good sense as to how often he was used in the passing game (or open) relative to how much he was asked to block.

 

He improved in other ways, of course:

 

His catch % improved markedly, from 54.5% to 69%

So did his yards per target from 6.5 to 8.3

 

His drops stayed constant, 3, which means as a percentage of targets, they improved from 9.1% to 5.6%

Most critically - last year he had 2 fumbles.  This year he did not fumble.

 

I'm not Joe Expert, but to my perception his blocking showed a big improvement this season, as did his route running to the point where they actually were able to line him up as a receiver.  His physicality as a route runner improved markedly, as well.

 

How was he relative to other TE across the league?  I had to pull data from PFR and sort it myself to get this. 

 

Among TE, Knox was:

13th for Y/G with 39

14th for Y/Tgt with 8.3

15th for Y/R with 12

14th for 1D with 41

28th in Catch% (of TE with more than 25 targets) at 69%

Tied for 1st in TD with 9 (4 way tie)

 

So except in TDs, kind of middling

 

Obviously Knox has developed into a competent NFL TE who shows flashes of better.  And some of the above comparison is unfair, as it lumps him in with TE who are primarily WR while Knox is asked to block quite a bit.

 

This is Knox's contract year, and while I think he's worth the $2.7M he'll count against the cap in 2022, does his production merit a big payday?  Being the #12-18 TE would slot him in currently for an AAV around $6.5-8M AAV, or a contract between $16M and $29M

 

IMHO, this is reason to draft a young TE in what is supposed to be a deep TE draft class, because while Knox has improved, it seems to me that he has not yet become that Star TE we were hoping to draft and develop.  He has not become Allen's Kelce or Kittle or Andrews, or even Goeddert or Waller.  He is a good young TE, though.

 

Thoughts?

 

Good post. I will add the TE rankings from Football Outsiders (Knox ranked 8th in overall value):

 

 

For those unfamiliar with the categories:

 

DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the performance on plays where this TE caught the ball, compared to a replacement-level TE in the same game situations and then translated into yardage. YAR is related to DYAR, but isn't adjusted based on opponent

 

DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average TE in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance. VOA is related to DVOA, but isn't adjusted based on opponent

 

The simple version: DYAR means a tight end with more total value. DVOA means a tight end with more value per play.

 

Effective Yards (EYds) translate DVOA into a yards per attempt figure. This provides an easy comparison: in general, players with more Effective Yards than standard yards played better than standard stats would otherwise indicate

 

Catch Rate represents the percentage of passes to this receiver completed.

 

Of the top ten listed in the FO chart above, Knox had the 2nd fewest targets and receptions, but had the 2nd highest TD%.

 

I believe Knox was moving into the top tier of TEs in the league this year. I think he is one of the more physically gifted tight ends who was, arguabl much more raw coming out of college. I think he is going to really evolve into a top 5 TE this year. 

[Rubes]

Interesting and relevant snippet from a Buff News article today reviewing the offense in 2021:

 

Quote

 

This season, the use of the four wide set dropped to 7% overall, third in the NFL. But that’s deceiving. It was only 2.5% the last 11 games, after the Jacksonville loss. The league average for 10 personnel was 1.8%, according to Sharp Football.

 

The explanation was simple. Dawson Knox. He developed into an all-around asset at tight end, and the Bills couldn’t take him off the field. Knox played 87% of the snaps in the 17 games he played. Last year, Knox played 45% of the snaps. He ranked 15th among NFL tight ends in receiving yards and tied for second in touchdowns by tight ends.

 

“Yes,” Daboll said, referring to the simple explanation. “We’ve talked about this before, the tight end position is – I’m not saying it’s a dying breed but it certainly is different than it used to be, particularly at the collegiate level. Dawson was a guy who never put his hand in the ground. He was basically a big slot receiver at Ole Miss. Obviously a walk-on quarterback. To make the transition he’s made in his short time here I think speaks volumes – No. 1, to him and the work he’s put in. And No. 2, to Rob Boras, his position coach. He’s a good player for us. When you have a tight end, there’s more offense you can run. But you have to have confidence and faith in that guy, and we certainly do with Dawson.”

 

 

As Daboll said, good all-around TEs are tough to find, and Knox developed into a good one pretty quickly. His star is still on the rise. He wasn't a top-5 TE in the league last year but some team will pay him with the expectation that he will continue to develop into one. He'll be tough to keep but man, I sure want him to stick around.

 

[muppy]

oboi ....hahaha .

 naww actually I hope u stay a Bill for a very long time . You are not only super cute but you make PLAYS my man. Glad to have you!

 

m 

[ArdmoreRyno]

He loves Buffalo... and Josh and him have a GREAT comradery. 

 

Dude was GREAT last season and he is becoming an elite TE. Tied for 1st in TDs (with Kelce, Andrews and Henry) with HALF the targets as Kelce and Andrews.

[bubba2018]

On 2/3/2022 at 12:03 PM, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

The biggest problem with Knox is that he's not a natural pass catcher which is holding Josh back.  Josh can't really use him as a safety valve.

 

I would put a transition tag on him and let him test the market.

 

If he's offered too much money, let him go.  If the money is reasonable 4-5 million, bring him back.

 

Either way you still have to go back to the draft and find your Dallas Goedert.

This. He makes exceptional contested catches, he just isn’t fluid. Does anyone think he could have a ten catch 100 yd game? 

[ArdmoreRyno]

11 hours ago, recovery96 said:

This. He makes exceptional contested catches, he just isn’t fluid. Does anyone think he could have a ten catch 100 yd game? 

 

He's had a 5 catch 117 yard game, a 6 catch 80 yard game, a 7 catch 60 yard game and a 5 catch 89 yard game... just this past season. 

[bigduke6]

Knox has proven himself,  hes more than fine as our #1.

[bubba2018]

17 hours ago, ArdmoreRyno said:

 

He's had a 5 catch 117 yard game, a 6 catch 80 yard game, a 7 catch 60 yard game and a 5 catch 89 yard game... just this past season. 

Yea, the point is he is not a possession receiver, he isn’t going to have a ten catch game, at least where he is right now at least.

[BarleyNY]

On 2/4/2022 at 10:37 AM, billsfan1959 said:

 

Good post. I will add the TE rankings from Football Outsiders (Knox ranked 8th in overall value):

 

 

For those unfamiliar with the categories:

 

DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the performance on plays where this TE caught the ball, compared to a replacement-level TE in the same game situations and then translated into yardage. YAR is related to DYAR, but isn't adjusted based on opponent

 

DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average TE in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance. VOA is related to DVOA, but isn't adjusted based on opponent

 

The simple version: DYAR means a tight end with more total value. DVOA means a tight end with more value per play.

 

Effective Yards (EYds) translate DVOA into a yards per attempt figure. This provides an easy comparison: in general, players with more Effective Yards than standard yards played better than standard stats would otherwise indicate

 

Catch Rate represents the percentage of passes to this receiver completed.

 

Of the top ten listed in the FO chart above, Knox had the 2nd fewest targets and receptions, but had the 2nd highest TD%.

 

I believe Knox was moving into the top tier of TEs in the league this year. I think he is one of the more physically gifted tight ends who was, arguabl much more raw coming out of college. I think he is going to really evolve into a top 5 TE this year. 

Thanks for the info.  TEs seem to be getting paid these days.  I see Knox as a guy who is in the fat part of the bell curve amongst TEs, but those guys are still getting surprisingly fat contracts.  From a value standpoint it makes sense that Knox does very well since he is on his rookie contract.  I’m a lot less excited about what that value would be if he was getting paid north of $10M/season.  We will have to wait and see the contract he gets and who signs him to it. 

 

Side note, my daughter has waited on him (restaurant) and said that he is very nice.

[auburnbillsbacker]

I think he would be much cheaper to re-sign now than after next season.  If he has another season similar to this season, he will get signed for a lot of cash.  Do the Bills have the cap space though?  

[MrEpsYtown]

I feel pretty strongly that this dude is going to be elite soon. He is already pretty much the best tight end we have ever had. 

 

It doesn't mean you don't keep looking, because this is the kind of guy someone offers an absurd contract to. Knox's first 3 years are on par with everything Hunter Henry was doing. 

[Einstein's Dog]

34 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Thanks for the info.  TEs seem to be getting paid these days.  I see Knox as a guy who is in the fat part of the bell curve amongst TEs, but those guys are still getting surprisingly fat contracts.  From a value standpoint it makes sense that Knox does very well since he is on his rookie contract.  I’m a lot less excited about what that value would be if he was getting paid north of $10M/season.  We will have to wait and see the contract he gets and who signs him to it. 

 

Side note, my daughter has waited on him (restaurant) and said that he is very nice.

I hope the FO is not taking the "wait and see" approach.  Pay the man, and pay him early.  It's the advantage you get from having drafted him.   The move is to ink your good draft picks a year early to market price deals.   The player likes it because they get big money a year early.  The team gets continuity and helps maintain/stregthen the culture.  Dawson is a keeper and the Bills FO needs to recognize it now.

 

And I think you should get over the sticker shock because TE's are already going north of $10M.  Jonnu and Hunter around $12M last year.  The market will be set for Knox with Schultz and Tonyan.  The Bills will need to be in that area and do it a year early so Knox never hits the open market.  

 

The FO has stated in the past, they like to sign their own.  Knox is in that wheelhouse.  Additionally, TEs take time to develop, you don't want to start from scratch again.  To me, it's a no-brainer to apply the FO principle to Knox, where it starts to get murky is with Edmunds and Singletary.

[Don Otreply]

On 2/7/2022 at 6:33 PM, recovery96 said:

This. He makes exceptional contested catches, he just isn’t fluid. Does anyone think he could have a ten catch 100 yd game? 

Does it matter when he is scoring TDs at that rate? And yes I think it’s easily doable, but who gets less targets to accomplish that? It’s kind of a problem that really isn’t a problem in the grand scheme of the offense. 

 

Go Bills!!!

[Governor]

Knox is right on schedule. TE’s don’t usually get going until year 4 and 5. He might be the only player on this team, other than Davis, that I would definitely not trade or release.

 

The rest are all replaceable 2 years from now.

[947]

I posted some harsh criticism on Knox prior to this season, and was annoyed when we cut Hollister with no proven TE on the roster. Knox made me eat my words. He's not only good enough, but he's the stud TE we've been looking for forever. I hope we do lock him up a year early.

[SirAndrew]

I think he’ll continue to improve if some slight adjustments are made to the offense. There’s talk about Knox being solely a big play guy, but some of that has to do with Daboll’s offense. We never utilized him in the way other tight ends are used these days. 

[njbuff]

How Njoku as a number two TE?

[filthymcnasty08]

Not sure why so many are placing such a huge importance on the #2 TE to the point where they want to spend to get one.

 

This offense features the slot role more so than 2 TE's going over the middle.

 

I can see it in the red zone or run/pass out of the 12 formation but would try that with a late draft pick or JAG at the tail of FA.

 

 

[Einstein's Dog]

46 minutes ago, filthymcnasty08 said:

Not sure why so many are placing such a huge importance on the #2 TE to the point where they want to spend to get one.

 

This offense features the slot role more so than 2 TE's going over the middle.

 

I can see it in the red zone or run/pass out of the 12 formation but would try that with a late draft pick or JAG at the tail of FA.

 

 

The TE2 spot is a big weakness. 

It's a long season and TE is a position that gets beat up.  People upstream were complaining about Knox in the Jax game - Knox wasn't ready, he was coming back from the hand injury too early because we had nothing behind him - Sweeney was a complete failure.

[filthymcnasty08]

27 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

The TE2 spot is a big weakness. 

It's a long season and TE is a position that gets beat up.  People upstream were complaining about Knox in the Jax game - Knox wasn't ready, he was coming back from the hand injury too early because we had nothing behind him - Sweeney was a complete failure.

Fair enough!  Good point.  I see some are ready to spend on Gisecki, Gronk, Ertz, etc.  Those are not cheap trinkets considering our cap and other needs.  

 

Gerald Everett is probably the more appropriate level imo.